'The Budapest, Hungary Radio Market: October 1997' by Grant Goddard

THE BUDAPEST, HUNGARY
RADIO MARKET

by
GRANT GODDARD

www.grantgoddard.co.uk
October 1997

MARKET OVERVIEW
The Budapest radio market is in a state of flux. Until recently there has been
very little genuine competition between stations. Since 1995, state-owned (but
commercial) Danubius has been in head-to-head competition with commercial
station Juventus to be the predominant music format in the city. Both stations
are quite similar. But recent months have seen an influx of newly licensed
stations with more varied formats. These newcomers are likely to chip away
the audiences of both Danubius and Juventus in varying degrees over time.
And the impending arrival of a new, national commercial station will complicate
the market even more.
TABLE 1: BUDAPEST RADIO STATIONS

frequency

station

FM
89.5
92.9
94.8
96.4
100.3
102.1
103.3
105.3

Juventus
Star
Petofi
Melody FM/Budapest Radio
Radio 1
Bridge
Danubius
Bartok

The Budapest, Hungary Radio Market
©1997 Grant Goddard

page 2

RATINGS
The published ratings of the two research companies - Gfk and Gallup - refer
to the national market as a whole and offer scant information about Budapest
alone. The lack of information poses a serious problem, because it is in
Budapest that the radio market is undergoing dramatic change, with new
stations broadcasting only in the capital.
A visit to Gfk did provide me with the top-line results of a telephone survey of
some 500 respondents living in Budapest. The drawback is that the survey
was commissioned from Gfk by one of the new stations, Star, and (surprise
surprise) gives Star an impressive weekly reach figure of 26.5%. Compare this
figure with the equivalent statistic for Star provided by Gallup - 6.8% - and you
see that the difference is too great to be explained by “statistical error”. I also
learned that Gfk conducted all the pre-launch research for Star, which begs
two questions: if the research was any good, why is Star not successfully
attracting listeners?; and would not you do the utmost to prove that the product
is successful, if you had earlier been commissioned to do the pre-launch
research? I have examined carefully the Gfk data for Budapest and find it
totally unconvincing.
My visit to Gallup was more fruitful. Although Gallup, like Gfk, only publish data
for the whole of Hungary, they were kind enough to provide me with a breakout of data for Budapest alone. Gallup’s research is diary-based, which is far
preferable to Gfk’s telephone methodology. The constraints upon my time in
Budapest denied me the opportunity to obtain very detailed data from Gallup.
The data in my hands is limited to reach/share and time spent listening. This is
sufficient for a basic overview of the Budapest market - assuming that Gallup’s
methodology is more believable than Gfk’s - but denies the opportunity to
perform a detailed analysis of individual stations’ performances.
In the tables below, I have used the Gallup data exclusively. The Gfk data is
not worthy of reproduction here and, anyway, contradicts the Gallup data in
several places.


page 3

TABLE 2: CUME & T.S.L.

weekly
reach
Budapest
%

average
time
listened
per week
per station
listener
(mins)

33.8
33.3
29.7
27.7
20.7
6.8
3.2
2.4

327
186
228
132
202
37
10
9

966
559
767
477
975
545
302
366

2.2

Juventus
Kossuth [state]
Danubius [state/comm]
Petofi [state]
Calypso
Star
Bartok [state]
Bridge

average
time
listened
per week
per head of
population
(mins)

8

373

other stations
source: Magyar Gallup, May 1997
sample = 411 diaries in Budapest

TABLE 3: CUME BY AGE

ages

------------------weekly reach Budapest %-----------------14-17
18-29
30-49
50-65
>65

Juventus
69.4
Danubius [state/comm] 61.1
Petofi [state]
5.6
Kossuth [state]
0.0
Calypso
16.7
Star
5.6
Bartok [state]
0.0
Bridge
0.0
other stations

2.8

50.0
41.7
14.3
10.7
20.2
13.1
0.0
7.1

36.8
35.2
28.0
27.2
20.0
8.8
3.2
2.4

16.5
16.5
39.1
51.3
25.2
2.6
6.1
0.9

13.7
3.9
39.2
68.6
15.7
2.0
3.9
0.0

6.0

0.8

1.7

0.0



page 4

TABLE 4: T.S.L. BY AGE

ages

---------average minutes listened per week----------14-17
18-29
30-49
50-65
>65

Juventus
Danubius [state/comm]
Petofi [state]
Kossuth [state]
Calypso
Star
Bartok [state]
Bridge

516
293
5
0
45
16
0
0

554
322
29
46
136
82
0
17

393
350
159
119
224
38
10
12

135
89
178
308
275
17
21
6

90
38
225
439
201
22
5
0

8

17

0

14

0

other stations


page 5

STATIONS’ PROGRAMMING
Monitoring each station’s weekday, daytime output showed that their music
policies have the following characteristics:
TABLE 5: RADIO STATIONS' MUSIC CONTENT

Danubius

Juventus

Star

Radio 1

8

24

16

13

2

% pop/dance
% pop/rock

44
16

20
12

5

59
22

16
39

% 1997 songs

49

31

-

64

29

% 1990s songs
% 1980s songs
% 1970s songs
% 1960s songs
% 1950s songs

74
23
3
-

58
27
7
8
-

2
37
29
29
3

95
4
1
-

58
33
8
1
-

% UK Top 10 hits

28

56

65

8

32

% Hungarian songs

Bridge

In addition to these five stations, I listened to Melody FM/Budapest Radio for
an entire day, but their format proved difficult to analyse. I could not recognise
many of the songs played; there were substantial parts of the programming
dedicated to talk and interviews; there was a Polygram programme wherein all
the songs played were Polygram’s sales priorities; there was a programme of
Hungarian music; and there were “live” recordings of hit songs. It is difficult to
summarise the music that could be identified - there were some current hits,
some hits from the 1980s ad 1990s, very little dance music, and a lot of
unfamiliar songs. Gallup had no ratings data available which makes it
impossible to judge whether these two new stations (sharing one frequency)
are successful or not. Certainly, if the stations are attracting an audience, it is
unlikely to be because of their music policies.
Danubius is a typical current-based, East European station. Nearly half the
songs played are dance-orientated, half the songs are currents, and threequarters of everything played is from the 1990s. Predictably, Danubius enjoys
its greatest success in the youth market. Its morning show is an adaptation of a
“zoo” format, playing only 8 songs per hour, but the rest of the day is more
music-intensive, with 11 or 12 songs per hour between the frequent
commercials.
Juventus is a variant on the Danubius format. Juventus plays much less
dance music (20% to Danubius’ 44%). Juventus plays fewer current hits (31%
to Danubius’ 49%). Juventus plays a lower proportion of songs from the 1990s
(58% to Danubius’ 74%). Instead, Juventus plays more mainstream pop music,

page 6

more music from the 1960s and 1970s, and more Hungarian music than does
Danubius. And, very importantly, Juventus plays more Top 10 hits - 56% of
songs, compared to Danubius’ 28% - and is more music-intensive than
Danubius throughout the day.
But Juventus does not offer a substantially different music format to Danubius.
It is really a watered-down version of Danubius, with some minor
improvements and modifications. The lower proportion of dance songs played
on Juventus, combined with the more frequently played big hit songs, give it
the edge over Danubius with the older segments of the radio audience [see
Table 3], and give it longer listening times in all demographics [see Table 4].
Star offers a very different format from both Danubius and Juventus. It plays
no dance music whatsoever, and plays very little rock-orientated music (5% of
songs, compared to Danubius’ 16% and Juventus’ 12%). It plays no current
hits. It plays almost no songs from the 1990s (2%). Instead, Star plays songs
from the 1980s, 1970s and 1960s in roughly equal proportions, and a very
small number of 1950s songs (3%). Star has an even higher proportion of Top
10 songs (65%) than Juventus (56%). There is a substantial amount of talk in
the morning show, but the remainder of the day is very music-intensive.
From its format, Star would be expected to appeal to an older demographic
than both Danubius and Juventus. But the ratings data shows Star having
negligible appeal for the over-30 audience [see Table 3]. Instead, Star’s main
audience derives from the 18-29 age group, the very same demographic that
listens to Danubius and Juventus. [A note of caution: the next highest age
group used by Gallup - 30-49 years - is too broad to be of much use. It might
be that Star has a substantial audience amongst 30-39 year olds, but no
audience amongst 40-49 year olds. On the other hand, both Danubius and
Juventus perform substantially better than Star in this 30-49 age group,
despite their high proportions of dance music and current hits, so that Star
would be expected to perform as well as them, or even better.] This paradox
deserves further attention.
Radio 1 is a relatively new station that was starting its broadcast day at 12
noon while I was in Budapest. I understand that it was due to extend its
transmissions to 24 hours per day in October. Until now, Danubius has been
the most youth-orientated station in the market. But Radio 1 is succeeding in
being even more “youthful” than Danubius. Radio 1 has more dance music
than Danubius (59% to Danubius’ 44%), more rock music than Danubius (22%
to 16%), more current hits than Danubius (64% to 49%), and more 1990s
music than Danubius (95% to 74%). Radio 1’s whole style of programming is
far more exciting than Danubius, which has changed little over the last few
years. There are as yet no ratings in the Gallup data for Radio 1, but in the
long run the station is likely to dent both Danubius and Juventus’ ratings in the
youth market.
Bridge has been a ratings failure for many years, never quite certain of its
format and never offering more than a jukebox during the daytime. The
morning and afternoon drivetime financial information programmes certainly kill

page 7

any notion that Bridge is a pure music station. Bridge continues to schedule
more rock-orientated music (39% of songs) than the other stations. It also
plays a fair proportion of new songs (29%), but few Hungarian songs (2%).
The factor that really clinches Bridge’s failure is the relatively low percentage of
Top 10 hits it plays (32%) compared to its competitors. [In other East European
markets, 32% would be considered quite high, but the hit-orientated music
policies of both Juventus and Star have upped the ante in Budapest.]


page 8

STAR’S FAILINGS
The Budapest market is too crowded with stations targeting the youth market:
Danubius, Juventus, Radio 1 and Bridge. Only Star is attempting to aim at a
different, older demographic, but the Gallup data seems to indicate that it has
so far failed to secure a substantial listenership. Why is this so? There could
be several reasons:









the morning show has too much talk content;
there are almost no 1990s songs in the format (2%);
there are too many 1970s songs in the format (29%);
the music library contains too many UK hits that are unknown in
Hungary;
the music library contains too many US hits that are unknown in
Hungary;
there are too few AC-type hits in the format.

Star’s music library sounds as if it has been copied wholesale from a UK oldies
station, without much prior research in the Hungarian market to determine
whether such an imported format is entirely appropriate. [In fact, all the oldies
played on Star take only one stereo channel from the original recording, so
listeners effectively hear only “half” of each song. This is a sure sign that an
error was made in copying these songs to tape from an existing library.]
Although Star’s format would make it sound like a viable oldies station in the
UK (or even US) markets, in Hungary probably as many as half of the songs
played have no recognition factor with the audience. Particularly problematic
are the high proportions of 1970s and 1960s songs played on Star.
Hungarians’ knowledge of these decades is minimal, outside of the very
biggest hits by the very biggest artists (Beatles, Abba, Boney M, etc).
Not everything on Star is wrong. There are some programming policies that the
station is correctly implementing to attract its target demographic:






“more music, less talk” [except for the morning show];
no dance music;
a high proportion of 1980s music;
a high proportion of Top 10 hits;
no current hits.


page 9

SUGGESTED FORMAT & ACTION PLAN
The youth radio market is already too crowded. Star has the correct idea to
aim a format at an older audience, but its execution of the idea has failed.
There is a definite gap in the market, but the lack of available and accurate
ratings data make it difficult to determine exactly how large that gap is.
Qualitative research needs to be conducted in Budapest amongst the target 25
to 45 age group (with the core group aged 30 to 40) to determine:
DANUBIUS LISTENERS

why do respondents in this demographic listen to Danubius?

what are the positive aspects of programming for this demographic?

what are the negative aspects of programming for this demographic?

what changes would respondents make to the station?

discussion issues are: the high % of dance music, the high % of
current hits, the high % of 1990s songs, the relatively low % of Top
10 hits, the relatively low % of Hungarian songs.
JUVENTUS LISTENERS

why do respondents in this demographic listen to Juventus?




discussion issues are: the low % of dance music, the high % of
current hits, the high % of Hungarian songs, the relatively high % of
Top 10 hits.
STAR LISTENERS

why do respondents in this demographic listen to Star?

how did they discover the station?




discussion issues are: the lack of dance music, the lack of current
hits, the low % of 1990s songs, the high % of 1980s, 1970s and
1960s songs, the relatively high % of Top 10 hits.
ALL LISTENERS

awareness of different stations;

trial of different stations;

perceived programming differences between different stations;

perceived target audiences of different stations;

changes in listening habits since the launch of new stations;

awareness of station logos & marketing campaigns.


page 10

It would be productive to play examples of the music format of each station to
respondents and to ask them to evaluate each in turn. Additionally, a
“prototype” music format should be tested in the same way. The prototype
would correct the possible problems with the Star format: reduce the amount of
1950s, 1960s and 1970s songs; increase the number of 1990s songs;
increase the number of Top 10 hits; increase the number of AC-type songs;
increase the number of recognised hits in East/Central Europe.
Alongside the qualitative research, it would be useful to try and extract more
detailed ratings data from Gallup to examine. It is difficult to know exactly what
additional information can be gleaned from Gallup, without viewing the diary
questionnaire Gallup gives to respondents, and without examining how this
information is collated onto Gallup’s computer database. It would be
particularly useful to break the age groups in the Gallup data reproduced here
into smaller segments.
The object of this research is to determine with certainty the weak
programming aspects of Danubius, Juventus and Star in the minds of the 2545 age group, and to assess the potential of a prototype format that addresses
these weaknesses. Such research could be conducted in Budapest in
conjunction with a local research company (preferably not Gfk or Gallup).

Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk


page 11

'The Budapest, Hungary Radio Market: October 1997' by Grant Goddard

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'The Budapest, Hungary Radio Market: October 1997' by Grant Goddard