2. Introduction
UAA is dominated by cereals ((68% of the utilized agricultural area
(RGA, 1998)), whose performance is highly correlated to the
amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall.
Agriculture is a key sector of the
Moroccan economy.
It occupies 40% of the workforce and accounts for
15 to 20% of GDP, depending on the total amount
of rain during the growing season.
However, this agriculture is mainly rainfed (83% of Useful Agricultural
Area (UAA) against 17% for irrigated land) .
Agricultural production therefore knows significant annual fluctuations
primarily related to weather conditions and erratic rainfall.
3. General characteristics of the climate in Morocco
This climate is characterized by strong contrasts
related to geographical and ecological features of the
country:
The country is dominated by arid to semi-arid climate, and
is subject to a climate resulting from maritime influences in
the North (Mediterranean sea) and West (Atlantic Ocean)
and Sahara desert from the South.
Due to its geographical location in arid
to semi-arid, Morocco has for millennia
been strongly linked to regional climate
variability and change.
4. General characteristics of the climate of Morocco (Cont.)
This climate is
characterized
mainly by:
An inter-annual variability of rainfall with
lower rainfall in the Southern part, a small
number of days of very limited rainfall (less
than 50 days over a large part of the
territory) and episodes of periodic and
frequent droughts.
Annual average temperatures are exceeding
20°C in the South and milder along the
coast.
5. General characteristics of the climate of Morocco (Cont.)
Since 1973, which coincided with the great drought of
the Sahel, the Maghreb in general and Morocco in
particular, experienced abrupt climate change (Tabet,
2008):
Greater
occurrence of
drought: a
year out of
three
An intense
floods: 1995-
2000-2002-2006-
2008; these years
have been
catastrophic for
the country with
significant human
and material
damages
An increasing
number of heat
waves in all
seasons
A rise in sea
level (3-4 times
faster than the
global average).
6. Increased risk of drought
This drought has been especially felt
in the 80s (1981, 1983 and 1987) and
it persists in the 1990s (1992, 1993,
1995, 1999) and in the first decade of
the third millennium (2000, 2002, 2005
and 2007).
According to Stockton (1993),
droughts which occurred during this
century in Morocco are not just a
shortage of rain water. This is an
extended phenomenon over several
years which combine a shortage of
rainfall and increased evaporation of
soil moisture as the result of high
temperature.
7. Climate projections for Morocco
Continuation and acceleration of the
increase in annual average
temperatures by 0.6°C by 2015, from
2.1 to 2.9°C (2045), 3.2°C to 4.1°C
(2075);
Disruption of seasonal rainfall (winter rainfall concentrated in
a short period), reduced duration of snow cover and
withdrawal of the snowpack.
Increased frequency and intensity of heat waves (Chergui,
etc...);
Increased salinization of groundwater and soil.
Decreased rainfall by 6% (2015),
13% (2045), and 19% (2075);
8. Impact on the crops’ growth period in Morocco
The analysis of the evolution of the length of the growth
period between 1960 and 2000 in the region of Khouribga,
shows a net reduction (Benaouda and Balaghi, 2009).
The length of the growth period decreased from 180 to 110
days in some parts of Morocco.
This change is felt by farmers who are growing more cereals
with shorter growth cycle, such as barley, which adapts to
the new environment (Benaouda and Balaghi, 2009).
9. 1b. Length of the growing period in
Khouribga in the 2000s (Source:
(Benaouda and Balaghi, 2009)
Fig 1a. Length of the growing
period in Khouribga in 1960
(Source: (Benaouda and Balaghi,
2009)
Impact on the crops’ growth period in Morocco
10. The impact reduced by technological progress
The study of the improvement in crop yields in the
context of climate change, while taking account of
technological progress by INRA, Settat, shows that
negative impacts are lower.
The technology package includes the genetic
improvement of crops, use of fertilizers and pesticides,
tillage techniques, etc..
This difference between the performance with and
without technological progress indicates the possibility
for drought mitigation.
11. Materials and Methods
To fully meet the objectives of
the study and identify Drought
Mitigation Strategies and
adopted by Farmers, surveys
were conducted at agricultural
farms using a participatory
approach.
12. Selection of the study area
Aiming the integration of climate change in the implementing the
Green Morocco Plan (PMV), the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries
ranked the 16 administrative regions of Morocco according to how
important would be the impact of climate change (see Table 1).
The classification was made according to two criteria: the vulnerability
of agriculture to climate change and agricultural potential.
The vulnerability of regions to climate change is expressed by the
relative reduction in the ability of land for agriculture in 2050 compared
to the current period.
The agricultural potential of the regions is expressed in Morocco by the
total annual rainfall because it is directly related to crop productivity.
The classification of administrative regions is thus based on the
product of these two criteria; the targeted areas are those whose
products of both criteria are highest. The classification of regions, in
order of priority listed in the table below.
13. Administrative Region Vulnerability to CC%
Agricultural
potential (mm)
Ranking
Chaouia - Ouardigha 80 422 1
Grand Casablanca 79 408 2
Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaër 37 524 3
Tadla – Azilal 33 523 4
Doukkala – Abda 51 334 5
The five most vulnerable administrative regions
Sorted according to the twin criteria of vulnerability
to climate change (CC) and agricultural potential
14. How the studied region was selected?
We have therefore chosen the region of Chaouia -
Ouardigha because it is the most vulnerable.
Within this region, we have chosen the Province of
Benslimane which is divided into two circles (Benslimane
and Bouznika) and the Benslimane circle which is itself
divided into three Caïdats among which we selected the
Caïdat of Fdalate.
The study area is very wide; therefore we limited the
survey area to cereal production basin, represented by the
two rural municipalities Fdalate and Moualine EL Oued.
15. Selection of the crop
The vulnerability of sectors is measured by the relative
reduction in the productivity of sectors in 2050 compared to
the current period.
The priority sectors are those whose vulnerability and
acreages are the most important.
The relative importance of the sector in terms of area was
included in the analysis as an adaptive technology to climate
change will have more impact on agricultural productivity in
field crops for crops with limited acreages.
Table 2 shows that in the region of Chaouia-Ouardigha,
cereals are the most vulnerable to Climate Change.
Therefore, our choice for this study focused on soft wheat.
16. 1 2 3 4 5
Chaouia-
Ouardigha
Rabat - Salé –
Zemmour -
Zaër
Tadla - Azilal Doukkala -
Abda
Gharb -
Chrarda -
Beni Hssen
1 Barley Durum wheat Barley Barley Soft wheat
2 Soft wheat Barley Soft wheat Durum
wheat
Durum wheat
3 Durum wheat Durum wheat Durum wheat Soft wheat Barley
4 Maize Oat Olive Maize Sunflower
5 Faba beans Maize Almond Faba beans Faba beans
6 Lentils Lentils Faba beans Olive Chickpea
7 Olive Olive Maize Oat Olive
8 Oat Faba beans Lentils Chickpea Maize
9 Chickpea Sunflower Vetch Lentils Lentils
(Source, MAPM, February 2011)
The most vulnerable crops within five regions
17. Sampling of surveyed farmers
The surveyed population
corresponds to farmers of the
Benslimane Province
practicing cereal production.
Three categories of farms practicing the main crop were
selected:
(i) “Large" farms, that is to say those of farm size larger
than 20 ha,
(ii) Farms with the average size comprised between 5 and
20 ha, and
(iii) “Small" farms whose size is less than or equal to 5 ha.
Figure 2. Benslimane Procince
18. Sampling of surveyed farmers
This typology permitted to take
into account all the different
types of farms in the data
collection.
This work was conducted with a
group of resource persons with
a thorough knowledge of each
of the municipalities studied,
namely the Engineers of the
Provincial Directorate of
Agriculture (DPA) and the
Benslimane Technician Works
Center (CT).
Figure 3. Chaouia-Ouardigha region.
19. Data collection
During the investigation, the information collected were:
• Inventory of farm equipments,
• Soft Wheat varieties used,
• Crop planting dates,
• Rotations performed,
• Different diseases observed,
• Yield evolution with time,
• All inputs from soil preparation to harvest.
All the information was gathered by trying to go back in
time as much as possible.
Farmers interviewed were also asked to give their opinion
on changes in agricultural calendars and dates and how
their practices changed as the result of climate change.
21. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Soft wheat is the main
crop.
It is grown by most
farmers surveyed,
which corresponds to
89% of the study
sample.
It occupies 70% of the
total cultivated area.
The practice of tilled
fallow is also present
in 45% of surveyed
farms.
22. Crop rotations practiced
It appears from this study that the main previous crop for
wheat is tilled fallow.
41% of farmers practice this crop rotation. In second place
are placed food legumes (chickpeas, beans, faba beans
and lentils).
32% of farmers practice food legumes.
These precedents are justified primarily by the early
release of fields for the execution of tillage and installation
of cereal crops in order to maintain soil fertility as legumes
leave a nitrogen-rich soil.
24. Crop rotations practiced (Cont.)
Although farmers prefer to cultivate legumes in rotation
with cereals. According to surveyed farmers, it all depends
on the total rainfall.
They argue that the decrease in rainfall in recent years
constrained them to practice the tilled fallow instead.
Monoculture of cereal - cereal is also present, but in small
proportion (14 %), as it isn’t advised to grow wheat after
another cereal (wheat, barley, oats), and that monoculture
always leads to yield losses.
25. Impact of Climate Change on Farmers’s Practices
Farmers surveyed say there is a change in rotation: while
in the past years they practiced monoculture (cereal on
cereal) because rain was abundant, now they are forced to
consider growing cereals in rotation with tilled fallow.
The rotation cereal - tilled fallow permits better
management of time, water conservation for the next
growing season and facilitation of soil tillage and sowing of
the cereal crop.
It has been shown in Morocco and other countries of the
importance of fallow in crop rotations because it allows
water and soil conservation and higher yields of the
following crops (Mazhar, 1987 Amir et al., 1988. Greb et al.,
1979. Greb, 1983; Dalrymple et al, 1988 cited by
Aboudrare, 1990: Bouzza 1990).
26. Impact of Climate Change on Sowing date
The arrival of the first rain reassures farmers, allows the
emergence of weeds that are eliminated during seedbed
preparation.
The first rain makes tillage easier especially where tractors
with low horsepower are used.
During our investigation we were able to identify three
planting periods (Figure ...).
27. Impact of Climate Change on Sowing date (Cont.)
Figure 6. Sowing dates practiced by the interviewed farmers.
28. Impact of Climate Change on Sowing date
Producers interviewed both individually and in group
evoked climate disruption.
According to farmers, for many years the agricultural
calendar was properly respected in the region.
But with climate change observed in recent years, this
timetable, including planting times became difficult task for
farmers.
To adapt to these climate changes, they adopted early
sowing (October). In Benslimane region, the seeding is
often made after the first autumn rains which usually occur
in late October.
29. The majority of farmers sow wheat in mid-November
(44% of the sample) (see Figure 6).
25% of farmers sow wheat between late October and
early November for early sowing and
31% of farmers sow wheat from late November to early
December.
Almost all farmers are aware that early sowing (before
November 15) is better but this practice is not often
observed because farmers do not have sufficient
traction capacity to plough soil in dry conditions.
Impact of Climate Change on Sowing date (Cont.)
30. Impact of Climate Change on Sowing Date (Cont.)
Seeding during the period from October 20 to late November recorded
much higher yields than those obtained for late sowing. Yield gain is
between 10 and 60% for wheat.
Planting wheat beyond November 15 is accompanied by a yield loss.
Early sowing before the first rain are most recommended because they
allow wheat to valorise the rainy season and avoid water stress and
high temperature at end of the growth cycle and thus increase the
yields.
Low cereal production is mainly due to the combined effects of drought
and attacks by Hessian fly named Midge. Droughts promote the
proliferation of midge populations and highlight its attacks. During
dry periods, the late-planted fields are heavily attacked by the midge
(INRA, Settat).
Early sowing helps to escape the second generation of the Hessian fly
(midge).
31. Varieties Frequency
(%)
Achtar 37
Salama 35
Mahdia 15
Rihane 7
Radia 6
• Another noticed change in cultural practices is
the adoption of new crop varieties. Farmers
change almost annually the cultivated varieties.
• Local varieties have completely disappeared.
The reasons given for their disappearance are
long growth cycles, and low yields.
• The reasons for the introduction of the new
varieties are among others: the short growing
cycle, the relatively high yield and resistance to
diseases.
• It is mentioned by 60% of respondents who
consult the National Catalogue of wheat varieties
to select those which present short growth cycle,
resistant to diseases and drought, and are
therefore adapted to climate change.
• Few farmers are importing new varieties from
abroad.
Soft wheat varieties practiced
32. Soft wheat varieties practiced (Cont.)
The gain in yield compared to old varieties is comprised
between 10 and 50%. The gain is greater in relatively
dry years (INRA, 2009).
These varieties resistant to pests and drought allow not
only increased productivity, but savings in pesticides
with positive effects on the environment and quality of
crops.
We should mention that smallholders have difficulty
adapting to climate disruption.
33. Disruption of traditional agricultural calendar
Different climate risks highlighted introduced in farming
a situation of uncertainty that affects any decision to
conduct a farming operation (seeding, fertilization, and
herbicide and fungicide application).
In fact, for more than 65% of the surveyed farmers,
agricultural seasons become very unstable.
They claim the increasing difficulty to select the proper
planting dates and are fully aware that wheat seedlings
are at risk after emergence.
Consequently, execution of other agricultural operations
become random. This affects the production at the end
of the season.
34. Decrease & Fluctuation of Wheat Yields
All the farmers in our sample are unanimous on the yield
reduction during the last 30 years.
Indeed, the growth and development environment and plant are
severely disrupted in recent years and no longer promote good
yields.
However, the climate is not the only factor determining the
performance; other determinants of performance (soil fertility,
seed quality, pests and diseases ...) also participate strongly to
the perceived decline in yields.
This is probably due to the random nature of rainfall; which
constitutes the main limiting factor for the application of
appropriate management techniques that could improve cereal
yields.
In addition farmers cannot afford to use certified seeds or apply
fertilizers because of their high costs.
35. CONCLUSION
This study is a contribution to the knowledge of perceptions of climate
change experienced by farmers and adaptation strategies in response
to these changes.
The results converge to say that the impact of climate change on
agriculture and in particular on the production of cereals, will be
considerable if no action is taken to reduce their vulnerability to these
variations.
To assess the level of adaptation to these changes, we were interested
in two municipalities in the Benslimane region.
Farmers from the municipalities of Fdalate and Moualine El Oued, face
enormous difficulties in the exercise of their farming activities. Among
these are the problems caused by climate change.
36. CONCLUSION (Cont.)
The results of surveys of agricultural producers in the study area
show that the delay in the onset of rains, the episodes of drought
during the rainy season, the poor spatial distribution of rainfall, the
decrease of rainfall, violent winds, and excessive heat, represent
major risks that characterize the climate of recent years.
These climatic changes are not without consequences on
agriculture, particularly on crop production.
On the latter, the consequences are reflected in particular by the
upheaval of traditional farming calendar especially periods of
sowing, loss of crops at different growth stages, and yield
reductions.
37. CONCLUSION (Cont.)
To reduce the impact of climate change, farmers develop and adopt
coping strategies among which we can mention:
o Changing planting times;
o The gradual adoption of short cycle varieties resistant to
drought and disease;
o The Changing of crop sequences (rotation);
o Integration on the same farm of crop production and
livestock.
These climatic changes are not without consequences on agriculture,
particularly on crop production.
On the latter, the consequences are reflected in particular by the
upheaval of traditional farming especially periods of sowing
schedules, destruction of crops at different growth stages, and yield
loss.
38. Recommendations
Encourage farmers to
replace old varieties
with newly created
ones
Diversifying crops and
crop rotations through
the introduction of
new species
Optimize planting
dates, and mineral
fertilization
Involve technologies
allowing early sowing
To provide
supplementary irrigation
to cope with droughts at
the middle and at the end
of the growth cycle
Maintain a portion of crop
residues on the field to improve
the infiltration of rainwater and
reduce evaporation losses and
reduce erosion and increase soil
organic matter in the soil.
Faced with the impact of climate change, according to long
term projections for 2030 and 2050, it is urgent to:
