2. Weekly Markets
Perspectives
September 10th, 2012
.
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3. ECB – “The Euro is Irreversible”
-Draghi announced the Outright Monetary -Draghi told that in case a country starts deviating
Transactions Program (OMT). Within it, the ECB will from the Program signed with the Rescue Funds,
define a target to Yields and if that value is exceed the ECB might start selling bonds, increasing the
they will intervene buying bonds on secondary costs of funding of the country.
market. To apply to the program, each country
needs to implement reforms ands define financial
targets.
-Bonds will have a maturity between 1 and 3 years,
to guarantee that the ECB isn’t financing a State as it
goes against its mandate.
-The purchases will be revealed on a weekly basis,
to maintain transparency.
-The ECB won’t have seniority against other
investors on these bonds.
4. The Eurozone will continue Greece: Are you going to get
contracting kicked from Eurozone?
-The ECB revised its growth forecasts for the
Eurozone from -0,1% to -0,4% in 2012, and from 1% -Schäuble told in a Press Conference after a meeting
to 0,5% in 2013. with the Greek Finance Minister that the country
will only receive the next tranche if Troika’s report
reveals that Greece has been implementing the
Eurozone: GDP Growth austerity measures designed.
3,20%
2,90%
2,00%
1,70%
1,40%
0,30% 0,50%
-0,40%
-4,40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5. Spain – You don’t have any alternatives
-Andalusia asked for a bailout of €1B from the
Government. It was the 4th region after Valencia,
Murcia and Catalonia. Over 60% from the €18B
capacity of the Regional Rescue Fund was already
spent with just these 4 regions.
-After the announcement of the OMT Program,
Spain’s Prime Minister told that his government will
study if a bailout will be advantageous for Spain. Olli
Rehn thinks that Spain shouldn’t wait any longer,
and should apply for a bailout.
-So, how long will Spain wait until asks for a bailout?
6. Europe – The Outlook isn’t getting any better
PMI Manufacturing PMI Services
70 70
60 60
50 50
Germany Germany
40 40
France France
30 30
Italy Italy
20 Eurozone 20 Eurozone
10 UK 10 UK
0 0
7. US – The QE3 is getting closer after this week data
-Manufacturing Data got its worst value since 2009. -Non-Farm Payrolls provided another sign that the
economy isn’t boosting.
ISM Manufacturing Change in Non-Farm Payrolls
63 275
259
60 223
202
57 157
143 141
112
54 87 96
68
51 45
49,6
48
8. Weekly Preview
Europe The most important events should be the Germany’s Constitutional Court decision over ESM,
Parliamentary Elections in Holland, a decision over Greece by Troika and any new details about
the start of the OMT Program by the ECB. We should follow closely Spain, as the country might
be close of asking for a bailout and qualifying for the Program.
US The FOMC Meeting might be crucial for the Markets Performance over the next weeks. The
announcement of a QE3 is expected. It will be published economic data on the country, where
we should focus on inflation, retail sales, industrial production and consumer confidence.
Rest of All eyes are above China after economic data that continues to point to a slowdown of the
the economy.
World
9. Weekly Preview
Market Indicators
We remain positive for the markets, but there are some risks that can prompt them to fall.
Vicious Cycle of Europe. We are currently on level 2. 2Y Bond Yields: Spread VS
Germany
7,00
6,00
5,00
4,00 Spa in
Ita ly
3,00
2,70
2,00 2,21
1,00
Ma r-12 Apr-12 Ma y-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
CBOE PutCall Ratio
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,59
0,4
0,2
0
10. Weekly Preview
Ideas for the week: Portugal
BES: Buy at the market, stop-loss at 0,65€. Reasons to buy:
- The markets are rallying, due to the OMT from the ECB. As this Program will prompt to fall the Yields of
Government Bonds from countries that asked for assistance, the price of these securities will rise. As we
know, Portuguese Banks as BES are largely exposed to Portuguese Government Bonds.
- The markets risks are falling, and with it the costs of financing of these companies. For a Bank from a
peripheral country as BES, these are really good news.
- From the major Banks in Portugal, this was the only who didn’t require any assistance from the Portuguese
State for its recapitalization.
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Disclaimer
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