100% Renewable Energy for BC: The Psycho-Politics of Success
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Presentation to the BCSEA Victoria Chapter, November 17th 2017. What are the emotional, analytical and engagement needs of champions? What are the barriers, and how can they be overcome?
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100% Renewable Energy for BC: The Psycho-Politics of Success
- 1. 100% Renewable Energy for BC The Psycho-Politics of Success 100% Renewable Energy for British Columbia 100% Renewable Energy for British Columbia Presentation by Guy Dauncey to the BC Sustainable Energy Association Victoria Chapter AGM, November 16th , 2017
- 4. The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher.
- 5. Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise
- 6. So what is our future to be?
- 8. A Great Transition is Possible
- 9. A Great Transition is Possible 100% RE
- 10. It’s up to each of us to choose. And then to act.
- 12. VANCOUVER has voted to go 100% RENEWABLE
- 13. VICTORIA has voted to go 100% RENEWABLE
- 14. SAAANICH has voted to go 100% RENEWABLE
- 15. 100% RE100% RE
- 16. CYNICS vs CHAMPIONS 100% RE100% RE
- 19. How best to educate children about climate change? Doomsday scenarios can frighten children, fueling helplessness and hopelessness. In a 2007 study of Australian 10-14 year olds, 27% believed that the world might end in their lifetimes due to climate change. Psychology Today, December 2015
- 21. So parents and environmental educators need to find the ‘sweet spot’ between well founded alarm and positive strategies. Our children, as future stewards of the planet, need hope. In a 2012 survey study of 723 Swedish teenagers, those who expressed “constructive hope” had more positive environmental attitudes and engaged in more positive behaviors such as reducing energy consumption and recycling. By contrast, those who felt hopeless or whose optimism was founded on denial of climate change did little or nothing. Psychology Today, December 2015
- 32. Guy Dauncey 2009 www.earthfuture.com©Antonia Dreamstime.com Powerful Emotion
- 34. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a + Powerful Analysis Canada’s Emissions Reductions Options
- 35. The falling price of EV batteries + Powerful Facts
- 37. Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels Welcome, Solar Age! No Blame
- 38. The Race to a Clean Green Economy The Race to a Clean Green Economy
- 39. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year renewable energy increase
- 40. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year 5-10% CO2 reduction
- 41. 100% RE100% RE
- 42. 100% RE100% RE Analyzing the Resistance
- 43. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE Ministry of Energy Resistance
- 44. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE Ministry of Energy Resistance The Middle Manager Conformity Effect Less willing to take risks and be original Prefers to follow the leader
- 45. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE Ministry of Energy Resistance List the people we know, the ones we don’t, and the key decision-makers. Develop a strategy.
- 46. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF Ministry of Energy Resistance Fossil Fuel Resistance
- 47. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF Ministry of Energy Resistance Fossil Fuel Resistance NDP Resistance NDP
- 48. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF Ministry of Energy Resistance Fossil Fuel Resistance NDP Resistance NDP Profile every MLA Find the champions Find the cynics Find the DUCKS “Adopt an MLA”
- 49. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF MediaMedia Ministry of Energy Resistance Fossil Fuel Resistance NDP Resistance Media Mockery NDP
- 50. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF MediaMedia Ministry of Energy Resistance Fossil Fuel Resistance NDP Resistance Media Mockery NDP Find media champions
- 52. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF MediaMedia Public Credibility Barrier Credibility NDP Credibility
- 53. 100% RE100% RE
- 54. FF100% RE100% RE
- 56. FF100% RE100% RE How-To Electricity Transportation Buildings Industry Farming Job Losses and Gains
- 57. FF100% RE100% RE How-To Electricity Transportation Buildings Industry Farming Job Losses and Gains Transition Pains and Benefits
- 58. FF100% RE100% RE Provincial Financial Impacts How-To Electricity Transportation Buildings Industry Farming Job Losses and Gains Transition Pains and Benefits
- 59. 100% RE100% RE
- 60. 100% RE100% RE Don’t be a Messiah, a Pollyanna
- 61. 100% RE100% RE Don’t be a Messiah, a Pollyanna Lay out all the Problems
- 62. 100% RE100% RE Engage the Cynics & Dissenters Don’t be a Messiah, a Pollyanna Lay out all the Problems
- 63. 100% RE100% RE Engage the Cynics & Dissenters Don’t be a Messiah, a Pollyanna Lay out all the Problems Engage people as problem- solvers
- 64. By 2025, Holland is preparing to ban the purchase of gas and diesel cars
- 66. 20 metres sea-level rise
- 67. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries 2018
- 71. Norway’s Transport Plan assumes that electric cars could have 100% share of new car sales by 2025.
- 72. From 2025, all BMWs to be electric
- 74. 2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000 www.motorizevictoria.ca
- 75. Barcelona is moving ALL buses to 100% electric by 2020
- 76. Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
- 77. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
- 78. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
- 79. Australian/Chinese Brighsun Bus 500 km on one charge, full passenger load
- 82. Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood. Less mutual support.
- 83. Which do you prefer…
- 84. Or
- 85. Or
- 86. Or
- 87. Passive Houses, Victoria 90% reduced heat loss
- 88. Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2 , 4.4% more cost www.bernhardtpassive.com
- 89. Stockholm, 80,000 apartments heat from treated sewage
- 90. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Stored Solar Thermal Heat
- 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comOkotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
- 93. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages
- 95. Energy Centre Community solar Thermal panels 90% solar heating throughout the cold Alberta winter
- 96. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero 100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage + Biomass cogeneration plant Stored Solar District Heat
- 97. Six Sources of Renewable Heat Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat
- 98. Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
- 99. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
- 102. HOW MANY FOSSIL FUEL JOBS WILL END? HOW MANY NEW JOBS WILL BE CREATED?
- 103. Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada By Guy Dauncey 800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
- 104. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Canada has 555,000 direct and indirect jobs in fossil fuels
- 105. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs disappear each year. If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs disappear each year. 555,000 Direct and Indirect Fossil Fuel Jobs
- 106. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Where will the new jobs be? 1.Renewable Electricity 2.Building Retrofits 3.Railway Electrification 4.Cycling 5.Electric Vehicles 6.Transit 7.Farming If by 2040: Can we create 22,000 new jobs a year? If by 2050: Can we create 16,000 new jobs year?
- 108. Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England “Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.”
- 109. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Canada Electricity Demand 2014 511 TWh Canada Electricity Demand 2040 750 TWh Canada Renewable Electricity 2013 330 TWh New Renewables Needed by 2040 420 TWh
- 110. 100% RE In BC 100% RE In BC 1. Political Strategy 2. Climate Action Circles
- 114. 100% RE100% RE
- 115. Sustained success because of: 1.Specific targeted action: letter-writing at each meeting 2.Training, back-up and support 3.Knowing they are part of a larger motivated movement
- 116. Grassroots Movement Climate Action Circles
- 117. Grassroots Movement Climate Action Circles Mental Learning
- 118. Grassroots Movement Climate Action Circles Practical Action Mental Learning
- 120. Grassroots Movement Climate Action Circles Social Warmth Practical Action Mental Learning
- 121. Grassroots Movement Climate Action Circles Social Warmth Practical Action Mental Learning Spiritual Connection
- 122. Political StrategyPolitical Strategy 100% RE100% RE
- 123. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
- 124. Six months Foundation Funded Six months Foundation Funded A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 100% RE100% RE
- 125. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions
- 126. UBC, UVic, SFU, UNBC Business Leaders Retired Political Leaders Global Status Endorsements Conferred credibility UBC, UVic, SFU, UNBC Business Leaders Retired Political Leaders Global Status Endorsements Conferred credibility Individual Credibility Champions 100% RE100% RE
- 127. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions 3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media
- 128. Advice from Dogwood Youth video host Logo contest Humor Hilarious cat videos 100% RE100% RE
- 129. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions 3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media 4. NGO Partner Champions
- 130. A Safe and Easy Sign-On Statement
- 131. A Safe and Easy Sign-On Statement Personal relationship With each NGO
- 132. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions 3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media 4. NGO Partner Champions 5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM
- 133. Brainstorm names Personal approach to each 100% RE 100% RE
- 134. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions 3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media 4. NGO Partner Champions 5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM 6. Two Year Strategy for Success
- 135. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data 2. Individual Credibility Champions 3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media 4. NGO Partner Champions 5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM 6. Two Year Strategy for Success 7. Climate Action Circles
- 136. 100% RE100% RE MoEMoE FFFF MediaMedia Public Credibility Barrier Credibility NDP Credibility
- 138. 100% RE
- 148. May 2019: “We are pleased to announce that after much thought and analysis, and due consideration of the costs to present and future generations of the looming climate catastrophe, we are making the commitment that we will strive to achieve as close as possible to 100% renewable energy for all of BC’s energy needs by 2040.”
- 149. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com 100% RE
- 150. Coming soon!
- 152. 100% RE!!!100% RE!!!