2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of Romney…………………………………………………………….…...8
3. 2012: General Election Preview………………..…………………………15
4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…20
5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……27
6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...34
2
4. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE
WRONG TRACK TRENDING UP
A Look Back
August 2008 Source: ABC/WP Poll %
As of August 23, 2012
Wrong Track 78
Right Direction 19
WRONG TRACK 61.8% August 2004 Source: CBS News Poll %
Wrong Track 55
Right Direction 39
August 2000 Source: LA Times Poll %
Wrong Track 36
Right Direction 56
August 1996 Source: LA Times Poll %
Wrong Track 59
Right Direction 31
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.3% August 1992 Source: LA Times Poll %
Wrong Track 68
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Right Direction 23
4
5. ECONOMIC CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DRIVE
ELECTORAL AGENDA: Mentions of The Economy Steady
45%
39%
40% 36%
35% 31% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 31% Economy
29%
30% 26%
31% 30% 30% 25%
25% 29% 28% 22% 28% 23%
26% Unemployment
25% 26% 25%
20% 17% 16% 16%
14% 15% 14% 15%
13% 13% 13% 13% Dissatisfaction
15% 12% 12% with gov’t
10% 14%
12% 12% 11% 11% Deficit
5% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9%
6% 7% 7%
0%
Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
Unemployment Economy Dissatisfaction with gov't Federal Budget Deficit
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
5
Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
6. MOST VOTERS DO NOT SEE ECONOMY
RECOVERING OR GROWING
Which of the following would you say most closely describes your view of the
national economy? Would you say the national economy is…
Strong and growing 5%
In a recovery 28%
Not moving 24%
Approaching recession 13%
In a recession 28%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Note: “Not sure” results are not shown. 6
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, August 5-9, 2012
7. AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN
OBAMA FOR ECONOMY
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic
problems – (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)?
60% 54% 54%
49% Bush
40%
Obama
34% 32%
29%
20%
0%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and 7
“No opinion” results are not shown.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
9. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS
LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
FAVORABLE 49.5% FAVORABLE 43.4%
UNFAVORABLE 44.9% UNFAVORABLE 46.5%
As of August 24, 2012
9
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
10. BOTH CANDIDATES AMONG LOWEST RATED
IN MODERN ELECTIONS
Oct 1988 Oct 1992 Oct 1996 Oct 2000 Oct 2004 Oct 2008 July 2012
68
54 57 56 56 Democratic
48 46 50 45 candidates
39 41 38 40
28 Favorable
Unfavorable
Dukakis Clinton Clinton Gore Kerry Obama Obama
58 54 54 56 54
51 52 Republican
43 43 40 42 42 candidates
37 37
Favorable
Unfavorable
GHWB GHWB Dole GWB GWB McCain Romney
10
Source: Pew Research Center. Oct 1992 and Oct 2000 data from Gallup
11. MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL ROMNEY IS OUT OF
STEP WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING
When it comes to his approaches to issues, would you say that Mitt Romney is in the
mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or is out of step with most Americans’
thinking?
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
51%
44%
COMPARE TO:
In the Out of
July-08
Mainstream Step
John
45% 42%
McCain
In the Mainstream Out of Step
11
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
12. A THIRD OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY IS TOO
CONSERVATIVE
Do you think Mitt Romney’s positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative
or about right?
AMONG REGISTERED
VOTERS
ABOUT RIGHT
TOO 40%
CONSERVATIVE
34%
DON’T
TOO KNOW
LIBERAL 13%
14%
12
Source: Fox News Poll, August 5-7, 2012
13. MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL ROMNEY CARES ABOUT
THEIR NEEDS, SHARES THEIR VALUES, BUT SAYS WHAT
PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
How much do you think [Mitt Romney/Barack Obama] cares about the Romney Obama
needs and problems of people like yourself?
A lot 25% 38%
Some 30% 25%
Not much 20% 18%
Not at all 21% 18%
Do you think [Mitt Romney/Barack Obama] shares the values most Romney Obama
Americans try to live by, or doesn’t he?
Does 58% 57%
Does not 34% 38%
Do you think [Mitt Romney/Barack Obama] says what he believes most of Romney Obama
the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
What he believes 37% 45%
What people want to hear 56% 51%
13
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012 Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown.
14. MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY WOULD CLOSELY
FOLLOW ECONOMIC POLICIES OF GEORGE W. BUSH;
FAVOR THE RICH
If elected, how closely do you think Mitt Romney would follow the economic policies of George W. Bush?
60%
65% 25%
40% Closely Not Closely
20% 46%
19% 18% 7%
0%
Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely
If Mitt Romney is elected Favor the rich 53%
president, do you think the
policies of his administration Favor the middle class 11%
will favor the rich, favor the
Favor the poor 2%
middle class, favor the
poor, or will they treat all Treat all equally 30%
groups equally?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
14
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012 Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown.
16. PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS
Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second
Presidency: term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent,
seeking to become the 45th president of the United States.
Republicans Democrats
33 seats being contested.
Senate: Republicans need to win 4 seats 47 53*
from the Democrats to gain
- +6
control of the Senate.
Republicans Democrats
All 435 seats being contested.
House: Democrats need to win 25 seats
to gain control of in the House.
240** 190***
+50 -
Governor: 11 governorships being
contested.
* 51 Democrats + 2 Independents
** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4)
*** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18)
16
17. The Washington Post - Kaiser Family Foundation Poll
REPUBLICANS
Tea Party Movement: Old-School Republicans: Religious Values Voters: Window Shoppers: 17% Pro-Government: 12%
28% 22% 21%
Young Republicans with Working-class
Most conservative of the More More female, focused on more progressive views Republicans who are
GOP groups, with most male, white, educated religious heritage and on many social and fiscal highly religious and very
identifying as tea party and wealthy, with conservative on social issues. They are more conservative on social
supporters. Almost all in moderate views on social and fiscal issues. They female, less white and issues. But they are
this group are married and issues but conservative take a more moderate less religious than other more open to the idea of
white. They have a views on fiscal issues. view on issues of equality. groups. A majority prefer a larger government. The
uniform desire for a They are the least religious Although they prioritize a larger government with smallest Republican
smaller government with of Republican groups. the role of religion in more services, see group, with lower
less regulation of business. They oppose raising taxes public life, they are not as regulation of business as income and less
They think gay marriage on the rich and are fearful religious on a personal necessary and want education, they want to
and abortion should be of increases to the budget level as Tea Party government to improve see an active
illegal. They say the GOP deficit. Movement Republicans. the standard of living. government improve the
leadership is taking the standard of living for
party in the right direction. people.
98% 92% 92%
83%
58%
37%
6% 6% 9%
1%
to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote forPlan to vote for Obama
Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Plan to vote forPlan to vote for Ob
Romney
17
18. The Washington Post - Kaiser Family Foundation Poll
DEMOCRATS
God & Government Dems: 34% Urban Liberals: 29% Agnostic Left: 24% DIY Democrats: 13%
Mostly nonwhite, highly religious Mostly white, wealthier and Younger, socially liberal and Mostly white, have lower
and live in the South. They are secular. They have expansive secular. They believe in income and
more economically distressed and views of the role of economic individualism. education, with a high
see a role for larger government. government, and social Most agree that people proportion in rural areas.
They divide closely on gay issues. They support tax should take responsibility for These “do it yourself”
marriage and abortion, oppose increases of the rich and their own lives and that Democrats are the smallest
cuts to entitlements and support cutting military failure to get ahead is mostly of the groups. They are the
increased spending to create jobs. spending, have favorable the individual’s fault. They only one to prefer smaller
views of health-care reform are similar to Urban Liberals government, are opposed
and favor gun control. on social issues. to gay marriage and are
split on abortion.
96% 94%
91%
71%
21%
5% 3% 3%
Plan to vote for Plan to vote for Obama to vote for Plan to vote for Obama to vote for Plan to vote for Obamato vote for Plan to vote for Obama
Romney Plan Romney Plan Romney Plan Romney
18
19. The Washington Post - Kaiser Family Foundation Poll
INDEPENDENTS
Disguised Democrats: 32% Detached: 24% Deliberators: 13% Disguised Republicans: 31%
This Democratic-leaning group They have low interest in The smallest of the This Republican-leaning
voted for Obama in 2008 and politics and are relatively independent groups, they group voted for John McCain
supports him again this year. Its disengaged from the political are the closest to true swing in 2008 and plans to vote for
members consistently side process. Seven in 10 are not voters. Nearly half say they Mitt Romney this year. Its
with Democrats on issues and registered to vote, and few of do not lean to either members fit the demographic
are more secular and urban. those plan to register before party, and more than six in profile of Republicans –
Despite their Democratic the election. Nearly nine in 10 10 say they have always white, older, more male and
lean, a majority say they have did not vote in 2008. They are thought of themselves as more religious – and align
always considered themselves by far the youngest of any of independents. About half with Republican policy
independent. the independent say they have voted for preferences consistently.
groups, more Hispanic, with Democratic and Republican They are very dissatisfied
less education and lower presidential candidates with the political system.
income. about equally in past
82% elections. 79%
56%
34% 33%
28%
9% 13%
Plan to vote for Plan to vote for Obama to vote for Plan to vote for Obama to vote for Plan to vote for Obama to vote for Plan to vote for Obama
Romney Plan Romney Plan Romney Plan Romney
19
21. AS CONVENTION NEARS, POLLS SHOW THE
RACE IS NARROWING
A Look Back
As of August 22, 2012 Four Years Ago Today
August 27, 2008 %
OBAMA 46.2% Obama 46.5
McCain 44.7
+0.5 Obama +1.8
Eight Years Ago Today
August 27, 2004 %
ROMNEY 45.7%
Bush 46.3
Kerry 44.8
Bush +1.5
Source: Real Clear Politics
21
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
22. ROMNEY SEES NO IMMEDIATE NATIONAL
BOUNCE FROM RYAN V.P. PICK
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
Presidential ticket % Support last poll % Support first
Change
before naming poll after naming
(pct. pts)
running mate running mate
Dole/Kemp (1996) 30 39 +9
Bush/Cheney (2000) 43 46 +3
Gore/Lieberman (2000) 35 40 +5
Kerry/Edwards (2004) 46 50 +4
Obama/Biden (2008) 46 44 -2
McCain/Palin (2008) 41 43 +2
Romney/Ryan (2012) 46 47 +1
22
Source: Gallup Historical data
23. ROUGHLY SAME NUMBER SAY THEY’RE
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY AS LESS
LIKELY AFTER SELECTION OF RYAN AS V.P.
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
More likely to vote for candidate Less likely to vote for candidate Does not affect vote either way
80%
69% 71%
70% 65%
58%
60% 54%
+9
50%
+21 40%
40% 34% +8 -1
+2 +13 28%
30% 25% 24% 22%23%
20%
20% 16%14% 16%
10% 7% 7%
0%
Bush/Cheney Gore/Lieberman Kerry/Edwards McCain/Palin Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan
(7/00) (8/00) (7/04) (9/08) (9/08) (8/12)
23
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
24. AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON THE
ECONOMY & DEFICIT
Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle each of the following issues?
Obama Romney
60%
54% 53% 54%
52% 52% 52%
50%
43% 43% 43%
41% 40%
39%
40%
30% R R O O O O
+15 +9 +9 +9 +12 +14
20%
10%
0%
The federal budget deficit economy
The Health care Taxes Medicare Foreign affairs
Note: “Same,” and “No opinion” results 24
are not shown.
Source: USA Today/Gallup, August 20-22, 2012
25. AMERICANS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON
PERSONAL DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS LIKABILITY
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each
one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney?
Obama Romney
Is likable 54%
31% O, +23
Cares about the needs of people like you 52%
36% O, +16
Is honest and trustworthy 48%
36% O, +12
Would stand up to special interests, including 48%
those aligned with his own party 37% O, +11
Is a strong and decisive leader 47%
42% O, +5
Would work well with both parties to get things 45%
done in Washington 40% O, +5
Can manage the government effectively 45%
44% O, +1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
25
Source: USA Today/Gallup, August 20-22, 2012
26. CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE
POINTS AFTER CONVENTION
Post-Dem. Post-Rep.
Democratic Republican
Convention convention
candidate candidate
bounce bounce
2008 Obama +4 McCain +6
2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush +2
2000 Gore +8 G.W. Bush +8
1996 Clinton +5 Dole +3
1992 Clinton +16 G.H.W. Bush +5
1988 Dukakis +7 G.H.W. Bush +6
1984 Mondale +9 Reagan +4
1980 Carter +10 Reagan +8
1976 Carter +9 Ford +5
1972 McGovern 0 Nixon +7
26
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
28. THE ELECTORAL MAP
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
OR
7 10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
4
55 6 20 11 18
CO
9 5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 NM 5 7 6
10 3
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 221 Toss-Up: 136 Romney: 181 28
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of August 27, 2012)
29. OF THE ELEVEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS
TIED IN ALL BUT TWO, BUT MOST QUITE TIGHT (6/20-8/12)
Obama: 48%
(7/24-8/23) Romney: 45%
(8/13-8/21)
Obama: 48% Obama: 47%
(8/13-8/25)
Romney: 47% Romney: 45%
Obama: 47%
OR (7/31-8/22) Romney: 45%
MN NH
Obama: 48%
WI
Romney: 46% MI
IA
NV OH Obama: 47%
CO
CO Romney: 46%
MO VA (8/13-8/23)
KY
NC
NC
NM Romney: 48%
Obama: 49% Obama: 45% Obama: 44% GA
Romney: 45% Romney: 44% (8/9-8/23) Romney: 48%
(7/16-8/21) (5/22-8/8) Obama: 47%
(7/1-8/5)
FL
Obama: 46%
Romney: 46%
(8/13-8/21) 29
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of August 27, 2012)
30. WISCONSIN: HAS RYAN TURNED THIS STATE
INTO A TOSS-UP? Obama Job Approval
2008 Results Approve Disapprove No opinion
Obama 56.3%
McCain 42.4% 46%
49% Source:
Quinnipiac /
CBS/NYT Poll,
August 15-21,
5% 2012
10
Electoral
Votes
Obama vs. Romney
48% 47%
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
7.3%
July 2012 Obama Romney
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
30
Source: Real Clear Politics Average, August 13-21, 2012
31. FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012?
Obama Job Approval
2008 Results Approve Disapprove No opinion
Obama 50.9%
McCain 48.4% 47%
48% Source:
Quinnipiac /
CBS/NYT
Poll, August
5% 15-21, 2012
29 Obama vs. Romney
Electoral
46% 46%
Votes
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
8.8% Obama Romney
July 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 31
Source: Real Clear Politics Average, August 13-21, 2012
32. OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING?
Obama Job Approval
2008 Results Approve Disapprove No opinion
Obama 51.2%
McCain 47.2% 49%
Source:
48% Quinnipiac /
CBS/NYT
Poll, August
3% 15-21, 2012
18
Electoral Obama vs. Romney
Votes
47% 45%
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
7.2% Obama Romney
July 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 32
Source: Real Clear Politics Average, August 13-25, 2012
33. VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD
Obama Job Approval
2008 Results Approve Disapprove No opinion
Obama 52.7%
McCain 46.4% 50%
Source:
49% Rasmussen
Poll, August
13 23, 2012
1%
Electoral
Votes Obama vs. Romney
47% 46%
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
5.9% Obama Romney
July 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 33
Source: Real Clear Politics Average, August 13 -23, 2012
35. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Republicans need to win 4 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME. This assumes they hold onto MA and NV.
Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (4) Toss-Up (8) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1)
ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MO (McCaskill) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) –
Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat
PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – MT (Tester) – IN (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat Republican
MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – NM (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat
CT (Open) – VA (Open) –
Democrat Democrat
WI (Open) –
Democrat
ND (Open) -
Democrat
MA (Brown) –
Republican
NV (Heller) –
Republican
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 35
he wins the open Maine seat
Source: Roll Call, as of August 27, 2012
36. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(6/13-6/25)
(8/20) (5/3-7/11) King: 53%
(8/15-8/21)
Rehberg : 47% Berg: 49% Summers: 25%
Thompson: 51%
Tester: 43% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 8%
Baldwin: 43%
ND ME
OR MT
MN NH
WI MA
(8/20-8/23)
McCaskill: 47% Brown:
NV 44%
Akin: 41%
CO
MO VA Warren:
KY
43%
NC (5/7-8/19)
Heller: 47% NM
NM
Berkley: 41% GA
Kaine: 46%
(7/16-8/21)
Allen: 46%
Heinrich: 49% (7/31-8/23)
Wilson: 42% FL
(7/9-8/21) Nelson: 47%
Mack: 41
(7/26-8/21) 36
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of August 27, 2012)
37. NO RE-ELECTED PRESIDENT HAS COME CLOSE
TO CARRYING 25 SEATS IN THE HOUSE
President Re-Elected Democrats may in fact need
Year Name U.S. House Net Gain/Loss to win more than 25 seats to
win back control of House if
1972 Nixon GOP +12 Seats GOP can pick up some seats
1984 Reagan GOP +16 Seats
Possible Republican Pick-Ups
1996 Clinton Dems +9 Seats
IN-2 (Open)
2004 Bush (43) GOP +3 Seats
NC-7 (McIntyre)
NC-8 (Kissell)
President Defeated
NC-11 (Open)
Year Name U.S. House Net Gain/Loss
OK-2 (Open)
1976 Ford Dems +1 Seat
NY-21 (Owens)
1980 Carter Dems -34 Seats
NY-27 (Hochul)
1992 Bush (41) GOP +9 Seats
UT-4 (Matheson)
Source: Roll Call, as of August 27, 2012
37
38. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
38
