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Climate Change in the NENA and its Implications on Agriculture and Rangelands

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31 March - 4 April 2019. Cairo. Land and Water Days in the NENA Region 2019
1 April: Session: Monitoring and assessment of climate change in the NENA and understanding its impact on land and water resources, agriculture and ecosystems
Dr. Ajit Govind (see presentation) - ICARDA: Climate Change in the NENA and its implications on agriculture and rangelands.

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Climate Change in the NENA and its Implications on Agriculture and Rangelands

  1. 1. Climate Change in the NENA and its Implications on Agriculture and Rangelands Ajit Govind Climatologist, ICARDA 2nd NENA Land and Water Days, Cairo, 31 March - 4 April 2019 Contributors: Drs. J. Wery; S. Strohmeier; V. Nangia; A. Swalem; C. Biradar; M. Louhaichi U. Awan; A. Belgacem; R. Verma; S. Aggarwal; M. Baum;
  2. 2. Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) • Changes in climate patterns are having their most acute effect on people living in the world’s dry areas. • They are largely dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods.
  3. 3. Nature of Changing Climate in the NENA 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 250 450 650 850 1050 1250 1450 1650 Regional Average Annual Precipitation [mm yr-1] RegionalAverageAANT • Temperature is more dynamic than Precipitation under Climate Change. • Hot Spots of Temperature Increase: Turkish and Iranian highlands, Niger, Chad, South Egypt • Hot Spots of Ppt Decline: Highlands of Maghreb region (NW Africa)..Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia Trend of Mean Annual Temperature Trend of Annual Precipitation MAT change (2100-2000) Trend of Vegetation Dynamics
  4. 4. Multi-scale Factors Affecting Ag Productivity Plot Scale Global Scale Regional Scale Biotic Stress Pests Diseases Weeds Biogeochemical Macro-nutrients μ-nutients Irrigation water Q soil quality Soil Org matter Resilience Biogeophysical Light interception μ-climate Soil physics Turbulence Management Type of tillage Labour use Effi. Cultivar /variety Crop rotation Climate change MNCs Scientific Research Global trade/ WTO Geomorphology Market acess Govt. subsidies Geneflow
  5. 5. MRBFarmer Practice Agril Engineering Interventions for Enhanced WUE under CC ICARDA-led work has demonstrated that use of wide furrows has advantages over farmers’ practices in terms of: • 20% saving of irrigation water. • 38% increase in crop water productivity. • 640 kg/ha increase in wheat grain yield.
  6. 6. Management of Water and Salinity in the Nile Delta A cross-scale integrated analysis of efficiency and equity issues Marginal and Brackish Water Reuse under CC
  7. 7. Ultra-low energy drip irrigation systems for MENA countries Flow rate at valve sections ~ for both. Pressure settings at valve sections: • MIT side: 0.15-0.35 bar. • Traditional side: ~ 0.75 bar.
  8. 8. • Surface-groundwater modeling for sustainable resource management in the Nile Delta (ND) • Spatial mapping of water productivity in irrigated areas of ND. • Enhancing agricultural water productivity in the irrigated areas of Nile Delta through innovative science based solutions. • Operationalizing the flux tower in Sakha station. Conducting field experiments to estimate actual ET. • Groundwater monitoring in 20 locations Integrated surface-groundwater mapping and modeling for sustainable resource management in the Nile Delta ETa = kc . ETref
  9. 9. Breeding-based Crop Improvement for Climate Smart Ag • In several locations in MENA, ICARDA is characterizing accessions of Food legumes (chickpea, faba bean, and lentil) for heat, water and salt tolerance. • Characterizing accessions of Barley and Durum Wheat for heat, water and salt tolerance • Characterizing accessions of Forage Crops water and salt tolerance. • Scaling of new drought tolerant barley and legume varieties in various regions of MENA
  10. 10. 10 Vulnerability and Resilience of Rangelands in MENA under CC • The combined effects of climate change and animal pressure on rangelands of the WANA region may have significant adverse impacts on range species under high CO2 emissions scenarios. • Clearly, an adaptation strategy needs to be developed for the MENA region. It should target increasing the resilience of the most vulnerable species based on better control of grazing pressure, the selection of more drought tolerant taxa and the establishment of other mitigation measures, such as water harvesting techniques. Forage Cactus is promising in Rangelands of MENA
  11. 11. Use of downscaled Climate Data and RS for modeling water resources at watershed scales in the MENA Rangelands Oum Er Rbia River Basin, Morocco Zarqa River Basin, Jordan
  12. 12. 12The DryArc Initiative A Global Interface DryArc: An ICARDA Interface to address Complexities of the Drylands The DryArc Interface: a Combination of Tools for * Benchmarking, * Integrated Assessment * Scaling of Innovations
  13. 13. • Need a centrally-coordinated, multi-disciplinary, multi- locational , multi-scale, observational strategy having a standardized-protocol. • Enrich a database on meteorological, hydrological, agronomic, livestock, edaphic, socioeconomic parameters in different ecosystems in the MENA. • Better understand CC and to aid in model CALVAL and analysis. • It is also a strategy to enter into partnerships and engaging various actors in the region. Need for a Collective CC Intelligence in NENA
  14. 14. Example of Climate Change-focused Research Vision EddyCovariance Surface Renewal BownRatio EB
  15. 15. STEPS Simulator of Terrestrial Ecohydrological Processes and Systems • Spatially- Explicit • Spatial resolution is flexible • Daily model • Process-based • Feed-back mechanisms addressed • BGCs (C,W,N cycles) are tightly coupled • Agroecosystems (C3 and C4 plants) • Fate of N Fertilizer transformations • Forest / Agroecosystem Management Govind et al. [2015 ], Ecological ModelingGovind et al. [2009a], J of Hydrology Govind et al. [2009b], J of Geophysical Res. Example of an Existing Upscaling Tools to address CC at Multiple Scales
  16. 16. Key areas identified by ICARDA in the MENA component of the CGIAR Special Climate Change Initiative. 1. Towards Resilient societies: transformative policy for stabilization and reconstruction under Climate Change. 2. Foresight advice on resilient food systems under Climate Change. 3. Sustainability of Agri-food Systems in the Food Baskets of MENA under Climate Change. 4. Livelihood approaches towards sustainable agriculture in marginal rangelands of MENA under Climate Change. 5. Development of Collective Intelligence to Support Climate Change Research in the MENA. 6. Spatio-temporal downscaling and analysis of climate datasets and assimilate it into various models to evaluate the effects of CC on agroecosystems.
  17. 17. Way Forward (Concluding Statements)….. 1.Work on CC-induced Water Scarcity in MENA’s Ag sector: Ag Productivity 2.GHG Fluxes across various (agro) ecosystems under CC and Management (crop, livestock, pristine, peri-urban) 3.Identify alternative cropping system (Food system) designs in MENA under CC 4.CC-inspired Plant Breeding (in a true ecophysiological sense)-phytotrons, models 5.Achieving and land degradation neutrality and optimal land use planning under CC. 6.CC impacts on Irrigated, Rainfed and Rangelands of MENA. 7.Agroecosystem resilience under CC along with institutional, social and economic capacity building.
  18. 18. Thanks! ‫شكر‬ Ajit Govind, PhD Research Scientist (Climatologist) International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) Water, Land and Ecosystems Program (WLEP) 7 Abdelhadi Salah st., Off Nile street, Giza, Cairo, EGYPT Office: (+20) 233367514 Phone +(20) 1096170543 Email: a.govind@cgiar.org

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