What are the critical challenges the world faces in meeting international climate change and sustainable development targets? That was the topic of discussion at a side event this week hosted by Future Earth and its partners at the Bonn Climate Change Conference. The event, called “Reframing the Climate Debate: Enhancing the Paris Agreement and SDG Linkages,” addressed The World in 2050 project, a new effort to develop pathways to sustainable development within safe planetary boundaries.

1. Improving health worldwide
www.lshtm.ac.uk
Climate change impact on human health
Challenges & adaptation/mitigation strategies
in context of the SDGs
Pauline Scheelbeek – Future Earth / LSHTM
http://blogs.lshtm.ac.uk/shefs/
http://futureearth.org/future-earth-health
@LSHTM_sustainhealth

2. The Great Acceleration

3. Yet we are healthier than ever before…

4. Climate change & human health

5. Heat
Mora et al Nature Climate Change - forthcoming

6. Indirect impacts of heat:
Air pollution
• Respiratory disease
• Cardiovascular disease
• Heart disease
• Asthma, COPD
• Lung Cancer
• Premature deaths
Fossil fuel combustion:
• PM2.5 & PM10
• Ground level ozone
Higher temperatures
stimulates ozone formation

7. Salinity
Scheelbeek et al 2017 – Env Health Persp;
Each 100mg/l decrease in drinking water sodium

8. Ecosystem mediated health impact
Dengue Risk
In 1990: 30% population
(1.5 billion people) in
regions with estimated risk
of dengue >50%
In 2085: estimated 50-60%
of projected global
population, (5-6 billion
people) at risk of dengue
Would have been 35% (3.5
billion) if no climatic
changes
Hales et al The Lancet, 2002

9. Drought & Food Production

10. Complexities in the food system

11. Agriculture & food security

12. • Lower concentrations of zinc and iron
(Myers et al, 2014)
Impact on Crop Quality

13. -50% +50%
Negative effect Positive effect
CO2
+250ppm
Water availability
-50%
Temperature
+4°C
Ozone
+25%
Leafy vegetables
Yield Change
+100%-100%
Baseline ≤ 20°C
Baseline > 20°C
• Iron
• zinc
Fruits & vegetables
Scheelbeek et al - 2017 - forthcoming

14. Disrupted food system

15. Complexities in the food system

16. Example of India
• Population Growth
• Dietary change
• Groundwater depletion
• Climate change

17. Current dietary patterns

18. Realistic Dietary Changes

20. Generate evidence
coordinate research agenda
guide implementation of SDGs

21. Cami Allen
Frances Bird
Alan Dangour
Rosie Green
Andy Haines
Francesca Harris
Edward Joy
Benjamin Kayatz
Georgina Mace
Pete Smith