This document summarizes a talk given on the implications of Brexit for the UK food system. The speaker argues that Brexit represents major food policy change for the UK as it exits the Common Agricultural Policy and European food regulations after 50 years. It occurs as evidence mounts for the need to change the global food system to address environmental, health, social and economic challenges. The speaker outlines risks from Brexit both to the UK food system and to progressive food policy agendas. Three potential scenarios for the UK food system post-Brexit are discussed: remaining in a reformed EU, a bespoke relationship with the EU, or becoming a global trader relying on WTO rules. The speaker's priorities in navigating Brexit include sustainable food production and

1. 1
First it’s exit the corn laws (1846);
then it’s Brexit (2016);
now what?
Tim Lang
Centre for Food Policy, City University London
t.lang@city.ac.uk
Food Thinkers, Food Research Collaboration, London, October 26, 2016
www.foodresearch.org.uk

2. Talk summary
• Brexit is ‘big league’ food policy change
– Corn Laws 1846, WW1, WW2, joining CAP
• It comes just when evidence for food system
change was overwhelming
– Environment, health, socio-culture, economics
• Risks from Brexit and to Brexiters
• Risks to progressive food agenda
– Can we get a Great Transition not an erosion?
• Cool heads + firm resolve + narrative needed
2

3. Quick take 1:
where we are
• Signals in the ‘phoney war’
• Contradictory narratives
• Risks from Brexit
• Risks to Brexiters
• Risks to progressive agenda
3

4. Quick take 2:
where we could be
• What food system ought to be
• Need for integrationist framework
• Institutional structures
• Brexit is a disruptive opportunity
4

5. Quick take 3:
Priorities
• SDG2
strategy:
– Sustainable Diets from a (more)
Sustainable Food System
• Modernising food democracy
(food power)
• Narrowing food inequalities
• Decent jobs and wages
• Continue improving UK food 5

6. Brexit in context
Some background
6

7. This is major food system change
• Serious change after 50 yrs European linkage:
– 1966-73 negotiations; ‘73 entry; ‘75 referendum
• Corn Laws 1846 (after 20+ yrs):
– Cheap food policy; agric decline; Empire
• World War 1 & 2:
– Submarines; insecurity; weak UK;
• Post WW2 reconstruction:
– global, Europe, UK  UK 1947 Agric Act, etc etc
– UK in decline – loss of Empire, identity?
• GATT  WTO: 1987-94
– Codex Alimentarius Commission as arbiter
7

8. Hot Springs
Conference 1943
source: LSE digital library (a)
photo: UK delegation; (b) drawing
of Lionel Robbins; US cartoon from
Lynchberg News 23.5.1943
8

9. Food architects: Linking food, health, work,
income & justice
John Boyd Orr
(1880-1971)
public health researcher
1st
D-G of FAO
Sicco Mansholt
(1908-1995)
1st
European Agriculture
Commissioner for 1958-1972

10. Political pressures from
Food Brexit
UK society
UK food system
Facing C21st
challenges
10

11. Immediate political pressures
• Tensions ‘consumers’ vs ‘voters’:
– migrants, prices, holidays, culture, control.
• Timing:
– Speed; MS elections; £-$-€ effects
• Global crowded space:
– EU 27, G20, TTIP, CETA
– MidEast, resources (eg phosphates Morocco 75%)
• EU pressures:
– DGs Sante & Agri want it over speedily
– Others want to use Brexit for reform: Visigrad Grp11

12. Political Economy of Food
• Divided UK:
– London = 25%, areas in EU fund receipt voted out,
• Economy after 40 yrs of neo-liberalism
• UK food in decline:
– 61% self-sufficient and dropping
– Food Trade Gap risen to £21bn
• Cheap food
• Big health bill
12

13. Europe in some disarray?
• Decades of anti-europeanisation
• Inept handling of migration, despite it
being a priority for EU
• Decades of expansion slowing?
– Case of Turkey?
13

14. The policy language
Control
Freedom
14

15. Brexit discourse (in part)
Issue specifics Debate ranges from….. …. To…
Brexit Process Article 50 start-date Soon Delayed
Process itself Quick Protracted
Outcome 2 years on ‘Hard’ exit, ie total exit ‘soft’ exit ie new mix
Managing the process Uncertainty Opportunism
Brexit Agenda Labour movement
within EU
Quotas /points Open labour deal
Migration beyond EU Repatriation, controls, quotas Desirable, amnesty, racist
Finance City of London passport City goes non-EU global
Culture British above all New globalism
Democracy External facing Intra-UK restructuring (UK break-
up? Or more devolution Cities?)
Governance Taking back control New era of intergovernmental
negotiation (WTO = 164 MS)
Food System impact Endgame Business-as-usual food
system
More sustainable food system
Farming Still subsidised No subsidy for farming per se
(perhaps for ecosystems
services)
Efficiency Disruption Productivity incentive
Cost of food Still ‘cheap’ More expensive
Food flow / availability Loss of fresh food from EU Rebirth of UK horticulture and
primary production
Consumer contentment High visibility of ‘taking back
control’
Triumph for Big Food Business
Food and healthcare NHS has more money(?) Prevention of diet-related ill-health
Food inequalities Ignored / invisible Will widen / hit the poor 15

16. State of UK food
Some key statistics
The country doesn’t feed itself
The food trade gap is wide (£21bn)
Currency rates matter (if you buy/sell)
16

17. Dollar or Euro: which will UK use for food?
Volatility: € rises, £
falls (2013-16)
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-
10-04/pound-tumbles-to-three-decade-low-as-
angst-over-brexit-persists 17
The long view:
1848 to 2016
Financial Times, October 12 2016,
https://www.ft.com/content/78478eee-e170-
32d3-bdbb-b88a98f2f9bd
17% drop in £ to $
since Brexit

18. Where UK food comes from
Source: Defra Food Stats Pocketbook 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/food-statistics-pocketbook
18

19. Huge
Food
Trade Gap
source: Defra Food Stats
Pocketbook 2016
https://www.gov.uk/government/c
ollections/food-statistics-
pocketbook
19
• Trade deficit of £21 bn (2015).. .and steadily widening..
• Beverages in surplus “largely due to Scotch Whisky”
• Fruit & Veg imports £9.1bn; exports £1 bn; gap=£8.1bn
– 2 EU countries account for 69% of all Veg imports; 4 countries for 44% of Fruit imports
• Massive meat imports
Note: Current Government policy is simply to export more

20. UK
food
chain
2015chart 14.2 p98 Defra
Agriculture in UK 2015
https://www.gov.uk/govern
ment/statistics/agriculture-
in-the-united-kingdom-
2015
Note:
1. UK food has gross
value added of £105bn
2. Farming gets c8.5% of
GVA
20

21. Lots of land but mostly grass
21

22. Source: Defra horticulture statistics July 2016
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/540165/hort-report-22jul16a.pdf
22

23. Food trade gap Note the £bn vs £m
23
Source: Defra horticulture statistics July 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/540165/hort-report-
22jul16a.pdf

24. The realities
Disruption and deviation
Complexity of negotiations
24

25. How will Brexit affect existing
food system dynamics?
• Historical legacy:
– pursuit of ‘cheap’, urbanism, off-land power
• Post WW2 food revolution:
– Inputs vs farm vs Manuf vs retail vs foodservice
– Power and money share
• Rise of consumerism:
– food  other spending
• Counter forces:
– Enviro + health + animals + localism + int justice25

26. Planetary Boundaries already exceeded?
Source: Steffen et al. 2015. Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a
changing planet, Nature, 347, 6223
26

27. Whitehall’s food brexit in-tray
• EU inheritance
– Scale of EU Food Law
– Multi MS food institutions: EFSA, DG Sante,
WTO negotiations, etc
– European Parliament co-responsibility
• How to address this?
– New Food Law (England only?)
– Weak Codex Alimentarius (created 1963, GATT
1994)
27

28. Key institutions to replace
• Council of Ministers
• European Parliament
• European Commission
• DG Environment
• DG Sante
• DG Trade
• DG Research & Innovation
• EFSA
• Fd & Vet Office (now
Health & Food Audit)
• Rapid Alert System
• Euro Medicines Agency
• Joint Research Centre
Etc.
28

29. Sensitive issues at stake
Across entire food supply chain
At time of UK state cuts!
29

30. Sensitive issues at stake
30

31. SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK ‘partner’ UK OPTIONS
(realistic)
Fisheries /
Sea
Fisheries Common Fisheries
Policy
Defra / Wales,
Scottish, N Ireland
governments
Reclaim fishing
rights; go line fishing
only?
Inland seafood (mussel
and oyster farming etc.)
Water quality control Defra / Wales,
Scottish, N Ireland
governments
Expand industries
(employment)
Agriculture Farmland Directives on water,
biodiversity (not one
on soil!)
Defra / Wales,
Scottish, N Ireland
governments
Retain or translate
into new UK law
Subsidies CAP subsidies HM Treasury Repeal / Reduce/
Retain/ Refine
Labour (seasonal +
specialist eg dairy
managers)
Free movement within
MS
Defra and BIS Renew SAWS;
training;
Agrichemicals Regulated Defra Go organic; LEAF or
intensify
GM EU legislation 2001ff Defra Repeal / Retain /
Refine
Veterinarians EU regulated;
membership of Food
& Veterinary Office
Defra; Dept Health;
Public Health
England
New audit function
needed
Animal health EU Animal Health
Law 2015
Defra; Dept Health;
Public Health
England
Opportunity to
tighten standards?
Antimicrobials EU role currently
weak
Defra; Public Health
England
UK could set
tougher controls on
farm use 31

32. SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK ‘partner’ UK OPTIONS
(realistic)
Food
manufacture
Abattoirs Meat inspection
toughened post BSE /
Food Safety White
Paper 2000
Defra; Public Health
England
Invest in new localised
system? retain or
translate inspections
into UK law
Additives Approval system FSA and DH Repeal / Retain / Refine
or translate to UK law
Residues &
contaminants
EU fixes all Maximum
Residue Limits
FSA, DH & Defra Repeal / Retain / Refine
or translate to UK law
Nutrition & health
claims
Food Regulations eg
public register
Defra; Public Health
England
Repeal / Retain / Refine
Food labelling Food labelling Regs
2014
Defra; Public Health
England; Dept for
Business, Energy &
Industrial Strategy
Retain / refine
Rapid Alert
System for Food
& Feed
EU MS food safety
collaboration, eg recalls
Defra; Public Health
England; Dept for
Business, Energy &
Industrial Strategy
New infrastructure?
Food law
enforcement
UK system of
Environmental Health
Practitioners (EHP) sits
alongside continental
use of veterinarians
Defra; Public Health
England; Dept for
Business, Energy &
Industrial Strategy
UK to revert to EHP
only?
32

33. 33

34. 34

35. Cross-cutting issues
Economics
Research
Governance and law
35

36. Cross-cutting issues: examples
SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK OPTIONS
Economics Internal Market Single Market 1992 Pay to stay in but out;
drawbridge; sector by sector
agreements (eg City/Finance
‘in’; food ‘out’?)
Harmonisation of
services
Free movement of services,
public procurement,
professional qualifications,
industrial property,
Likely to be part of package
above
Economic
concentration and
market power
Competition on EU basis Redraw geographical
boundaries for markets
Food Waste Circular economy action
plan 2015
Continue? expand?
Research EU research Eligibility to Horizon 2020
and Joint Research
Centre;
Exclusion from EU research
partnerships; or membership
Big Data EU Digital Single Market
Digital market Digital Single Market 2016 Maintain EU ‘follow the money’
principle OR revert to WTO
baseline
36

37. Cross-cutting issues (cont)
SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK OPTIONS
Legal Intellectual Property Rights IPR Directives 2004 and
2016
WIPO?
Public sector contracts EU policy on tendering UK system or DAs?
Governance Health and Food Audits Co-ordinated by DG Health
& Food Safety on all MS
(formerly known as Food &
Veterinary Office)
UK sets up its own
scheme, but done by
whom?
Devolved administrations Committee of the Regions
created in 1994;
collaboration of Mayors etc;
Principles of Subsidiarity
and Proportionality ratified
by Lisbon Treaty
more devolved food
powers?
Parliamentary oversight Euro Parliament has
standing committees; some
in parallel to UK
committees.
Reform UK committees
around whichever
general Brexit framework
emerges (WTO as
baseline)
37

38. Whitehall food realities
• Apply a ‘Star Chamber’ ‘7 Rs rule’?
– Retain, Reduce, Replace, Reform, Refine, Reject,
Redirect
• Institutional weakness:
– Already buying in ‘advisors’:
• Sir Jeremy Heywood talks to EY, McKinsey, KPMG etc
– A ‘new’ centralisation:
• i.e. duplicate Brussels in London
– More decentralisation:
• more powers to DAs, City Regionalism?
38

39. Scenarii
Lang & Schoen 2016 had 7; now see 3
1. Reformed EU
2. Bespoke relationship (EEA+)
3. Global trader (WTO baseline)
http://foodresearch.org.uk/food-and-brexit/
39

40. Choices, choices:
the food politics of Food Brexit… as if…
• …as if citizens, health, environment, justice
were top priorities?
• …as if evidence matters?
• …as if Sustainable Development Goals
matter?
• …as if cheap food is what matters? (1846)
• …as if Big Food interests matter?
• …as if narrowing inequalities came top?
40

41. 1. Stay in (reformed) EU
• Likelihood:
– 1% chance on June 24; 5% in Oct?
– may not be if EU politics trembles in 2017ff
• eg … if a radical shift on migration occurs.
• What it means:
– Heavy politics, shift in middle ground
• Events:
– UK election 2020 (earlier?), 2 years of big politics
– Depends on EU MS elections: Italy 2016, Fr & G
2017, Sp 2017?
41

42. 2. Bespoke EU-UK ‘special
food relationship’
• Likelihood:
– less than 30% chance
– Favoured by City interests, and 48% Remainers
• What it means:
– Years of negotiations, Customs Union case by case
• Events:
– Mrs May hint (Oct 24 ‘16
– But conflict of freedom of movement of goods and
people (Juncker’s warnings, Sept 14, ‘16)
42

43. 3. Global trader
• Likelihood:
• most likely 75%; favoured by hard Brexiters
• What it means:
• WTO baseline, Codex replaces EU, pick/mix deals
• Fruit &lamb from USA and Aus/NZ again? Scottish?
• Events:
• do a New Zealand: cut subsidies, ignore small
farms, import more
• will the old Empire/Commonwealth food
provisioners welcome the UK back?
43

44. Making the best of Frexit
Our priorities
Role of academics and CSOs
Unholy alliances
Information flow
44

45. My priorities (3 mins with Minister)
• Food Production
– Rebuild home growing, less intensive, more agro-ecology,
more horticulture, less food imperialism (others’ land),
• Sustainable diets
– More equal food, narrow gastronomes vs low income diets,
low impact (not just CO2e), reverse obesity, rein in Big
Food, higher paid food labour, less waste
• Food democracy
– institutional reforms, English regionalism, city regions, local
identity
= SDG2
strategy:
– sustainable diets from sustainable food systems45

46. 46
Thanks!
t.lang@city.ac.uk