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CITY OF THE FUTURE
The View from 2032

Guy Dauncey, Living Future Symposium
Victoria, November 2013
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We’ve come a long way from this….

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To this …

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but…

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We’ve also come to this…

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©Smithore Dreamstime.com
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If everyone lived the way we do,
we'd need another two Earths

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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fossil fuels…
= 1,000 tonnes a second

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2007
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Monday

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OMG!
Daddy, you’re
going to die!!!!

Monday

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25 metres

18 metres

The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres

2 metres
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)

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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming

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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

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All of this must remain in the ground

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"Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas
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"Create your future from your future,
not your past.”
- Werner Erhard
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"Pain pushes until vision pulls."
- Michael Beckwith

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So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
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Ten Themes

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1: The Return of Nature
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Habitat for Urban Wildlife
Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel
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Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales
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London Fiel
Duncan Terrace GardensIslington,
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Back to Nature
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Turning THIS…

Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini,
New York

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into THIS.

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Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
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Musee du Quai Branly, Paris
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Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal
Patrick Blanc

Madrid’s vertical
garden is made up of
more than 15,000
plants, from 250
different species.

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Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc
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ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan
35,000 plants, 76 species
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Flower Tower, Paris, 2004
www.edouardfrancois.com
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United Bank of Switzerland
Basel
Singapore,
Editt Tower
(proposed)

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Singapore,
Editt Tower
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The Gherkin, London

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Before…

Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey, BC, Canada
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After…

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www.greenovergrey.com
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Vincent Callebaut
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Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for
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Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013
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Is this your dream home of the future?
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Or this?

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Or this?

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Ten Themes

2: Green, Sustainable Energy
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By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
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Zero Net Energy Housing

By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power back to the grid.

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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation

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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled

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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000

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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
5. Green building grants, education and technical services
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www.architecture2030.org
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Empire State Building
Sustainability
Retrofit

38%
reduced energy use

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The Passive House

Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside
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Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
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Construction costs:
4.3% more per square foot
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Monthly net energy savings
more than the increased mortgage
LED Lighting
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LED Chandeliers

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Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK

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63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW air source heat pump
2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps
Energy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels
BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes

Space heat: 88% less
Hot water: 57% less
Electricity: 25% less

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Energy
 Centre

Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED),

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Sutton, London, UK
Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-Source
Moisture-Source
Ground-Source
Water-Source
Sewer-Source
Ice-Source
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Solar (air source) Heat Pump

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Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump

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The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
50-75% reduced heating costs
Air moisture heat pump
50 years life span
Operates down to -25oC
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Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.

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Cruxifix
Ice-Stick
Heat Pump

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Ground-Source Solar Heat

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Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austria
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http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
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Water-Source Solar Heat

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Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

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Solar Hot Water
on a restaurant in
Sweden

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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
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Rizhao, China
www.solarbc.ca
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A project of the BCSEA
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Solar Thermal District Heat

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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages

90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
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Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre

Solar hot water
panels
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2007
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Community solar
heat panels
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Sorce: Solvis

Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

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In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
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Pre-insulated pipe used
to heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows delivery
of hot water at 200o C up
to 24 km, with only a few
degrees loss of heat.

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Solar PV

Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

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Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
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Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
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Solar PV

7000% increase
since 2000
100,000
GW in
2012

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3 kW PV System
$15,000 in Victoria
$12,000 if bulk 30 houses
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year

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Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
Cost of 3 kW system $15,000
$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300

2020
$3,000
$9,000
$12,780

kWh per year
25 years + 3% pa

3,300 kWh
$12,009

3,300 kWh
$14,768

Profit (Loss)

(-$9,291)

$1,988

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The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past

5,000,000
years future

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If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Firewood Solar
500,000 years
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If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Firewood Solar
500,000 years
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Fossil Solar
200 years
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Renewable Solar
1.75 billion years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
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Fossil Solar
200 years
Ten Themes

3: Sustainable Watersheds
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Restoring urban creeks and streams
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Still Creek, Vancouver.
Chum Salmon restored after 80 years

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Home Water Conservation:
Dual Flush Toilets

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Composting Toilets

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Rainwater
Storage

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Bioswale to capture rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle

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SEA Street, Seattle

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Water Conservation Credits in 2032
1. Builder seeks building permit for new house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses
earn conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing
houses, collect credits.
4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building
permit
5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO
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Ten Themes

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4: Reclaimed Streets
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Re-imagine
Re-design
Re-claim
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‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas
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In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office
contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for
Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that
narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes
to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience.
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Just for one day…
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Team Better Block
San Antonio, Texas
www.betterblock.org

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Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
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The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York
Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York,
with the Highline running through it

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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio
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London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
Thomas Heatherwick

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Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil

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Berge de Seine, Paris
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Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s
Place de la Republique, 2006
stephanekirkland.com

Place de la Republique, 2013
Ten Themes

5: Thriving Neighborhoods

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Portland, Oregon

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www.CityRepair.org
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EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand

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Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts

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Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, Missouri
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Possible Future: Jamestown Mall,
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Namba Parks
Osaka, Japan

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Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany
Ten Themes

6: Healthy Urban Organic Food
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www.talkgreentous.ca
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Moss Street Market, Victoria
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Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London
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Valencia, Spain

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Ten Themes

7: Sustainable Transportation
without Fossil Fuels

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Walking
Graben Street, Vienna
Times Square, New York
Toronto Walking School Bus
Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org
Cycling

Amsterdam
Amsterdam
Vancouver
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Bike Path in Cambridge, UK
Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing
particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during
the day and lights up like a starry sky at night.
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www.pro-teqsurfacing.com
City Bike Sharing, Washington DC
Electric Bicycles

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School at Assen, Holland
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Transit
In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)
Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km

www.opbrid.com
OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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Real-time electronic timetable
Bus shelter in Taiwan
LRT in Portland, Oregon
LRT in Mulhouse, France
Proyecto Urbano
Integral,
Medellin, Colombia

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Real-time Ride-sharing

www.car.ma
Car Sharing

Victoria Carshare Coop
650 members share 23 vehicles
See
www.victoriacarshare.ca
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month
Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas

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Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
75 km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km
312 mpg
Renault Twizy EV
2 seats, 100 km range,
3.5 hours recharge
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Tesla EV Model-X
7 seats
350 kilometers range
Honda solar electric car charging
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PV for EV
1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
= 10,000 km
PV for EV
1.5 kW PV = $7,500
25 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
Electric car fast charging
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www.cargohopper.com

Cargohopper
3 tonnes max
60 km range
20 kph top speed
Urban deliveries
Holland
EVs + Bikes = less urban noise

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No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

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Ten Themes

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8: A Strong Green
Local Economy
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Community
Economic
Education

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

1 Benefit Corporations
1
8
8

The
Community
Economy
in 2032

7
7

Community
Welfare
Basic
Income

2
2

Green Business
Certification

3
3

Village
Business
Networks

4 Coop Network
4

6
6
5
5
Values-Based Banking
1

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Benefit Corporations
2

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Green Business
Certification
3

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Village Business
Networks
4

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Cooperatives
Network
5

Values-Based
Banking
Interest-free banking
Debt Circles
Community currencies
Microfinance
Local business lending
Credit Unions
Bank of BC

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6

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Community Welfare
and
Basic Income
7

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
7

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
7

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

LoftCube
7

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
8

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Community
Economic
Education
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Ten Themes

9: A Thriving Artistic Culture
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK
YOUR POEM HERE
wake up your senses
walk with a dog in the rain
then roll on the rug
Kim Pearson
A violin plays
as the common space becomes
a place of beauty.
Jenny Gerbasi
Ten Themes

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

10: A Strong Participatory
Democracy
Community engagement
Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall
$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

Design the Future
Community Meetings
The Happy, Resilient City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens

Cheaper and healthier eating

Innovative affordable housing

Lower housing costs

Stronger neighbourhoods

More friends, more real community

More urban greenery

More inner space, and peace

Stronger community economy

More financial security

Green, energy-efficient homes

Lower energy costs

No more fossil fuels

Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement

Healthier political realm

Basic Income

Less poverty, fear and homelessness

More arts, music and neighbourhood
celebration

More friends, more happiness,
more love

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
BUT…
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
To reduce the risk
of this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We must do this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
To reduce the risk
of this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We must do this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
To reduce the risk
of this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We must do this …

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
A Green, Sustainable Future
is not an Option
It is an Absolute Necessity
in which we must all
become engaged
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

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