McKinsey Survey Finds Lower Income Indians Less Optimistic About Economic Recovery in 2020
1. McKinsey & Company 1
About 70 percent of respondents are optimistic about recovering
income and savings by Diwali.1
Lower-income population of respondents appears to be less optimistic about economic recovery in 2020
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 1,519, sampled to consuming class
1. An Indian festival celebrated nationally, this year in November.
2. Income segmentation (by monthly household income before taxes): Lower income segment - <Rs. 50,000; Middle income segment - Between INR 50,000 and INR 1,00,000; Upper middle income segment - Between INR 1,00,000 and INR
1,50,000; Upper income segment - More than INR 1,50,000
30%
13%
38%
32%
35%
36%
30%
38%
38%
39%
17%
32%
12%
13%
15%
7%
13%
5%
5%
3%
5%
8%
4%
6%
3%
4%
4%
3%
6%
5%
Lower
Total
Middle
Upper middle
Higher
By the time Diwali comes around, I will likely have recovered any income or savings that I lost
during the lockdown
Strongly agree Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Disagree Strongly disagree
71%
55%
78%
72%
77%
% of respondents2 % Strongly
agree/ Agree
2. McKinsey & Company 2
About 70 percent of respondents say they are likely to spend less on
discretionary spend categories and gifts during Diwali.
34%
5%
4%
33%
4%
5%19%
I will probably put off some things for the
home that I planned on buying during Diwali
4%
6%16%36%33%
I will probably spend less on gifts during
Diwali this year
Strongly agree Somewhat agreeAgree Somewhat disagree Disagree Strongly disagree
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 1,519, sampled to consuming class
3. McKinsey & Company 3
This document
reflects survey
results in the India
market for two
categories – mobile
phones and large
domestic appliances.
McKinsey & Company 33
Large Domestic
Appliances
.
Mobile Phones
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Just 9 percent of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent
state that they will indefinitely postpone or forego a phone purchase.
100
13 30
9
9
10
22 7
All respondents
Still plan to buy this year2,3
Bought in past 3 months1,3
Will forego purchase2
38
53
Spent/intend to spend less than planned
Spent/intend to spend more than planned
Spent/intend to spend equal to planned
Roughly 1 in 4 among both ‘buyers’ and ‘planners’ have traded down / intend to trade down
Current declared purchase behaviour/intent for mobile
phones,1,2,3 % of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intentCategory highlights
91%
of respondents with pre-COVID-19
purchase intent either purchased a
phone in the last 3 months or plan
to purchase later this year
75%
of respondents who purchased a
phone (i.e., “buyers”) spent the
same as or more than they had
planned originally
22%
of respondents planning to buy
mobile phones later this year (i.e.,
“planners”) expect to spend less
than originally planned
1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 6-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will
not buy, I’m not sure I want this anymore)
3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand
instead)
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 664 for mobile phones deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
5. McKinsey & Company 5
Uncertainty about the outbreak’s impact on income is the most
commonly cited reason for trading down or foregoing a purchase.
Reason cited for planning to spend less or cancelling purchase of mobile phones,1
% of respondents
Reprioritized spending and social guilt are also cited as factors for trading down in mobile-phone purchases
1. Q: Which statement best describes the reason for spending less on your future mobile phone?
Q: You mentioned you have dropped the plan of purchasing the mobile phone, Which statement best describes the reason for it?
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 664 for mobile phones deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
50%
30%
20%
I wanted to save money because I’m
worried about the impact of COVID-19
on my income
I had to spend money on other things
instead
I felt guilty to spend a lot given the
serious impact of COVID-19 on society
41%
17%
7%
7%
6%
I wanted to save money because I’m
worried about the impact of COVID-19
on my income
I do not want to leave my house, and I
don’t trust delivery for an expensive
product like a cellphone
I had to spend money on other things
instead
I could not find the model I wanted, either
in physical stores or online
I do not want to leave my house, and it is
very difficult to find delivery options for
orders online
Respondents who plan to buy this year Respondents who expect to cancel or indefinitely
postpone purchase
6. McKinsey & Company 6
Respondents who say they have spent less than planned or plan
to do so show the inclination to stay with their preferred brand.
21% 24%
22% 17%
25% 25%
32% 34%
Will buy used instead
Same brand, cheaper
model
Respondents who
have purchased mobile
phone in past 3 months1
Same brand, same model
with a discount or promo
Respondents who
intend to purchase
within the year2
Cheaper brand
~59%
of respondents intend to
stick to the same brand
1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought a cellphone, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 24% of those who purchased a mobile phone in the last 3 months)
2. Q: You answered previously that you still intend to buy a cellphone, but will spend less. Which statement best describes your future purchase? (Represents 22% of those who plan to purchase a mobile phone within the year)
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 664 for mobile phones deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
Intention for consumers who have traded down or plan to trade down their purchase,1,2
% of respondents
7. McKinsey & Company 7
While responses suggest continued preference for online channels,
certain physical channels could see post-COVID-19 increases in traffic.
Expected change in consumer preference of channel,1
% of respondents
Net increase in
channel preference3
Responses suggest that
e-commerce websites
and official brand
websites likely to gain
~35%
more purchase traffic in
post COVID-19 scenario
+45%
+28%
+1%
+1%
+46%
65%
59%
44%
44%
65%
55%
23%
16%
13%
13%
16%
12%
13%
18%
30%
40%
40%
17%
30%
62%
1%
1%
3%
2%
3%
2%
Other online platforms
10%
Brand official website
Leading e-commerce platforms
Online websites of multi-brand
retailers
Exclusive brand store
Physical store of multi-brand
retailers
Local mobile store outlet
No change in using this channel
Will use this channel more Will use this channel less
Will discontinue using this channel
+22%
-41%
~34%
of net increase in
preference of
respondents for branded
physical stores
Online websitePhysical store
Exclusive and multi-brand stores could see traffic increase in the pre- and post-purchase journey
1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for cellphones will change in the following channels after COVID-19 compared to before?
2. Q: Which channel did you use to buy your existing phone?
3. Net increase calculated as p.p. difference between 'will use this channel more' and 'will use this channel less'
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 664 for mobile phones deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
8. McKinsey & Company 8
‘Touch and feel’ experience as well as safety concerns are the
most commonly cited barriers of moving to online channels.
47%
34%
24%
20%
18%
18%
18%
15%
14%
12%
I like seeing and testing the phone first before buying
Concern about safety of delivery
Unclear return policy
Limited technical support
Inconvenient return process
Long delivery times
Data safety concerns in website/mobile app
Limited product personalization
Limited payment options
Uncertainty about delivery times and process
28%
26%
23%
22%
20%
19%
16%
16%
15%
14%
Convenient return process
Free delivery
Better price
Fast delivery
Multiple payment options
Promotion/ Discount
Access to all the product information I needed
Reliable customer service
Convenience
Easy to use shopping interface
Barriers to buying online for respondents
who prefer physical stores,2
% of respondents
Reasons for buying online for respondents
who prefer online,1
% of respondents
1. Q: What are the top 3 reasons driving you to buy your future cellphone in ONLINE channels?
2. Q: What are the top 3 factors preventing you from buying your future cellphone ONLINE?
Better price is the most cited factor for buying online among those who prefer online channels
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 664 for mobile phones deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
9. McKinsey & Company 9
This document
reflects survey
results in the India
market for two
categories – mobile
phones and large
domestic appliances.
McKinsey & Company 99
Large Domestic
Appliances
.
Mobile Phones Large Domestic
Appliances
.
Mobile Phones
10. McKinsey & Company 10
100%
11% 21%
12%
17%
7%
24% 8%
Bought in past 3 months1, 3
All respondents
Still plan to buy this year2, 3
Will forego purchase
39%
44%
17%
Spent/intended to spend less than planned
Spent/intended to spend equal to planned
Spent/intended to spend more than planned
Current declared purchase behavior/intent for large domestic
appliances1
% of respondents with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent
Category highlights
83%
of respondents either purchased large
domestic appliances in the past 3 months
or plan to purchase later this year
1/4
of respondents who purchased or plan
to purchase large appliances say they
have spent less or plan to spend less
than originally planned
35%
of purchases in the past 3 months appear
to have been unplanned, with higher
percentages for refrigerators and ovens
1. Q: Of the items you were thinking of buying, which ones did you buy in the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which statement best describes your plan of the items you were planning to buy but haven’t yet? (Will buy in next 3 months/ Will buy in next 6-8 months/ Postponed indefinitely/ Will not buy it anymore even though I still want it/ Will
not buy, I’m not sure I want this anymore)
3. Q: Which statement best describes your purchase/ planned purchase? (Bought the same item/ brand as planned/ Spent less or bought a cheaper item/ brand instead/ Spent more than planned or bought a more expensive item/ brand
instead)
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
17 percent of customers with pre-COVID-19 purchase intent say
they plan to completely forego large appliance purchases.
11. McKinsey & Company 11
Uncertainty of COVID-19’s impact on income is the most
commonly cited reason for spending less or foregoing purchases.
48%
20%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2%
I have other things on my mind and this is not a priority
I have less time to browse because of the crisis
I want to save money because I’m worried about the effect of
COVID-19 on my income
It does not feel right/ I felt guilty to spend given the serious
impact of COVID-19 on society
I lost interest in the items I originally planned to buy
My plans have changed (e.g., moving, renovating, or
building new house, etc.)
I do not want to leave my house, and it is very difficult
to find delivery options for orders online
I have to spend money on other things
Reason for planning to spend less or foregoing future purchase of large domestic appliances,1
% of respondents
1. Q: Which statement best describes the reason for spending less on your FUTURE appliances? Q: What made you decide not to buy large appliances anymore?
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
12. McKinsey & Company 12
Most respondents looking to spend less show preference towards
the same brands they intended to purchase pre-COVID-19 crisis.
30%
18%
12%
20%
21% 31%
37% 31%
Respondents who
have purchased large
appliances in past 3
months1
Will buy used instead of
new
Respondents who
intended to purchase
in next 3-6 months2
Same brand, same model
with a discount or
promotion
Same brand, cheaper
model
Cheaper brand
~62%
of planners say they are likely to stick to
the same brand as planned; equally split
between those looking for a discount or
promotion to buy the same model and
those planning to buy a cheaper model
Respondents who plan to
purchase in the months ahead are
less likely to look for refurbished
models than those who bought in
past 3 months
1. Q: You answered previously that you still bought large domestic appliances, but spent less than planned. Which statement best describes your purchase? (Represents 28% of those who bought large domestic appliances in the past 3 months)
2. Q: You answered previously that you still intend to buy large domestic appliances, but will spend less than planned. Which statement best describes your future purchase? (Represents 27% of those who plan to buy large domestic appliances
within the year)
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
Intention for consumers who have traded down or plan to trade down their
purchase,1,2 % of respondents
13. McKinsey & Company 13
Respondents expect to increasingly use their preferred e-commerce
platform more frequently in the future.
Online websitePhysical store
At the same time, respondents expect to visit brick and mortar stores more often than before the outbreak
Expected change in channel used for purchases following
COVID-19 outbreak,1 % of respondents
66%
52%
48%
44%
41%
31%
25%
16%
20%
19%
24%
16%
22%
21%
15%
21%
26%
25%
38%
41%
48%
7%
7%
8%
5%
5%
5%
Exclusive brand store
3%
Other e-commerce platforms
Multi-brand appliance store
E-commerce platform preferred
by respondents
Local store
Online website of multi-brand
appliance stores
Brand official websites
Will discontinue using this channel
Will use this channel more
No change in using this channel
Will use this channel less
Net increase in
channel
preference2
+49%
+25%
+16%
+11%
-3%
-16%
-28%
1. Q: How do you think your shopping preference for large domestic appliances will change in the following channels after COVID-19 compared to before?
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting % of using less and discontinue use from using more
3. Q: Where would you typically purchase large appliances?
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
Leading channels
pre-COVID-19
14. McKinsey & Company 14
Among those planning to buy appliances, trusted brand name was
the most-cited key buying factor.
Importance of key buying factors for those who are planning to buy within the year,1,2
% of respondents
32%
27%
27%
20%
20%
20%
16%
14%
13%
11%
Trusted brand
Product is in stock/ available
Electricity efficiency
Affordable price
Good value for money
Special features
Guarantee / warrantee program
Customer service
Reco from friends / family
Lifetime / Sturdiness / ability to last
+1%
+1%
0%
-5%
-3%
+3%
+4%
+2%
-5%
+2%
Difference from
pre-COVID-192
1. What are the top factors that you will prioritize in the appliances that you plan to buy?
2. What were the most important factor(s) that made you consider these brands before the outbreak? Difference is calculated by subtracting percentage of respondents selecting the factor for Jan purchase from percentage of
respondents selecting the factor for future purchase
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
15. McKinsey & Company 15
Free delivery is the factor respondents most often say will lead
them to buy online.
Lack of ‘touch and feel’ experience poses the biggest barrier to online shopping
54%
39%
20%
20%
18%
17%
13%
12%
11%
11%
Uncertainty about delivery times and process
I like seeing and testing them first before buying
Concern about safety of delivery
Inconvenient return process
Lack of informational content in the online shop
Limited product information on the sites
Limited technical support
Could not find anything I liked online
Shipping costs
Long delivery times
Barriers to buying online for respondents who prefer
physical stores2
% of respondents
Reasons for buying online for respondents
who prefer online1
% of respondents
23%
20%
20%
19%
19%
18%
17%
16%
16%
14%
Wide assortment of products
Free delivery
Live support on the site to answer my questions
Easy to use shopping interface
Convenience
Multiple payment options
Fast delivery
Promotion/ Discount
Better price
Prolonged payment options
1. Q: What are the main reasons why you will prefer to buy these large domestic appliances online?
2. Q: What are the main factors that prevent you from buying these large domestic appliances online instead?
Source: McKinsey COVID-19 mobile and online survey, 5/2 - 5/5/2020, N = 449 for large domestic appliances deep-dive, sampled to consuming class
16. McKinsey & Company 16
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