An Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Turkey

1. An Integrated Probabilistic Risk
Assessment for Turkey
Sevgi Özcebe1, Vitor Silva2, Helen Crowley3, Christopher Burton4
IUSS-UME School, Pavia, Italy
University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

2. Integrated Seismic Risk
Physical Seismic Risk
Probability of damage and loss to structures
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Vulnerability of society and economy
Ankara
İzmir
İstanbul
Van

3. What is needed to calculate the physical risk?
Probability of ground
shaking
Vulnerability of exposure
elements
Elements at risk

4. How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake
Seismic Hazard:
Classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
Seismic source model Ground motion model
Ground Motion
Prediction Equations
Weight
Akkar & Çağnan (2010) 0.35
Akkar et al. (2014) 0.65
SHARE Seismic
Source Model
Weight
Area Source Model 0.5
Fault Source and
0.2
Background Model
Smoothed Seismicity 0.3

5. How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake
Seismic Hazard Model
Source model logic tree Ground motion logic tree
Logic Tree Processor
Source model
Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator
Earthquake Rupture Forecast
Classical Hazard Curve Calculator
Ground Motion
Prediction Equation
Hazard Curves and Maps

6. The resulting seismic hazard
Mean seismic hazard in Peak Ground Acceleration (g) for rock,
for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
0.61 g
0.10 g
İstanbul
Ankara
Van
İzmir
To include site effects, Vs30 proxies by Wald and Allen, 2007 is allocated

7. Capturing building types in Turkey
2000 Building Census,Turkish Statistical Institute
Building Density
(unit/km2)
Low
High
Frame Construction Bearing Wall/Masonry Construction
Reinforced concrete
frame with infill walls
Brick
Hollow concrete blocks
Stone
Adobe
Wood Frame Steel Frame Wood

8. Distribution of reinforced concrete and masonry
residential buildings
Reinforced Concrete Frame
with Infill Walls
Low Rise
Mid Rise
High Rise
Brick and Hollow
Concrete Block Masonry
Low Rise
Mid Rise
Stone and Adobe Masonry
Low Rise
Mid Rise
İstanbul
Van
İzmir

9. Relating shaking intensity to building damage:
Fragility curves for reinforced concrete structures
(Erberik , 2008)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Mid Rise
0 20 40 60 80 100
Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Low Rise
0 20 40 60 80 100
Probability of exceedance
Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)

10. Relating shaking intensity to building damage:
Fragility curves for masonry structures
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
Brick and Hollow Concrete Block Masonry
Urban Type
Adobe and Stone Masonry
Rural Type
(Erberik , 2008)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Probability of exceedance
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)

11. Transforming damage into economic loss
Damage-to-Loss Functions Vulnerability Curves
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Brick and Concrete
Block Masonry-
Low Rise
Stone and Adobe
Masonry- Low Rise
Brick and Concrete
Block Masonry-
Mid Rise
Stone and Adobe
Masonry- Mid Rise
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Repair Cost / Replacement Cost
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Slight Moderate Collapse
Repair Cost / Replacement
Cost
KOERI (2003)
Bal et al. (2007)
Damage states
Fragility Curves

12. How the risk is calculated in OpenQuake
Hazard Model Exposure Model Physical Vulnerability Model
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1
Loss Ratio (%)
Economic loss ($)
Loss Curves Loss Maps
Probability of
exceedance in 50 years
Classical Probabilistic Hazard Assessment
Based-Risk Calculator

13. How this study compares the others
Ankara
Average annualized loss ratio
Loss / Value
İstanbul
İzmir Van
high
Ankara
Average annualized economic loss
Loss ($)
İstanbul
İzmir Van
high
This Study
(Preliminary)
AIR RMS Demircioglu (2010)
Average Annualized Loss Ratio 0.13 % 0.14% 0.09% 0.12%

14. What is needed to measure the socio-economic
vulnerability?
Indicator Vulnerability
Female population
Increases
Population living in province and district centers
Population under 4 years of age and over 65 years of age
Population density
Average size of households
Renter households
Households not served by piped water systems
Population with a disability
Working-age population that is unemployed
Birth rate
Labor force that is employed in service industries
Illiterate population
Population with high education completed
Decreases
Female labor force participation

15. What is needed to measure the socio-economic
vulnerability?
Data Transformation:
metrics as percentage, per capita, per unit
Data Standardization:
Normalization, Min-max scaling, Z-scores
Multivariate Analysis:
Data exploration, correlations

16. Transforming many indicators into a single index
Multivariate
Analysis
Socio-
Economic
Vulnerability
Index
Uncorrelated
indicators
Aggregation of
uncorrelated
indicators
İstanbul
Indicators
Transformed &
Standardized
Van
Socio-Economic Vulnerability for Turkey

17. Putting it all together: Integrated risk for Turkey
Physical Risk
Ankara
İzmir
İstanbul
Van
+ Socio-Economic Vulnerability
=
Integrated Risk

18. Zooming in
Physical Risk
Socio-Economic
Vulnerability
Integrated Risk
İstanbul
Van

19. Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -
www.globalearthquakemodel.org
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/