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Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management
1. Disaster Risk is a development issue
- A development approach to disaster risk assessment
and management -
Dr. Carlos Villacis and Dr. Jianping Yan
UNDP-GRIP
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
2. Today’s agenda
Part 1- Managing disaster risk – Issues and challenges
Part 2- GRIP’s approach to support countries
Part 3- Actual applications
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
3. What you should take home
• Disaster risk is a development issue
• We can control the level of risk
• All our decisions and plans have to be based on a
clear understanding of the problem
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
4. Part 1
Issues & Challenges in DRM/R
Why there is no progress in reducing disaster
impact on development
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
5. Outline
• Challenges in Development
• Challenges in DRM/R
• Some recommendations on what can be done
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
6. The impact of disasters
In 2011,
• 332 natural disasters were reported
• 30,773 persons were killed
• More than 240 million people were affected (~ 19 times Senegal’s
population!)
• USD 366.1 billion in economic damages (~ 21 times Honduras’
GDP!)
Note: These are only major reported events (≥10 killed, ≥100
affected, state of emergency, call for international assistance)
Source: Annual Disaster Statistical Review, CRED, 2011
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
7. Impact on development is
enormous...
1998 Hurricane Mitch (1998): 80% GDP of
Honduras; 49% GDP of Nicaragua
1972 Earthquake in Nicaragua: 42% GDP
1976 Earthquake in El Salvador: 31% GDP
2001 Earthquake in El Salvador: 12% GDP
2010 Earthquake in Haiti: 125% of GDP
2005 Earthquake in Pakistan: 5% GDP
2010 Flood in Pakistan: 10% GDP
When are these countries going to
develop?
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
8. Small damage, but disastrous
impacts
1987 Earthquake -
Ecuadorian Oil pipeline
Damage to the oil pipe
- 60 km Oil pipeline damaged
- 6 months no oil exports
- 70% National budget lost
- 5 year national economic Environmental Impact
recession
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
9. Disaster impact is not a point in
time/space
Development
‘88
‘90
‘92
‘94
‘96
First priority should be to prevent this from happening - DRM
Every activity, including post-disaster recovery, has to be designed
and implemented under the long-term development context
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
10. Crises have long-term, lasting
impacts…
The Impacts of the 1975 War on Lebanon’s Aviation:
- 99 million passengers lost
- 50,000 jobs lost
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
12. Global Distribution of Natural Hazards and
Poverty
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
13. What can we learn from Disasters?
- 5 Common Lessons
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
14. Lesson 1: Risk self-created by poor
planning…
San Salv
ador, 20
01
65% of total number of deaths happened at
this site
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
15. Lesson 2: Still emphasis in emergeny
response
Rescue
team to RADIUS RM Retrofit 4 schools
Turkey Plans (9 cities) in Kathmandu
Cost $1,5 m $ 2,5 m $ 45,000
time 1 week 2 years 1/2 year
Thousand
# lives saved 1 s ~ 1,500
(potentially
Methodology, Trained masons,
)
working techniques,
What remains - groups, awareness
awareness
Protect
Impact on development Protect
development - process the future
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
16. Still Emphasis is in Emergency (cont)
Mozambique - Floods 2000
• It was known - Rains heavier than normal
• Government appeal - $ 2.7 m
• International community - $ 400 K
Huge human and economic disaster
• Response and relief - $ 160 m
• Recovery and reconstruction - $ 450 m
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
17. Lesson 3: Unsafe building back
• Disaster risk has not been properly
addressed by recovery and
reconstruction processes and continue
re-building pre-disaster risk and
generating new risk
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
18. Non properly planned recovery
Reconstructing P.A.P
or re-creating
the problem?
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
19. Lesson 4: International Aid may worsen
the problem – Working only with central
govts.
• Promotes corruption and politicizes post-disaster
activities
• Does not address local needs properly
• Reduces effectiveness
From 1991 to 2004 Nicaragua received about US$ 500 million
per year in international assistance. However…
80% of public investment is paid by international assistance.
Nicaragua’s exports amount to just 30% of the country’s
imports. Permanent deficit and increasing debt.
Nicaragua remains completely dependent on foreign
assistance
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
20. Lesson 5: Lack of monitoring and
evaluation
The Mayor of Managua, Dionisio Marenco, advised more
than 5 thousand people living by the shores of lake
Xolotlán to evacuate their houses because the
Municipality has not the capacity to protect their lives
when heavy rains happen (Prensa Grafica,2005)
7 yrs after Mitch, there is no way to measure progress in risk
reduction
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
21. The Disaster-Development
Circle
Development
Development Poverty
How to
break the
Setback
circle?
Vulnerability
Disaster
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
22. Breaking the Vicious Circle
Poverty
Development
Development
Development Planning that
Planning that
Vulnerability
incorporates risk
incorporates risk
Setback management
management
Disaster
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
23. Disaster Reduction
What we can do to effectively protect
development?
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
24. Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (1)
• Shift emphasis from disaster preparedness and response to disaster
prevention through risk reduction
Disasters can and should be reduced in both the number and the extent of impacts
• Integrate risk management into public policy and development
planning
Risk management as an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and
development processes
• Move from projects to long-term programme
Long-term goals providing the necessary financial, legal, political, and social
conditions
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
25. Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (2)
• Make of technology transfer and capacity
building the first priority of cooperation
Creation of safer communities is not the responsibility of international
organizations but of the local people
• Pursue multi-stakeholder engagement
Sectors should be the key players in DRM/R.
• Measure progress and impacts
Mechanisms are needed to periodically monitor progress and evaluate
impact of the initiatives
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
26. Part 2
GRIP’s approach to support countries
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
27. The Issue in DRM/R
Understanding of the
problem
Risk Assessment
Proper Planning
Evidence-based decision
making
Disaster Risk Reduction +
Safe Development
Processes
Effective Actions
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
28. Effective Risk Management
• Learn from the past (disaster loss information)
– Causes, vulnerabilities, response, long-term impacts
• Accurately estimate future losses (risk assessment)
– Estimate potential losses accurately, make informed
decisions
• Risk Management
– Acceptable risk level
– Risk reduction capacity
– Risk transfer Insurance, other ways
– Monitoring of changes
– Evaluation of strategies Corrections
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
29. Why Risk Assessment?
• To understand the problem
– Size
– Characteristics
– Distribution
– Causes
– Feasible solutions Strategies
• To monitor progress
– Impact
– Efficiency
• To evaluate strategies
– What is working and what is not?
– Necessary corrections
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
30. Role of Risk Assessment
Understanding of the
problem
Risk Assessment
Cost/benefit analyses Monitoring
Risk assessment Risk assessment
Proper Planning
Informed decision making
Disaster Risk
Reduction
Effective Actions
Evaluation
Risk assessment
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
31. How Risk Assessment should be done
• Risk is dynamic and changing over time, due to:
– Climate change
– Environmental degradation
– Urbanization
• Risk Assessment is a continuous process
– Periodic Monitoring and evaluation
– Sustainable
– Multi-stakeholder engagement
– Capable of being improved New information
• Not a one-time effort
• Done by Local institutions (Capacity development is the only way
to guarantee sustainability)
• Produces solutions (no numbers or nice-looking reports/maps)
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
32. Summary
• Risk management MUST be an integral component of every development
decision in order to break the vicious disaster-development circle.
• The basis of effective DRM is a clear understanding of the problem and of the
effectiveness of the potential solutions based on evidence-based risk
assessment.
• Risk assessment needs to engage policy/decision makers, stakeholders, and
risk analysts throughout its entire process.
• Risk assessment is NOT a one-time effort but a continuous process of
understanding the risks a country or a society is facing.
• Risk assessment has to produce practical, effective solutions. It is not an
isolated technical activity to produce reports and maps.
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
33. Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP)
- Official Platform for Implementation of HFA’s Priority II -
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
34. DRA at UNDP-GRIP
Mission:
“Better risk information for sound decision making”
Objectives:
•To improve the quality of disaster and risk information
•To ensure its use in disaster risk management and
development planning
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
35. DRA in Countries – Information Needs
– Learning from the past: to understand their vulnerabilities, high-
affected areas, and recovery capacities, etc.
– Basic risk information for setting up DRR baselines: to set up
measurable goals and prepare evidence-based DRR strategies
– Monitoring and evaluation mechanisms: to measure progress
and revise strategies
– Local Capacity: To produce realistic and locally supported
solutions and ensure sustainability
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
36. DRA Solutions Package
– Baseline for Risk Assessment (CSA): Assessment of what
already exists and identification of gaps and needs
– National Disaster Observatories: sustainable institutions for
systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of disaster info
– National Risk Assessments: multi-hazard risk evaluations to
delineate national DRM strategies, policies, programmes,
budget allocation
– Local Risk Assessments: assessments to support urban risk
reduction policies and actions
– Capacity Development: all the work is done by local
institutions, authorities and experts
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
37. DRA in Countries – A Road Map
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Preparation Assessment Applications
National Disaster •
National Disaster National DRM/R
Observatory Master Plan and
Loss Database
Strategy
National Risk
Assessment • Strong National
DRM/R System
Country Situation National Risk
Analysis (CSA) Information System • Pre-Disaster
Shelter Plan
• Scenario-based
Contingency
Local Risk Plan
Assessment • DRM/R Action
Plan
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
38. DRA in Countries: The Total Solution
Country Situation Analysis National e-Library
(CSA) National Disaster
National Risk Assessment Observatory (NDO)
(NRA) National Risk
Local Risk Assessment Information System
(LRA) (NRIS)
Disaster Analysis &
Mapping (DAM)
National workshops
Readiness development
DRA Programme CERAM =
CERAM Establishment Centre of Excellence for Risk
Assessment and Management
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
39. Assistance provided by UNDP-
GRIP
• Methodologies and tools
• Training
• Technical advice: technical, policy making
• Coordination and overview
• Interaction with other countries
• Access to financial support
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
40. Methodologies and training
South Asia - Colombo
- March- 2009
- 60 participants
- 7 countries
• Methodologies
• Guidelines
• Standards
• Training modules
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
42. Sustainable Capacity for DRA
Centers of Excellence for Risk
Assessment and Management -
CERAMs
GRIP CERAM Shanghai
Baja California, Mexico
UEM, Mozambique
NSET, Nepal
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
43. Implementation - Support activities
15 aspects of support within the typical UNDP project cycle:
• Project conception
– Overall vision on DRR based on risk assessment
– Preparation of concept notes
• Project definition
– Scoping workshop
– Proposal development
– Review and evaluation of technical proposals
• Project initiation
– Project document finalization
– Access to financial support
– Interaction with other countries,
• Project implementation
– coordination and overview
– Provision of appropriate methodologies and tools
– hands-on trainings
– technical support and advice
– monitoring and review,
• Project closing
– result review and evaluation, closing workshop.
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
44. Country Support and Services
As of 01/2012
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
45. Part 3
Applications of Risk Assessment
• Risk assessment for Climate Change Adaptation
• Support to humanitarian activities –Pre-Disaster Shelter
Planning
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
46. Climate change adaptation
Arequipa-Peru
Dimensions:
15 km: East - West
8 km: North - Sur
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
47. The problem
Nevado
Coropuna
glacier
coverage for
1955 (outline in
black) and
2003 (in orange
outer
boundary).
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
48. Glacial retreat – Nevado Coropuna
140
122.7
120 105.2
96.95
100
2)
80
63.99
56.7 Adaptation
60
m
A
k
a
e
r
(
40
20
0
1955 1975 1985 1996 2003
Years
Coropuna
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
49. Tangible results
Incorporation of
adaptation in
development
plans
Guidelines for CC adaptation
in agricultural poduction
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
50. Concrete measures
implemented
3 water and irrigation systems that
optimize water usage
15 community silos to store food
5 mini-reservoirs
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
51. Introduction of CCA in
education
4 textbooks “Knowing my world to adapt myself to climate
change”.
Implementation by Official resolution of climate change in all
the public educational institutions (pre-school and elementary
school)
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
52. Mainstreaming CCA in daily life
- 1 climatolandia board game.
- 1 climate ludo game
- 3 brochures “The Coropuna and climate change”
- Climate change “Takiy Kausaypaq” Songbook
- 2 radio stations engaged: Radio Ispacas “The
Coropuna time” y Radio Pampacolca (radio spots).
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
53. State strategy for
CCA
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
54. Replication in other areas of Peru
Estrategias aprobadas 3 Junín, Amazonas y Lambayeque
Estrategias en 3 Tumbes y Lima
aprobación
Estrategias en 5 Arequipa, Ayacucho, Callao, La Libertad y
formulación Apurímac, Cusco
Estrategias en etapa 4 Loreto, Piura, San Martín y Cajamarca
inicial
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
56. Support to humanitarian
activities
Risk Mapping for Strategic Planning of Shelter
Response in Tijuana, Baja California, México.
AGREEMENT OF COOPERATION
between
UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME
Antonio Rosquillas and Luis CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN
H. AYUNTAMIENTO
TIJUANA B.C.
Moreno CIENTÍFICA Y DE EDUCACIÓN
SUPERIOR DE ENSENADA.
Municipio de Tijuana
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
57. 6 possible earthquakes
MUNICIPIO
DE
TIJUANA B.C.
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
58. Damage Evaluation
Estimated distribution
of buildings damage Color
Automatic Range Manual Range
ID
From To From To
a 0 18 0 18
c c
b 18 35 18 35
c c c c 35 53 35 53
c c c c c d 53 70 53 70
c d c c c
b d d c c c b
c c c c c c b a b c
a c c c b c c c c c b
a a a c c c c b c c d c b c
b a a c c c b b c c c d c b a
c b b b c c a a c c d d c b a
a b c b c b a a b c b c b c b
a a b a b a a a a a b c a b b
a a a a a a a a a a b
a a a a a a a a a a b b
a a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a a b a
a a a a a a a a a a a b b a
a a b a a a a a a b a b b b
a a a a b b a a a b b b b b a a
a a a b b b b a a b a a b a a a
a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a a a
a a a a a a
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
59. Results
SAB CEN CTO CCO CVE LME PRE OTA PLA TAB Total
EQ1 10,000 4,622 8,917 3,282 1,226 5,839 7,276 4,497 6,372 6,246 58,277
EQ2 12,392 4,593 6,853 3,661 3,184 7,012 8,576 3,341 5,335 9,503 64,449
EQ3 3,025 2,792 1,942 2,400 1,360 2,751 8,457 1,266 947 3,648 28,588
EQ4 12,465 10,140 11,085 6,676 1,703 9,942 15,133 7,984 6,019 10,169 91,316
EQ5 4,986 4,504 2,900 4,289 2,581 5,317 16,561 1,993 1,456 6,338 50,925
EQ6 6,411 6,063 5,761 3,581 1,032 4,979 8,437 3,985 3,216 4,979 48,444
Number of persons with shelter needs estimated
for the six earthquake scenarios
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
60. Shelter plan uploaded on Google
Map
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org
61. Simulation exercise with all sectors of
society 18 – September –
2009
Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP, info@gripweb.org, http://www.gripweb.org