THEME – 2 Adaption of potato crops to climate change
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R . S c h a f l e i t n e r 1
J. R a m i re z 2
A . J a r v i s 2
D. Ev e rs 3
R . G u t i e r re z 4
M . S c u r ra h 4
1 A V R D C – T h e W o r l d V e g e t a b l e C e n t e r,
Ta i w a n
2 C I AT, C o l o m b i a
3 C R P - G a b r i e l L i p p m a n n , L u x e m b o u r g
4 C I P P e r u
Adaption of the potato crop to climate
change
Walter Amoros
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AVRDC – The World Vegetable Center
Founded in 1971 as the
Asian Vegetable Research and
Development Center with a regional
research focus on Asia
Our research and development is
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The World Vegetable Center has an
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Alleviate poverty and
malnutrition in the
developing world through
the increased production
and consumption of
health-promoting
vegetables.
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• Vegetable production generates
higher farm income and more
jobs than other crops
• Especially suited for small farms
and women farmer
• Vegetable value chains
strengthen the rural economy
Vegetables are healthy –
and a path out of poverty
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Headquarters
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Central America
East &
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Central & West Asia
and North Africa
Oceania
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Potato and Climate Change
Global temperatures are likely to rise
Precipitation patterns are likely to change
Potato is sensitive to heat and drought
Potato production is likely to
be affected by climate change
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Potato and Climate Change
Which climatic effect will affect potato production where and
to which extent?
cipotato.org
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Climate changes projections for potato growing
regions
Baseline
Averages 1960 – 2000 of monthly max, min. and mean
temperatures and precipitation
Resolution of 30-arcsecond (~1 km), reduced to 5-arcminute (10
km)
Future climate
Statistically downscaled output of Global Circulation Models
2010-2039
SRES-A2 emission scenario “business as usual”
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Potato production areas
Summer potato in temperate zones: 45° N – 57°N
Winter potato in subtropical lowlands: 23° N – 34° N
25% of the potato area > 1000 m altitude
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Present and future climate suitability for potato
production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
Parameters:
Tkill: Temperature at which the crop will die
Tmin: Minimum temperature at which the crop will grow
Topmin: Minimum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
Topmax: Maximum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
Tmax: Maximum temperature at which the crop will grow
Rmin: Minimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
Ropmin: Minimum optimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
Ropmax: Maximum optimum amount of water for the crop to grow
Rmax: Maximum amount of rain water below which the crop grows
Gmin: Minimum length of the growing season
Gmax: Maximum length of the growing season.
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Present and future climate suitability for potato
production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
Separate suitability indices for
temperature and rainfall
Computing final suitability rating by
multiplying temperature and precipitation
suitabilities
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/ClimateChange/EcoCropFB/#
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Predicted suitability 2020
• Highest reduction in suitability in tropical highlands & southern Africa
• Large gains in suitability in high latitudes or high tropical altitudes
• Net change: +1.3 % suitability
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Potential benefits from improved stress tolerance
1) Heat tolerance (+2.5°C)
Climate change impact reduction on 65% of
current potato area
Expansion to 15.5 million hectares of new area
2) Cold tolerance (-2.5°C)
Plus 8.7 million hectares of new suitable area
3) Drought tolerance (25% less water
requirement)
Benefit for 2.8 million hectares – overlapping
with heat stress tolerance impact areas
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Conclusion
CC predictions suggest potato yield
reductions in the tropics and large
gains in high latitudes
Reducing temperature sensitivity
would have largest impact on CC
adaptation of the potato crop