Our commodities market round up for November & December 2012

1. Digital Re-print -
November | December 2012
Global Feed Markets:
November - December 2012
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All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
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2. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Grain and feed
markets are also
Supplies less tight than
being restrained
expected?
by ‘macro’ factors
T
HE past two months have been a data from the US Department of Agriculture’s
- the ongoing Euro- roller coaster ride for the grain and monthly US and global grain and oilseed crop
feed raw material markets. In Europe, updates, consumers finally had some better news
zone crisis, joined wheat prices rose sharply as this year’s in November. USDA came out with bigger than
smaller crop continued to disappear too fast for expected US maize and soyabean crop estimates,
now by constant comfort into export channels as Russian and raising rather than lowering its seasonal ending
Ukrainian supplies dwindled and the Arab world stock forecasts for both commodities (soya quite
talk of the US stocked up. Prices also responded to unhelpful substantially). It also made only minor cuts in
harvest weather threatening Australian and world wheat output and – with a significant cut
economy tumbling Argentine crop yields and quality, by dry in its consumption forecast – was actually able
weather plaguing the barely sown US hard red to raise ending stocks for this grain.
off the ‘fiscal winter crop and far too much rain holding up In response, US markets for wheat, maize
planting of next year’s French and UK crops. and soyabeans all fell to multi-month lows
clifff’ in the New Amid the perception of ever tightening world while forward futures months for the latter two
wheat output and stocks, frisky US futures markets continued to display big discounts. All this
Year. Along with markets helped pull European milling wheat was at odds with some bullish views on forward
futures to their highest prices since February last prices from some of the big banks at last month’s
China’s prospects year. With its own set of unusually poor quality Global Grain Conference, especially for maize.
problems, the London feed wheat contract went ‘Stale’ bulls may still argue that the USDA is
for slower growth, one better still and traded its highest prices ever. too optimistic on some of its crop forecasts
Despite being braced for further unwelcome – chiefly those for South American maize and
this continues to
encourage fears of
global economic
recession turning
into depression.
30 | november - december 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

3. Feed Knowledge
Global
THE
Miller
www.gfmt.co.uk

4. FEATURE
turning into depression. None of this is
encouraging for the food, feed and their
upstream and downstream partners from
the point of view of a healthy trading
environment. But it may at least help
keep costs anchored (not least by keeping
speculators reined in).
So where might the grain and feed
markets go in 2013? Will Chicago maize
be trading in the latter part of the year, as
futures markets suggest, 16% cheaper than
now, in the low $6’s per bu or less, soyabeans
20% lower at $11/bu as US crops revive by
perhaps 100m and 10m tonnes respectively?
Will Latin America grow 30/35m tonnes
soyabeans and, to a lesser extent Australian fully reflect the possibility of more normal more soyabeans than it did this year and will
and Argentine wheat output. US maize weather, high prices and consequent Russia produce 30m tonnes more wheat as
production might also be reduced again expanded sowings bringing major crop its officials recently suggested? Or will the
when producers, in their opinion wood pallets are areas and yeartransporting itself (maize weather again of pallet, theynastyalso considered
USDA does its final acreage count rebounds next for - in the US finished product is enic type spring some are surprises
not food-safe expected to be lower and a no brainer. The plastic pallets we recom- by many record high costs across are
in January (generally in a preparation environment. soyabeans), in Russia and Ukraine leading to new to be the safest, as therethe no
– but Bringing a wood pallet into a bakery could mend barley) and to a lesser extent, board? Nobodyedges or stage knows no risk of
who knows, after the upsets in its (wheat and are manufactured from the highest nails, sharp at this splinters and and
November disaster as wood chip could easily go quality food grade virgin or recycled materi- loose of these crops are seen up and
spell report? There is also little doubt Western and Central Europe (all grains). until some component parts breaking free under
that the ratio of maize stocks – the health, legal and als and comply with EU safety legislations. manual lifting conditions can doubtlessinjury
unnoticed in product to consumption Details of some of these possible scenarios running toward harvest, we and causing
is still economiclow levels that could be immense. discussed in bags,relevant sectionswith an open to more price volatility into first half
at risky consequences could easily are For flour the a plastic pallet below. expect operatives.
The same price explosion if the the finished flow-through top deck will offer the best grip
trigger another goes for transporting past USDA has also helped underline our 2013.
year’s long list of weather in wood pallets can easily but in the last issue that grain where mould, A worthwhile investment
product. Metal nails problems repeats argument has no internal cavities demand
into 2013. themselves loose and burst a bag of flour dust and other contaminants anything so
work
which longer a whole pallet load.
cannot be guaranteed to grow at can collect,
like it can of easily years, or even remain
Main commodity Although hygiene and food safety are
However,could spoilterm bears might It only the pace be recentcleaned by hand or with an key priorities for food processors and
reasonably aclaim for ward futuresbag unsalable. automated system.
takes tiny tear to make a flour don’t stable, when costs constantly rise to record
Using plastic pallets in food preparation
developments since our last
manufacturers, cost will always remain a
Plastic pallets are not only the most hygi- major factor in any purchasing decision.
or near record
levels. That isreview
why the world
this season is
Wheat – exports will cut EU
expec ted to stocks
use over 20m
tonnes each Amid fairly brisk demand from a number
l e s s w h e a t of Middle Eastern and Nor th African
a n d m a i z e countries, EU wheat exporters have been
after decades making the most of reduced competition
o f m o s t l y from the former Soviet ‘Black Sea’ countries
relentless and consequent higher prices on the world
growth. market this autumn. For the season to
G r ain and date, EU export licenses are now running
feed markets significantly ahead of last year’s pace, despite
are also being the current crop turning out 5.5m tonnes
restrained smaller than in 2011 (around 132m tonnes).
b y ‘ m a c r o ’ Even with a predicted 4m tonne drop in
factors - the domestic consumption, EU ending stocks
ongoing Euro- next Jun 30 will be wafer thin at a forecast
zo n e c r i s i s , 9m tonnes compared with 12/19m in recent
j o i n e d n o w years.
by cons t a nt Wheat prices peaked early in November
t a l k of t h e when Ukraine announced it would curb sales
US economy for shipment after November with Russia,
tumbling of f the other cheapest seller, expected to follow
the ‘fiscal clifff ’ soon afterwards. Ukraine’s move hardly
in the New justified the market reaction (which didn’t
Ye a r. A lo ng last long) as the trade knew this supplier
with China’s had already committed all or more than its
prospects for supposed 5/5.5m tonne export surplus. Since
slower growth, then, various officials have tried to put an
this continues acceptable spin on the export halt, aware
to encourage that it is not only at odds with World Trade
fears of global Organisation edicts but has not gone down
economic well with Ukraine’s top customer, Egypt.
recession At risk of having to re-source some of its
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy november - december 2012 | 19
32 | november - december 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

5. some bullish aspec ts to
this. One is that over 55m
tonnes of these are within
China’s strategic reser ve,
so theoretically ‘off-market’
and unable to inf luence THE GLOBAL LEADER
prices much (some western INVALVES FOR
obser vers also doubt that DRY BULK SOLIDS
China holds any thing like
this much wheat). Another
22m tonnes is held in India,
much of it poorly stored and
of dubious quality. Even so,
what’s left in other supplying
and impor ting countries’
stocks should be enough to
Ukrainian wheat elsewhere, Egypt initially see this market through the season without
took Ukraine off its list of approved suppliers price mayhem.
at one point but re-instated it after a pledged The main uncertainties hanging over the
to honour all contracts – even if that meant wheat market, which could drive prices
paying to find the wheat elsewhere. higher, are the uncertain outcomes for some
CARBON OR STAINLESS
Combined wheat production within the of the big exporters’ 2013 crops. Australia’s
former Soviet bloc is expected to drop from may be under 20m versus the expected
last year’s 115m tonnes to 72.5m. Exports
from the main three suppliers are expected
21m tonnes and is experiencing some quality
problems too from difficult harvest weather. UNIQUE FLOW DESIGN
to fall from 37.6m to 23m. However, the
implications are less severe than in past
year’s of crop shortfall, partly because the
Argentina’s crop is probably over-rated by
1/1.5m mn tonnes and much of its usually
good export quality breadwheat has been
DUST TIGHT
region’s carry-over stocks started out 5m
tonnes higher than last year’s and, even more
downgraded by rain-delayed har vests.
The USA’s hard red winter wheat crop is
CLEAN IN PLACE
importantly, because world wheat import meanwhile suffering from prolonged drought.
trade is also seen down this season by 14m Wheat, of course, is a tough crop with
tonnes. remarkable powers of recuperation. Within
World wheat export competition hasn’t the US itself, drought seems to be a recurring
gone away this season because of the Black theme in recent winters – yet the crop
Sea shortfall, or the accompanying declines usually seems to come through bigger and
of about 4m tonnes each expected in better quality than the pessimists fear. That
Australian and Argentine exports. Australian said, this year is undoubtedly much worse
expor t availability of at least 19m tonnes than normal, official surveys putting crop
will still be huge by historical comparison condition ratings at their lowest level ever.
while extra supplies are seen coming from Given that HRW is the largest component
Canada’s bumper crop (which will allow 2m of the top exporter’s foreign sales, this could
tonnes more expor ts than last year) and emerge as a bullish factor going into 2013.
India (exports up from last year’s 1.7m to On the other hand, the USA’s soft red winter
7m tonnes!) The biggest exporter of all, the crop is doing much better while it could also
USA, is also expected to raise shipments make up for some of the hard winter wheat
by 2.5m to 30.5m tonnes and still finish the losses by sowing more spring wheat.
season with a comfortable 19m tonnes of
stocks – enough to expand foreign sales
Europe is another problem area with
France and the UK both well behind on DUST TIGHT
further still if need be. So far, the US is failing
to meet its own export targets, undercut
their autumn sowings. This could result
in lower than expected planted areas and WEAR COMPENSATING SEALS
by Canada, Australia, Argentina, Europe,
some residual Black Sea sales and India’s
crops. However, Germany’s crop is in better
condition while it’s also possible that the ADJUSTABLE NYLON ROLLERS
emergence as a serious competitor. These
disappointing exports have been a constant
drag on the US futures markets and along
east European countries that helped pull
down this year’s crop after droughts and
heatwaves, could get better weather and
STAINLESS MATERIAL CONTACT
with the looser USDA supply figures and a crops next year.
3.6m tonne reduction in estimates of world At this stage, it remains possible that 2013
feed wheat use, have helped drive Chicago will bring a bigger world wheat crop but
futures prices down to four-month lows in
mid-November, a reversal that eventually
it will be many months before a reliable
picture shapes up. In the meantime, wheat
VORTEXVALVESEUROPE.COM
helped to knock EU wheat prices off their will remain exposed to a tight maize market
peaks too. and the broader need to rebuild depleted +44 (0) 870-770-9861
While an estimated 174m tonnes of wheat feedgrain stocks – a situation that cannot be VORTEX.EU@VORTEXVALVES.COM
carryover stocks for 2012/13 is hardly tight remedied before the next US maize harvest
relative to consumption needs, there are arrives in third quarter 2013.
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy november - december 2012 | 33

6. story is real in terms of human development large quantities. One of the
indicators, the performance has been a cause unique features of this tech- Table 2:
for concern. India is way down in the Human nology is to fortify processed Size Size
Development Index and very high in Global food products with micro- Growth
Category (Million (Million
KEY FACTORS IN THE
Hunger Index. As per National Family Health
Survey, 42.5 percent of children under the
nutrients.
As extrusion process is
Rupee) US$)
(%)
MONTHS AHEAD
age of five are underweight and 69.5 percent a high temperature short
anaemic. Pervasive malnutrition and under- time process, it can retain Packaged Milk 11000 220 7
• Winter weather reported‘Black Sea’the country.
nutrition is for the across (CIS), the micronutrients efficiently.
European and North American crops is seen
Serious calorie and protein deficiency Some of the most promis- Biscuits 6500 130 17
• Updated estimates of areas. The risk that the
especially in rural sown areas for N ing products that can allevi- Edible Oil 6100 122 13
Hemisphere winter wheat towards nutrition
country may rapidly move ate both micronutrient and
Tea 3700 74 8
• What shareiswill wheat take in feed
insecurity real. macronutrient malnutrition
consumption theplace profile ofin thepopulation
Given in age of maize the EU, are, textured protein prod- Savory Snacks * 2100 42 19
the (31 percent below theimport 15, and 53 per-
USA & in Far Eastern age of markets? ucts, lentil analogue, recon-
Confectionery 2100 42 12
• Where will Australian &of 25 representing the
cent below the age Argentine crops stituted rice, snack products
settle volume – andthe implications are serious.
future of India), quality - wise? etc. All these products can Vegetable Oil 1950 39 7
Malnutrition exerts long-term adverse effect be efficiently fortified with
Milk Food Drinks (MI Ds) 1450 29 2
Maize prices restrained
on human health, labour productivity and
general wellbeing. It is recognised that per-
various micronutrients.
Ghee (Clarified Butter) 1300 26 17
Maize prices have been fairly ‘range-bound’resist-
petual under-nutrition results in low A variety of Salt 1300 26 13
duringance last infections andrestrained by the
the to two months, increased morbidity. applications
bearish USDA data and a welter of negative One further advantage of Baby Foods 1100 22 1
Versatile processing
economic news with its possible implications this technology is to reduce 1000 million (Indian Rupee) = 20 million US$
for meat Extrusion technologyand, notof the most
and energy demand is one least, the cooking time of the proc-
by unusually poor foreign demand for US with
versatile food processing techniques essed products. This has an Source – AC Nielsen retail audit, All India (Urban + Rural), MAT Dec
grain.wide range of and many inOne of the most
The USDA applications. the trade economic advantage while 2006
are still expecting some sort of US export
important applications of extrusion technol- using these processed prod-
revival in the New Year, however, as intense
ogy is to produce healthy and nutritious ucts in the feeding programmes. This technol- and nutrition security in India include: micro-
Latin American and other competition starts Also,
alternates /analogues to some staples. ogy can be used to manufacture a number nutrient fortification of basic commodities;
to fade.
extrusion technology can help in utilising low of processed and value added food products manufacturing reconstituted rice; production
Keycost raw materials as well as underutilised
changes to the supply//demand in large volumes. Some of the products and of textured soy proteins in large volumes;
data this month manufacture US crop going
grains to include the these analogues in applications which have relevance to food manufacturing high protein snacks.
u p 50 0 , 0 0 0 4.3m lower than last year’s. Many in the
t o n n e s o n trade contest the USDA’s EU demand
IAOM Correspondence Course highe r y ield figures, including the forecast of just 5.5m
estimates tonnes of maize imports against NAI, Iseason’s
N last NDIA
in Flour Milling HE
1
(+0.3bpa), 7.1m. The popular range is 8-10m with one
C
IAOM’s Correspondence Course in Flour Milling has been helping to educate
GLOBAL MILLING
Russia’s crop leading analyst as high as 11.5m. This would
CONFERENCE
millers for over 60 years. This recently revised edition contains a
comprehensive curriculum beginning with basic milling and grain cleaning. It
up by a similar make the EU second only to Japan (15m) in
then delves into the gradual reduction system, different types of grains, a mount bu t the global import stakes – a development st
storage and packaging, air usage, mechanics, management, and much the EU harvest viewed on the US markets – which tend to
more. 7-
This 8-unit course is for the miller who wants to expand his or her
9F
– as 013
revised down set the world maize price trendebruarya2bullish
knowledge of the industry in a formalized manner. Milling by 1m tonnes factor going forward.
supervisors around the world order this course for their
employees, knowing that exposure to the material will enhance
to just 54.7m However, anchoring that sentiment
overall knowledge and performance. tonnes – somewhat, there has been plenty of
Millers, speak with your supervisors about enrolling in the
course. Supervisors, consider those employees whom you
would like to see grow in the company and encourage
India
11.5m below competition in in the global maize export
last year’s and markets recently, chiefly from Argentina,
them to enroll. The course is also appropriate for enriching
the experience of all seasoned employees in all sections the world’s second largest market
t h e l o w e s t Brazil, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, India.
level for many Some of these origins have been regularly
of the plant.
years. Along undercutting the US prices by $20/$40 per
Safety, sustainability and food supply in milling
Unit Topics w i t h o t h e r tonne which explains why US sales are doing
 Introduction to Milling and Wheat for the 21st Century
 Wheat Cleaning minor changes, so badly. In fact the lion’s share of a 2.4m
 Wheat Flour Milling that aggregatesmaterials -increase in supply maize trade this
• Raw tonne demand & world trends
 Milling other Classes of Wheat, Non-flour Wheat Products, a world maize & food safety going to Brazilian expor ts
Flour and Milled Grain Product Additives
• Food season is seen
c r o p• Milling technology developments be surprising to
o f (+2m tonnes). It would not
 Milling Other Grains
 Storage, Handling, Packaging and Use of Grain-based 840m • tonnes see formulation down its fairly large stocks
Nutrition & Brazil whittle
Products - 6 8 0 , Environment & sustainability if the demand was
• 0 0 0 further to export more
 Plant Management higher• than in security and the price right – so that US sales
 Introduction to Mill Mechanics
Food there
OctoberStorage revival could come later than they think.
• but & transportation
Per Unit Units 1-8 still almost 41m Despite weeks of rain-delayed planting,
IAOM Member Price: $250 $1,800
Non-member Price: $325 $2,340 d o w n Find out more at:
f r o m the USDA kept its South American maize
+shipping & handling l a s t y e a r ’s . crop forecasts (harvest first quarter 2013)
Language Formats
All 8 Units are available in English
http://bit.ly/QpgZGW
The EU maize unchanged on the assumption there was
Units 1 and 2 are available in Spanish (Units 3-8 are in translation) consumption still time to get these crops in and achieve
Unit 3: Wheat Flour Milling is available in Arabic
forecast was normal yields. However, not all analysts
For more information or to order online visit:
International Association of Operative Millers also raised by accept USDA’s high crop figures, especially
www.iaom.info 1. 5m tonnes for Argentina,by Assocom
Jointly organised which could be over-rated
10100 W. 87th Street, Suite 306
Overland Park, KS 66212 USA
P: +1-913-338-3377 | F: +1-913-338-3553
and Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine
bu t r emains by anything from 2m to 6m tonnes, all of
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy november - december 2012 | 23
34 | november - december 2012
GMC_90x132mm.indd 1
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy 16/10/2012 16

7. COMMODITIES
grain next year? This factor will continue
to dominate others influencing grain costs
right through to harvest in 3rd quarter
2013. At this stage it could be under or
over-reflected in weaker forward futures.
• Competition from L atin Amer ica ,
former Soviet countries and India has cut
demand for US maize. So has availability
of Australian & Indian feedwheat. But will
Argentina’s next crop fall shor t of the
record forecasts?
• How much corn will the EU use/import
in 2013 to meet its own feedgrain crop
shortfalls? - probably more than expected
by USDA
• Will US corn ethanol use revive after
dropping in 2012?
which would have to come off exports. Also, KEY FACTORS IN THE • Will China need more or less maize
these crops will likely be harvested later than imports next year and will suppliers like
normal in a year when tighter US supplies MONTHS AHEAD South America and Ukraine benefit more
need this seasonal supply top up on time. • Has the US 2012 maize crop gone from from this demand than the USA?
Overall, then, maize supplies are still fair under to over-rated? • Will global economic recession continue
from comfortable ahead of nine months of • Will farmers there sow a large area again to curb expansion in meat/consumption,
unknown growing weather. So again, this is and will weather favour normal yields – help cap feed grain demand & anchor grain
a market that could go either way. perhaps recovering 100m tonnes more and oilseed costs?
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy november - december 2012 | 35

8. under much better conditions than last year,
laying the foundations for bigger 2013 crops.
Among the top EU producers, rain has held
up and may limit sowings in France and the
UK but Germany is looking more promising
and maybe the East European countries,
who lost yield to drought and heat this year,
will get better weather next year. Largest
exporter Canada’s 2013 crop is larfgely spring
sown so an unknown quantity at this stage
but it would not be surprising to see farmers
there sow a big acreage again at these still
high prices.
World sunflower seed production under-
performed even more than rapeseed this
• Speculators’ enthusiasm to exploit any new record 268m in the full 2012/13 season. year, dropping 5.4m tonnes or 13% to just
maize crop weather problems Supplies could get another top up later in the 34.8m tonnes after disappointing crops in
Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up year if the US gets a return to normal yields Europe and the FSU countries.
extra soya? for its summer 2013 crop. Even on unchanged With little change in production of the other
US soyabean and meal prices fell to five- acreage, some analysts think could expand major oilmeals – groundnut, cottonseed etc
month lows in November after the USDA its next crop by as much as 10m tonnes, – it is clear that most of the increase in global
raised its US crop forecast by 3m to 80.9m back to the peak levels of 2009 and 2010, consumption will have to be fed by soya. It
tonnes. That was not only more than assuming weather does normalise. should also be noteds that carryover stocks of
expected but a remarkable shift from the In soya meal equivalent the increase in the alternative oilseeds will be unusually low at
view just two months ago, when USDA was 2012/13 supplies equals about 22m tonnes. the start of next season, especially for sunflowers
expecting the Midwest summer drought – However, USDA expects world crush to and rapeseed, the latter at a nine-year low. So
possibly the worst since the 1930s - to cut increase by only 4.5m, the rest of the extra even if these crops do rebound nextyear, supplies
the crop to just 72m tonnes (some traders beans going to food use and stocks. will probably not be so flush for yet another year.
even less). On paper, this suggests adequate beans Even so, if the optimistic soya crop predictions
The USDA also surprised the markets by to meet an expected increase of about 4m do materialise, that should be enough to hold
making no cuts were to its crop forecasts for tonnes in world soya meal demand spread costs down in the protein sector.
Latin America (harvested first quarter 2013) over China (+3.6m), Europe (+0.6m), Brazil
where Argentine sowing has been held up by
wet weather and parts of of Brazil have been
(+0.4m) offset by a near 2m drop in US
consumption. If the US futures markets
KEY FACTORS IN THE
getting too little rain. Many private trade are right, soya meal should be about 10% MONTHS AHEAD
estimates are lower than the USDA’s but not cheaper this time next year although, if the
all. The crops are still going in as we go to US crop does rebound, the drop will be a • South American crop weather and final
press and the weather could look up in time lot bigger than that. sowing, timing of their harvests
to keep sowing roughly on target. Argentina However, there are some mitigating bullish • The brisk pace of global soya demand
might even so a bit more than expected as factors in the current season’s supply and makes it vital that next year’s production
farmers giver up on corn planting which has price outlook for oilmeals, One is the poor forecasts do pan out
to be completed earlier. However, later than performance of other oilseed crops this year. • Key to demand is top importer China. Is
normal sowing could mean the crops arrive After two years of stagnating production, the soya meal use there slowing somewhat
a bit later than usual. world rapeseed crop is expected to drop as officials suggest are will it continue to
Two months ago, that would have made a by about 1.6m tonnes to a four year low of surprise to the upside?
lot more difference as US supplies looked in 59.3m, after disappointing yields in Europe, • Will EU/CIS rapeseed and sunflowerseed
serious danger of running out long before then the former Soviet Union and especially and Canadian canola crops perform better
end of its Sep/Aug marketing year. Now, with Canada, where the harvest has come in after a disappointing 2013, easing the onus
the larger US supplies, that looks less likely. about 2m tonnes under an earlier expected a bit on soya supplies?
If all goes well, world soyabean output record level. Current pointers suggest the • How much will the US plant in the spring?
should expand by about 28m tonnes to a FSU countries are sowing more winter rape What weather will crops get in 2013?
36 | november - december 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

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