Hossein TEIMOORI1, Reza BATHAEE2 1NIS CERT, Tehran, Iran; 2INDM Conference (Founder), Tehran, Iran

1. FMEA,
Most common Risk Assessment Method in Industry
Hossein Teimoori
NISCERT

2. FMEA
History
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3. Automotive inductry 1950-1970
Cost American
Time
4 Design Mass production

4. Definitions
Risk
combination of the likelihood of an occurrence of
a hazardous event or exposure(s) and the severity
of impacts
Risk Assessment
process of evaluating the risks arising from a
hazards, taking into account the adequacy of any
existing controls, and deciding whether or not the
risks is acceptable
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5. Risk Assessment Methods
Qualitative
•Heuristic Quantative
•Estimation based •Scientific
•Fast •Precise
•Time Taking
RA Types
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6. FMEA procedure
List potential failure/emergency modes
Describe impacts of the failures
Determine failure severity
Review
Determine Likelihood of failure
Determine detection rate of failure
Prioritize the cases based on RPNs
Take action to reduce the risks
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7. 15

8. Continual Improvement Cycle
Plan
Act Do
Check

9. Risk Assessment Table
(FMEA worksheet)
Act/ Failures Failures Failures S O Present D R Action New
P
Opt modes Effects Root Cause control N Plans RPN
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10. FMEA Applications
Environment Heath & Safety Quality
Information Business Others
Security Continuity
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11. Failure Mode
Failure Mode = Environmental Aspect
 Unwanted conditions or cases that one system,
product, process, etc may encounter.
 Examples :
 Gas Emission
 Water Pollution
 Animals Migration
 Soil Pollution
 Resource Consumption
 Etc
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12. Risk Assessment Table
Opt Env. Impact S O Current D RPN Action Target
Aspect Controls Plans Situation
S O D RPN
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13. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission
Death of
on
People …
Oil Soil Loses
Spread Cultavability
on Soil for 1 year
Transp Air pollution
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing
Emission disease
Fuel Use of more
Consump oil feilds
21 tion

14. Impacts Severity
Catastrophic
Major Probable
Severity
1 3 4 6 7 9 10
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Severity Rating

15. Severity Reference Table
Rank Definition 1
1 - Uses natural resources at the standard level
- Temporary effect (less than a day) or neglect able ones
2 - Uses natural resources more than 1 less than 10 times than standard level
- Adverse effect remains more than 1 day less than 1 month
- Creates short term (max 3 day) lasting damages to people
3 - Uses natural resources 10 times more than standard level
- Creates long lasting but returnable damages to people
- Adverse effect remains more than 1 month less than year
4 -Creates non-returnable damage to people
- Kills Animals, Plants,
- Adverse effect remains more than 1 year
- Breaks local regulations
5 - Kills People
- Breaks national, regional or int’l regulations
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16. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5
Death of
on
People …
Oil Soil Loses
Spread Cultavability 3
on Soil for 1year
Transp Air pollution
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3
Emission disease
Fuel Use of more
Consump oil fields 2
24 tion

17. Occurrence Likelihood of a Failure Mode
 Likelihood of happening of a failure mode
 An example:
Very Remote Occasional Probable Frequent
unlikely
-3 -2 -1 0 1
Frequency
10 10 10 10 10 year
Logarithmic scale
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18. Likelihood Reference Table
Rank Definition 1
1 Max once in the last 10 years
2 2 to 10 times in the last 10 years
3 11 to 20 times in the last 10 year-
4 21 to 50 times in the last
5 51to 100 times in the last 10 year-
6 101 to 200 times in the last 10 year-
7 201 to 300 times in the last 10 year-
8 301 to 500 times in the last 10 year-
9 501 to 1000 times in the last 10 year-
10 > 1000 times in the last 10 year-
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19. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5 3
Death of
on
People …
Oil Soil Loses
Spread Cultavability 3 7
on Soil for 1year
Transp Air pollution
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3 10
Emission disease
Fuel Use of more
Consump oil fields 2 10
27 tion

20. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air Online H2s
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5 3 sensor in
Death of stack
on
People … flare+alarm
Oil Soil Loses Daily check
Spread Cultavability 3 7
by inspector
on Soil for 1year visually
Transp Air pollution Annual
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3 10 check by
Emission disease human and
machine
Fuel Seasonal
Use of more
Consump oil fields 2 10 check by
tion human and
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machine

21. Detection Reference Table
Rank Definition 1
1 Online machine-based system
2 Online man & machine based system
3 Machine-based system with hourly check period-
4 Machine-based system with daily check period-
Online human-based checks-
5 human-based checks with hourly to daily-
Machine based system with 1-7 day check period-
6 Machine based system with > week check period-
Human based check with wider check period
7 No system-
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22. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air Online H2s
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5 3 sensor in 1
Death of stack
on
People … flare+alarm
Oil Soil Loses Daily check
Spread Cultavability 3 7
by inspector 5
on Soil for 1year visually
Transp Air pollution Annual
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3 10 check by 5
Emission disease human and
machine
Fuel Seasonal
Use of more
Consump oil fields 2 10 check by 4
tion human and
30
machine

23. Risk Priority Number
 The risk related to a failure mode is a function of the
“SEVERITY” , “OCCURRENCE” and “DETECTION” of
that failure mode. In other word:
RPN = SEVERITY x OCCURRENCE x DETECTION
o The smaller the better, The larger the worse
o Sharing numbers between companies and groups is difficult
and can be specific to the application
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24. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air Online H2s
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5 3 sensor in 1 15
Death of stack
on
People … flare+alarm
Oil Soil Loses Daily check
Spread Cultavability 3 7 125
by inspector 5
on Soil for 1year visually
Transp Air pollution Annual
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3 10 check by 5 150
Emission disease human and
machine
Fuel Seasonal
Use of more
Consump oil fields 2 10 check by 4 80
tion human and
32
machine

25. RPN
85%
80
% Locked-In Cost
out of Total RPN
60
40
20
12%
3%
RPN 1 RPN 2 RPN 3
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26. Risk Assessment Table
Severe Air Online H2s
Oil H2s Gas
Pollution..
Extracti Emission 5 3 sensor in 1 15
Death of stack
on
People … flare+alarm
Oil Soil Loses Daily check
3 7 Action 1
Spread Cultavability by inspector 5 125 Action 2 3 3 2 18
on Soil for 1year visually Action 3
Transp Air pollution Annual
ortation CO2 Gas …Breathing 3 10 check by 5 150 Action 4 3 5 4 60
Emission disease human and Action 5
machine
Fuel Seasonal
Use of more
Consump oil fields 2 10 check by 4 80
tion human and
34
machine

27. Team members
 The Risk Assessment team must be
 “cross-functional” and is suggested to include:
 Projectmanager
 Design engineers
 Environmental experts
 Finance
 workers
 consultants
 neighbours
 any other relevant/responsible person
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28. Pros and Cons
 Pros:
 FMEA is a very structured and reliable method for
evaluating hardware and systems
 The concept and application are very easy to learn,
even by a notice
 The approach makes evaluating the complex
systems easy
 Etc
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29. Pros and Cons
 Cons:
 The FMEA process is tedious and time-consuming
and sometimes expensive
 The approach is not suitable for multiple features
 It’s easy to forget human errors in analysis
 Etc
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30. Critical Issue
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31. Thank you
 Hossein Teimoori:
 H.teimoori@nis-cert.com
 Management System Analyst
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