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Mobile Goes Mainstreet: Consumers Lead the Way — Key Trends and Investment Opportunites

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Mobile Goes Mainstreet: Consumers Lead the Way — Key Trends and Investment Opportunites

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The number of smartphone users in the U.S. is consistently growing and the connected user is turning to mobile more and more frequently for everyday consumption. Global mobile data traffic is predicted to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Smartphone and tablet revenues overtook traditional desktop and laptop revenues in 2013. At the same time, the amount of time users are spending on mobile daily is increasing. Mobile commerce sales are reaching all-time highs, and now represent 12% of total digital commerce, while mobile traffic represent about 40% for major eCommerce retailers such as Amazon, eBay, Apple, and Walmart.

The mobile industry was unquestionably the most important growth channel across digital media. Some of the most important trends we’ve seen in the sector include:

Average mobile (plus tablet) time spend now equal to desktop
Mobile is no longer just for gaming. Growing number
of use cases and apps hitting mass adoption— utilities, productivity,shopping, media & entertainment
Total mobile ad revenue grew twofold in 2013, and still only represents 2% of total ad spend but 12% of total media time spend
Strong M&A and funding environment – First $1bn M&A deal in mobile. Q3’13 was record quarter for mobile
Digital media leaders such as Facebook and Twitter realigned their organizations to mobile over the past two years and now see 40% plus of their revenue from the mobile channel
The evolution of mobile as the next computing platform is just beginning to take shape, bringing new billion market opportunities to the digital media ecosystem. We believe it is still early in this evolution and expect to see new technologies and innovative applications to fuel continued growth over the next five years.

The number of smartphone users in the U.S. is consistently growing and the connected user is turning to mobile more and more frequently for everyday consumption. Global mobile data traffic is predicted to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Smartphone and tablet revenues overtook traditional desktop and laptop revenues in 2013. At the same time, the amount of time users are spending on mobile daily is increasing. Mobile commerce sales are reaching all-time highs, and now represent 12% of total digital commerce, while mobile traffic represent about 40% for major eCommerce retailers such as Amazon, eBay, Apple, and Walmart.

The mobile industry was unquestionably the most important growth channel across digital media. Some of the most important trends we’ve seen in the sector include:

Average mobile (plus tablet) time spend now equal to desktop
Mobile is no longer just for gaming. Growing number
of use cases and apps hitting mass adoption— utilities, productivity,shopping, media & entertainment
Total mobile ad revenue grew twofold in 2013, and still only represents 2% of total ad spend but 12% of total media time spend
Strong M&A and funding environment – First $1bn M&A deal in mobile. Q3’13 was record quarter for mobile
Digital media leaders such as Facebook and Twitter realigned their organizations to mobile over the past two years and now see 40% plus of their revenue from the mobile channel
The evolution of mobile as the next computing platform is just beginning to take shape, bringing new billion market opportunities to the digital media ecosystem. We believe it is still early in this evolution and expect to see new technologies and innovative applications to fuel continued growth over the next five years.

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Mobile Goes Mainstreet: Consumers Lead the Way — Key Trends and Investment Opportunites

  1. 1. January 2014
  2. 2. A Word from Gridley & Company, LLC The number of smartphone users in the U.S. is consistently growing and the connected user is turning to mobile more and more frequently for everyday consumption. Global mobile data traffic is predicted to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Smartphone and tablet revenues overtook traditional desktop and laptop revenues in 2013. At the same time, the amount of time users are spending on mobile daily is increasing. Mobile commerce sales are reaching all-time highs, and now represent 12% of total digital commerce, while mobile traffic represent about 40% for major eCommerce retailers such as Amazon, eBay, Apple, and Walmart. The mobile industry was unquestionably the most important growth channel across digital media. Some of the most important trends we’ve seen in the sector include: • Average mobile (plus tablet) timespend now equal to desktop • Mobile is no longer just a just for gaming. Growing number of use cases and apps hitting mass adoption— utilities, productivity, The evolution of mobile as the next computing platform is just beginning to take shape, bringing new billion market opportunities to the digital media ecosystem. We believe it is still early in this evolution and expect to see new technologies and innovative applications to fuel continued growth over the next five years We hope you enjoy this overview and our perspectives. Please call us to discuss the content of this report. 2 shopping, media & entertainment • Total mobile ad revenue grew twofold in 2013, and still only represents 2% of total ad spend but 12% of total media time spend • Strong M&A and funding environment – First $1bn M&A deal in mobile. Q3’13 was record quarter for mobile • Digital media leaders such as Facebook and Twitter realigned their organizations to mobile over the past two years and now see 40% plus of their revenue from the mobile channel Linda Gridley President & CEO linda.gridley@gridleyco.com 212-400-9710 Source: Pew Research Center, ComScore, Equity Research. Pratik Patel Managing Director pratik.patel@gridleyco.com 212-400-9712
  3. 3. 3 Table of Contents I. Key Themes II. Mobile Sector Overviews  Advertising  Location Based Marketing  Payments  Vertical Apps III. Summary Thoughts
  4. 4. I. Key Themes
  5. 5. Mobile = Most Important Broad Theme in 2013 5 Average Timespend Per Day (minutes) 142 153 147 139 10 22 43 67 1 12 40 63 2010 2011 2012 2013 Desktop/laptop Smartphone Tablet Source: eMarketer, Jul. 2013. US Data Mobile Timespend is Spread Broadly Email 9% Other 7% Source: Experian Marketing Services, May 2013. US Data (in billions) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Global Installed Base Desktops+Notebooks Smartphones+Tablets 2013 Projected Inflection Point Mobile Usage > PC Usage 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Assumes the following lifecycles: Desktop PCs – 5 years: Notebook PCs – 4 years; Smartphones – 2 years; Tablets – 2.5 years. Source: Equity Research, 2012. Global data. Non-Talk Applications = 70% Of Timespend Text 20% Browser 14% Social 16% Talk 26% Games 8%
  6. 6. 6 Key Trends in Mobile • 2013 was the year of mobile from many perspectives ‒ Positive mobile consumption trends, overtaking desktop ‒ Internet leaders executed multiple large scale M&A deals ‒ Scaled consumer adoption of vertical specific applications such as and • and are educating the broader market on value of mobile marketing • Mobile driving much of the innovation in the payments sector today ‒ Exciting opportunity in the convergence between marketing and payments
  7. 7. Mobile Commerce is Rapidly Growing Mobile Share Of Traffic & Commerce Traffic Split for Notable Commerce Companies 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 7 72 44 38 29 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Amazon eBay Apple Wal-Mart Unique Visitors by Platform (in millions) 5% 0% Source: comScore, Dec. 2013. US Data Source: Walker Sands Digital, comScore. Based on US based firms, measuring traffic from US and non-US users 44% 56% 38% 47% 2.5% 12% Mobile % 44% 47% 56% 38% % of Internet Traffic % of Digital Commerce Mobile Only PC Only PC + Mobile
  8. 8. Rapid Scalability Drives Investment in Mobile 8 Unprecedented Mobile Adoption Cycle 38 13 4 3.5 0.5 Source: Digital Buzz Blog, Extreme Networks 50 days 35 days Radio TV Internet VC Investment Commentary • Mobile funding and deals have grown steadily over the past eight quarters • Q3 2013 was the biggest VC financing quarter in the history of mobile, crossing the $1B mark • Q3 2013 also saw the highest number of deals in mobile ever, the first time mobile VC deal share surpassed the healthcare sector Time It Took to Reach 50 Million Users (Years) Source: CB Insights, 2013
  9. 9. 9 Social is Mainstream • Chart showing how many users facebook, instagram, twitter, pinterest have over time (should show a lot currently). Use whatever the largest number is— doesn’t have to be MAU, could just be registered users
  10. 10. Top 2013 Mobile M&A and Private Financings 10 Notable M&A $155MM $361MM $225MM $100MM $66MM $60MM $100MM Notable Private Financings Acquirer Target Company $966MM $350MM $261MM Jun. 2013 Sep. 2013 Aug. 2013 Feb. 2013 Apr. 2013 Aug. 2013 May 2013 Sep. 2013 Jul. 2013 May 2013 $70MM Nov. 2013 $50MM Dec. 2013 Acquiring mobile teams 2013
  11. 11. Using M&A to Build out Multi-Channel Capabilities eBay made a series of mobile related acquisitions to become the early leader in omnichannel/next generation retailing Discover Pay 11 In-store scanner Nearby Used, online Online retail Nearby Used, online Online retail Virtual goods Local Retailers / SMB Any product Store locator and location-based deals Retailer At Home Better Merchandising Card-in-cloud Online social retail
  12. 12. Advertising Location Based Payments Vertical Apps 12 The Mobile Universe Select Leading Independent Players Messaging Gaming Productivity Media & Entertainment Marketing
  13. 13. Advertising Location Based Marketing 13 Sector Payments Vertical Apps
  14. 14. CMO’s Are Recognizing the Opportunity in Mobile Gap in Media Exposure vs Ad Spend $80.0 Mobile Internet Ad Spending Worldwide $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 14 40% 25% 13% 12% 5% 39% 21% 9% 2% 21% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% TV Online Radio Mobile Print 119.3% 105.9% 62.1% 44.6% 33.5% 27.2% $8.8 $18.2 $29.4 $42.6 $56.9 $72.3 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% $0.0 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2012 Source: eMarketer, Oct. 2012 (left), Jan. 2014 (right) ($ billions) YoY Growth
  15. 15. Internet Leaders See Significant Growth in Mobile Market Leaders Turn To Mobile Rapid Market Shift in 2013 (1) 15 Google Other Facebook Pandora Twitter Millennial Media Yellow Pages 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 Facebook and Twitter Ad Revenue Mix Facebook Twitter Facebook Has Scaled Mobile in 2013 0% 18% 42% 53% 55% 0% 52% 55% 60% 62% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7.0% 14.0% 23.0% 30.0% 41.0% 46.4% Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Mobile % Ad Revenue Mobile % Ad Revenue % Market Share Source: Company reports and filings, 2012 & 2013; eMarketer, Dec 2013. Facebook takes 20% of market in two years
  16. 16. The Mobile Advertising Universe  Considerable increase in available budgets over past three years and brands/agencies follow their targeted audience onto mobile  Many companies moving across channels to include traditional display and leveraging location based data in varying degrees to effect a media buy  2013 was an important year for mobile RTB with many key players building or acquiring technologies to enhance programmatic buying  Mobile is increasingly dominated by apps, with 80% of consumer time spent vs. browser  Different technical requirements to drive performance in app environment given different data sets creating clear differentiation in the market 16 Notable Themes Advertising Select independent companies. Source: IAB Mobile.
  17. 17. Mobile Advertising M&A and Financings 17 Notable M&A $261MM $16MM Notable Private Financings Acquirer Target Company $36MM $25MM Aug. 2013 Feb. 2013 Feb. 2013 $14MM Jul. 2013 May 2013 $16MM $13MM Jul. 2013 Dec. 2013 $316MM Jul. 2013 $16MM Apr. 2013 $155MM Feb. 2013 $350MM Sep. 2013 $14MM undisclosed Feb. 2013 Nov. 2013 Jul. 2013 Jul. 2013 May 2013 May 2013 undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed May 2013 $7MM
  18. 18. Advertising Location Based Marketing 18 Sector Payments Vertical Apps
  19. 19. Consumers Use Mobile Phones to Evaluate Real-World Purchases, Creating New Marketing Opportunities 90% Of smartphone shoppers use their phone for pre-shopping activities Of smartphone shoppers use their devices to help shop while in a store Shoppers use their smartphones to find information instead of asking store employees 84% 50% 34% 40% 25% Source: “Mobile In-Store Research,” Google and Shopper Marketing Council (Apr. 2013) 19 Increase in Health & Beauty 1 in 3 Mobile Influences Path To Purchase Mobile Increases Median Basket Sizes Increase in Electronics Increase in Household Care Increase in Appliances
  20. 20. Massive Strategic Opportunity with Mobile + Local 20 $1.0 Rise of Localized Mobile Marketing National Local $1.5 $2.2 $2.9 $3.6 $4.1 $0.7 $1.2 $2.1 $3.1 $4.5 $5.8 $1.7 $2.7 $4.3 $6.0 $8.1 $9.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: BIA Kelsey, (Jan. 2013); BI Intelligence; Balihoo (Oct 2012) 41% 58% Local vs. National Mobile Ad Spend ($ billions) Nearly 20% of the world population is using LBS Worldwide Users: 2011-2016 (in millions) LBS expected to bring in $10 billion in revenue from consumers and advertisers by 2016. Over 50% will come from location based search advertising 502 747 1,054 1,391 1,746 2,093 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  21. 21. Location Based Marketing Mobile Leaders 21 • Over 90% of US consumers make local purchase after using Yelp app • Qype acquisition to accelerate in Europe • Launched a Nearby feature in mid 2013 for local business discovery • Nearby Places combines local location discovery and friend recommendations • Places directory allows tagging, commenting, posting and social mapping by location • Merchant Platform helps developers build mobile experiences for customers that respond to check-ins • Venue Push API gives real-time view of activity at venues • All user check-ins are now public • Considerable clout in retail vertical with various retailer solutions plus Paypal • Various acquisitions (Milo, Where, Red Laser) to connect online/offline commerce • Experimenting with eBay Now offers one-hour delivery for a flat rate of $5 • Testing a feature called Nearby that shows recent local tweets and whether you follow the tweeter • Trends services hundreds of cities, allowing users to see what tweeters in other locations are talking about • Largest network of local advertisers of any digital company • Waze acquisition to improve real-time updates on Maps • Zagat acquisition provided credibility in local content
  22. 22. The Location Based Marketing Mobile Universe Location Based Notable Themes  Location based marketing quickly become a battleground among technology incumbents  eBay with Paypal  Google with maps, payments, search, O/S and commerce capabilities  Apple with Passbook and recent location based M&A deals  Near-store and in-store solutions currently served by different companies as location technologies develop  Near-store solutions leveraging geofencing technologies to drive marketing campaign  In-store location technologies vary based on approach and radio protocol and is still early in retail adoption 22 Marketing Select independent companies.
  23. 23. Location Based Marketing M&A and Financings 23 Notable M&A $11MM Notable Private Financings Acquirer Target Company Mar. 2013 Oct. 2013 Jan. 2013 $1.1BN Mar. 2013 $13MM Apr. 2013 $20MM May 2013 $41MM Apr. 2013 $8MM $3MM May 2013 Sep. 2013 Jul. 2013 $10MM $6MM Sep. 2013 Sep. 2013 $30MM Dec. 2013 $16MM undisclosed Nov. 2013 undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed $3MM Dec. 2013 $10MM Oct. 2013 $3MM Feb. 2013
  24. 24. Advertising Location Based Marketing 24 Sector Payments Vertical Apps
  25. 25. Considerable Excitement for Mobile Payments Globally, Early Stage in Consumer Adoption In U.S. a Number Compelling, High Growth Category Globally of Reasons for Slower Adoption 25 35% 36% 38% 30% 16% Do not trust the technology Do not have feature on phone Do not see benefit Other pay methods easier Concerned payment security $160 Billion $10 Trillion Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, Equity Research, Gemalto, eMarketer, Yankee Group.. Consumers are Interested but Uptake is Slow Mobile Payment Growing 12x faster than card payment from 2008 - 2012 Card Payment Growing 3x faster than total consumer spending from 2003- 2012 Retail Purchases Growing 3x faster than total consumer spending from 2003- 2012 $30 Trillion 68% 14% Interested Used in the Last Three Months
  26. 26. Targeted Marketing is a Very Important Use Case for Consumer Adoption 26 Internet Coupons Drive Significantly Higher Redemption Rates 1% 10% Free-standing Insert Internet Source: Inmar, Morgan Stanley Research Although Vast Majority of Coupons Are Still FSIs That Should Change in Two Years
  27. 27. POS – A Major Battleground in Mobile 27 Market Research / Data Analytics Account Marketing Digital Commerce Payments eReceipts Consumer
  28. 28. The Independent Mobile Payments Startup Universe 28 Payments Notable Themes  Multiple players going after in-store for mobile payments, with mixed results  For consumers, overcrowded and confusing digital wallet market ‒ Host of overlapping products and services ‒ Lack of standards for technology used in mobile wallets ‒ Environment ripe for further consolidation via M&A • Healthy M&A environment for emerging players Select independent companies.
  29. 29. Mobile Payments: Successful Brands  Rewards mobile app users with “Stars” in the Starbucks 29 Starbucks Home Depot Rewards program  Mobile app is compatible with Square  Square’s mobile credit card readers are sold at Starbucks cafes  Teamed up with PayPal to allow customers to pay in-store by typing in their phone number  Launched in January 2012, slowly catching up to the “swipe” method of payment
  30. 30. Current State of Key Mobile Payments Players 30 Traditional Networks • All major network players have released competitive mobile products in the past year ‒ Visa’s V.me, MasterCard’s MasterPass—geared at competing with Square • Mobile wallets have near-term positive impact for networks • Accelerate the shift away from cash/checks, especially in emerging markets • Long term disintermediation risk = adoption of mobile wallets that bypass traditional payments networks Emerging Digital Networks / mWallets • Selectively successful in gaining adoption based on ‒ Go to market strategy ‒ Partner ecosystem ‒ Solving real pain points for consumers and merchants • Revenue models and technology choices still vary widely ‒ Revenue model  Issuer fees  Marketing driven  Software  Lower acceptance costs ‒ Technologies  NFC  QR Code  Pin based  Dongles
  31. 31. Mobile Payments M&A and Financings Notable M&A Notable Private Financings Acquirer Target Company 31 Dec. 2013 $24MM $20MM $20MM Aug. 2013 Sep. 2013 $43MM Jun. 2013 Jun. 2013 $25MM $10MM Aug. 2013 Dec. 2013 $22MM $12MM Apr. 2013 Jul. 2013 $115MM Jan. 2013 $11MM $70MM Nov. 2013 $800MM Dec. 2013 Dec. 2013 undisclosed $7.5MM Sep. 2013
  32. 32. Advertising Location Based Marketing Payments 32 Sector Vertical Apps
  33. 33. 33 Global Mobile App Store Downloads (Billions of Downloads) 64 102 139 180 225 269 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 387% Fastest Growing App Categories By Sessions 268% 247% 237% 206% 198% 236% Average Growth 107% App Usage Dominates Mobile Consumption Source: Gartner (Sep. 2013) Source: Flurry (Oct. 2013)
  34. 34. Vertical Based Mobile Leaders Section/Leader Competitors Adjacent Verticals $BN Category 2013 Highlights 34 • Proliferation of the “Uber model” into other transportation-related verticals • Pandora only non-game top 10 iPhone app of 2013 • “Pandora model” replicated in other content verticals • Other privacy apps compete and specialty messaging apps gain traction • WhatsApp has 400mm active users • Exercise gamification • Convergence of mobile & wearables • Top iOS app of 2013 • 9 of top 10 most downloaded apps are in gaming Utilities Media & Entertainment Messaging Health & Wellness Gaming     
  35. 35. The Vertical Apps Mobile Universe Vertical Apps Notable Themes 35 Messaging Gaming Productivity Media & Entertainment  Multiple billion dollar categories in mobile ‒ Much deeper than two years ago and much broader than gaming  Gaming apps continue to be most downloaded, but gaming share of total usage declines  Messaging remains a stubbornly fragmented category ‒ Leadership varies with geography  Productivity applications deeper integrated into enterprise work flows, fueling mass adoption  Personalized content becomes the new norm for Media & Entertainment apps Select independent companies.
  36. 36. Vertical Apps Mobile M&A and Financings Acquirer Target Company 36 Notable M&A $10MM Notable Private Financings $66MM $16MM Aug. 2013 $1.1BN Jun. 2013 $50MM Dec. 2013 Jul. 2013 Aug. 2013 $16MM Jan. 2013 $361MM Aug. 2013 $20MM Nov. 2013 $50MM $25MM Nov. 2013 Jan. 2013 Mar. 2013 $150MM Nov. 2013 $10MM $18MM Aug. 2013 Undisclosed Undisclosed Undisclosed Undisclosed Undisclosed May 2013 May 2013 Dec. 2013 Jun. 2013 Feb. 2013 $100MM Sep. 2013 $50MM Jun. 2013 $60MM
  37. 37. III. Summary Thoughts
  38. 38. 38 Summary Thoughts Advertising Payments • Market at point of rapid growth • Facebook and Twitter transformed businesses to become mobile focused on 2013 • In-store mobile usage hitting mass adoption, market looking for a killer app • Google and Apple investing heavily in local tech capabilities • Tremendous opportunity, however consumer adoption still in early stages • Traditional network players building mobile capabilities to compete with emerging players such as Square and Paypal Location Based Vertical Apps • Multiple billion dollar categories formed in 2013 • Scaled usage into multiple verticals such as productivity, entertainment, and travel
  39. 39. Gridley & Company LLC 10 East 53rd Street, 24th Floor New York, NY 10022 212.400.9720 tel 212.400.9717 fax Twitter: @gridleyco www.gridleyco.com Linda Gridley President & CEO 212-400-9710 linda.gridley@gridleyco.com Pratik Patel Managing Director 212-400-9712 pratik.patel@gridleyco.com

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Driven by A Rapid Shift in Consumer Behavior
  • Notable M&A
    Continue to see large scale deals as mobile applications, complimented by tech/team and tuck in deals

    Notable Private Financings
    Aggressive VC market across the spectrum

    YAHOO  Acquiring large mobile teams
  • Local is Mobile’s killer app:
    Mobile’s “always present, always on, always connected” nature offers unrivalled opportunities for 1:1 personalized communications
    Real-time awareness of consumers’ current location opens a whole new world of popular consumer content
    Tracking consumers’ locations reveal deep insights on what consumers are likely to buy at what time in what context

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