Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand

Climate Change Adaptation:
Principle and some perspectives from Thailand
Suppakorn Chinvanno
Southeast Asia START Regional Center
Chulalongkorn University
SEA START RC copyright 2017

Climate Change Adaptation: Principle and some perspectives from Thailand
• Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia
• Climate change adaptation – What and Why
• Planning climate change adaptation – examples from Thailand
• Climate change adaptation – Future research agenda

• Planning climate change adaptation – examples from
Thailand
• Climate change adaptation – Future research agenda
Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and some examples

Climate Weather Extreme weather event
Climate change Climate variability
Climate
impact
Climate
threat
Climate
risk
Vulnerability
Be careful ! In many cases, these terms have been used in mixed and confusing meaning
– often out of the context
”Climate” is weather conditions in a particular place or region which is characterized
over period of time, i.e. 30-year period
Climate change – Some confusions?
Overview of climate change in mainland southeast Asia

• Confusion on “Climate” and “Change” - mixed up between climate
VS weather / change VS variability
• Over emphasize on the temperature increasing – global mean
temperature
• There are many ways to look at “change”

• Climate change is not uniform across space and time – do NOT
overlook multiple dimensions of climate change:
• Magnitude – change in range of weather pattern
• Frequency – change in return cycle of extreme weather event
• Distribution of change over space and time
• Geographical – e.g. area of hot area / distribution of
weather parameters over geographical area
• Temporal – e.g. length of season, onset – end of season,
distribution of weather parameters over time
Multiple dimensions of climate change
Different areas / systems / sectors have different concern on future
climate change

Average maximum temperature Annual highest temperatureVS
Example: Multiple dimensions of climate change - average VS extreme
Different aspects of change bring different risks

Example: Multiple dimensions of climate change – space and time
Change in average
maximum temperature
Change in hot period
over the year

Future GHG
Scenario
Future climate
Scenario
Climate model - simulation
Climate change = Visions of the future

Example – simulation result – ECHAM4 A2:
Average daily maximum temperature (oC)
Example: Future climate projection for Southeast Asia

Average annual maximum temperature (oC)
Hottest day of the year

Number of hot days in a year (>=35 oC)

Average daily minimum temperature (oC)

Coolest day of the year
Average annual minimum temperature (oC)

Number of cool day in a year (<=16 oC)

Change in annual precipitation compare to 1980’s (%)

Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand: Concerns and state of knowledge

Future climate projection - climate scenario:
• Climate scenario is only a plausible futures – NOT forecast
• Need to use in climate context, NOT weather
• Data from climate scenario is not “truth” – need to be
interpreted with care – it indicates direction and magnitude of
future change in a broad sense
• Good and less good information, never perfect information
• Uncertainty – need for multiple scenarios
• New and/or improved method and technique for generating
climate scenario is yet to come
Future climate projection is NOT super long range weather forecast
– it has to be used in the context of climate
Challenge: Transforming data into information for risk assessment

Global warming
Climate change
Mitigation:
Reduce global warming effect
Adaptation:
Increase climate resilience to future climate
Low carbon society Climate-proof society
Changes in season
pattern
Changes in rainfall
distribution
Changes in frequency &
magnitude of extreme
weather
Note: Changes are not uniform
Climate change adaptation – What and Why

1970s-early 1980s  What are ecological limits to human development and growth?
 How can we respond to climate change?
 What sort of impacts can system sustain?
 Will systems adapt automatically?
Late 1980s  What will the impact be?
 How much adaptation are society and ecosystems capable of?
 How much can ability to adapt offset need to mitigate?
1990s  Is mitigation more important than adaptation for responding to climate change?
 Mitigation and adaptation as alternatives to responding to climate change
Late 1990s  How can policy support adaptation?
 Who is vulnerable to climate change and why?
 Climate change will occur – adaptation will be necessary
 Close link between adaptation and development
Early 2000s  What constitutes adaptive capacity?
 How can adaptation be integrated into existing sustainable development plans?
 What is needed to mainstream adaptation?
 How can adaptation policy be designed?
Schipper, E.L.F. (2006) ‘Conceptual history of adaptation to climate change under the UNFCCC’, Review of European Community and
International Environmental law (RECIEL), vol 15, no 1, pp82-92
Adaptation thinking – an evolving subject
Shifting from scientific subject to human security and policy planning

Climate change adaptation … What is it about?
• Having strategy and plan to move society to be more secure /
resilience / robust to climate variability and change in the future
• To be certain that existing policy and plan will not lead society to be
under new threat in the future
• To be certain that development plan will still be able to achieve its
goal under future climate condition
Sustainable development in new paradigm
Human security – Resilience society – Robust economic system

Time
Size
Weather /
Climate
variability
Climate
change
Community
Province / Landscape - watershed Country
Extend vision into far future
Strategy and plan to increase resilience of society and robustness
of system/sector in long term under changing pressures
Season - year
Decade(s)
Climate change adaptation – what is it about?
Climate change adaptation as “Climate-wise development”

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into
development strategy and plan
Development plan
Target & goal
Climate change
Alter development strategic direction
Adjust development plan mobilization
New idea / innovation in risk management
Development plan will achieve goal under new climate condition
Society & economic system resilient and robust to future changes
New factor in
development planning

Vulnerability AdaptationImpact
Shifting from conventional approach – sequential assessment
Future
climate
projection
Future climate
change impact
analysis - sector
Vulnerability
analysis
Adaptation options
aim at solving future
problem – maintain
status quo
Climate
change
Need not put climate change at initial stage, but formulate the assessment
around the concern and context of community

IPCC Assessment Report 5 proposes risk-based assessment approach
Needs to be locally defined and assessed

Mainstream climate change into community development strategy & plan
• Linking current context with future – increase resilience against
climate risk both NOW & FUTURE
• Improve robustness of plan to cope with current climate threat in light
of climate change
Broaden context of climate change adaptation to development agenda
Understand risk from holistic view of future
Combine climate change and socio-economic change into consideration
• Factor in climate change into development planning process along
with other changes in society
• Seek for better way to manage risk in light of climate change as part of
development pathway

Place specific – no generic adaptation
Each place has specific risk profile - different condition / different preference
require adaptation to be tailoring planned based on local issue of concern
Who adapt to what?
Why and How?
System / sector /
economic group /
demographic group /
community / etc.
Future change – climate
• Change in season pattern
• Change in frequency and
magnitude of extreme
weather event
Future change – non-climate
• Socioeconomic change –
market condition,
migration, development
and infrastructure,
government policy, etc.
Risk / local problem
that may be changing
its profile in the future
And/or
Emerging risk/problem
from change in future
conditions (climate and
non climate combined)
• New development strategic direction
• New alternative in mobilizing strategy
• Innovation / new idea in risk management

Risk and
resilience of
system/sector
(now)
Change
profile /
concern?
Socio-economic condition
(past – present)
Climate (Past – present)
New ideas &
innovation in risk
managementFuture climate
Risk
(future)
(Future)
Sustainable / flexible
Development
Global warming
NOW FUTURE
Response to
current situation
Still
applicable
action?
Alternate
development
pathway
Different way to
drive development
strategy
Adaptation
Emerging
risk?

Climate Change Risk Assessment Process: 2-step approach
Step 1 – Baseline climate risk assessment (present) – Sector / sub-sectors
Concerned
risk
Concerned
risk
Defined as condition / situation that such sector
or sub-sector is being threaten and nature of
consequences under such circumstance
Response
Adequate
Yes / No
Consequences
Cause of risk
Chain of causes
Climate
Non-climate
Cause of risk
Climate
Non-climate
Cause of risk
Climate
Non-climate
Adaptive capacity
Response
Adequate
Yes / No
Consequences
Sector may be
experiencing
multiple risks /
concerns
1) Identify issues of concern – risk
2) Assess nature of risk – causal pressure and drivers
3) Assess coping strategy /
option / adaptive capacity
Impact
Impact
Stakeholders participation and experts opinion throughout the process in Step 1, however, desk
study may be required to verify opinions from the participatory process
Local problem(s)

Climate Change Risk Assessment Process: 2-step approach
Step 2 – Climate change risk assessment (future) – Sector / sub-sectors
Concerned
risk
Concerned
risk
Response Applicable / Adequate
Yes / No
Consequences
Cause of risk
Chain of causes
Future climate
Future socioeconomic condition
Cause of risk
Future climate
Cause of risk
Future climate
Adaptive capacity
Response
Applicable / Adequate
Yes / No
Consequences
Will there be
emerging risk?
2) Determine shift and
change in risk profile –
Stakeholders participation
1) Assess nature of risk – causal pressure and drivers
(note: multiple futures can be exercised to address long term uncertainty)
3) Assess Adaptation strategy / option
– Experts opinion / stakeholders
participation
Future socioeconomic condition
If no, then what?
Adaptation
Future
socioeconomic
condition
Technical
desk
study
Stakeholders participation /
experts opinion / desk study
Impact
Impact
Local problem(s)

Example: Farmer community in northeast region, Thailand
Lao-oi district, Kalasin Province, Thailand

Farming community: wet-season rice / community is located along river
Vulnerability to climate threat: high exposure to flood with limited coping
capacity
Community strategy: Won’t fight with flood – change to dry season rice – use
water from main river through pumping station and underground pipe system
Development pathway leads to dead end in light
of climate change?
Example - Case study: Lao-oi District, Thailand
5

Climate change trend: higher rainfall in rainy season – longer and warmer
summer
Source: IPCC AR4
Source: SEA START RC

Adaptation: Find alternative to small scale irrigation system.
Change from pump river water to water harvesting from
rainy season for dry season farming.

To revise development plan
Alternative in mobilizing strategy / alternate investment
New source of water for irrigation – harvest water during flood season for
dry season agriculture
To be embedded in water resource development plan
Climate resilience now and sustained in light of climate change
7

Climate Change: Why concern?
• Warmer and longer summertime
• Warmer and shorter winter
• Higher annual rainfall and
increasing rainfall intensity
• Shifting on-set of rainy season
• Change in frequency and magnitude
of extreme weather event
Who will be at risk?
Why and how?
What shall we do about it?
Example of projected climate change (2520-2549 VS 2570-2599 B.E.)
Source: Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University
Change in maximum temperature
Changing in annual rainfall

Climate Change and some major concerns
• Human settlement <<< higher frequency and magnitude of extreme
weather
• Agriculture
• Crop productivity <<< change in temperature / on-set of rainy
season / rainfall distribution pattern
• Soil suitability / water availability <<< longer & warmer
summertime
• Water resources <<< change in rainfall distribution / longer & warmer
summertime
• Tourism industry <<< change in seasonal pattern
• Etc.

Thailand
• Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda

Flood risk area in Bangkok, will be
higher exposed to future flood
Land use change in Bangkok will
make the city more sensitive to
future flood
Climate change adaptation and human settlement
Planning climate change adaptation – examples from
Thailand

Change in rainfall pattern will increase pressure on flood risk to Bangkok
Thailand

Structural design for flood
protection is required.
Non-structure such as
better city planning and
institutional arrangement
with the surrounding
province for flood
diversion.
Thailand

Example: Town planning in light of climate change
• Case study of the Town of Pun-pin, Suratthani Province, Thailand
Thailand

Land-use zoning and town planning
does not match with climate threat,
thus put large number of population
exposed to flood risk.
In order to cope with more serious
flood in the future, dual town
center concept is proposed for
development plan.

Dual-center town – Alternate development
pathway to increase resilience to flood
Coupled with improved
infrastructure / building design
Thailand

• Rearrange land-use zoning – more resilience to flood
Thailand

Low income community is typically high vulnerable to extreme weather event
• Located in risk prone area – high exposure to flood
• Poorly built and improper design – high sensitive to flood
• Limited resource for improvement/repair – Low coping capacity
Household and community – Adaptation through creative architectural design
• Eco-robust design
• Eco-repairable design
• Eco-adjustable design
Examples of typical low income household
Thailand

Effect of flood on
functions of various low
income household
designs
Higher frequency and magnitude of flood in the future drives needs for
these low income households to adapt
Thailand

Adaptation through creative architectural design
Design that allows for
disassemble of doors and
windows, and with
proper furniture,
resident can live through
the flood
Thailand

Adaptive design allows
residents to live through
the flood period
Thailand

Adaptive design allows residents to
live through the flood period
Thailand

Climate change adaptation and agriculture
Key concerns
• Shift and change in seasonal pattern >>> crop productivity
น้อยกว่า 40
40 – 80
80 – 120
120 – 160
160 – 200
ผลผลิตเทียบ
กับปีฐาน (%)
Rain-fed rice
Effect of future climate on future crop productivity (projection by mid 21st century)
Cassava
ผลผลิตเทียบกับปี
ฐาน (%)
น้อยกว่า 40
40 – 80
80 – 120
120 – 160
160 – 200
Sugar cane
ผลผลิตอ้อย (ตัน/ไร่)
น้อยกว่า 3.5
3.5 – 6.5
6.5 – 9.5
9.5 – 12.5
12.5 – 15.5
มากกว่า 15.5
Thailand

Key concerns
• Higher frequency and magnitude of extreme weather >>> crop
damage
• Indirect impact of climate change on production resources
• Higher rainfall intensity and soil erosion
• Longer and warmer summer >>> higher demand of water
• Longer and warmer summer >>> change in underground water
table also causes saline soil in some areas
Thailand

Adaptation direction
• Transform production system >>> zoning
• Improve technology for agriculture >>> improved cultivar
• Improve agriculture support infrastructure >>> water harvesting
• Risk management mechanism >>> crop insurance / future market
Thailand

Thailand
• Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda

• Misconception / misunderstanding on climate change and climate
change adaptation >>> climate change as abstract condition
• Limited research and researcher in this topic, especially multi-
discipline research >>> sector-based study only
• Climate Change Adaptation study is framed around conventional
concept of IVA and focuses on predict-then-act approach >>>
dilemma about accuracy of the future
• Social dynamic is always be neglected >>> unrealistic adaptation that
only addresses current social context
Climate change adaptation study: Gaps
Very little has been done, always led by science-based study
Climate change adaptation: Future research agenda

Climate change adaptation study: New research agendas
• Climate change adaptation for large landform: Multiple sectors / multiple
scales / multiple threats assessment

Water
Agri
system
Environ
ment
Human
settlement
Climate
Land use /
land cover
• Production
resources
(water – soil)
• Agri system
pattern &
productivity
Water
availability
&
allocation
• City expansion,
town planning &
infrastructure
• Flood & water
shortage
• Change in watershed
run-off/ water
balance – water
deficit
• Change in reservoir
reserve
NOW FUTURE
• Change in saline soil
and underground
water
• Risk of agri. System
in different agro-eco
zones
• Change in land use
pattern
• Risk of community /
city to climate &
non-climate stresses
and coping capacity
• Institutional gaps in
risk management
Risk and vulnerability:
What & Who – how &
why – how much?
Challenge ahead: Adaptation for large landform - a trans-disciplinary research
Adaptation planning: Visioning
process – disruptive thinking –
Robust decision making

Climate change adaptation study: New research agendas
Risk and vulnerability
assessment
 Defining social context that determine risk/vulnerability profile
 Visioning of future socio-economic structure scenario under
current development strategy and plan
 Social dynamic and evolving risk profile and future climate concern
 Loss and damage assessment framework
Risk communication  Communicating scientific information for local planning
 Science-policy dialogue process
Planning adaptation under
uncertainties
 Robust decision making
Justifying adaptation  Economic analysis of uncertainty situation
Mainstreaming climate
change adaptation
 Policy gap analysis
 Policy planning process - long-term strategic planning at various
levels of policy planning
Mobilizing climate change
adaptation
 Institutional gap assessment
 Cross-ministry planning
Evaluating adaptation  Effectiveness of adaptation strategy and plan / Monitoring &
Evaluation framework

Thank You
Suppakorn Chinvanno
SEA START RC, Chulalongkoen University
suppakorn@start.or.th
www.thailandadaptation.net

Climate Change Adaptation in Thailand

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