Looking at production statistics and population figures in isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where we have come from and where we are likely to end up in a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately.

1. Digital Re-print January | February 2014
133.6kg/capita - Setting a global
benchmark for feed production
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2. F
&Feed millinG technoloGy
40 | January - February 2014
Grain
133.6kg/capita
Setting a global benchmark for
feed production
by Roger Gilbert, publisher of GFMT magazine
Roger Gilbert was invited to participate on the recent
round of VIV Roadshows, speaking in Abuja, Nigeria at
the beginning of January 2014 and more recently at
the IPPE’s VIV Pig Production Summit USA. His topic
was a: ‘The role of a robust compound feed to meet
the needs of a growing world population’ and based
on survey results from Alltech’s feed survey showing
world production in 2013 at 963 million tonnes.
L
ooking at production statistics and population figures in
isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where
we have come from and where we are likely to end up in
a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately.
Static figures do not encourage us to address issues that are
looming.
I’m of the view that information is knowledge, knowledge brings
responsibility, and together provides us with influence and power
to bring about change. If we ‘know’ we have a responsibility to ‘act’.
Nigeria represents one of the few countries on the planet that
is adding substantially and significantly to its population base. In the
next decade it is projected by the US Census Bureau to add 50 million people to its current 177 million population base and by 2050
challenge the USA for the third most populated country at just under
300 million people! It’s an issue that our industry, and the food industry in general – both in Nigeria and globally - will have to address.
Nigeria is just one example, an extreme one, of what is likely to
happen in developing countries over the next 35 years.
However, there is good news for Africa. From the FAO, and
surveying the first 12 years of the 21st century, Africa IS increasing
its production of foodstuffs faster than anywhere else on the planet.
The area being harvest is increasing at twice the rate of that of any
other region while two regions – the Americas and Europe – show
no increase in area harvested at all.
Product quality is also improving at the fastest rate
in this region while yield increases are matching those
being achieved in the America and Asia.
While world food production growth is increasing on average at 2.1 percent per year, Africa is
moving ahead at 3.5 percent – and Nigeria is in
amongst the countries achieve these higher-thanaverage increases.
Food consumption per capita based on an
index of 2004-06, shows Africa achieving the fastest and most sustained growth rising from 78kg/
head to 117kg/head since 1992.
As we are addressing compound feed production it is interesting to see what is happening to the
consumption of meat and eggs. Total food supply
has doubled in that period to 1.4 million tonnes
and per capita consumption of meat up from 7.4kg/
head to almost 9kg/head.
That in fact, highlights the next point I wish to
make. How can ‘meat’ supply double yet per head
consumption rise by less than 20%? The answer is
straightforward – population increase. And that is
why grams/day consumption of ‘meat’ products (in protein and fat
terms) has largely stagnated in Nigeria since 1997.
By comparison world food supply has also shown a steady
upward trend, increasing by almost 1/5th over a 20 year period.
However, in contrast to that, world per capita consumption has
fallen from a high of 151kg on average to 146.5kg. No much you
might think in terms of total weight, but the additional population
over that period is having an impact and we are likely to see this
downward trend continue.
And based on consumption per person, the supply of protein
in our diets is showing a steady decline as well. On average we are
consuming a gram less protein per person per day. Again not significant
you might think, but highlights an ongoing tend that can only accelerate.
Fat consumption on the other hand remains relatively unchanged,
at between 5.9-6g/head per day. Possibly reflecting the tremendous
increase in palm production throughout Asia over recent decades.
Population pyramids
I want to show here how developing country populations are
going to increase – again based on figures from the US Census
Bureau. I have compared them to the country I live in – the UK - for
comparison. You’ll notice that Nigeria has a wider population base
compared to the UK (which given the total difference in numbers,
is only natural). Also, the UK shows a ‘bulge’ in the 40-60 year olds
groups due in part to the baby boomers following the Second World
War. What is also evident is the increased number of people living
longer in the UK than their counterparts in Nigeria.
As we move ahead through time – to 2030 - the Nigerian
population base has widened by an additional 8-10 million births in
the 0-4 age group (with a total of 38 million) while the shape of the
pyramid remains the same; and with no more people living longer. In
the UK on the other hand the population base has remained largely
unchanged while even more people are living longer.
Finally, by 2050, the year in which it’s calculated the world will
reach 9.5 billion people on the planet, and before stabalising at
around 10 billion for the remainder of the century, Nigeria, while
maintaining its pyramid shape, will once more see its population base

3. 41 | January - February 2014
Grain
F
&Feed millinG technoloGy
Aquaculture
expand, this time adding almost 70 million people in one-to-four
year olds! Again the UK is largely unchanged with a static population base.
These are in general the two key trends that differenciate
between today’s developed countries and those ‘developing’.
Global feed production
I’m basing my comments on the latest Alltech Survey 2013
which provides output figures up until December 2013: the most
comprehensive available for our industry worldwide and which we
should be grateful to have.
The world currently manufacturers annually just under a billion
metric tonnes of compounded or formulated animal feed. These
feed statistics were collected by 600 Alltech staff from 130 countries involving 28,196 feedmills. Note: Numbers for less developed
countries may be less accurate; but that will have little influence on
overall dataset.
The top 10 countries in descending order of output are: China, USA,
Brazil, Mexico, Spain, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France which
account for 611 million tonnes or two-thirds of world production.
Poultry, which includes layers, broilers, turkeys and others,
account for 444.4 million tonnes of feeds while pigs account for
242.8 million tonnes and ruminants – dairy, beef, calves and others
– 195.6 million tonnes.
Key survey findings include:
• China leading producer at 189 million tons
• Asia leading overall region with 348 million
• US and Brazil 2nd and 3rd largest countries
• Africa fastest growing region; up 7%
• Middle East has largest feed mills by annual production
Other key findings:
• Poultry still the leading species
• 46% of all feed is poultry feed, 61% of that is for broilers
• 444.4 million tons fed to poultry worldwide
• Aqua experienced fastest growth up 17% over 2012 –
exceeded 40 million tons.
• Pig feed production increased 11% (esp. China)
• Pet food up slightly, Equine up 14%
• Ruminant feed production declined 20%
• Decline in both Beef and Dairy
• Able to switch to forages when grain prices high
The 16 important countries in terms of feed production are
ranked in the bar chart above because I want to make the point that
countries producing more feed do not necessarily have more feedmills. In fact, this chart is ranked by countries on the left with the least
CONFERENCE
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ORE,
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GLOBAL MILLING
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In fact, the next few slides will focus on aquaculture as I
believe that based on the information coming to hand, this
species is likely to become a major food source for us in the
future. Aquaculture is already making a growing and significant
contribution to our planet’s protein supplies.
Salmon will continue to lead the way with a rapid increase
rate of 4.6 percent while catfish and poultry follow. Pork and
beef are lower down at 1% and under.
Fish is out-performing beef production. Over the past 50
years it has managed to keep pace with the uptake of meat
thanks to the development of aquaculture.
Over the past 30 years, while seafood production has
increased per capita consumption has risen to 19kg/head
(compare to 59kg of beef consumption per head of population in China in 2009).
And looking ahead, FAO projects that in the run-up to
2050 we will experience a boom in production, seeing total
seafood supplies increase by more than a third.
FAO project that the feed requirement of aquaculture will
increase at a rate of over six percent per annum up until 2020
to 11 percent of all feed supplies, over land-based protein
supplies of a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period.
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4. F
42 | January - February 2014
&Feed millinG technoloGy
Grain

5. 43 | January - February 2014
Grain
&Feed millinG technoloGy
As FAO and other UN organisations, including their associated
NGOs, demonstrate safe and affordable food supply is not the
responsibility of those with commercial interests alone to fulfill; there
is a need for governments to assume responsibility in ensuring food
is produced in volumes that are safe and affordable for all.
Here, I show Nigeria’s total population in 2014 alongside the
volume in tonnes of its compound feed production (just under 2
million tonnes). I’ve compared that to other countries producing
approximately two million tonnes of compound feed and show here
the populations those countries feed.
If my proposal has any substance, then the people of Bosnia will
be enjoying a healthy diet of livestock and fish products than their
counterparts in Sweden or Czech Republic. Or they are enjoying
healthier incomes from export sales.
When comparing Nigeria’s 177 million population of today with
similarly populated countries we can compare their compound feed
Industry now valued at US$500 billion—higher than previous estimate
of US$350 billion a 2.2 percent annual increase for the same period
production; it is quickly evident that Nigeria is faring no better than
Bangladesh and is a long way behind a country like Brazil.
For every Nigerian to enjoy the ‘world average’ supply of animal
proteins based on compound feed, then the Nigerian Feed Industry has
to rise to the challenge and lift production from 1.9 million tonnes to
23.6 million tonnes annually: over a 10-fold on what it is producing now.
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Nigeria ranks 54 out of the 133 countries surveyed, in terms of
total formulated feed production at 1.9 million tonnes (this does not
include home-produced feeds or feeding straights or unformulated
feeds). I’d like to extrapolate some figures from the information
presented and raise a question or two for you to ponder.
1) What are the populations of other countries producing a similar
amount of feed to Nigeria?
2) How much feed is being produced by those countries with
similar populations?
The reason I ask these questions is that I believe there is a correlation between the volume of compound feed produced in a country
and the ability of that country to feed its population adequately.
And I have identified a ‘benchmark’ that I believe all countries
need to exceed in order to claim they are providing the nutritional
requirements for their populations.
HE
A developing country’s prospects
GET T
feed mills to the most on the right. And what is really interesting is that
the average production from feedmills is not too dissimilar between
countries and between regions at 30,000-60,000 tonnes per year.
I believe that scientifically-formulated compound feeds offer the
solution to this world feeding itself adequately by 2050.
We not only have to meet the future needs of humans arriving
on the planet, but we also have to meet the needs of those wanting
to improve their diets as they become more economically advanced.
On top of that we have to address the one billion people FAO tells
us are receiving less food than is required to sustain themselves. That
figure has not been diminishing, but increasing in recent years.
You may not believe that growing livestock and fish for protein is
the way forward however, growing and consuming cereals and crops
has not proven to be the complete answer either. Livestock and
fish have many advantages in the production of protein for human
consumption over grains and cereals (which we cannot go into here)
and we should give this industry a chance to prove itself as it offers
huge utilization and conversion efficiencies yet to be fully realized.
Unless we measure where we are we cannot set meaningful
‘benchmarks’ for ourselves or our industry for the future.
Alltech’s figures are the first comprehensive figures the industry
has on just how much compounded feed is being produced and
used. Based on these figures and our current world population, I put
it to you that each country must set an annual benchmark that sees
every citizen having access to food that is based on 133.6kg/head of
scientifically-formulated compound feed.
After all, that’s the world average and every country should be
striving to be equal to or rise above the average in terms of supplying
safe and affordable food to its people.
F
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