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Early warning systems Somalia & Key Climate Risks

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Early warning systems Somalia & Key Climate Risks

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Early Warning Systems in Somalia & Key Climate Risks : 2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
and
Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi
16th - 18th September 2014

Early Warning Systems in Somalia & Key Climate Risks : 2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
and
Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi
16th - 18th September 2014

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Early warning systems Somalia & Key Climate Risks

  1. 1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network Early Warning Systems in Somalia & Key Climate Risks 2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014 and Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi 16th - 18th September 2014
  2. 2. Presentation Outline • Early warning systems in Somalia • Key climate risks faced in Somalia __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 1
  3. 3. Early Warning Systems in Somalia • Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security • Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs, researchers, humanitarian response planers, and journalists o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions • regarding likely events, their potential impact, and probable responses of __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 2 various actors o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario • Typically for six months
  4. 4. Early Warning Systems in Somalia Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s partners o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) • A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 3 Somalia o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) • an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on water and rainfall o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep) • A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs (World Vision, Oxfam, DRC, COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF) • Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce chronic vulnerability through early action
  5. 5. Early Warning Systems in Somalia National disaster management agencies o National Environment Research and Disaster Preparedness and Management Authority (NERAD) in Somaliland o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) in Puntland o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South- __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 4 Central Somalia
  6. 6. Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods 5 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  7. 7. Sources of Data and Tools : Remote Sensing 6 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK • Mapviewer (USGS) • RFE rainfall plots http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapv iewer/ CHIRPS – monthly: USGS/UCSB-CHG, InfraRed unbiased by climatology, added stations. 1981-present, 5Km, global 50N-50S, 5 days total.
  8. 8. Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET Data Portal 7 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  9. 9. Sources of Data and Tools : Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) 8 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  10. 10. Sources of Data and Tools : Regional and National Climate Partners 9 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  11. 11. Sources of Data and Tools : Market Information 10 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  12. 12. Sources of Data and Tools : Databases 11 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
  13. 13. 9 Steps of Scenario Development STEP 6: Develop response assumptions STEP 5: Describe impacts on HH food sources __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 12 STEP 1: Set scenario parameters STEP 2: Describe and classify current food security STEP 3: Develop key assumptions STEP 4: Describe impacts on HH income sources STEP 7: Describe and classify projected HH food security STEP 8: Describe and classify projected area food security STEP 9: Identify events which could change the scenario
  14. 14. Examples of Early Warning : Price Projections __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 13
  15. 15. Key Climate Risks __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 14 • Drought • Floods • Cyclones 2010/11 Severe drought analysis
  16. 16. Key Climate Risks: Drought __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 15 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Total Rainfall April 1 - June 30 (mm) Wajir District, Kenya Hiran, Somalia Middle Shabelle, Somalia Gedo, Somalia MEAN
  17. 17. Key Climate Risks: River Flooding __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 16 • The Shabelle River routinely breaks 12 points within 90 km – A distance between Jawhar and Balad twons
  18. 18. Key Climate Risks: Cyclones 2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in Puntland __________________________________________ Source: HADMA FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 17
  19. 19. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 18 (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Excess Deaths Early warning timeline Source: Checchi et al, 2013 Early Warning, Famine declarations, End of Famine
  20. 20. Early Warning Products __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 19

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