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Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the Iowa caucuses.

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Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

  1. F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6 Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
  2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
  3. PAGE 3 M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA D E M O CRAT S Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination? Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa) 27% 30% 11% 8% 4% 10% 0% 0% 2% 4% 1% 34% 10% 3% 1% 10% 14% 8% 6% 2% 4% 3% Economy and jobs Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes 27% 15% 11% 9% 5% 8% 0% 0% 5% 8% 2% 36% 4% 2% 3% 22% 6% 11% 3% 2% 3% 2% Economy and jobs Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes Republicans Democrats NationalIowa
  4. PAGE 4 AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016 Democrats Republicans Shares values 19% 20% Cares about needs/problems 28% 13% Strong leadership 16% 29% Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21% Rightexperience 16% 8% Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7% Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 NATIONALLY IOWA Democrats Republicans Shares values 16% 26% Cares about needs/problems 26% 9% Strong leadership 13% 26% Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24% Rightexperience 18% 6% Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%
  5. PAGE 5 L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for? Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. 52% 40% 30% 57% Leadership Issues Republicans Democrats Note: “Something else,” and “Not sure” results not shown
  6. PAGE  6 N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13,2016 Thinking about the2016 presidential elections,which of the following statementscomes closers to your point of view? 36% 61% 3% Depends / Not sure Statement A: This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he or she brings fewer changes to the current policies. Statement B: This is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the current policies even if he or she is less experienced and tested. Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not? 53% 44% 29% 68% Yes No Republicans Democrats NATIONALLY IOWA
  7. I O W A C A U C U S
  8. PAGE 8 H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR Only registered Democrats are eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration. 1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000locations. They start at 8 p.m. EST and can last an hour or more. Thereare 44 delegates to the national conventionthatcan be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”). Here's what happens on caucus night: 1. Supporters make the case for their candidates. 2. Caucus goers separate intogroups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of choice. 3. When the groups are formed, theelected chair adds up how many supporters are in each cluster. Each candidatehas to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent. 4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable,that candidate's supporters have to choose another candidate. 5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the nonviable candidate's voters to their side. 6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the numbers are tallied.
  9. PAGE 9 H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR Only registered Republicansare eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration. GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations.They also start at 8 p.m. EST and last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stakeof the1,236 needed to be the GOP nominee. Here's what happens on caucus night: 1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case. 2. Caucus goers pick a candidate throughpaper ballot. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could havebeendonethrough a show of hands.Unlike Democrats, the Republicans have no15 percent threshold. 3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.
  10. R E P U B L I C A N S
  11. PAGE 11 T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E J U M P B Y R U B I O Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 14% 26% 28% 24% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 11% 12% 12% 17% 8% 15% 20% 23% 23% 23% 26% 28% 31% 9% 11% 13% 18% 22% 22% 13% 8% 8% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson Candidate Average Donald Trump 30.7% Ted Cruz 23.8% Marco Rubio 17.4% Ben Carson 7.7% Jeb Bush 3.9% Rand Paul 3.9% Mike Huckabee 3.1% John Kasich 2.6% Chris Christie 2.3% Carly Fiorina 2.1% Rick Santorum 1.2% Jim Gilmore 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of February 1, 2016
  12. PAGE 12 P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster 1% 4% 29% 66% Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Donald Trump PredictWiseChance ofWinningIowa Caucuses As ofFebruary 1st 46% 38% 14% 1% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson FiveThirtyEight.comChance ofWinningIowaCaucuses As ofFebruary 1st
  13. Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13 I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP & C R U Z O V E R R U B I O 76% 58% 40% 18% 31% 43% 5% 11% 15% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
  14. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14 M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P 72% 81% 74% 63% 28% 18% 26% 37% Total Trump supporter Cruz supporter Rubio supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 7% 9% 10% 12% 13% 15% 21% 35% Carson Rubio Paul Christie Kasich Cruz Bush Trump Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?
  15. Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15 M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N TA CTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN Yes 45%No 55% Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate? 9% 12% 5% 25% 8% 4% 7% 4% 9% 17% 5% 13% IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
  16. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst- time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent. Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in 2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent. 2. Fickle Voters According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by election day. 3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney. No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.
  17. D E M O C R A T S
  18. PAGE 18 C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N I O WA Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 47.7% Bernie Sanders 44.6% Martin O’Malley 3.7% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of February 1st , 2016 Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 18% 21% 27% 29% 32% 34% 37% 42% 45% 56% 54% 50% 48% 48% 51% 51% 48% 48% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered/leaned Democrats Sanders Clinton
  19. PAGE 19 P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS 27% 73% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses As of February 1st 34% 66% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses As of February 1st Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
  20. PAGE 20 M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ; I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S 85% 84% 87% 14% 15% 12% Total Clinton supporter Sanders supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 79% 76% 15% 15% 4% 7% Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day? Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016
  21. Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21 M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON Yes 62% No 37% Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate? 49% 15% 38% Clinton O'Malley Sanders IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
  22. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters. People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton. 2. Fickle Voters A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice could be convinced to changecandidates. 3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.
  23. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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