Dr. Anthea Bill presented on the Hunter economy and population at a research foundation. She outlined that national GDP growth is slowing while the local labor market and housing are issues. The Hunter region has experienced falling housing prices and building approvals. While internal migration flows to Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, there are also flows from Sydney and Melbourne to other regional areas. The presentation addressed debates on diverting population growth to regions and implications for further developing second cities through jobs, planning and infrastructure.

1. Presented by Dr Anthea Bill
Hunter Research Foundation Centre
15 NOVEMBER 2019
HUNTER ECONOMY AND
POPULATION

2. • Macro: national growth slows
• Local: labour & housing
• Population: internal migration
• Implications
PRESENTATION
OUTLINE

3. GDP GROWTH: UNDERWHELMING

4. BUSINESS & CONSUMER ACTIVITY
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index; NAB business conditions index deviation from average.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-40
0
40
80
120
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Business conditions (RHS)
Consumer sentiment (LHS)
Index Deviation average (% pts)

5. -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Projection
INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Advanced economies
Emerging market /
Developing economies
Australia
%
Source: IMF, 2019
Real GDP growth (% year on year)

6. SEPTEMBER 2019
HUNTER REGION
ECONOMY

7. 2,400
3,000
3,600
4,200
240
260
280
300
320
340
Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
'000'000
Hunter
NSW
LABOUR MARKET: FULL-TIME GROWTH
SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Labour Force Survey.

8. 2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Labour Force Survey
Hunter
NSW
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: BELOW STATE

9. $200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
HOUSING PRICES: FALLING
Newcastle
Lake Macquarie
Hunter Balance
Upper Hunter
Region
Source: APM PriceFinder.

10. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
SEP 09 SEP 11 SEP 13 SEP 15 SEP 17 SEP 19
HUNTER
(RHS)
APPROVALS: FALLING
New Houses Other (town houses, apartments etc.)
NSW (LHS)
Source: ABS, Building Approvals.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
SEP 09 SEP 11 SEP 13 SEP 15 SEP 17 SEP 19
Source: ABS, Building Approvals.
HUNTER
(RHS)
NSW (LHS)

11. HUNTER REGION
POPULATION

12. 0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
Regional
NSW=40,044
5,502, Newcastle/Lake
Mac
WHERE DO GREATER SYDNEY’S
OUT-MIGRANTS RE-LOCATE?
Source: ABS, Regional Migration Estimates, 2016-17.
38,662 (Melbourne & QLD)

13. WHERE DO GREATER MELBOURNE’S
OUT-MIGRANTS RE-LOCATE?
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Regional
VIC=30,053
Source: ABS, Regional Migration Estimates, 2016-17.
25,474 (Sydney & QLD)

14. NET INTERNAL MIGRATION
2017-18 All ages 0 - 14 15 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 years
& over
Hunter Balance 2,264 580 -339 1,022 821 180
Newcastle & Lake
Macquarie
-293 31 210 -551 109 -92
Ballarat 1,236 247 16 253 608 112
Bendigo 1,442 342 -36 566 464 106
Geelong 4,507 933 465 1,722 940 447
Illawarra 434 222 181 73 54 -96
Townsville -1,542 -324 52 -868 -301 -101
Greater Melbourne 5,675 -707 6,618 5,344 -4,666 -914
Greater Sydney -27,264 -9,382 1,845 -7,440 -9,229 -3,058
Source: ABS,
Regional Migration
Estimates, 2017-18.
* Defined using SA4s.

15. NET INTERNAL MIGRATION
Source: ABS,
Regional Migration
Estimates, 2017-18.
*Defined using SA3s.
2017-18 All ages 0 - 14 15 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64
65 years
& over
Newcastle & Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie - East -460 - 4 -236 -109 - 105 - 6
Lake Macquarie - West 762 256 -107 321 238 54
Newcastle -595 - 221 553 -763 - 24 -140
Hunter Valley Excl. Newcastle
Lower Hunter 995 391 -191 691 143 - 39
Maitland 1,279 199 167 586 251 76
Port Stephens 393 60 -162 - 89 411 173
Upper Hunter -403 - 70 -153 -166 16 - 30

16. NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION
2017-18
All
ages 0 – 14
15 –
24
25 –
44 45 – 64
65
years &
over
Hunter Balance 696 106 216 289 63 22
Newcastle & Lake
Macquarie
2,455 298 1,123 889 116 29
Ballarat 648 78 278 229 54 9
Bendigo 643 97 184 283 60 19
Geelong 2,073 330 832 774 122 15
Illawarra 2,467 236 1,355 763 95 18
Townsville 793 175 301 278 21 18
Greater Melbourne 77,971 9,565 37,543 26,946 3,436 481
Greater Sydney 77,091 8,799 36,321 28,308 3,180 483
Source: ABS,
Regional
Migration
Estimates,
2017-18.
* Defined using
SA4s.

17. SecondCities:UnlockingAustralia’sPotential
Grattan Institute’s Daley and Nolan (2018) argue:
A dangerous fantasy is taking hold in Australia:
that government policy can divert population
growth from our bulging capital cities to our needy
regions…it won’t work...it gives governments an
excuse to avoid hard decisions on planning and
transport needed to make housing more affordable
and cities more liveable.
“Australia’s Dangerous Fantasy: diverting population growth to the regions,” The Conversation 29 October 2018;
https://theconversation.com/australias-dangerous-fantasy-diverting-population-growth-to-the-regions-105052
POPULATION DEBATE

18. SecondCities:UnlockingAustralia’sPotential
1. Can the city & region trade on its positioning
between urban ‘benefits’ and ‘costs’
2. Some flows are happening organically
3. International migration?
4. Which come first: jobs or population?
Population – key in 3 P’s of economic growth
5. Further policy interventions
planning & infrastructure may assist to build the
region’s capacity to attract people from capital cities
IMPLICATIONS

19. THANK YOU
For joining us at our
2019 Economic Breakfast Series