1. The State and Future of U.S. Solar
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media
U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference
December 2013

2. 2013: 20 States Over 20 MW
2013 Forecasted U.S. PV Installations by State and Market Segment, Top 20 States
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

3. Who Sells Solar?
Car Dealers
Home Improvement
Home Automation
Environmental Groups
Electricity Retailers
Solar Salespeople
Source: GTM Research

4. An Installation Every Four Minutes
700
600 578
Minutes Per Installation
500
400
300
200
2013: One
Installation Every
279
194
125
100
108
78.7
51.8
35.1
18.5
12.2
9.4
5.9
4.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
U.S. PV Installation Frequency, 2001-2013
Source: GTM Research

5. Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity

6. U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
>5x Growth in Three Years
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

7. Varied Growth by Segment
23x Growth
2.3x Growth
2.3x Growth
Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

8. We’re Number Two!
New Capacity Additions, Q1-Q3 2012 and 2013. FERC figures used for all technologies other than
solar, GTM/SEIA figures used for solar
Source: FERC, GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

9. U.S.A.! U.S.A! U.S.A.!
Cumulative New PV Installations in 2013, U.S. vs. Germany
Source: GTM Research

10. Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives

11. We are the 82%
2013 U.S. PV Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2013
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

12. California: No Rebate? No Problem
California Residential PV Installations by Source, IOU Territory
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

13. Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
taken seriously by the electricity industry

14. The Utility Transformation Report Bandwagon

15. 2013 Net Metering Battlegrounds
VT
ID
VA
CO
MO
CA
AZ
TX
LA
GA
Source: GTM Research

16. Utility Investment in Solar
Utility Affiliate
Purchases
VC Investments
Competitive Retailer
Channel Partnerships
Project Investment
Source: GTM Research

17. Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
taken seriously by the electricity industry
bankable

18. Project Finance Milestones Abound
Project Finance in Residential
Solar
Stock Performance: NRG Yield
Source: GTM Research, Google Finance

19. Setting the Precedent: SolarCity’s First Securitized Portfolio
Source: GTM Research, Google Finance

20. Our Checklist
In order to be mainstream, solar must be…
a primary source of new electric capacity
cost-competitive without reliance on fickle incentives
taken seriously by the electricity industry
bankable

21. So Where Do We Go From Here?
Forecasted Cumulative U.S. PV Installations, 2008-2027
Source: GTM Research

22. Thank You!
Shayle Kann
Vice President, Research
Greentech Media
kann@gtmresearch.com