5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
T.GRAHN Davos 2014
1. Insured Flood Damages: Lake
floods and pluvial flooding
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Tonje Grahn, Karlstad University,
Centre for Climate & Safety, Sweden
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2. Damages reported to Länsförsäkringar insurance
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Monthly distribution of reported damages 1987-
2013
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
company 1987-2013
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Reported damages 1987-2013
3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Analysis- Pluvial flooding
• 17 rainy days in 4 Swedish citys was
included in a regression analysis
• 1400 observations
• Daily precipitation varies between 10
mm and 110 mm
• A positive significant relationship
between the size of damage cost and
amount of daily precipitation was
established
• Even small and moderate amounts
can cause severe damage
4. 80 mm rainfall in the same city on two seperate dates. Rainfall in the left
picture resulted in 15 refundable claims, rainfall in the right picture resulted
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
in 900 refundable claims
5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Municipality of Arvika
6. Municipality of Arvika: Red dots: Pluvial flood damage. Blue dots: Lake flood
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
damage
7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Analysis- Lake flood
• Lake Vänern (5650 km2) &
Lake Glafsfjorden (94 km2)
• Total of 200 observations, micro
level
• 50 % of damaged property
situated in a fringe area not
reached by surface water
• Slow build up
• Long duration (several months)
• Private damage reducing actions
lower the probability structural
building damage
Lake Vänern
Yellow dots: damges property in a
fringe area.
Blue dots: reached by surface water
8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Summary
• Number of damages reported to Swedish insurance companies has increased
during the past 25 years
• The overall cost of insured flood damages in Sweden has increased during the
past 25 years
• The slow rise of lake water levels enable private damage reducing measures to
be taken
• Even simple private actions lowers the risk of extensive building damage
• Despite a few large lake flood incidents, the main part of Swedish flood
damages occur during the Swedish summer when intense rainfall is common
• There is a significant positive relationship between daily precipitation and
insurance payments
• Damages do occur at small and moderate amounts of precipitation
9. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– Contributing to the process of identifying and assessing risk by
collecting data and performing statistical analysis of loss information
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and
further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Collection of data and quantitative analysis of data at the micro level,
more interdisciplinary science and transdisiplinary collaboration in
order to create understanding between sciences and generate
methods and results applicable to real life situations