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Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles

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These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how autonomous vehicles are becoming economic feasible. They are becoming economically feasible because the cost of lasers, ICs, MEMS, and other electronic components are falling at 25 to 40% per year. If the cost of autonomous vehicles fall 25% a year, the cost of the electronics associated with autonomous vehicles will fall 90% in 10 years. Dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles is necessary to achieve the most benefits from autonomous vehicles. While using autonomous vehicles in combination with conventional vehicles can free drivers for other activities, dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles can dramatically reduce congestion, increase speeds, and thus increase the number of cars per area of the road. They can also reduce accidents, insurance, and the number of traffic police. These slide discuss a number of technologies that can be used for the dedicated roads including wireless communication, magnetic stripes and RFIDs that together can coordinate vehicles on roads. The slides end by summarizing efforts in Singapore.

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Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles

  1. 1. MT5009: Dedicated Roads for Autonomous Vehicles Team Members: Chang Poo Hee - Chin Mei Yin - Lin Rong Bin - Lua Xiang Lian - Tee Kim Chuan
  2. 2. Overview Introduction Concepts of Dedicated Road Technologies for Dedicated Road Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Entrepreneurial Opportunities
  3. 3. Introduction -What are AVs? – The Need for Dedicated Roads for AVs -
  4. 4. Introduction Autonomous Vehicles Self-Driving, Driver-free Cars Fulfils transportation capabilities of a traditional car AV senses environment with Radar Lidar GPS Computer Vision
  5. 5. Road Congestion High Mobility Ref: Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution by KPMG, 2012 Cost Safety Human Toll Demographic Trends Running Out of Space The Need of Dedicated Road for AVs Growing Population More vehicles Road Congestion Maximize road capacity High Vehicle Cost (US21K~US$40K) Less Usage (Unused avg. 22Hrs/day in 5 years) High Infra. Cost. New: US$8~12M/mile Main: US$1.25M/mile) Low Productivity (Total Hrs spent on road 250hrs /year) Distraction (accounted for 21% crashes) High economic cost US$300 Billion p.a. Mobility challenges (older drivers those with disabilities) Change in perception Shared!!!! Accidents Deaths 32,788 deaths, 2.2 millions injury 93% human errors Population density (1 car for 2.4 to 1 car for 1.2 people) Lack of parking lots / garages Introduction
  6. 6. Where ARE we now? Introduction Ref: http://future-observatory.blogspot.sg/2014/01/fully-self-driving-cars-expected-by.html
  7. 7. Concepts of Dedicated Roads V2V –V2I – Platooning – SMART Traffic Management Systems
  8. 8. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART What is V2V V2I ? V2V : Vehicle to Vehicle V2I : Vehicle to Infrastructure
  9. 9. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Communication Technologies for Car
  10. 10. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Why Communicating Vehicles ? Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
  11. 11. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Why Communicating Vehicles ? Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
  12. 12. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Applications Vehicles exchange information to determine location, speed and heading Forward collision warning Emergency electronic brake light Blind spot / Lane change warning Do not pass warning Intersection movement assist Left turn assist Infrastructure sends situation to vehicles to allow mapping of intersection, signal phase and signal change timing Curve speed warning Red light violation warning Transit pedestrian detection Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
  13. 13. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART What is Platooning ? The goal of vehicle platoon control is to ensure that all the vehicles move in the same lane at the same speed with desired inter-vehicle distances. Types of Platooning Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC)
  14. 14. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Functions of Vehicle Platooning Longitudinal Control • Speed • Distance Lateral Control • Lane Tracking • Lane Changing Maneuver Coordination • Platoon Formation • Platoon Split
  15. 15. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) Ref: http://openroadautogroup.com/blog/active-cruise-control-systems
  16. 16. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) uses V2V communication to provide enhanced information to the ACC controller so that vehicles can follow each other automatically with higher accuracy, faster response, shorter gaps, enhanced traffic flow stability and possibly improved safety. Ref: http://openroadautogroup.com/blog/active-cruise-control-systems
  17. 17. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Smart Traffic Management System
  18. 18. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Smart Traffic Management System Smart Traffic Management System is an intelligent transportation system that comprises of data collection and processing through DSRC for users, roads and vehicles Allow vehicles / infrastructure to communicate and respond Enhance mobility, reduce emissions and fuel consumption, improve safety and economic competitiveness Elimination of traffic lights via Intersection movement assist More funding is being dedicated to traffic management system to help address growing demand for transportation assets without making major new capital investments. Ref: http://www.navigantresearch.com/blog/smart-transportation-systems-still-a-good-bet-in-tough-times-2
  19. 19. Concepts: V2V V2I – Platooning – SMART Smart Traffic Management System Less Traffic light delays: From 100% human to fully autonomous Higher Speeds and Fuel Efficiencies: By dedicating roads to AVs Less congestion Denser cities lower energy expenditures Reduce accidents Fuel savings by vehicle spacing and platoon size of Buick LeSabres (1999 field tests), and of minivans derived from wind tunnel drag Ref: Intellimotion, Research Updates in Intelligent Transportation Systems Volume 9 No. 2 2000 Advances in Performance Measurement (Website: http://www.path.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/documents/Intellimotion%209-2%202.pdf) A multiagent Approach to Autonomous Intersection Management. Kurt Dresner and Peter Stone, 2008
  20. 20. Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Roads Concepts Communication – Computation – Localization
  21. 21. Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Road Concepts Communication Technology Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Infrastructure Data Networks Computation Technology Video Recognition In-Vehicle Computing Localization Technology Radar Radio-Frequency Identification Magnets
  22. 22. Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Road Concepts Overview Computation (Camera In vehicle computing) Localization (Rader, RFID Magnets) Communication (DSRC Infrastructure data network)
  23. 23. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Wireless Access for Vehicular Environments (WAVE) Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communication enable autonomous driving in dedicated lanes V2V: vehicles communication directly with neighbouring vehicles V2I: two vehicles communicate indirectly by infrastructure Infrastructure can include buildings or roadside units (RSU) or lamp poles, traffic lights, gantries, etc. Communications can be done via wireless, satellite and cellular. However, focus will be made on wireless communication mode – DSRC where telematics need to be embedded in the vehicle for communication to take place
  24. 24. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) DSRC Performance Envelopes IEEE802.11P ~ 5.9GHz Vehicular Communication Network 75MHz Spectrum ADVANTAGE: No interference from “Data Transfer and Internet Access Services” allow overlapping communication zones Existing DSRC network 12MHz Spectrum DISADVANTAGE: No protection, allowing interference from other “Data Transfer and Internet Access Services” only allow 1 communication zone at any point of time Ref: http://groups.engin.umd.umich.edu/vi/w5_workshops/guo_DSRC.pdf
  25. 25. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Requirements for DSRC Changes will need to be made in IEEE 802.11 standards Give raise to IEEE 802.11p Support longer range of operations High speed of vehicles Extreme multipath environment Need for multiple overlapping ad-hoc networks to operate with extremely high quality of service Nature of automotive applications to be supported Ref: http://www.academia.edu/6055445/Intelligent_Transportation_Systems_Wireless_Access_for_Vehicular_Environments_WAVE
  26. 26. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) DSRC protocols defined by IEEE 802.11p and IEEE 1609 standards for wireless access in vehicular environments – Vehicular Communication System DSRC based intelligent transport system can be done with a network of Road Side Equipment (RSE) and On Board Equipment (OBE) mounted in vehicles A dedicated spectrum that allow vehicular communication to be done safely avoiding interruption from other traffic signals in the network Ref: http://adrianlatorre.com/projects/pfc/img/vanet_full.jpg http://www.atip.org/atip_content/download_root/ATIP%20Reports/1998/AP98080R.HTM
  27. 27. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Distance vs. DSRC Signal Strength Performance RSE should be placed within a gap of 300m in order for DSRC to achieve maximum performance in V2V and V2I Within 300m, 5.9GHz DSRC signal is strong Beyond 300m, the signal weakens and becomes unstable Street lights along the road could serve as RSE Ref: http://www.itsasiapacificforum2014.co.nz/files/5314/0192/3941/Vehicle-to-Vehicle_and_Vehicle-to- Infrastructure_Trial_with_Dedicated_Short_Range_Communication_5.9GHz_in_Singapore_by_Musthafa_Ibrahaim.pdf
  28. 28. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) DSRC for Active Safety Applications Ref: http://www.pcb.its.dot.gov/eprimer/module13p.aspx
  29. 29. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Steps to Kick Start Autonomous Vehicles in Dedicated Lanes DSRC – IEEE 802.11p is needed to have a cooperative, active safety system Dedicated 5.9GHz Multiple overlapping of communication zones Longer range of communications Short latency Government to provide the roadside infrastructure DSRC transceiver to be embedded in vehicle
  30. 30. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) Potential Market Forecast of DSRC Potential Cost Forecast of DSRC Global Growth Forecast for Embedded Vehicular Telematics 17 times Ref: http://www.gsma.com/connectedliving/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/gsma2025everycarconnected.pdf Cost to Install Embedded Telematics in Vehicles (including DSRC and Connected Vehicle Technology Required http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mdot/09-27-2012_Connected_Vehicle_Technology_-_Industry_Delphi_Study_401329_7.pdf 65% drop
  31. 31. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Infrastructure Data Networks Huge amounts of Data handling V2I communications High performance of networking needed
  32. 32. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Infrastructure Data Networks Networking Trends Bandwidth Improvements Over Time Lower Latency Ref: http://www.automotiveworld.com/megatrends-articles/ethernet-fast-track-connected-car/ http://dupress.com/articles/from-exponential-technologies-to-exponential-innovation/ http://www.bomara.com/Garrett/wp_traffic_control.htm Cost Decreasing
  33. 33. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization In IJCNN 2011, German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark Video Recognition Machine can recognise traffic signs at better standards than average human! Ref: Man vs. Computer: Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms for Traffic Sign Recognition J. Stallkampa, M. Schlipsinga, J. Salmena, C. Igelb
  34. 34. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Video Recognition Deep Learning-Requires Very intensive machine computation! In 2012, Google used Deep learning with 16,000 processors(cost US$ 1 million ) to recognise cats from YouTube Videos. Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/technology/in-a-big-network-of-computers-evidence-of-machine-learning.html?pagewanted=all_r=0
  35. 35. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Cost of computing is going down Video recognition is expected to improve its accuracy along with cheaper computing Video Recognition
  36. 36. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Cloud-Based Routing System A centralised management system Predicts transportation needs on various conditions Learns from previous events that affects traffic flow During times of excess road demand, a routing system will divert traffic to other roads with excess capacity. Many developing algorithms for traffic network optimisation such as one described in “ Fast model predictive control for urban road networks via MILP” by S Lin Ref: https://www.behance.net/gallery/2422404/Autonomo-2030-Concept-The-Details http://www.dcsc.tudelft.nl/~bdeschutter/pub/rep/11_001.pdf
  37. 37. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization In-Vehicle Computing Platform • Connected AVs will send and receive more sensor and communication data • More data for in-vehicle computing to handle Ref: http://www.nexcom.com/applications/DetailByDivision/on-road-vehicle-computing-solutions
  38. 38. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Rates of Improvement of Computing Moore’s Law: No. of transistor in hardware ↑ Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer Speed of Calculation ↑ Cost of Computing ↓
  39. 39. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radar long range radar medium range radar short range radar adaptive cruise control (77GHz) side impact assistance blind spot detection collision avoidance auto-parking
  40. 40. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radar What are the components in radar system? Mostly Electronics! Ref: http://www.ifp.illinois.edu/~varshney/cornell/publications/radar%20system%20components%20and%20system%20design.pdf
  41. 41. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radar
  42. 42. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radar Trends of Automotive Radar Higher Frequency Radar Chips(79 GHz band) More reliable higher resolution Much smaller antenna Lower risk of mutual interference Declining costs Reducing cost of chips Now cost about $100 Ref: https://itunews.itu.int/en/3935-Future-trends-for-automotive-radars-Towards-the-79GHz-band.note.aspx http://www.wireless-mag.com/Features/30286/advanced-radar-the-car-industry%E2%80%99s-autonomous-future.aspx
  43. 43. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization How about LIDAR? GPS? Others We will present on other technological alternatives…
  44. 44. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Localization Technology in Harsher Environment Rain Tunnel Snow Fog Where am I ? Where to Go? No signals Multipath Propagation
  45. 45. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Volvo’s project uses small magnets (40x15mm) embedded 200mm under the road surface Car fitted with magnetic field sensors Communicates to AVs where the road is and where it is going “The magnets create an invisible 'railway' that literally paves the way for a positioning inaccuracy of less than one decimeter. We have tested the technology at a variety of speeds and the results so far are promising,” says Jonas Ekmark, preventive safety leader at Volvo Car Group. Source: http://www.gizmag.com/volvo-road-magents-autonomous-cars/31172/ Magnets
  46. 46. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Magnets Advantages Especially good at identifying lane division under debris (e.g.mud, snow, etc) Can be used for safety (e.g. lane markings) and automatic switch for activating car’s safety system off-road GPS- and camera-based systems have far more potential for general-purpose location-awareness, navigational, parking and collision-avoidance systems, but are severely limited in poor visibility and at very close distances. Poor weather or poor light can impinge on a camera's performance, whereas a GPS system can lose the signal. Magnets are also better than reflectors or other surface-mounted vison-assisting road decorations because they can be mounted flush or even underneath a thin layer of asphalt, and let road designers be far more precise in defining lane boundaries.
  47. 47. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Cost Vehicle Sensor rig = $109 (at production scale of 50,000 units) Highway infrastructure = $22,179/km Total Cost of Implementation is about $183 million Volvo tested their sensor system at speeds of up to 90 mph. Source: http://www.wired.com/2014/03/volvo-magnets-autonomous/ Magnets
  48. 48. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Infrastructure Cost Magnets Types of Roads Length (Km) Cost ($) Total 3,453 76,584,087 Expressways 164 3,637,356 Arterial Roads 662 14,682,498 Collector Roads 571 12,664,209 Local Access Roads 2,055 45,577,845
  49. 49. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Vehicle Modification Cost Magnets Types of Vehicles No. of Vehicles Cost Total 969,910 $ 105,720,190 Cars (includes private and company cars) 605,149 $ 65,961,241 Rental Cars 14,862 $ 1,619,958 Taxis 28,210 $ 3,074,890 Buses 17,162 $ 1,870,658 Motorcycles Scooters 144,110 $ 15,707,990 Goods Other Vehicles 160,417 $ 17,485,453
  50. 50. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Frequency Ranges 1) Low-frequency (30 KHz to 500 KHz) 2) Mid-Frequency (900KHz to 1500MHz) 3) High Frequency (2.4GHz to 2.5GHz) Components A basic RFID system consists of three components: Host System ( Transceiver with decoder) An antenna or coil (Reader) A transponder (RF tag)
  51. 51. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) http://www.ibtechnology.co.uk/rfidanswers.htm
  52. 52. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Operation Modes Passive • Also called ‘pure passive’, ‘reflective’ or ‘beam powered’ • Obtains operating power from the reader • The reader sends electromagnetic waves that induce current in the tag’s antenna, the tag reflects the RF signal transmitted and adds information by modulating the reflected signal Semi-passive • Uses a battery to maintain memory in the tag or power the electronics that enable the tag to modulate the reflected signal • Communicates in the same method, as the other passive tags Active • Powered by an internal battery, used to run the microchip’s circuitry and to broadcast a signal to the reader • Generally ensures a longer read range than passive tags • More expensive than passive tags (especial because usually are read/write) • The batteries must be replaced periodically
  53. 53. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Rates of Improvement of RFID for Tag Range VS. Chip Power Sensitivity (Year 1997 – 2011)
  54. 54. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Cost RFID Tag = $0.50 Infrastructure Cost = $2,500/km (Assuming 5 RFID tags are required for every metre) RFID Reader = $100 (Based on Mid Frequency Readers) Total Cost of Implementation is about $106 million Source: http:///sunxran.wordpress.com/rfid-the-future-to-be http://www.rfidjournal.com/faq/show?85
  55. 55. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Infrastructure Cost Types of Road Length (Km) Cost ($) Total 3,453 8,632,500 Expressways 164 410,000 Arterial Roads 662 1,655,000 Collector Roads 571 1,427,500 Local Access Roads 2,055 5,137,500
  56. 56. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Vehicle Modification Cost Types of Vehicles No. of Vehicles Cost ($) Total 969,910 96,991,000 Cars (includes private and company cars) 605,149 60,514,900 Rental Cars 14,862 1,486,200 Taxis 28,210 2,821,000 Buses 17,162 1,716,200 Motorcycles Scooters 144,110 14,411,000 Goods Other Vehicles 160,417 16,041,700
  57. 57. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Magnets RFID MAGNETS RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION (RFID) Infrastructure Cost $ 76,584,087 $ 8,632,500 Vehicle Modification Cost $ 105,720,190 $ 96,991,000 Total Implementation Cost $ 182,304,277 $ 105,623,500 Per Vehicle Cost (Total Implementation Cost/Total No. of Vehicles) $ 187.96 $ 108.90 Cost
  58. 58. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Magnets RFID At current state of technology, The reliability and accuracy of technologies such as LIDAR and GPS are subject to certain conditions such as weather, GPS coverage, etc With the implementation of localization technologies such as Magnets and RFID, The local infrastructure will be ready for a fully AV system with higher reliability and accuracy. There is a potential to replace the need for expensive equipment such as LIDAR and GPS for localization due to the lower implementation cost per vehicle. With the removal of localization equipment from AVs, the price of AVs will drop significantly. The overall cost of implementation of AVs will also decrease.
  59. 59. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Equipment Costs for Vehicles Conclusion COMPONENTS ESTIMATED COST Communications Technologies Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) $500 Computation Technologies In-Vehicle Computing Platform1 $2,000 LocalizationTechnologies Radar $100 Magnets $109 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) $100 Source [1] http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/157099-2014-lexus-is-hands-on-review-500-adaptive-cruise-handling-to-match-the-bmw-3-series
  60. 60. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Conclusion The local infrastructure will be ready for a fully AV system with higher reliability and accuracy. Shift of implementation costs from consumers • Portion of the implementation costs will be infrastructure costs which will likely to be borne by the government. This will lower the cost of AVs to the consumers. Lower implementation costs of AVs due to replacement technologies • Replacement of expensive equipment costs due to LIDAR and GPS With higher reliability and accuracy of AVs and lower cost of AVs, the adoption of AVs will likely increase at a faster rate. Potentially, less vehicles may be required on the road.
  61. 61. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
  62. 62. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Political Economic Environmental Technological Social Legal PESTLE Analysis
  63. 63. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Political CARTS (Committee on Autonomous Road Transport for Singapore) provide thought leadership and guidance on the research, development and deployment of AV technology and AV-enabled mobility concepts for the city-state, and study the associated opportunities and challenges. Singapore Autonomous Vehicle Initiative (SAVI) Autonomous Vehicles: The research partnership will look at the feasibility of having AV (e.g. driverless buses) for a mass transport service that operates on fixed routes and scheduled timings.This can alleviate Singapore’s heavy reliance on manpower. Autonomous mobility system: Another area of exploration is a new mobility system for intra-town travel in future residential developments using a network of customised and demand-responsive shared vehicles. This can potentially serve as a convenient first mile/last mile transport mode within a residential town, and can pave the way for towns which are less oriented towards car-based mobility. Automated road system: The collaboration will also aim to prepare technical and statutory requirements for the mass adoption of driverless vehicles in Singapore, and explore applications which can enhance traffic management.
  64. 64. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Benefits Economic Reduce crashes, energy consumption and pollution Reduce the costs of congestion Occupants of vehicles could undertake other activities Increased throughput on roads due to more efficient vehicle operation and reduced delays from accidents Freeing up of land space due to parking space leading to greater development Over time, as the frequency of crashes is reduced, vehicles can be made lighter, increasing fuel economy even more Challenges Jobs displacement for many occupations such as taxi, truck and bus drivers Decline in insurance companies, body shops, medical services, etc, due to reduction in accidents Increase in overallVehicle MilesTravelled (VMT) due to decreased cost of driving
  65. 65. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Ref: Singapore Traffic Police Economic Singapore Road Accident Rate
  66. 66. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles MOTOR VEHICLE POPULATION BY TYPE OF VEHICLE Ref: Singapore Land Transport Authority Singapore Motor Vehicle Population 2013 62% 1% 2% 3% 15% 17% 2013 Cars (includes private and company cars) (605,149) Rental Cars (14,862) Taxis (28,210) Buses (17,162) Motorcycles Scooters (144,110) Economic
  67. 67. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Benefits Social Increase mobility for those who are currently unable or unwilling to drive Independence, reduction in social isolation, and access to essential services Commuters more willing to travel longer distances to and from work. Car-sharing to potentially increase interaction Challenges People may not be willing to accept driverless vehicles (i.e. previous experiences of LRT breakdowns)
  68. 68. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Ref: Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predications, 4 Jun 2014 By Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute Social Vehicle Technology Deployment Summary
  69. 69. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous Vehicle Sales, Fleet and Travel Projections Ref: Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predications, 4 Jun 2014 By Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute Social
  70. 70. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Technological Benefits As the frequency of crashes is reduced, cars and trucks could be made much lighter and hence many of the issues limiting the use of electric and other alternative vehicles are reduced Decreased number of crashes and associated lower insurance costs that these technologies are expected to bring about will encourage drivers and automobile-insurance companies to adopt these technologies. Challenges Manufacturers’ product liability may increase leading to delays in the adoption of AVs Concerns may slow the introduction of technologies likely to increase that liability, even if they are socially desirable.
  71. 71. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles - NAIVA(autonomous electric shuttle), partnership between NTU, JTC and Induct Technologies - Supported by the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) Shared Computer Operated Transport (SCOT) - Collaboration between Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) and NUS - Funded by the Singapore National Research Foundation (NRF) through SMART at the Campus for Research Excellence And Technological Enterprise (CREATE) Autonomous Unmanned Ground Vehicle (AUGV) - Developed by ST Kinetics Technological
  72. 72. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Challenges Legal Standards and Regulations for Autonomous Vehicle Technologies Currently no standards or regulations in Singapore on AVs Liabilities of drivers and insurance Potential increase in manufacturers; product liability which could lead to delays in adoption Warnings and consumer education will play a crucial role in managing manufacturer liability but concerns may slow the introduction of technologies likely to increase that liability, even if they are socially desirable
  73. 73. Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles Environmental Benefits Over time, as the frequency of crashes is reduced, cars and trucks could be made much lighter. This would increase fuel economy even more. AVs might reduce pollution by enabling the use of alternative fuels. The light vehicle body may enable the use of electric and other alternative vehicles The use of AVs would allow a viable system with fewer refueling stations than would otherwise be required. A platoon of closely spaced AVs that stops or slows down less often resembles a train, enabling lower peak speeds (improving fuel economy) but higher effective speeds (improving travel time). Challenges On the other hand, decreases in the cost of driving, and additions to the pool of vehicle users (e.g., elderly, disabled, and those under 16) are likely to result in an increase in overall VMT. While it seems likely that the decline in fuel consumption and emissions would outweigh any such increase, it is uncertain.
  74. 74. Entrepreneurial Opportunities
  75. 75. Entrepreneurial Opportunities 1) Auto OEMs Suppliers •↑ Demand for Communicating Vehicles • AV Testing Servicing Industry 2) Components Manufacturers •↑ Demand within Automotive Semiconductor industry: sensors, display, data storage, communications. 3) Software Vendors/ Data Mgnt Analyst Companies • OEM Design for AVs • Dedicated Road System, e.g. Smart Traffic Light on roads • Big Data within V2X : Cloud system, real-time traffic monitoring.
  76. 76. Entrepreneurial Opportunities 4) Telecommunication Service Providers • Must have: Full coverage of all highways road in dedicated roads •↑
  77. 77. - I y . 5) Media Advertisers • In-Vehicle TV Subscription Services • Outdoor Advertising on Dedicated Road 6) Transportation Svs Companies: Cargo Passengers Svs • Fleet mgnt svs for delivery trucks e.g. UPS, FedEx • Car Rental Svs; Car Sharing; Auto-Taxi Scheme
  78. 78. 12 Nov 2014
  79. 79. Appendix
  80. 80. Intersection Movement Assist The future with no traffic lights http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pbAI40dK0A#action=share
  81. 81. Trend of Wi-Fi Technology General increasing trend of wireless network Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11
  82. 82. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Plot of signal attenuation at sea level and 20°C vs frequency Ref: http://electronicdesign.com/communications/millimeter-waves-will-expand-wireless-future Radar shows how oxygen (at 60 GHz) and water at the other peaks in the atmosphere significantly increase signal attenuation.
  83. 83. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization Ref: http://radar-detectors-review.toptenreviews.com/ Radar
  84. 84. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization SINGAPORE: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Types of Roads Description Expressways Refer to roads that provide planned long-distance mobility from one part of the island to another without the interruption of traffic lights. Arterial Roads Refer to roads connecting an expressway with roads surrounding or passing through estate developments. They also improve traffic circulation between adjacent towns. Collector Roads Refer to roads forming links between local roads and arterial roads and providing links to building or land developments. Local Access Roads Refer to roads that provide direct access to buildings and other developments and that only connect with collector roads. Source: LTA
  85. 85. Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization SINGAPORE PUBLIC ROADS 2013 5% 19% 17% 59% Expressways (164 km) Arterial Roads (662 km) Collector Roads (571 km) Local Access Roads (2,055 km) Source: Land Transport Authority Source: LTA

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