Overview of one of the key macro drivers of change, 'Debt'.

1. Change management and business
performance improvement
Extract: Module 1 Section 1
Ged Melia

2. Module 1 Change management and transformation
• The ‘big picture’ - a macroeconomic view
• Where is all this change stuff coming from?
• Why do we need to change when everything seems to be working OK?
• John Kotter’s eight step change management framework.
• Challenges at the organisational level:
• Generating growth.
• Aligning costs with expected revenues.
• Should we hire consultants or do just get on it with ourselves?
• ‘Resistance to change’
• Selected ‘best practice’ approaches:
• Project management, service management, bid management and cost evaluation.
Module 2 Business performance improvement
• Continuous improvement
• Improving processes.
• The management control cycle.
• Shared service centres.
• Sourcing decisions.
• IT projects.
• Downsizing and restructuring.
• Improving growth through combinations and via revenues.
Seminar is in two parts

3. Module 1 - Change management and transformations
Section 1: Drivers of change
Section 2: A framework for change and transformation
Section 3: Implications of Kotter’s studies
Section 4: Designing and managing change projects
Section 5: Should I hire a consultant?
Section 6: Resistance to change

4. Section 1: Drivers of change

5. Macro economic and social factors
Change
drivers
Debt
Robotics &
holographics
Globalisation
Population
growth
Resource
scarcity
Internet &
Digital
Climate
Peak Oil
Change has always been with us and
always will be.
It’s the pace of change that is different.
And there are more factors in play, all
acting in concert.
Everything is getting more complicated
and complex.
It looks grim but there are solutions
We just have to find them….
Bur let’s start by taking a look at what
there is, the ‘big picture’ stuff that is
already changing our lives, albeit often out
of sight.
Here are a few.

6. Debt

7. What a trillion looks like

8. The debt trap – developments since 2008
Debt
Public
Corporate
Personal
‘Financial
repression’ has
encouraged share
buy-backs
QE and PSBR
funded by deficit
spending
Student loans are
going exponential
New drivers since 2008 Public debt
UK
US

9. Debt
Public
Corporate
Personal
‘Financial
repression’ has
encouraged equity
buy-backs
QE and PSBR
funded by deficit
spending
Student loans are
going exponential
New drivers since 2008
U.S. markets have been
supported by up to $1
trillion/yr. in share buy-backs
in recent years. ZIRP/low
interest rate borrowing used
for equity purchases rather
than investment.
The debt trap – developments since 2008
US
UK
Statistics not found
(BoE comment on
share buybacks)

10. The debt trap – developments since 2008
Debt
Public
Corporate
Personal
‘Financial
repression’ has
encouraged equity
buy-backs
QE and PSBR
funded by deficit
spending
Student loans are
going exponential
New drivers since 2008
US
UK
Student debt is now so high
compared to average salaries
that many graduates in
respectable public sector
professions will be unable to
repay their fees even by the
end of the 30-year repayment
period, the Higher Education
Commission warns. According
to the Institute for Fiscal
Studies, the average student
debt will be £44,015 - higher
even than the US.

11. The debt trap – developments since 2008
the Institute of International
Finance (IIF), a group that
represents the financial
services industry. As of June
2014 it estimated that global
debt, excluding the financial
sector, was equivalent to
245% of total global economic
activity or GDP. That's up from
214% in September 2008
when the financial crisis was
going into its most intense
phase.

12. The debt trap – how it might play out
Consequences
• Plan for the long term. The long term interest
rate cycle is already over-extended and rates
will increase at some point in the future. This
should be factored in to any long tern debt
based funding.
• Don’t over-leverage the balance sheet.
• Maintain a lean operating cost base; ensure
that bottom line profitability can withstand an
interest rate shock.
• Build a acquisition reserve – there will be
opportunities.
• Vocational training, modern apprenticeships,
corporate student sponsorships.
Actions to consider
Debt levels are still manageable in the public and
corporate sectors, and at a personal level.
Economic recovery is usually a catalyst for
interest rates to start reverting to long term trend
lines.
As interest rates increase government gilts and
bonds coupon rates increase and taxes start to
rise. Businesses pay increased taxes and
interest payments. Individuals have less to
spend on discretionary expenditure.
There is a moderate to high risk that current
debt levels will drive taxes and interest
payments that risk another major recession or
even a depression.
There is a possibility that central banks will
suppress rates indefinitely which could further
distort both funding markets and economic
activity.
2011
UK
US
Japan