Feng KONG1,3, Peijun SHI1,2,3, Shao SUN1,3, Man LI1,3 1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China

1. Good morning everybody. My name is Kong Feng, from Beijing Normal University. It
is my honor to make a report in this meeting place today. The subject of my report is
Preliminary Study of the Relationship between New Risk Factors and Traditional
Risk Factors.

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In the next ten minutes time, I will follow the outline of the following five parts to
make my report.

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自然灾害的巨大危害性严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全和社会的和谐稳定
。
由于社会发展，人类社会对自然世界改造程度的加深，社会经济
和社会财富得到快速积累的同时很多自然环境也遭到严重破坏，随之带来的是
自然灾害的频繁交叉出现。
随着社会城市化进程的加快，人口数量的增加和人口城市集中效
应的加大使得自然灾害的发生给人类社会带来的损失大大增加。
例如中国在 2008 年就发生了 8.0 及汶川大地震和罕见的巨大雪灾
两次自然灾害，给中国造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。
The great dangers of natural disasters brings a serious threat to people's lives and
property security as well as social harmony and stability.
With social development and the transformation degree of the
natural world to deepen by human being, social, economic and social wealth

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1.“ 风险社会”观点的出现（ Beck ， 1992 ），不论从社会学还是灾害风险科学的角度，都对其有赞
同或反对的声音（ Deney ， 2005 ），但是它使人们对风险防范的认识有了新的理解。
2. 在一个全球各国相互联系愈来愈密切的时代，防范风险、特别是防范巨灾风险已成为当今社会管
理的一项重大任务。
3. 近年来，超出目前社会 - 生态系统应对能力的巨灾持续不断地增加。
2005 年美国特大的卡特里娜飓风， 2008 年中国罕见的低温雨雪冰冻灾害、汶川大地震
， 2011 年日本大地震等，对于现存的防灾规划、灾害应对、灾害管理以及灾后恢复重建都构成了巨大的
挑战。
4. 中国所面临的风险，也从某种程度上成为影响世界的风险
中国自从 1978 年实施改革开放政策，至今 30 多年的实践使中国自身的国力有了明显的
提高，使其与世界各国和地区的联系也发生了明显的变化，已成为影响世界可持续发展的一个重要因素。
因此，中国所面临的风险，也从某种程度上成为影响世界的风险。
中国的风险类型在增加、风险水平在趋高，风险对全球的影响在扩大。中国加速的发展
既是控制自然灾害风险的重要保障，又是引致新风险因素的主要原因。中国必须协调发展与防范风险的关
系，必须全面提高防范资源、环境、生态与人口风险的能力，在完善“巨灾风险防范举国模式”的同时，建
立“全面风险防范举民模式”。
4. 认识中国快速发展与风险防范间的时空动态关系，都将有助于我们理解一个经济快速增长，或经
济水平相对落后的国家或地区，应该如何降低已有的风险水平？如何诱发新的风险类型或对已有
风险的放大过程
无论全世界目前或将来处在何种可持续发展状态，或处在何种风险社会的水平，认识中
国快速发展与风险防范间的时空动态关系，都将有助于我们理解一个经济快速增长，或经济水平相对落后
的国家或地区，应该如何降低已有的风险水平？如何诱发新的风险类型或对已有风险的放大过程？如何应
对包括全球气候变化、资源短缺、环境与生态压力加剧、人口老龄化及金融危机等所带来的新的风险挑战
，如何设计与风险共存的可持续发展模式？
The arising of the viewpoint “risk society” caused different voices for or
against it form the perspectives of sociology or disaster risk science, but
no matter how, it has pushed people to re-understand and re-study risk
governance.
In an era with closer global ties, risk governance, especially catastrophe
governance has become a significant task for today’s social government.
In recent years, catastrophes which are beyond the coping capabilities of current social-ecological system are
increasing constantly.
Such as extraordinarily serious Hurricane Katrina happened in USA in 2005, rare low-temperature freezing rain

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传统风险因子包括自然灾害、公共卫生、生产事故、社会治安四类。
中国政府将这四类风险问题称之为公共安全问题。每一类风险因子包含众多的
风险元素。以其中研究最为广泛的自然灾害为例，包括地震灾害 、地质灾害 、
暴雨洪涝灾害 、旱灾 、台风灾害 、低温冰冻雨雪灾害 、霜冻 、冰雹 、沙尘暴
、风暴潮和赤潮 、农林病虫害 、森林和草原火灾 、水土流失与风蚀沙化 13 种
。
Traditional risk factors fall into four categories: natural disasters, public health,
accidents during production and social security. The four types of risks are called as
public safety issues by the government of China . Each category of the four risk
factors includes a large number of risk elements.
Take natural disasters for example, which includes 13 disasters

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According to population, resources, ecological environment, environmental health,
economic and social development of the five dimensions, new risk factors can be
divided into the following five categories: Population Risk Factors 、 Shortage of
Resources Risk Factors 、 Environmental Risk Factors 、 Environmental Health Risk
Factors 、 Economic and Social Development Risk Factors. The five categories of risk

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According to population, resources, ecological environment, environmental health,
economic and social development of the five dimensions, new risk factors can be
divided into the following five categories: Population Risk Factors 、 Shortage of
Resources Risk Factors 、 Environmental Risk Factors 、 Environmental Health Risk
Factors 、 Economic and Social Development Risk Factors. The five categories of risk

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In population risk factor level: If the natural population growth is too high, it will
continue to lead to the contradiction between population and resources,
environment and development; If the natural population growth rate decline, as well
as the population living longer, it will give rise to the problem of aging population
and labor resources shortage.
In shortage of resources risk factor level: People's access to natural resources can
not be excessive. When the speed of human access to natural resources exceeds the
regeneration rate of natural resources, there will be a shortage of natural resources,
especially to non-renewable resources. The shortage of resources can not meet the
needs of the national economy. The contradiction between population growth and
economic development will become increasingly prominent.
In eco-environmental risk level: First, the deterioration of ecological environment
will exacerbate the risk of reversal of a healthy ecosystem.Second, the deterioration
of the ecological environment will exacerbate the risk of sustained and stable
development of economic society. Third, the deterioration of the ecological
environment will exacerbate the risk of the safety of humans and other organisms.
Fourth, the deterioration of the ecological environment will exacerbate the risk of
political crisis.
In environmental health risk level: Excessive emissions of toxic and hazardous

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In population density level: In 1935 Mr. Hu Huanyong start drawing out the Chinese
population density , and put forward the Hu Huanyong line.The fractionation pattern
of this kind of thing does not change today.

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This slide shows five different times of population density inthe past nearly six
decades, we can see that China's population density remains unchanged. The
eastern part of the population density continues to be increased dramatically, much
faster than the western region. This is mainly because the eastern part is China's
economically developed areas. Therefore, in this part, population is highly
concentrated, wealth is highly concentration. High population density and the high
economic density to a certain extent overlap, make all kinds of risk factors greatly

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In population urbanization rate level: The population urbanization rate is greatly
increasing after the reform and opening up to the other world from 1978.

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This slide shows three different times of population urbanization inthe past nearly
two decades. But due to inconsistent data sources and statistical coverage, cause
the maps can not reflect the real situation.

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In the night lights index level:The night light index greatly increased,
the eastern part of growth is higher than the western region.
In the urban agglomeration growth levels:the urban agglomeration

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In the night lights index level: This left map shows three different times of urban
night lighting index, the different colors represent different years. The night light
index increased the most obvious one is 2001-2009, the eastern part of growth is
higher than the western region.
In the urban agglomeration growth levels: It can be seen from Figure 16, The
growth of the city clusters in China are mainly concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-
Tangshan region, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta region, and some capital
cities region. These areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern areas of China,
mainly distributed in the east of the Hu Huanyong line. China's population and