THE 2012 GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY REPORT® The Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector policy voice for agricultural productivity growth throughout the value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI releases an annual Global Agricultural Productivity Report® (GAP Report®) to serve as a benchmark to analyze agricultural productivity growth. The 2012 GAP Report® focuses on the most recent global agricultural productivity growth rate and compares it to the rate required to meet estimated demand growth. The report also analyzes global and regional productivity, as each region faces unique opportunities and challenges. In 2010, GHI’s inaugural GAP Report® calculated that global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) must grow by an average rate of at least 1.75 percent annually to double agricultural output by 2050. Recent findings indicate that global TFP is rising at an average annual rate of 1.84 percent. But regional differences exist, and achieving necessary food production by 2050 requires improving the productivity of farmers in every major region, and across all scales of agriculture, from the smallholder to the commercial exporter. Meeting future demand requires improving practices in growing and handling crops and livestock, and improving transportation, processing, and food production through infrastructure and capital investment.

2. Total Factor Productivity

3. Why We Are Here
• We believe the right policies can
improve global food and nutrition
security
• Increasing total factor productivity
(TFP) is the sustainable way to
meet the demands of 2050
• The annual GAP Report® presents
required rate of TFP to meet
demand vs. actual rate and policies
that foster productivity growth

4. Recent Developments in Global
Agricultural Productivity
Dr. Keith Fuglie
Economic Research Service, USDA
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

5. Future agricultural growth will rely more on
raising yield rather than expanding resources
Output growth
Yield
growth
Area
growth
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

6. Yield growth itself may come from input
intensification or from technological change
(total factor productivity)
Total Factor
Productivity
(TFP)
growth
Output growth
Yield
growth
Input
intensification
Area Area
growth growth
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

7. Yield growth itself may come from input
intensification or from technological change
(total factor productivity)
Research & extension
Total Factor Rural education
Productivity Resource quality
(TFP) Infrastructure
growth Institutions
Output growth
Yield
growth
Input Resource endowments
intensification Prices & costs
Ag policies
Infrastructure
Exchange rates
Area Area Institutions
growth growth
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

8. Globally, improvement in total factor
productivity accounts for a rising share of
agriculture growth
Source: ERS The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

9. Though robust overall, agricultural TFP
growth is highly uneven among countries
Average annual
TFP growth
> 3%
1-3%
< 1%
Average annual TFP growth between the mid 1990s and 2008/09
Source: ERS The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

10. Sustaining TFP growth into the future will
require robust investment in research and
innovation
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy of ERS or USDA

11. 2012 GAP Report® Conclusions
Laura Barringer
Senior Associate
Global Harvest Initiative

12. A closer look at demand growth and regional
strategies to meet demand
Projected Increase in Food Demand
• Demand growth and 2000 – 2030
resource distribution are
not equal
• Opportunities everywhere
to increase productivity
strategies may be different
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009)
and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)

13. East Asia – If TFP Growth is maintained a gap will
exist
Est. Food Demand and
Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity Growth
Estimated Food 3.6 %
Demand / year
TFP Growth / year 3.1%
• Increase in food demand is
primarily driven by the
growing middle class
• Trade is vital for increasing
the availability of food for
urban populations
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer
(2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)

14. South and Southeast Asia - If TFP Growth is
maintained a gap will exist
Est. Food Demand and
Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity Growth
Estimated Food 2.8 %
Demand / year
TFP Growth / year 2.5 %
• Asia accounts for 70%
world’s land under irrigation
– likely to become more
water stressed
• More trade will be
necessary to meet future
demands
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer
(2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)

15. Middle East and North Africa - If TFP Growth is maintained
a gap will exist
Est. Food Demand and
Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity Growth
Estimated Food 2.1 %
Demand / year
TFP Growth / year 1.9 %
• Increasing water scarcity makes
technologies to improve
water‐use efficiency important
• Nearly half of food in region is
imported ‐ a combination of
productivity, imports and safety
net programs will be required
to fill this gap Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer
(2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)

16. Sub‐Saharan Africa needs to dramatically improve
productivity to sustainably meet demand
Est. Food Demand and
Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity Growth
Estimated Food 2.8 %
Demand / year
TFP Growth / year 0.5 %
• Increase in food demand
primarily driven by population
growth
• Investment in research and
adoption of suitable
technologies would make a
significant impact on
productivity and food security Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer
(2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)

17. Latin America and Caribbean region has potential to
be a larger net exporter
Est. Food Demand and
Between 2000 - 2030 Productivity Growth
Estimated Food 1.8 %
Demand / year
TFP Growth / year 2.7 %
• Policies that continue to
encourage productivity and
invest in infrastructure can
create an environment
conducive for growth
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie
(2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and
Thompson (2008)

18. Effective Policies Can Enable Growth

19. Investments will determine environment and to what
extent technologies will be available
• Increased public and private
sector funding is necessary
Public
Sector
• Development assistance can
mobilize private sector
Private
Sector
• Significant on farm capital
investment is required Farmer

20. AG R&D spending and extension is the most
important predictor of TFP growth
• More investment in
public R&D is
needed to
sustain productivity
growth
• Investments lead to
higher profits for
farmers and lower
prices for
consumers

21. Science‐ and information‐based technologies are necessary
to improve productivity
No-till adoption is increasing
• Numerous tools available
that not only improve
productivity, but also reduce
environmental footprint
• Need a rules-based and
predictable regulatory
system

22. Trade liberalization can be a major contributor to
economic growth
• Agriculture trade is expected to grow to $1 trillion by 2020
• Further trade liberalization can expand market access, improve
efficiency and increase investment

23. Key strategies for meeting the demand
• Productivity needs to continue to increase in every major part
of the world
• Close the investment gap to provide sufficient infrastructure
• Increase R&D spending to generate
needed science- and information-
based technologies
• Remove barriers to global and
regional trade

24. Panel Discussion
Dr. Christopher Delgado
Strategy and Policy Adviser
World Bank
Mr. Rajesh Kumar
Farmer
Salem, India
Dr. Keith Fuglie
Branch Chief for Resource, Environmental and Science Policy,
Resource and Rural Economic Division
Economic Research Service, USDA