BlackSwanTradingTM 22dec15

“
Page 1 of 10 December 2015 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM
Update
22 December 2015
Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three
continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1
.
Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses
value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end
of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better
than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.
The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve
suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got
pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early avuncular advice from Fed. Now finally a
tentative rate rise feels out if recovery is real in the real economy.
Two and a half years late Uncle Draghi is now leading that charge to easing. Xi and Putin are
pondering how they will rule the mountains, valleys, even the Black and China Seas. Saud and
Khomeini divide the sands, as 2/3rds of mankind bow their heads to Abraham’s God. Greek flirts
with the dancing Bear while Merkel gets brushed aside as the Euro banks ease the pains. Christine
Lagarde has had a moral conversion and presses for some jubilee.
On years of debate the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and
declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval era practice of
retaining more than 1/7th
reserve2
for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers. History
proves that high ratio worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity. Meanwhile our real economy is
hard at its work to absorb imprudences, exceed population growth and save for a hopeful return.
The market mavens are always, ‘surprised’ again, it is their stock response. Consumers were
demanding, firms were not reversing their balance sheet cash loads. Firms that have not found their
way to innovate, have chosen to aggregate. At high cash and low rates many have chosen to buy-
back stock, as confirmed in scooping their stock-options their moral hazard gets rewarded, again.
The paid by the word business model pundits wrote lots, like arm-chair quarterbacks. The gossips
never knew and never do. We have a guidepost, Risk Price (SF), we know where we are and, when
and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods from then current identified
monthly crop of new “likeables” we partitioned from NYSE the Solo50KTM
portfolio for a select
group of self-employed entrepreneurs. Solo-50K portfolio results from US tax law amendments3
to
encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay is high.
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

“
Update
22 December 2015
Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers two years ago.
We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our
portfolio we called the Solo50KTM
we had prior devised to help self employed heroines in our
circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM
or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini,
perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM
counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.4
Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15
@RealMilaKunis
Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR
CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks
Note Solo50KTM
had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as
BSTTM
for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but
allocated BSTTM
it has posted 66.93% gain since, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding our
stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months, to June 2015..
We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of
collaring options as we prefer)5
BSTTM
as SOLO50K Solo50KTM
had made a nice 103.58% in 30
months. That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.
But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM
. The original Solo50KTM
had been sent prior to the
attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further
18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish
they had known sooner of our work based in new theory of the firm that proves in real markets.
Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966
03dec2012. That rate is not likely to be repeated even if Draghi uses QE. Conventional bleating of
the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame, to make money, for you.
With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.
What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global
reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for
unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.
Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to
exploit small investor savings for their taking fees. They are not changing
their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the “regular courses”
required by a self-regulated industry driven only their creative sales fiction.
Seemingly, certification requires intensive study in the key tools of
Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification and Derogation.
Humm, that sounds familiar.
“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.
“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to

“
Update
22 December 2015
begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and
Derision.”
The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as
proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite
on DJI6
. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener7
. Our work stands on giants, insights
of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.
That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB8
can afford to ignore as
politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up donations in their proven failures.
Donations to their failure have already doubled since I was legally required to start paying 45 years
ago. Wall Street9
does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough10
?
Convention does not comprehend our “likeables” behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver11
. But,
they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum12
they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.
On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. The managers of
pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not
know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their
salaries, just not yours. Quantitative Eating ‘treacle-down’ just capitalized sticky fingers gaming
US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.
Our public portfolios are proof, you can.. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting
small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM
allows you invest in your children’s education,
TaxCharityTM
allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can.
Our public portfolios do better because we can with our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited
investors to advance what we have proven. We show proof in our methods, in real time portfolios.
BlackSwanTradingTM
is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in
01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 30.7 months. These many months market prices had to
give-up the bloat of QE. but risk averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are coming back.
Portfolios Update List – 22 November 2015
BlackSwanTradingTM
(Solo 50K on NYSE)
just the equities of "likeables" Firms
Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.
Assurant Inc. ($topLoss 10oct14) 80.48 AIZ:US 61 77.3
Avery Dennison Corp. ( 63.07 AVY:US 47 60.9
Boston Scientific Corp. 18.49 BSX:US 13 17.7
Comerica Inc. 41.27 CMA:US 43 39.6
Dow Chemical Co. 51.50 DOW:US 44 49.2
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 32.29 GT:US 24 31.0
Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T) 10.12 HCBK:US 9

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Update
22 December 2015
Linear Technology Corp . 43.13 LLTC 42 41.6
Lincoln National Corp. 49.80 LNC:US 48 47.8
Nabors Industries Ltd. 8.23 NBR:US 19 7.4
New York Times Company 13.69 NYT 12 13.3
NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX 27
Oracle Corp. 36.59 ORCL:US 37 35.3
Sysco Corp, 41.27 SYY:US 32 40.4
Teco Energy Inc 26.52 TE:US 18 25.3
Terex Corp 19.08 TEX:US 36 17.6
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 53.59 TSN:US 35 51.7
Unum Group 32.67 UNM:US 22 31.7
Waste Management Inc. 53.20 WM:US 40 51.9
(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)
BlackSwanSleepingTM
Portfolio Value
(incl. Dividends) 22 September 2015 / 30 November 2012
72853.50 / 43465.00 Gain 35.7
months
62.21%
Current Cash
(ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13 HCBK takeniver)
Dividends earned
5541.00
3794.50
Current Cash 9335.50 IRR pa 17.14%
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational
market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q3-2015. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without
regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended
but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.
We have progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week rolling
range13
of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at the triggered
stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising Capital Safety. There are benefits to doing that.
If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you
gained a tidy 62.21% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 36.7 months, a net 17.14% IRR p.a. gain,
you got $9,335.50 cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth, standing-up.
In the long haul all but 2 of these 19 ‘likeables’rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant
positive markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work
in a mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over the past year, on newspeak
unrelated to the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never know which way to go.
Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis
gained 37% more at the end of 35.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their
personal savings portfolio every 3 months only and still over that interval including the last rough 6 quarters
they obtained 91.93% achieving 24.50% IRR. That is very likeable.

“
Update
22 December 2015
That demonstrated yield of 24.50% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk
averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM
. Investors need to know Risk Price.
Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 31mar15 *100 shares each
Analog Devices Inc. ($63.2 stopLoss 08jul15) ADI:US 47 53.8
Barnes Group Inc. ($38.8 stopLoss 21aug15) B:US 25 34.4
Broadcom Corp. ($49.9 stopLoss 06oct15) BRCM 41 55.1
Electronic Arts Inc. ($67.7 stopLoss 09dec15) 67.70 EA 40 63.6
Airbus Group NV ORD ($65 stopLoss 21aug15) EADSF:US 58 68.4
NiSource Inc. (2545: 1000 Split 02jul15 $43.9 stoplosss 21aug15) NI 31 18.5
Norwegian Cruise LH Ltd. ($51.3 stopLoss 20apr15) NCLH 37 56.2
Buy-ins 15jun15 *100 shares each
Cavium Inc. ($66.1 stopLoss 21aug15) CAVM:US 40 62.3
Crown Castle Intl Corp. ($81.7 stopLoss 24aug15) CCI:US 81 85.3
Celgene Corp. ($112.6 stopLoss 24aug15) CELG:US 83 105.0
Cisco Systems Inc. ($27.5 stopLoss 10jul15) CSCO:US 23 25.9
First Horizon Natl Corp. ($13.4 stopLoss 24aug15) FHN:US 10 13.9
Buy-ins 22sep15 *100 shares each
Avery Dennison Corp. ($63.3 stopLoss 09dec15) 63.30 AVY:US 47 61.1
BB&T Corp. ($37.7 stopLoss 09dec15) 37.70 BBT 38 36.8
Cavium Inc. ($59.0 stopLoss 28sep15) CAVM:US 40 62.3
Cisco Systems Inc. ($28.0 stopLoss 10nov15) CSCO:US 23 25.9
Fidelity Nat’l Inform’n Serv. ($67.7 stopLoss 03nov15) FIS:US 50 58.4
Medtronic Inc 76.93 MDT:US 50 73.9
Altria Group Inc. ($59.6 stopLoss 03nov15) MO:US 34 56.0
Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($41.7 stopLoss 29sep15) PF:US 28 41.1
Starz Series A ($36.3 stopLoss 29sep15) STRZA 25 31.2
Total System Services Inc. ($52.1 stopLoss 18dec15) 52.10 TSS:US 30 47.9
Valero Energy Corp. ($58.9 stopLoss 24sep15) VLO:US 36 67.5
Verisk Analytics Inc. ($77.2 stopLoss 28oct15) VRSK 60 73.6
Buy-ins 22oct15 *100 shares each
Archer Daniels Midland Co. ($44.8 stopLoss 03nov15) ADM:US 41 34.0
Autodesk Inc 60.95 ADSK:US 45 58.2
Big Lots Inc. ($45.4 stopLoss 02nov15) BIG:US 38 37.9
Hartford Financial Srvcs. ($46.6 stopLoss 27oct15) HIG:US 24 41.7
Paychex Inc. ($53.1 StopLoss 08dec15) 53.10 PAYX:US 38 51.5
Buy-ins 22nov15 *100 shares each

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Update
22 December 2015
Big Lots Inc, ($42.8 stopLoss 08dec15) 42.80 BIG:US 38 41.3
Comerica Inc. ($44.6 $topLoss 07dec15) 44.60 CMA:US 43 42.8
Dow Chemical Co. ($50.9 $topLoss 08dec15) 50.90 DOW:US 44 48.6
Hartford Financial Serv. ($44.4 $topLoss 11dec15) 44.40 HIG:US 24 41.7
Lincoln National Corp. ($53.2 $topLoss 08dec15) 53.20 LNC:US 48 47.8
TE Connectivity Limited 64.90 TEL:US 35 62.1
Waste Management Inc, ($52.8 $topLoss 03dec15) 52.80 WM:US 40 51.9
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 Decmber 2015 / 30 November 2012
81030.60 / 43465.00 Gain 36.7
months
86.43%
Current Cash (after 22oct2015 buy) 228.00 IRR pa 22.59%
Net Cash (StopLoss AVY BBT BIG CMA HIG LNC PAYX
TEL TSS) *100 shares 62800.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 63028.00
Buy-ins 22dec15 *100 shares each
Analog Devices Inc 56.01 ADI:US 47 53.8
AFLAC Inc 59.28 AFL:US 58 57.5
Avery Dennison Corp 63.07 AVY:US 47 60.9
BB&T Corp 37.64 BBT 38 36.7
Big Lots Inc 39.26 BIG:US 38 37.9
Ball Corp 70.94 BLL:US 53 68.5
Comerica Inc 41.27 CMA:US 43 39.6
Hartford Financial Services 43.26 HIG:US 24 41.7
Lincoln National Corp 49.80 LNC:US 48 47.8
Paychex Inc. 52.71 PAYX:US 38 51.1
TE Connectivity Limited 64.39 TEL:US 35 62.1
Total System Services Inc 50.70 TSS:US 30 47.9
Net Cash Forward 22nov15 *100 shares 195.00
Dividends earned 4264.60
Total Cash Available 4459.10
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 Decmber 2015 / 30 November 2012
81030.60 / 43465.00 Gain 36.7
months
86.43%
IRR pa 22.59%
Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat has made unusual down-side
volatility in all markets this past year. To that adjustment now older Greece and newer China
issues added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered again in December, and
as in September and November. We can buy back “likeables” at lower prices and recover.

“
Update
22 December 2015
Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value
investing14
. Our tighter $toploss values reduce risk of loss. All of the stocks in our public
portfolios15
simply rebounded. Most, can still be bought back for less than they stopped out weeks
ago even as those regained 20% faster than the market. Take the bonus and buy those back.
Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, instead of working
at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but it
requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.
Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is not time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values to
recover, but again we must rebuild for gain hopeful calmer markets will soon return. Price has no
mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.
Most of America is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of
infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the
political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other
peoples abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.
The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in
hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in
valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. Austerity the FSB sees as
necessary in restraint of retail bank reserves limits imprudence by moral hazard of bankers but
reduces the amount of available ‘credit float’ from real economy enterprises creating worth and
wealth in their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish
or save in ‘likeable’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Automatic Data Processing Inc. 84.86 ADP:US 77 81.5
Big Lots Inc 39.26 BIG:US 38 37.9
Conagra Foods Inc 41.43 CAG:US 29 40.0
Diamond Foods Inc 39.44 DMND 21 37.3
NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 58.01 NDAQ 35 56.0
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00
See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 22sep15 *100 shares each
AbbVie Inc. ($53.5 stopLoss 28sep15) ABBV 48 54.4
AmerisourceBergen Corp. ($98.8 stopLoss 28sep15) ABC:US 63 99.0
Abbott Labs. ($39.4 stopLoss 28sep15) ABT:US 30 42.9
Analog Devices Inc. ($59.6 stopLoss 29oct15) ADI:US 47 53.8

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Update
22 December 2015
Aircastle Ltd. ($20.4 stopLoss 04nov15) AYR:US 14 20.2
Check Point Soft. Tech.Ltd. ($79.2 stoploss 26oct15) CHKP:US 62 79.8
Dollar General Corp. ($67.1 stopLoss 07oct15) DG:US 57 69.2
E Trade Financial Corp. 29.22 ETFC:US 18 27.9
General Mills Inc. ($26.9 stopLoss 03nov15) GIS 50 56.9
Givaudan SA ADR 36.01 GVDNY:US 27 36.0
Lions Gate Ent’nt Corp. ($36.7 stopLoss 16nov15) LGF:US 31 31.2
Newell Rubbermaid Inc 42.90 NWL:US 31 43.1
Sealed Air Corp. ($45.9 stopLoss 28sep15) SEE:US 30 40.8
Buy-ins 22oct15 *100 shares each
Ameren Corp. ($44 stopLoss 29oct15) AEE:US 38 41.9
Delta Air Lines Inc. ($47.8 stopLoss 16nov15) DAL 40 49.4
CarMax Inc. ($54.2 stopLoss 16nov15) KMX:US 47 49.3
Scana Corp. ($58.2 StopLoss 03dec15) 58.20 SCG:US 45 58.3
Total System Services Inc. ($52.1 stopLoss 18dec15) 52.10 TSS:US 30 47.9
Texas Instruments Inc. ($56.1 stopLoss 11dec15) 55.61 TXN:US 36 53.7
Buy-ins 22nov15 *100 shares each
Broadcom Corp. 57.42 BRCM 41 55.1
Campbell Soup 53.15 CPB 37 51.8
Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc 55.28 FBHS:US 30 53.3
General Mills Inc 58.41 GIS 50 56.9
Lions Gate Entertmnt Corp. ($33.4 stopLoss 03dec15) 33.40 LGF:US 31 31.2
Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($45.6 stopLoss 06dec15) 45.60 LULU 45 49.4
Microchip Technology Inc. ($45.5 stopLoss 09dec15) 45.50 MCHP:s&p 38 45.3
Mondelez International Incorporated 44.71 MDLZ:US 30 42.9
PerkinElmer Inc. ($50.8 stopLoss 03dec15) 50.80 PKI:US 42 50.8
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 December 2015 (incl. dividends and cash) / 15 September
2013
72921.70 / 50912.00 Gain 27.3
months
43.21%
Current 2013 Tax Shelter Cash (after 22se[15 buy) 51.00 IRR pa 17.10%
Net Cash (StopLoss LGF LULU MCHP NWL PKI SCG TSS
TXN) *100 shares 38460.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 38511.00
Buy-ins 22dec15 *100 shares each
Altera Corp. 53.93 ALTR 32 51.2
Conagra Foods Inc 41.43 CAG:US 29 40.0
Delta Air Lines Inc 51.75 DAL 40 49.4
Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation 32.79 LGF:US 31 31.2
Principal Financial Group Inc 44.81 PFG:US 46 43.0
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 53.59 TSN:US 35 51.7
Total System Services Inc 50.70 TSS:US 30 47.9
Texas Instruments Inc. 55.61 TXN:US 36 53.7

“
Update
22 December 2015
Net Cash Forward 22oct15 *100 shares 50.00
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 December 2015 (incl. dividends and cash) / 15 September
2013
72921.70 / 50912.00 Gain 27.3
months
43.21%
IRR pa 17.10%
Current Cash
Dividends earned
50.00
1039.65
Total Cash Available 1089.65
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred
as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs were recorded in
markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio
from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not
pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, most rebounded above their Risk Price
and $topLoss, some are clearly ‘laggards’needing to be shunned. However one sees clear example of our
‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets with Solo50K BSTTM
continued gaining. Now as
market behaviours shift sharply up and down risk aversion pays with less risk and better gains.
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,
not adding value. They cannot tell of a fair price or value. A tautology is just repetition until it
appears to be logical. Lies are expedient and told often enough can even become politically correct.
Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and
Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk
and AlphaSmartTM
high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.
Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our
method is proven. Because we can, you can16
.
In our Modal Geometry17
theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is
owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).

“
Update
22 December 2015
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers
relation to balance sheets as business process18
adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,
and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM
portfolios performances.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”
tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our
TaxCharityTM
and BookBuilderTM
portfolios continued gain.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
1
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
2
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-
from.html
3
http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm
4
http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/
5
http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/
6
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji
7
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12
8
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/
9
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/
10
http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/
11
https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi
12
http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/
13
http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/
14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
15
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
16
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
17
“The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006, unpublished but available
from the author.
18
http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

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