2. CLIENT: INNOV-XXI
INNOV-XXI is a
portuguese company
working in the
development of Asterio,
a roadster, currently in
phase of prototype.
Representing INNOV-
XXI was Ricardo Baeta,
CEO, and his brother
Pedro Baeta.
www.asterioroadsters.com
www.innov-xxi.pt
4. Participants
André Marquet
Beta-I Associate
Cátia Cruz
Wouldo Steps Associate
João Pequenão
IT Consultant
João Vaz Passos
Wouldo Steps CEO
João Vieira
Mobility Consultant at TIS
Pedro Baeta
Partner at INNOV-XXI
Pedro Pinto
Service Marketing Manager at SEAT Portugal Futurist & Facilitator:
Ricardo Baeta Hugo Garcia
CEO INNOV-XXI
5. The output for the Workshop were
Strong Trends and 4 Scenarios
Kitt
Technologic scenario
Caos
Social-political environment in Caos
Utilitarian
Rational use of the car as a tool
Car-Toy
Emotional relation between driver and cars
6. Strong Trends
Electric and Hibrid technologies
Safety
Light Weight Vehicles
Eficiency
Experience & Fun
Usability
Multi-tasking behind the wheel
Smaller Engines
Renting & Sharing Services
Buy & go Sales Service
New Sales Channels
Agreements between different brands
7. Kitt
This Scenario is named after the vehicle in the popular 80’s TV-Show, because is technologically evolved and
newer cars drive by themselves.
This technology was pushed forward by electric engines, that drove technology to be more electronic and less
mechanic. It’s not possible to pop the hood, which makes no difference because no driver understands about
fixing anything inside the car.
On the other hand, every useful information appears in the dashboard or in the windshield by augmented
reality. Traffic signs also appear to the driver as well as GPS or driving recommendations.
The drive time becomes more useful, as the driver might be multitasking, reading the news or speaking on the
phone
The driver may choose to drive manualy or auto-pilot, that will be mostly used in high-ways. But even when
driving manualy, the vehicle may give security intervention, avoid breaking the law, or suport the driver as
he multi-tasks like speaking on the phone or reading the news.
Cars are bought over the internet, which led dealerships to close-up and the consumer knows nothing about
mechanics.
The car’s motherboard interacts with portable technology like smart-phones, opens the door when the owner is
near, scans his condition and alerts the nearest hospital in case of any health condition.
This vehicles come with a Panic Button, that shuts down every electronics, braking the car slowly to a full stop.
8. Chaos
Oil, Lithium and Biodiesel prices go extremely volatile, rocketing every
now and then.
Lobbyists pressure governments to support their type of energy with
laws, increasing the complexity of the market.
Taxes, Laws and Subsidies mount up bringing social unsatisfaction.
Drivers react by learning mechanics, adapting their cars to different
energy sources as prices fluctuations occur.
Automobile brands close worldwide, not being able to react to market
fluctuations. The existing ones try to join forces surviving trough
partnerships.
Car get smaller and smaller and pay-per-use systems become popular
9. Utilitarian
As the world Economy evolves, and the middle class grows, living mostly in big
cities, citizens feel a big need to have cars. However, resources costs
increase along with demand, which leads to a very racionalist aproach on
vehicles and resources.
Fewer brands as customization and personalization reduces, and mass
production is one way to cost reduction.
Smaller engines and hybrids with pull-cord become very popular for their
efficiency which becomes top priority. Also very small cars, with one or two
seats, the size of bikes become common.
Governments create a lot of obstacles and taxes, not only in highways, but
also in cities or even by mile.
Consumers know a lot about vehicles, as they read a lot on the internet before
purchasing or renting.
Dealerships become rare, but sharing and pay-per-use becomes common to
deal with high costs. Modular cars or build-yourself are also available in
the market as more affordable options.
10. Toy-Car
With a good development of public transports and urban mobility, the
personal car is no longer a need.
Drivers who buy cars, do it as a pleasure because they like to drive.
They know a lot about cars and mechanics, but not for need, just fun.
Cars are personalized, as the consumer takes part in the design and
the construction. The first test-drive is made in a simulator on a
game-console before ordering and assembling. After assembling the
test-drive is often performed in a racing track.
Most cars are light and agile with very high tork, and a down-force
aero-dynamic. But collectionism is popular with demand for replicas
of older models like the Delorean.
Partnerships between brands are common in order to answer the most
specific demand from clients, and usual dealers give space to multi-
brand dealers that act as consultants helping the costumer to design
his dream car.
11. How to use Scenarios
Scenarios are not predictions.
If our work was done properly, the automotive sector in 2020 should
be somewhere in the middle of this 4 scenarios, or a combination of
all of them.
Reading Scenarios never gives as much insight as participating in the
Workshop, but even so, these should help to perform strategy or
innovation in corporate activities related to this sector.
These 4 Scenarios also give insights between Causes and
Consequences, like how public transports, technology and resources
volatility affects the consumer, habits, services, brands, constructors,
technology and car Services.
It must be also taken in consideration that, although this particular study
was focusing worldwide, the automotive sector is clearly diferent
from continent to continent and country to country.
12. Process
Date: 5 March 2011
From 10h00 to 17h30
Nº of participants: 8
Workflow:
Game “Past and Future Events”
Presentations
Future-wheels – Mega-Trends
Strong-Trends Identification
STEP Trends
Weak Signals
Uncertainties and Wild Cars
Scenarios built by crossing uncertainties and Trends
Results Presentations
For more information on organizing a Futures Study or Workshop contact: h.f.garcia@gmail.com
