48V Mild Hybrid by IDTechEx at Automechanika

4. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com The only quick, low-cost way of keeping most conventional vehicles legal under tighter emissions regulations 2025/2030. In the decade 2016-2026 and maybe to 2031, there may be more 48V MH cars made than strong hybrid and pure electric cars combined. Volume sales begin in 2017. In its most advanced form it promises brief pure electric drive for smooth and silent take-off, parking, creeping and sailing (active coasting). That meets the definition of an electric vehicle.

5. Audi 48V demo

6. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Primary motivation is emissions reduction meeting the onerous 2025 and 2030 regulations more easily and more affordably than by EV (ie strong hybrid or pure electric). Otherwise impossible for conventional powertrains beyond those for small vehicles. Reduces CO2 emissions by 10-20%, depending on the test cycle. Attractiveness of 48V mild hybrids to OEMs is enhanced by the forthcoming Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure & Cycle (WLTP/WLTC). 48V mild hybrids will be 50-75% cheaper than full hybrids (Valeo). Hyundai estimates 25% of cost of a full hybrid but a weight penalty of 46kg. 48V devices and interconnects are smaller and lighter eg wiring harnesses - four times the voltage means the current reduced by a magnitude of four, so wire diameter can be reduced or Cu replaced with cheaper Al. Secondary benefit improving performance and pleasure more easily and affordably than by EV. This secondary benefit gives such things as improved acceleration, ride (active suspension), quietness (engine downsized/ downspeeded, silent pure electric take-off, silent stop-start.) Great development potential eg handle many more clients and sources (regen. And energy harvesting from ambient energy Why 48V “mild hybrid” architecture for conventional internal combustion engine vehicle?

8. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Existing 12V cars and 24V trucks and buses had almost run out of development potential Cannot accept the hundreds and thousands of kilowatts from regenerative braking and other regeneration (thermoelectric, exhaust turbine, regenerative suspension etc) Cannot provide the 15 kW for more and more electrification for better ride, economy, emissions. (supercharger, air conditioning, pumps..) Cannot ever drive the wheels electrically – no electric motor, not enough power INADEQUATE POWER HANDLING AND STORAGE. 12V/24 does not scale up.

9. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Replace the engine with a smaller downspeeded one Replace the alternator with a reversing electric machine that can boost the engine when needed (“torque assist”) accept full regen braking, start the engine and later drive the wheels briefly pure electric. Jargon “Boost Recuperation Machine”/ “Belt Drive Starter Generator BSG”. “Integrated Starter Generator ISG”. Two way DC-DC converter lets the above machine charge on demand both the existing 12V battery and an added 48V battery Add a large 48V battery such as a lithium-ion battery that has higher energy density and is a bit bigger than the existing lead acid battery but lighter with 4X storage. It can power the car along on its own for brief intervals How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car Add a high capacity high power density 48V battery eg Li-ion or advanced lead-acid For now, keep the 12V PbA battery for safety critical operations and ones too expensive to convert 2 way DC-DC inverter

10. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Car accepts, provides and stores four times as much electricity. More electrical outputs: Electrify devices that further reduce emissions and improve performance and comfort – Power steering, aircon, supercharger…..) More electrical inputs: Fully efficient regenerative braking Solar, infrared, wind, turbine in exhaust, thermoelectric on exhaust, triboelectric tires, energy harvesting shock absorbers/ active suspension…….. Result

11. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Image source Continental November 2015 First generation 48V system: belt drive starter generator gives torque assist (boost for 60% engine down sizing) but usually no PEV modes. Much work done by the old 12V battery system.

13. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com The show so far: adoption of electrified powertrains Application Reason Buses, golf cars, microcars, microEVs, mobility for disabled, bikes, motorbikes, small boats, autonomous underwater vehicles, small aircraft including drones, airships, military land water air Emissions illegal indoors, increasingly unacceptable in city centers and impracticable under water. PEVs can be Energy Independent Vehicles EIV that never plug in. Best rider experience. Only practicable option for most Autonomous Vehicles AV and extreme stop-start cycles. For military: stealth, minimal heat or noise emissions for missiles to home in on, easy provision of redundancy for attack tolerance Upgrading of conventional cars and trucks Cost-effective, rapid meeting of new emissions regulations while improving rider experience Cars, trucks, some large buses, aircraft, motorbikes, mining, construction, agriculture, military, outdoor forklifts Good fuel economy/ emissions, heavy duty cycles without severe range limitation in affordable form. However, large hybrid buses are losing out to pure electric as urban PEV range becomes adequate and PEV mode is increasingly demanded in city centers. Contrast large hybrid trucks which need much longer range and have minimal stop start.

14. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Almost all mild hybrids are being standardised on 48V By far the biggest market these will be for on-road vehicles, notably cars and trucks but there will be off-road and marine applications All leading manufacturers of conventional cars are working on 48V mild hybrid versions primarily because they see it as the best way of meeting more onerous emissions legislation in the 2025-2030 timeframe. Automotive companies prioritise 48V mild hybrid very differently as exemplified below. Powertrain electrification priorities of automotive companies for the next ten years Best solutions for market needs 2016-2030 Prioritising 48V mild hybrid Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric but doing many 48V mild hybrid Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric and doing few 48V mild hybrid Prioritising pure electric and full hybrid and nothing else Doing pure electric and nothing else Volkswagen GM Fiat Chrysler Mercedes Suzuki Volvo Trucks Hyundai Toyota Proton Mazda Honda Ford BMW Nissan Yutong Geely CSR Times BAIC BYD Tesla Terra Motors Pihsiang Zero Motorcycles Polaris Industries Charlatte

15. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems expressed in our 2016 interviews and events Window of opportunity for 48V mild hybrids 10 years Well over 10 years Vocis GKN Volkswagen Continental CSA Group CPT EPS 48V alone will be dominant in a few years from now Dual voltage systems will be popular for at least ten years GM Ford UK automotive professor Energy Power Systems CSA Group (“possible”) GKN Volkswagen Audi Continental Bosch Daimler Hella MDL Technologies Romax Technology Continental CPT

16. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Electric cars (strong hybrid and pure electric cars) vs 48V mild hybrid and conventional cars: number K 2014-2031 48V mild hybrid never takes 100% of the conventional car market because some small cars will meet emissions laws without it and some countries will have loosely enforced legislation. Only IDTechEx forecasts EVs in 46 categories land water air. Pure electric for long periods Torque assist (boost) permits engine downsize. Four brief pure electric modes available in later years Often with stop start Collapse could be earlier if Apple/ Tesla style pure electric buying frenzy occurs (like smart phones) Possible saturation or drop in total market if rental/ use-on-demand widely used eg in China

17. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Global interest in 48V mild hybrids, particularly for C and D cars. First sales 2017. B cars, light commercial and trucks later. 48V mild hybrids will be the lowest cost way of meeting 2025/ 2030 emissions laws Expect big success. Conventional ICE becomes illegal, strong hybrids that do not plug in too expensive. Weight and cost a bit higher than conventional initially. 48V mild hybrids will have 1 or 2 integrated starter-generators within a few years permitting up to 4 PEV modes ie they will become “electric vehicles” with pure electric takeoff, creep, active coasting, parking. 2019 onwards? A possible lithium-ion battery famine in a few years will assist sales of 48V mild hybrids because they use a relatively small lithium-ion battery or none at all (advanced lead acid) Suitable electrically driven consumers are available and affordable. Suitable new forms of regeneration and external harvesting are being developed. Power handling will rise to 20kW. Lead-acid battery will go. 1kWh Li-ion wins. By 2035, pure electric vehicles will kill most hybrids including 48V. Conclusions

18. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Read the new IDTechEx reports, “Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031” “Future Powertrains 2016-2026” “Electric Vehicle Traction Motors, Belt Driven & Integrated Starter Generators 2016-2026” For more

20. Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Supporting your strategic business decisions on emerging technologies Offices: USA: +1 617 577 7890 Germany: +49 3991 669 3591 UK: +44 (0)1223 812 300 Japan: +81 90 5566 1533 www.IDTechEx.com IDTechEx conducts detailed examinations of emerging technologies, which are delivered through our Market Research Reports and Subscription services. Research Our expert analysts deliver custom projects which identify markets, appraise technologies, define growth opportunities and perform due diligence. Consulting IDTechEx conferences and tradeshows match end users with the latest innovations, providing networking, sales and knowledge sharing. Events Dr. Peter Harrop p.harrop@IDTechEx.com

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