EMIRI Tech Talk on Batteries for Energy Storage - Assessment of potential bottlenecks along the materials supply chain for the future deployment of low-carbon energy and transport technologies in the EU with a focus on batteries

1. 1 1
The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
'Bottleneck' materials for the
deployment of low-carbon
technologies in the EU
Dr. Vangelis Tzimas
Deputy Head of Unit
Knowledge for the Energy Union
23 February 2017, Brussels

2. 2
The EU Raw Materials Initiative (RMI)
Critical raw materials list
 Securing reliable and undistorted access of certain raw materials is
of growing concern within the EU and across the globe
 20 'critical raw materials' for the whole EU economy (2014 analysis)
CRITICALITY
MATRIX - 2014
Supplyrisk
Economic importance

3. 3
1 BEV battery:
9.5 kg Li
5.6 kg Co
29 kg Graphite
1 PHEV battery:
3 kg Li
2 kg Co
10 kg Graphite

4. 4
EU resilience to materials supply
a Low Carbon Technology deployment perspective
Bottlenecks
• Increasing material demand
• Competition - sectors and countries
• Concentration of supply
• Geopolitical risk
• Environmental constraints
• Geological/production constraints
• Import dependency (raw materials)
• Manufacturing capacity dependency
Mitigation measures
 Access to new resources:
- EU production
- Trade agreements
 EU manufacturing capacities
 Recycling
 Substitution

5. 5
New JRC study on bottleneck materials for
Wind, PV and EVs: 2030 timeframe
15 materials screened …
Batteries
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphite
Electric
motors
Neodymium
Praseodymium
Dysprosium
Turbines
Neodymium
Praseodymium
Dysprosium
Blades
Composites (CFC)
(criticality expected on
the manufacturing side
rather than raw
material side)
CIGS
PV Modules
Silicon
Silver
Copper
Indium
Gallium
Selenium
Cadmium
Tellurium
CdTe
c-Si

6. 6
EU resilience for wind technology - 2015
Downstream
(processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream
(mining/refining)
Nd, Pr, Dy
CFC
CFC
Nd, Pr, Dy
Wind Wind

7. 7
Downstream
(processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream
(mining/refining)
Ag
Si
Si
Ag
Photovoltaic Photovoltaic
In
In
EU resilience for PV technology - 2015

8. 8
Downstream
(processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream
(mining/refining)
Co graphite
Electric vehicles Electric vehicles
Li
Li, CoNd, Pr, Dy
graphite
Nd, Pr, Dy
EU resilience for EV technology - 2015

9. 9
JRC methodology
EU resilience
assessment
Upstream
dimension
(D1)
Downstream
dimension
(D2)
D1.1 Material demand
D1.2 Investment potential
D1.3 Stability of supply
D1.4 Reserves depletion
D1.5 Import reliance
D1.6 Supply adequacy
D1.7 Recycling
D1.8 Substitution
D2.1 Supply chain dependency
D2.2 Purchasing potential
D2.3 Material cost impact
Materials
supply chain

10. 10
Upstream Dimension (D1)
DownstreamDimension(D2)
• Boosting EU raw
materials production
• Recycling
• Substitution
Resilience chart
Mitigation measures

11. 11
Wind technology
current situation
• Today the EU is highly
vulnerable to supply
chain bottlenecks for rare
earths used for magnets
in wind turbines
• High resilience for carbon
fibre composites (CFCs)
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Wind technology - current situation

12. 12
Wind technology 2030
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
Wind technology - 2030

13. 13
PV technology
current situation
No strong concerns for PV
materials!
In
Ag Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te
PV technology - current situation

14. 14
PV technology 2030
In
Ag Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te In
Ag
Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
PV technology - 2030

15. 15
Electric Vehicles
516 2528 831
13313
24941
65226
120416
21450
39599
Cobalt Graphite Lithium Cobalt Graphite Lithium
2015 2030
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
EUdemand(tonnes)
Values 2015 
ERERT* scenario 2030 
Tech 3** scenario 2030 
Materials demand in LIB for electric vehicles
* ERERT - European Roadmap Electrification of Road Transport
** Tech 3 - EC project: "EU transport GHG: Routes to 2050"
BEV PHEV
60000 90000
1.5 mil. 2.3 mil.
2.4 mil. 5.6 mil.
EV market and materials demand

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LithiumGlobal Lithium production

17. 17
CobaltGlobal Cobalt production (refined)

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Global Graphite production

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Supply chain dependency for EVs

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• The demand for Li, Co and
graphite for EV may increase 25
times even under a
conservative deployment
scenario. Under more optimistic
deployment scenario the
demand might rise up to 45
times!
• The EU is heavily dependent on
import of all three raw
materials.
• The EU is strongly dependent
on manufacturing capacities
downstream: some limited
electrode materials production
and no cell manufacturing in the
EU.
Battery materials: Key messages

21. 21
EV technology
current situation
• Rare earths in magnets for
electric traction motors
and graphite for
rechargeable batteries are
at risk of supply
• Lithium and cobalt:
borderline
Nd Dy Pr
C
Li Co
EV technology - current situation

22. 22
EV technology 2030
Li, Co, C
Nd Dy Pr Nd Dy Pr
Li Co
C
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
EV technology - 2030

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The EU is vulnerable to supply bottlenecks of several key materials
needed in wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicle technologies.
Unless mitigation measures are taken, the EU resilience to potential
supply issues will deteriorate by 2030.
Conclusions

24. 24
Thank you!Thank you!