Brian G. MCADOO, Nicole KRENITSKY, Jared AUGENSTEIN, Matthew ZELTZER Yale-NUS College, Singapore

1. How do geohazards affect
mortality and economic losses?
Brian G. McAdoo, Nicole Krenitsky, Jared
Augenstein, Matt Zeltzer, and Ming-Wen An

2. Natural disaster summary, 1900-2010
(EM-DAT, 2012)
this study
2000-2009
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

3. Furcy
Above Port-au-Prince, Haiti
May 2010

4. Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Magnitude 7.0
80,000-310,000 dead
May 2010

5. San Francisco Bay Port-au-Prince
1989 ‘Loma Prieta’ 2010 Haiti
• M=7.1 • M=7.0
•7.4 M exposed population • 10 M in Haiti
• 6,688 p/km2 (SF) • 28,353 p/km2 (P-au-P)
• 63 deaths • 300,000 deaths
• Bay Area GDP- $300 B • Haiti GDP- $11 B
• $5.6 B in losses • $8 B in losses
•42 Fire Stations • 2 Fire Stations in Haiti

6. Port-au-Prince
GDP GDP

7. Atmospheric
Cyclone Nargis-
25000
138,366 deaths deaths 1000000
$1,300 per capita GDP damage trend damages
y = 0.17x0.68 100000
Estimated Damage (US$ Million)
R² = 0.15
20000
10000
1000
15000
Deaths
100
10
10000
1
5000 mortality trend 0.1
y = -87.66ln(x) + 1135
R² = 0.0006 0.01
0 0.001
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP per capita (2000 US$)

8. Surface
1400 deaths 100000
damages
damage trend
y = 0.68x0.49 10000
1200
Estimated Damage (US$ Million)
R² = 0.09
1000
1000
100
800
Deaths
10
600
1
400
mortality trend 0.1
y = -28.0n(x) + 280
200 R² = 0.08 0.01
0 0.001
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP per capita (2000 US$)

9. Tectonic
180000 100000
deaths
Indian Ocean Tsunami damages
160000
Estimated Damage (US$ Million)
10000
140000
y = 1.452x0.4917
1000
R² = 0.07268
120000
Deaths
100000 100
80000 10
60000
1
40000
y = -1721ln(x) + 17463 0.1
20000
R² = 0.01758
0 0.01
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP per capita (2000 US$)

10. What about the hazard?
Geohazard lower income
nation
higher income
nation
increasing mortality
increasing economic losses

11. 1
All Disasters
Drought
Death (log scale, normalized)
Earthquake High per capita GDP
Extreme Temperature Low per capita GDP
Flood
10-1 Mass Movement
Storm
Volcano
Wildfire
10-2
10-3
no deaths
10-5 10 -4 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 1
Economic Loss (log scale, normalized)

12. Medium income nations
High
Low income nations income nations
GDP/capita US $2,500 <GDP/capita > US $10,000
< US $2,500 GDP/capita < US 10,000
n=658 n=380
n=182
Drought
Earthquake
Extreme Temperature
Flood
Mass Movement
Storm
Volcano
Wildfire
no deaths

13. 1 0.8
Drought (n=61)
0.6
Disaster Type
Atmospheric Hazards
0.5 Drought
0.4
Extreme Temperature
0.3
Storm
0.2
(log scale, normalized)
0.1
0.07
Drought (n=61)
0.05
0.04
Extreme Temperature (n=25)
10-1
0.03
0.02
Storm (n=473)
Deaths
0.01
0.007
0.005
0.004
0.003
Number Killed
normalized
0.002
0.001
10-2 0.0007
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
1 Disaster Subtype
0.0001
0.7 Cold wav e
0.00007 0.5 Extreme winter conditions
Cold wave (n=8)
0.4 Heat wav e
0.00005 0.3
0.00004
0.2
0.00003
10-3 0.00002 0.1
0.07
Extreme winter (n=3)
Heat wave (n=14)
0.05
0.04
0.00001 0.03
0.000007 0.02
0.000005
Deaths
0.000004 0.01
0.007
0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.005
10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1
0.004
Number Killed
Estimated Damage Normalized 0.003
normalized
0.002
Economic Loss 0.001
0.0007
0.0005
(log scale, normalized)
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.00007
0.00005
0.00004
0.00003
0.00002
0.00001
80 0.000007
y = -1.4x + 64
0.000005
0.000004
number of disasters
70
0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
R² = 0.21 Estimated Damage Normalized
60 Extratropical cyclone (n=39)
50 Local storm (n=165) z
Tropical cyclone (n=269)
40
30
20
10
0
Economic Loss

14. Flash flood (n=89)
1 1
0.7
Disaster Type
General flood (n=378)
Surface Hazards
f lood
0.5
Coastal flood (n=13)
0.4 Mass Mov ement
0.3 Wildf ire
0.2
(log scale, normalized)
0.1 Flood (n=480)
Mass movements (n=23)
0.07
0.05
0.1
0.04
0.03
0.02
Wildfire (n=43)
Deaths
0.01
0.007
0.005
0.004
Number Killed
0.003
normalized
0.002
0.001 0.001
0.0007
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.00007
Avalanche (n=1)
Landslide (n=22)
0.00005
0.00004
0.0001
0.00003
0.00002
0.00001
0.000007
Deaths
0.000005
0.000004
0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.00001 0.0001 0.001
Estimated Damage Normalized
0.01 0.1 1
Economic Loss
(log scale, normalized)
Brush fire (n=2)
number of disasters
80 y = -2.22x + 66.8
R² = 0.31 Forest fire (n=33)
70
Grassland fire (n=8)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Economic Loss

15. 1 1
Disaster Type
Tectonic Hazards
0.7
Earthquake (seismic activ ity )
0.5
0.4 Volcano
0.3
0.2
Earthquake (n=108)
(log scale, normalized)
0.1
0.07
0.05
0.04
Volcano (n=7) Earthquake (n=95)
0.1 0.03
0.02
Tsunami (n=13)
0.01
Deaths
0.007
0.005
0.004
Number Killed
0.003
normalized
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.0007
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.00007
0.00005
0.00004
Deaths
0.0001
0.00003
0.00002
0.00001
0.000007
0.000005
0.000004
0.000001 0.000003 0.000005 0.00001 0.00003 0.00006 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.00001 0.0001 0.001
Estimated Damage Normalized
0.01 0.1 1
Economic Loss Volcano (n=7)
(log scale, normalized)
20
y = -0.38x + 13.6
18 R² = 0.07
number of disasters
16
14
12
10
8
6
4 Economic Loss
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

16. Earthquakes affect poorer nations with higher
mortality and comparatively less economics
losses.
Port-au-Prince, Haiti
May 2010

17. Extreme temperatures affect wealthy
countries disproportionately- higher
mortality and economic losses.
In the ‘global south’ temperature swings
aren’t so extreme.

18. Storms in wealthy nations have higher
economic losses and poorer nations higher
mortality from storms that cause a similar level
of economic loss.

19. Floods are responsible for the most disasters-
wealthy nations limit death toll while
economic losses continue to climb.

20. Mass movements affect poor
countries almost exclusively

21. Wildfires affect wealthy nations
exclusively- perhaps those with
aggressive fire suppression programs
like the United States.

22. Nächste Halten
• Better data!
• Longer time window…
• Poll nations on DRR spending
– What constitutes DRR spending?
– Are priorities appropriate?

23. Banda Aceh, 2009
mitigation
resilience
risk = (hazard x vulnerability / resilience) - mitigation

24. functionally useless in near field works in near field
> $60 M 2 chickens Asili
+/- a goat Am. Samoa