UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference

1. Adapting to Climate Change and Addressing
Land Degradation through Sustainable Land
Management Practices in Central Asia
Alisher Mirzabaev, Ephraim Nkonya and Oliver Kirui
UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference, 10 April 2013

2. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Central Asia: a Brief Background
Intrinsic climate
variability
Considerable and
growing problems of
land degradation
Importance of
agriculture for rural
incomes
Source for the map: Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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3. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Climate Change in Central Asia
Climate variables Past Trends Future Forecasts
Temperatures increase increase
Precipitation increase no consensus
Irrigation water no trend no consensus
Weather variability high higher
Agricultural producers in Central Asia operate in intrinsically stressed
environments, which may provide them with experiences to
dynamically adapt to the ongoing changes. Adaptation is likely to
minimize the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural
production in the region (Mirzabaev 2013)
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4. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Land Degradation in Central Asia
Land degradation is estimated to cause losses reaching
up to 2 bln USD annually in Central Asia (World Bank
1998, CACILM 2006)
Land degradation was found to reduce agricultural
household incomes in the region (Aw-Hassan and
Mirzabaev 2007)
Continued land degradation in Central Asia could lead to
significant releases of CO2 to the atmosphere,
contributing to climate change (Johnson et al. 1999)
On the other hand, climate change could exacerbate
land degradation challenges in the region (Gupta et al.
2009)
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5. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Problem Statement
Land degradation is a major contemporary
environmental problem negatively affecting
agricultural production and rural livelihoods in
Central Asia.
Climate change may exacerbate land
degradation, in addition to its other potentially
negative impacts in the region.
Therefore, there is a need for adaptation
actions, including SLM technologies, policies
and institutions, which will enable to both
address land degradation and adapt to climate
change simultaneously.
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6. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Research Question and Objectives
How climate change and land
degradation may interact in Central
Asia?
Is adoption of SLM technologies
susceptible to increase rural incomes?
What are the key drivers for climate
change adaptation through adoption
of SLM technologies?
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7. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Secondary Data
Provincial scale (cross-sections = 38, time
period = 1990-2010)
Agricultural production (crop yields and areas,
input use)
Institutional variables: market access, NASA
night-time lighting intensity series
Climate variables: temperature and
precipitation. Climate variables from individual
stations spatially interpolated using inverse
distance weighting for extracting household
specific variables or province averages.
Other agro-ecological variables (soils, length of
growing period, land degradation, AEZ, farming
systems, etc)
Climate change forecasts (IPCC, ICARDA)
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8. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Primary Data
Nationally representative agricultural household
surveys (4 countries, N = 1600)
Sampling strategy: 1) random selection of
provinces within agro-ecologies, 2) random
selection of villages in each province, 3) random
selection of respondents in each village.
Sample size per country 400 respondents.
Respondents allocated per selected province
based on the share of the province in the
national agricultural GDP and total number of
agricultural producers.
Surveys conducted in 3-4 stages during the
2009-2010 cropping season to facilitate
recollection.
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9. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Joint Impacts of Climate Change and Land
Degradation on Net Agricultural Revenues
Higher weather variability in temperature and
precipitation, as well as higher plot level soil
erosion reduce net agricultural profits.
Their interaction could increase the negative
impacts, i.e. farmers operating in degraded
soils could by hit more strongly by weather
variability under climate change.
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10. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Impact of SLM adoption on Household Incomes
SLM adoption seems to lead to higher household food consumption,
especially for the poorest agricultural producers.
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11. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Drivers of SLM Adoption
Econometric analysis of household data indicated that:
SLM technologies are also serving as coping practices
against weather shocks. However, their adoption in such
cases is often in response to weather shocks rather than
pro-active and planned.
SLM adoption rates are lower among poorer households
– who are in fact more affected by land degradation and
have lower climate change adaptive capacities – which
may require supportive actions targeting SLM adoption
by the poor (but also development of poor–friendly low
cost SLM technologies)
Higher market access, diversified crop portfolio, secure
land tenure were found to lead to higher SLM adoption
rates.
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12. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Next steps
These results are obtained using farmers’ perception about
soil erosion in their field (there may be complex
behavioural endogeneity issues), so need to cross-check
using externally observed and objectively measured land
degradation indicators.
Use not only farmers perceptions, but also actually
measured indicators of land degradation (high resolution
NDVI values, ...) for assessing joint impacts of climate
change and land degradation at household level.
Account for possible endogeneity between farmers’ food
consumption expenses and adoption of SLM practices.
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13. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Key Conclusions and Policy Implications
Climate change may further exacerbate existing land
degradation challenges in Central Asia.
Most SLM practices recommended in Central Asia can also
serve as no–regret adaptation options under climate
change.
Wider applications of SLM practices is susceptible to yield
multiple benefits in terms of addressing land degradation,
adapting to climate change, improving crop yields and
raising agricultural incomes.
The Governments in the region are undertaking
considerable efforts in improving the resource use efficiency
of agriculture. These efforts should be continued to
strengthen the enabling framework for adoption of SLM
technologies through information dissemination and farmer
trainings, improved access to markets and credit, more
secure land tenure and increased opportunities for crop
diversification.
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14. Problem Definition Empirical steps and Data Results Conclusions
Aknowledgements
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