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IMPLICATIONS OF
 THE GREAT EASTERN JAPAN
        EARTHQUAKE
            FOR
 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT


           Hirokazu Tatano
Disaster Prevention Research Institute
       (DPRI), Kyoto University
Our models are based on
the assumption that each
segment moves
separately.
農林水産省・国土交通省
Development of sea walls and their damages

                                             Sea wall height determined by Tsunami   Sea wall height determined by Storm surge
                                                      Iwate                    Miyagi            Fukushima
Otsuchi Town
Not only wooden but also steal
buildings suffered damage.
                                                Town office was also damaged.
Impacts
• Dead and Missing: 16,019 and 3,805
• Housing: 118,821 (collapsed) , 181,801(half-
  collapsed)
• Tsunami Inundated Area: 507 km2
• Direct Damage: USD about 200 billion
   (16.9 trillion JPYen)(without Nuclear Power plant failure)
• Total Economic Loss may exceeds USD
  500~600 billion
Economic Impact of Tsunami
• Direct losses
   – Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry:
      USD 17 Billon ( USD 9 billion, USD 7 billion, USD 1 billion)
   – Industries:
     USD 60-110 Billion by Tsunami
     [production capital USD 900 billion (Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima)]
• Cascading Effect through supply chain, e.g., Automobile, IT industries, even
  for Construction Industries
• Electric Power Shortage:
 TEPCO: 6000->3400MW (5500to be increased by summer)

Insurance Payout:
 1.163 trillion JPN (Households Earthquake Insurance, as of Oct. 12 )
   529 billion JPN (JA Kyosai (Zenkyoren) as of July 19)
     →Muteki bond (sponsored by Munich Re) can reduce $300 million
        losses. (insurance insider April 4 2011)
Features of the event
• Large Spatial Scale
  – Preparation is not enough
  – Huge causality, economic losses
  – Difficulty in coordinating response, relief and
    recovery
• Complex
  – Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear, NaTech, etc.
• Cascading Impacts
  – Production Capacity Decrease, Supply
    Chain Disruption, Shortage of Goods and
    Services
Shortage of Material Supply



Compound Wood Board                            Ofunato has large share.

                                              Shinetsu Chemical and Kaneka
Plastic Vinyl Chloride                        is stopping their production.
        Polyethylen /                         Mitsubishi Chemical group at Kashima
        Polypropylene                         and Chiba stops their production.


        heat insulator
     synthetic rubber                         A part of JSR Kashima starts production.




                                                               4/12 Nikkei
                                                               日経新聞朝刊
What happened in Kashima Port Area?

                                                          Petro refinery

                                                                naphtha

                                              Chemical industry A
                                                             Mitsubishi Chemical

                                                             Co. D
                              JSR     Co. A


                                      Co. B      Co. C       Co. C           Co. E

                                                            Shinetsu        Kaneka
                                                            chemical
Liquefaction, ground motion and Tsunami affects production facility heavily at
Kashima Port area. Cascading impact of stoppage of naphtha was critical and
affected to many companies located at the port area.
Gasoline shortage occurred and turned to be one of the
  major obstacles of rescue and recovery activities



                           • Fuel storage stations, oil
                             refinery facilities were
                             affected by the EQ.
                           • Although the highways
                             recovered relatively quickly,
                             gasoline shortages for two
                             weeks.
                           • Capacity of transportation
                             was limited by the shortage
                             of gasoline.
Hazard Map
Distribution of the killed people
Capacity building: Disaster Education
                                        “Kamaishi Miracle”
                                        •Prof. Katada, Gumma University
                                        and his group have spend eight
                                        years for disaster education for
                                        elementary and junior high school.
                                        •All the pupils under the control of
                                        schools are saved in entire
                                        Kamaishi City.




What he taught:
(1) Not believe hazard scenario (map)
(2) Spend best effort for survive
(3) Behave as a “leading evacuator”
Immediate response
• Evacuation: Very few children were killed
  under the control of nursery.
  – Nursery should make practice of evacuation
   drill once in a month.

     No new things can be done during
     disaster.
     Pupils of Kamaishi said, “We can save our lives
     because of the drill and practice of evacuation
     before the event. We think it was a result of the
     practice, not a miracle.”
Major Lessons : Planning and
         Management Aspect
• Reduce “expected surprise,” by taking account of all
  the possible consequences for designing DRM Plans
  and contingency plans.
• Integrated Disaster Risk Management is needed:
   – Structural + Nonstructural Measures taking account of
     “Excess Design Forces.”
      • Eg. Tsunami protection walls reduced impact when they are not
        destroyed even Tsunami exceeds
      • Capacity building through disaster education is very important

• Implementation of IDRM is a big challenge:
   – Governance Issues: multiple authorities, governments,
     NGOs, Citizens
      • Eg. Raising elevation of highways: who covers the cost, who
        decide the elevation of the road.
Why we have “expected surprise”?
• Design external force is used for facility design.
• If the actual external force exceeds the design
  force, it is not a responsibility of the authority.
No authority don’t want to take risk by considering
  force exceeding the design force.
→ This leads to “cliff-edge fragility” problem (Kameda
  2011) .
Four Nuclear power plants are
          affected
Nuclear Power Plant
               Fukushima No.1
TEPCO assumed to have a
maximum Tsunami height at
5.7m. TEPCO made a internal
research draft which reported
Maximum Tsunami height can
reach at 15.7m in 2008 but
they reported Nuclear Power
Authority on March 7th 2011.

 Unfortunately, TEPCO loose the chance for installing additional Tsunami
 Countermeasures and the Tsunami on March 11th run-up height reached
 to 15m and Tsunami washed away functionality of the emergency diesel
 power generator.
Tokai Dai Ni
         Nuclear Power plant
In 2009.9, they modified
the design tsunami
height (4.86m→5.7m)
based on revised
Tsunami hazard
assessment by the
Ibaragi Pref. (2008.9)
and had start
constructing of Tsunami
protection wall for        At march 11th, two of the
emergency diesel           emergency diesel power
building (6.1m).           generator was saved
                           and kept functionality.
Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world
From Cliff-edge to Smooth
                  Fragility (Kameda, 2011)
                          Cliff-
   Prob. malfunctioning




                          edge




                                              Hazard level
Allowing uncertainty of functionality of countermeasures for excess
external forces, we should increase the coping capacity of the facility
against natural hazards.
Exceeding external forces
• Safety is a fundamental needs of citizen.
• Design and evaluation standard gradually
  were getting considering “exceeding
  external forces.”
  – Robust sea wall and break water design
  – Robust river dykes
  – Seismic design: economic efficiency
    investigation
農林水産省・国土交通省
Development of sea walls and their damages

                                             Sea wall height determined by Tsunami   Sea wall height determined by Storm surge
                                                      Iwate                    Miyagi            Fukushima
How sea wall collapsed?
Improvement of sea walls’
       resiliency
To establish the design method for
 Integrated Disaster Risk Management
• Change scope of design: not only a facility
  but also non-structural measures, i.e.,
  integrated countermeasures
• Evaluate the functionality of the integrated
  countermeasures at all the possible
  consequences.
• Recognize and prepare for the worst
  consequences
Renovation Plan of Sendai City(仙台市)
                                                      Protection against
                                                      maximum Tsunami

                                                      Protection against
                        Park(mold)
                                                      Tsunami once in one
                                                      hundred and several
    Highway   Highway                                 ten years
                                      Multiple protection lines:
                                      Sea walls, river dykes, raising elevation
                                      of highways

                       Land use       Land use regulation:
                      regulation:     Areas where expected Tsunami depth
                     Restriction of   exceeds 2m are designated as “Sakigai
                    construction of   Kiken Kuiki” (Disaster Prone Zones). In
                        houses.       the area, construction of buildings for the
                                      purpose for living is prohibited.

                                      Evacuation Shelters and Routes:
                                      Mounded parks closer to sea
                                      shore, high-rise building as a shelter
Challenges
• Establish the methodology to evaluate
  integrated countermeasures:
  – Decision making under ambiguity New method?
  – Maximizing Net Benefit subject to social safety
    requirement (Live-safety) Conditional optimization?
  – Benefit should cover reduction of business
    interruption losses (economic impacts)
       need for an integrated framework of economic
    impact assessment!
• Establishing Better Risk Governance
  – Who takes responsibility for the safety against natural
    hazards?
  – Can we achieve it by enhancing public private
    partnership?
Thank you for your attention!



• E-mail: tatano@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world

  • 1. IMPLICATIONS OF THE GREAT EASTERN JAPAN EARTHQUAKE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Hirokazu Tatano Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University
  • 2. Our models are based on the assumption that each segment moves separately.
  • 3. 農林水産省・国土交通省 Development of sea walls and their damages Sea wall height determined by Tsunami Sea wall height determined by Storm surge Iwate Miyagi Fukushima
  • 4. Otsuchi Town Not only wooden but also steal buildings suffered damage. Town office was also damaged.
  • 5. Impacts • Dead and Missing: 16,019 and 3,805 • Housing: 118,821 (collapsed) , 181,801(half- collapsed) • Tsunami Inundated Area: 507 km2 • Direct Damage: USD about 200 billion (16.9 trillion JPYen)(without Nuclear Power plant failure) • Total Economic Loss may exceeds USD 500~600 billion
  • 6. Economic Impact of Tsunami • Direct losses – Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry: USD 17 Billon ( USD 9 billion, USD 7 billion, USD 1 billion) – Industries: USD 60-110 Billion by Tsunami [production capital USD 900 billion (Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima)] • Cascading Effect through supply chain, e.g., Automobile, IT industries, even for Construction Industries • Electric Power Shortage: TEPCO: 6000->3400MW (5500to be increased by summer) Insurance Payout: 1.163 trillion JPN (Households Earthquake Insurance, as of Oct. 12 ) 529 billion JPN (JA Kyosai (Zenkyoren) as of July 19) →Muteki bond (sponsored by Munich Re) can reduce $300 million losses. (insurance insider April 4 2011)
  • 7. Features of the event • Large Spatial Scale – Preparation is not enough – Huge causality, economic losses – Difficulty in coordinating response, relief and recovery • Complex – Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear, NaTech, etc. • Cascading Impacts – Production Capacity Decrease, Supply Chain Disruption, Shortage of Goods and Services
  • 8. Shortage of Material Supply Compound Wood Board Ofunato has large share. Shinetsu Chemical and Kaneka Plastic Vinyl Chloride is stopping their production. Polyethylen / Mitsubishi Chemical group at Kashima Polypropylene and Chiba stops their production. heat insulator synthetic rubber A part of JSR Kashima starts production. 4/12 Nikkei 日経新聞朝刊
  • 9. What happened in Kashima Port Area? Petro refinery naphtha Chemical industry A Mitsubishi Chemical Co. D JSR Co. A Co. B Co. C Co. C Co. E Shinetsu Kaneka chemical Liquefaction, ground motion and Tsunami affects production facility heavily at Kashima Port area. Cascading impact of stoppage of naphtha was critical and affected to many companies located at the port area.
  • 10. Gasoline shortage occurred and turned to be one of the major obstacles of rescue and recovery activities • Fuel storage stations, oil refinery facilities were affected by the EQ. • Although the highways recovered relatively quickly, gasoline shortages for two weeks. • Capacity of transportation was limited by the shortage of gasoline.
  • 12. Distribution of the killed people
  • 13. Capacity building: Disaster Education “Kamaishi Miracle” •Prof. Katada, Gumma University and his group have spend eight years for disaster education for elementary and junior high school. •All the pupils under the control of schools are saved in entire Kamaishi City. What he taught: (1) Not believe hazard scenario (map) (2) Spend best effort for survive (3) Behave as a “leading evacuator”
  • 14. Immediate response • Evacuation: Very few children were killed under the control of nursery. – Nursery should make practice of evacuation drill once in a month. No new things can be done during disaster. Pupils of Kamaishi said, “We can save our lives because of the drill and practice of evacuation before the event. We think it was a result of the practice, not a miracle.”
  • 15. Major Lessons : Planning and Management Aspect • Reduce “expected surprise,” by taking account of all the possible consequences for designing DRM Plans and contingency plans. • Integrated Disaster Risk Management is needed: – Structural + Nonstructural Measures taking account of “Excess Design Forces.” • Eg. Tsunami protection walls reduced impact when they are not destroyed even Tsunami exceeds • Capacity building through disaster education is very important • Implementation of IDRM is a big challenge: – Governance Issues: multiple authorities, governments, NGOs, Citizens • Eg. Raising elevation of highways: who covers the cost, who decide the elevation of the road.
  • 16. Why we have “expected surprise”? • Design external force is used for facility design. • If the actual external force exceeds the design force, it is not a responsibility of the authority. No authority don’t want to take risk by considering force exceeding the design force. → This leads to “cliff-edge fragility” problem (Kameda 2011) .
  • 17. Four Nuclear power plants are affected
  • 18. Nuclear Power Plant Fukushima No.1 TEPCO assumed to have a maximum Tsunami height at 5.7m. TEPCO made a internal research draft which reported Maximum Tsunami height can reach at 15.7m in 2008 but they reported Nuclear Power Authority on March 7th 2011. Unfortunately, TEPCO loose the chance for installing additional Tsunami Countermeasures and the Tsunami on March 11th run-up height reached to 15m and Tsunami washed away functionality of the emergency diesel power generator.
  • 19. Tokai Dai Ni Nuclear Power plant In 2009.9, they modified the design tsunami height (4.86m→5.7m) based on revised Tsunami hazard assessment by the Ibaragi Pref. (2008.9) and had start constructing of Tsunami protection wall for At march 11th, two of the emergency diesel emergency diesel power building (6.1m). generator was saved and kept functionality.
  • 21. From Cliff-edge to Smooth Fragility (Kameda, 2011) Cliff- Prob. malfunctioning edge Hazard level Allowing uncertainty of functionality of countermeasures for excess external forces, we should increase the coping capacity of the facility against natural hazards.
  • 22. Exceeding external forces • Safety is a fundamental needs of citizen. • Design and evaluation standard gradually were getting considering “exceeding external forces.” – Robust sea wall and break water design – Robust river dykes – Seismic design: economic efficiency investigation
  • 23. 農林水産省・国土交通省 Development of sea walls and their damages Sea wall height determined by Tsunami Sea wall height determined by Storm surge Iwate Miyagi Fukushima
  • 24. How sea wall collapsed?
  • 25. Improvement of sea walls’ resiliency
  • 26. To establish the design method for Integrated Disaster Risk Management • Change scope of design: not only a facility but also non-structural measures, i.e., integrated countermeasures • Evaluate the functionality of the integrated countermeasures at all the possible consequences. • Recognize and prepare for the worst consequences
  • 27. Renovation Plan of Sendai City(仙台市) Protection against maximum Tsunami Protection against Park(mold) Tsunami once in one hundred and several Highway Highway ten years Multiple protection lines: Sea walls, river dykes, raising elevation of highways Land use Land use regulation: regulation: Areas where expected Tsunami depth Restriction of exceeds 2m are designated as “Sakigai construction of Kiken Kuiki” (Disaster Prone Zones). In houses. the area, construction of buildings for the purpose for living is prohibited. Evacuation Shelters and Routes: Mounded parks closer to sea shore, high-rise building as a shelter
  • 28. Challenges • Establish the methodology to evaluate integrated countermeasures: – Decision making under ambiguity New method? – Maximizing Net Benefit subject to social safety requirement (Live-safety) Conditional optimization? – Benefit should cover reduction of business interruption losses (economic impacts) need for an integrated framework of economic impact assessment! • Establishing Better Risk Governance – Who takes responsibility for the safety against natural hazards? – Can we achieve it by enhancing public private partnership?
  • 29. Thank you for your attention! • E-mail: tatano@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp