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Scenario planning sps webinar

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Presentation to Strategic Planning Society by Gill Ringland

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Scenario planning sps webinar

  1. 1. Scenario Planning Strategic Webinar Series 15 May 2013
  2. 2. Agenda • Opening remarks - Fiona Carter, Executive Officer SPS • Scenarios for India and China to 2015 - Gill Ringland, CEO SAMI Consulting • Q&A 2
  3. 3. The Strategic Planning Society SPS was formed in 1967 and is a global network dedicated to the development of strategic thinking, strategic management and strategic leadership. Our Members are individuals, corporate organizations and business schools. We are dedicated to supporting Members to develop their strategic management and leadership capabilities. Our Vision a dynamic, global strategic management community Our Mission improve the practice, development and recognition of strategic management 3
  4. 4. About the SPS Strategic Webinar series A series of Webinars launched in January 2013 for SPS Members worldwide. Topics chosen for their broad application and appeal to the Membership of SPS. To provide insight and practical recommendations for strategic managers and leaders. Future sessions are planned to address subject areas such as strategy and sustainability, strategy and organizational design and strategy implementation. Let us know if you would like to contribute to an SPS Webinar. 4
  5. 5. Scenario Planning • There is on-going turbulence of the world economy • Scenario planning is being increasingly used in the public, private and NGO sectors. • Asset managers are realising that 80% of their concern needs to be with the global business environment, and 20% with the specific investment – a reversal from the boom years to 2008. Our speaker will share a case study with you: • A set of scenarios for India and China to 2015, examining how they were generated, what the scenarios got right and what not, lessons learnt. 5
  6. 6. Our speaker Gill Ringland • CEO of SAMI Consulting. • Previously head of strategy at ICL now part of Fujitsu. • Currently working with the European Commission, Eurocontrol, the Technology Strategy Board and ACCA. • Scenario planning books, • Also Beyond Crisis ,co-authored with Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig, • In Safe Hands? on Financial Services to 2050 • Here be Dragons, Exploring how organisations can incorporate thinking about the future into their day to day planning and projects. 6
  7. 7. SAMI Robust decisions in uncertain times • Our offer – To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation – Consulting, backed up by executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times” • “You can never plan the future by the past” – Edmund Burke, 1729-1797 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
  8. 8. India and China to 2015 Robust decisions in uncertain times • Study commissioned by the City of London in 2006 • The City was concerned at the impact of India and China on London’s Financial Services – Were India and China the same or different? – Were India and China a threat or an opportunity? • 5,000 copies of the report were distributed • Report in pdf on the SAMI web site – www.samiconsulting.co.uk.under News & Publications. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8
  9. 9. Scenarios for India and China Robust decisions in uncertain times • Methodology – Worked with Oxford Analytica’s country experts to develop the scenarios – Held workshops in the City of London to explore implications for asset management, insurance and international banking – Published report in October 2006 • Will focus here on – What were the scenarios and what has happened since? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
  10. 10. Comparing China and India Robust decisions in uncertain times • It is a mistake to see them as homogeneous – there are many Chinas and Indias. • The dynamics of development apply to China or India as much as they do anywhere else. • China or India can be thought of as a producer, a political power or a marketplace, each raising distinct questions leading to distinct approaches • Our approach was - what are these countries going to be like as places to do business, in which to invest, with which to collaborate or compete? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
  11. 11. Comparing China and India Robust decisions in uncertain times 70 60 Attitudinal Distance 50 40 30 20 10 Australia Canada Market USA UK Industrial Germany France Japan Collective Spain Brazil China Korea Future-oriented Chile S Africa Peru Ecuador Developing Mld Inc Guatemala Mexico Pakistan Mixed views Thailand Turkey India Kenya Poor Indonesia Nigeria
  12. 12. Comparing China and India Robust decisions in uncertain times 20 Annual real GNP growth China 10 India 0 -10 Indexed GDP, 1960=100 (constant money) -20 Relative size in 2004 -30 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 China 2000 China India 1500 Middle income Lower middle income 1000 Lower middle income 500 Middle income India 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
  13. 13. The big questions for India Robust decisions in uncertain times • India is a very complex and consensus driven society • Would frustration about – China’s example – Loss of esteem in Asia – New generation with new views lead to further liberalisation of economic, regulatory and social controls? • How would the balance of power between a federal style of government with localism, and a more centralised system, play out? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13
  14. 14. Scenarios for India Robust decisions in uncertain times Federal style of governance Retreat to the Woods The Elephant Lumbers along Liberalisation is reversed Liberalisation accelerates 2006 The Elephant Breaks its Chains Centralised system of governance
  15. 15. What has happened in India? Robust decisions in uncertain times • India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world as a result of liberalization of the last decades, covering manufacturing, agriculture and financial services. • The balance of power between the central government and the states has shifted slightly towards central government as India moves to play a bigger part on the world stage viz-a-viz the UN, Pakistan, etc. For comparison purposes, the central government of India has more power than the US Federal Government. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15
  16. 16. Scenarios for India: Direction Robust decisions in uncertain times Federal style of governance Retreat to the Woods The Elephant Lumbers along Liberalisation is reversed Liberalisation accelerates 2006 The Elephant Breaks its Chains Centralised system of governance
  17. 17. The big questions for China Robust decisions in uncertain times • How long can China’s rapid economic growth persist? – Can China cope with the complexity it is creating? – What are the adaptation mechanisms? • How will China interact with the rest of the world? – Will she be seen as a source of economic wealth and growth? – And/or a threat on the world stage, a source of instability? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17
  18. 18. Scenarios for China Robust decisions in uncertain times 2006 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
  19. 19. What has happened in China Robust decisions in uncertain times • China’s economic growth has continued – No longer as connected to US trade after 2008: – focus on growing internal consumer markets – 7.7% growth annualised in last quarter • China has a foreign policy to protect its interests – investments in raw materials in Africa, Latin America, SE Asia, ex-USSR countries ,--– Seen as a source of cyber-crime – aggressive in South China Sea – Supports North Korea (shared road bridge) www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
  20. 20. Scenarios for China: Direction Robust decisions in uncertain times 2006 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
  21. 21. What can we learn from these? Robust decisions in uncertain times • Scenarios need to build on history but not be constrained by the past – Experts can find it difficult to recognise signs of change • Thinking about the trajectory – how the organisation might get from A to B is important for identifying early indicators that might show which scenario was emerging – Elephant Breaks its Chains – early indicator: Indian companies off-shoring to lower wage economies. – Lion leads the Dance – early indicator: gradual liberalisation of the renminbi $ exchange rate • The scenarios allowed for discussion of previously less explored future directions for China and India. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
  22. 22. Thank you! Robust decisions in uncertain times If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please ask – esami@samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our training courses (with the Horizon Scanning Centre of the Government Office for Science) contact training @samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind events, please ask, cobwebs@samiconsulting.co.uk. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22