Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers

Extreme phenomena – Floods International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres

International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management

Extreme phenomena – Floods
in transboundary rivers

Dr. Enrique Cifres
Advisor

MENBO
Mediterranean Networl of Basin Organizations


The annual cost to the world economy, of
flooding and other water-related disasters, is
between US$ 50 and US$ 60 billion

The 2002 floods in Europe claimed 100 lives and
caused US$ 20 billion in damage.


In Asia, between 1987 and 1997, floods claimed an
..but average of 22,800 lives per annum and caused an
estimated US$ 136 billion in economic damage

-Floods accounted for half of the total disasters,
-water-borne and vector disease outbreaks accounted
for 28% and
-drought accounted for 11% of the total disasters.

It is estimated that one billion
people, one sixth of the global
population -the majority of them
among the world's poorest
inhabitants -live on flood plains
today


Transboudnary river basins

Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers


Main flooding areas
SEE Countries
Danube basin
Adraitic and Aegean basins



Main flooding areas



>400.000 direct casualties
XX Century
Indirect: related diseases, plagues,
direct deaths
1931 – 145,000
economic losses, poverty..
1935 – 142,000
1954 – 30,000
Yangtse River

-206 a.c. Today
Han Dinasty

Every 10 years
216 floods


Due to heavy storms or
prolongated seasonal rains


Lake
Sarez
Tadzhikistan

.. but also caused by
GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS


Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared

By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
10


How to fight against floods?
MODIFYING NATURE

Flood control dams as more
friendly alternatives

Even some dams supported
by green NGO’s


<80-90’s

Structural measures


Past mistakes- lessons for the future


Lesson learnt: Multipurpose projects. Sustainable
operation


EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION
(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE
FUNCTION)

F 1

NATURAL REGIME

RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS

0
Q


EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION IMPOSED
(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE
FUNCTION)

F 1

NATURAL REGIME

RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
CATASTROPHIC FLOODS
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS
REMAIN PROBABLE

BE AWARE OF INDUCED FALSE SAFETY
0
Q


<80-90’s 90’s

Structural measures Non structural measures
Just management


Will we be able to face requiered flood
mitigation challenges without phisical actions?


<80-90’s 90’s Late 90’s and XXIst cent

Structural measures Non structural measures Both plus proactive strategies
Just management


•Induced false safety
•Growth of vulnerability
The increasing pressure of urban and industrial
development on metropolitan areas means a growth
in the value of settled capital.
Investments on protection measures, structural or not,
has to be based on a concept of sustainability, so that
the creation of infrastructures do not generate an
Bco. la Saleta. 26/10/00
acceleration of the vulnerability of the territory.
WOULD BE IT IS POSSIBLE?

Non structural measures::
Incentives to leave flood plains,
Land use management
Appropriate warning systems,
Emergency plans
Insurance policies, etc


GOVERNANCE?

Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared

By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
21


BORDER (no for water)


Impacts of Climate Change on floods

Precipitation amount,
Air temperature
timing and type

Runoff timing and Sea level rise
quantity


Are we able to assess really high return period floods?
Extrapolation con present statistics
Raingauge = RAFELCOFER.
SQRT GUMBEL GEV TCEV

T=500

T=100
T=50
Uncertainty!!
T=10

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL


Effects of climate change
Sensitivity analysis. Just modifying the temperature of sea water
it’s possible to estimate a new distribution function of probabilities
and new expected risks.

1 00 000
10.000

Precipitation Peak flow of
10 000
of the storm the flood

Periodo de retorno (años)
1.000
Pe rio d o d e reto rn o

1 000

100
100

Dp Referencia
10
10 Dp +3ºC
Dp Ref e renc ia
Dp +3 º C
1 Probability of catastrophic 1
0 20 0 4 00 600 8 00 100 0
floods would be 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
P r e c ip itac ió n m e dia Caudal punta (m 3/seg)
considerabily increased

Climate change


Conclusions… may be just comments

 Risk 0 never will be reached by
humankind
 Negotiate with nature. Don’t forget
the fable of “Tang and the Tree”
 River cannot be divided by
reaches. Floods cross borders
without visa
 Regarding climate change,
remember “precaution principle”

Valencia, 1957


Thank you for your attention

Dr. Enrique Cifres
Advisor
Mediterranean Network of Basin Organizartions

Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers

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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers