Investing in climate, investing in growth // World Energy Outlook – How can we meet climate, energy access and air quality goals? Timur Guel, Senior Energy Analyst, Energy Demand Outlook Division, International Energy Agency Energy is fundamental for the achievement of many of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Three of them are directly related to the production and use of energy: to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy services by 2030 (SDG 7); to substantially reduce the air pollution which causes deaths and illness (SDG 3.9); and to take effective action to combat climate change (SDG 13). The IEA’s new Sustainable Development Scenario, published for the first time in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2017, integrates all these goals at the same time with the objective to set out an energy sector pathway that leads to a cleaner and more inclusive energy future. This session will discuss some of the scenario’s main findings, and what they imply for the energy sector and for energy policymakers.

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The Sustainable Development Scenario
Dr. Timur Gül, IEA
OECD, 8 February 2018

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Energy underpins the UN Sustainable Development Agenda

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…and is particularly crucial for SDGs 3, 7 and 13
SDG 3.9: Substantially reduce the number of deaths and
illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and
soil pollution and contamination
SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable
and modern energy for all
SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate
change and its impacts

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CO2 emissions growth slows
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario
Emissions growth slows as China restructures its economic growth model and the use of
low-carbon technologies, in particular solar PV and wind, rises
10
20
30
40
Gt
Coal Oil Gas
1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040

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Air quality – how good is good enough?
Emissions of the main air pollutants fall in many regions, but ageing populations and
urbanisation increase related health impacts
New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040
Millionpeople
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
European Union
China
India
Southeast Asia
Rest of world
Premature deaths from
outdoor air pollution
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
European
Union
China India Southeast
Asia
SO2 NOX PM2.5
Change in air pollutant emissions
Source: WEO analysis, IIASA

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Million
people
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Electricity access makes progress in all regions,
but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind
Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030,
but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India
Other Asia
2020 2025 2030
India
Other Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Million
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India
Other Asia
2020 2025 2030
Population without electricity access

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A new strategy for energy & sustainable development
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions in line with the objectives of the
Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
Global CO2 emissions by scenario
10
20
30
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Gt

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Air quality is an energy issue
Concentration of fine particulate matter in China
Urbanisation & an ageing population increase vulnerability to health impacts in China,
but a clean energy transition cuts pollutant emissions considerably
Today
2040: New
Policies Scenario
2040: Sustainable
Development
Scenario
Source: WEO analysis, IIASA

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Achieving universal energy access is not in
conflict with climate goals
On-Grid
Mini-Grid
Off-Grid
Existing grid
 Grid extension for 150 million additional people,
with hydro accounting for the lion’s share
 Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the
remaining 450 million people in rural areas
 An additional $26 billion per year is needed in
electricity generation and grids
Policies of the Sustainable Development Scenario achieve universal energy access by 2030,
improving human health and supporting the achievement of climate change goals

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Rethinking the energy sector
580bcm
additional gas demand
2times
more efficient
than today
3250GW
global solar PV capacity
875million electric
vehicles
Simultaneously achieving the three targets of the Sustainable Development Scenario
requires a step change in the pace of delivering a clean energy transition
The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040

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iea.org/weo