Bi-directional linkage of TIMES-Norway and a power system model

1. Bi-directional linkage between TIMES-Norway
and a power system model
73rd Semi-Annual ETSAP meeting
Chalmers University, 17.06.2018
Pernille Seljom & Eva Rosenberg – IFE
Linn Emelie Schäffer – SINTEF Energy Research

2. v
v
• Bi-directional linking between Energy system and Power system models
provide
• Consistency between models
• Improved decision support
• Literature dominated by Uni-directional linking
• No direct improvement of the energy system model
• Literature on bi-directional linking exclude parts of the energy system
• Do not utilise the strength of the energy system model!
• Novelty - Bi-directional linking of a complete energy system model
29.06.2018 2
Motivation

3. v
v
29.06.2018 3
TIMES-Norway
• Energy system model of Norway
• Coarse hydropower
Model characteristics
EMPS
• Power system model of Europe
• Detailed hydropower in NO & SE
Model parameter EMPS TIMES-Norway
Electricity capacity in Norway Exogenous Endogenous
Electricity demand in Norway Exogenous Endogenous
Electricity generation in Norway Endogenous Endogenous
Electricity prices in Norway Endogenous Endogenous
Electricity prices outside Norway Endogenous Exogenous

4. v
v
29.06.2018 4
• Detailed description of the hydropower
system
• Fine temporal and spatial resolution
• Stochastic - 58 historical weather years
• Optimization method
1. Water value calculation based on
aggregated system, stochastic
weather
2. Simulation with detailed disposal of
the hydropower system
EMPS - Multi area Power-market simulator
Historical inflow
years

5. v
v
29.06.2018 5
EMPS
• Consistent model input for Norway
• Electricity generation capacity
• Electricity demand
Motivation for linkage
TIMES-Norway
• Consistent electricity trade prices
• DK, SE, DE, NL, UK
• Improved hydropower
• Reservoir hydro
• Improved model results

6. v
v
29.06.2018 6
• Bi-directional linkage
• Complete energy system
• Convergence criteria
• Endogenous parameters in
both models
• Income rather than
production
• Novel methodology
Our linking strategy- TIMES-NO↔EMPS
Power system model
EMPS
Energy system model
TIMES-Norway
H
a
r
m
o
n
i
s
a
t
i
o
n
Convergence Results
No
Yes
A
C
C
D
B

7. v
v
29.06.2018 7
• A) TIMES-NO→ EMPS
• 2030 & 2050, by region
• Electricity capacity
• Transmission capacity
• Electricity demand
• B) EMPS → TIMES-NO
• 2030 & 2050, by region
• Electricity prices in Europe
• Hydropower production
• Week & spot price region
Our linking strategy- TIMES-NO↔EMPS
Power system model
EMPS
Energy system model
TIMES-Norway
H
a
r
m
o
n
i
s
a
t
i
o
n
Convergence Results
No
Yes
A
C
C
D
B

8. v
v
Result Comparison
• Hydropower production
• Hydropower income → Production x Price
• Hydropower sales Price → Income/ Production
29.06.2018 8
Iteration 1
Power system model
(EMPS-NO)
Energy system model
(TIMES-Norway)
Demand 1
Capacity 1
EMPS electricity
trade prices - 1

9. v
v
29.06.2018 9
1) Hydropower production 2050
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week
Week
Production TIMES L1 145.5 TWh
→ Different production profile & similar annual production
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week
Week
Production EMPS i1 145.1 TWh
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week
Week
Production TIMES L1 145.5 TWh
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerproduciton,GWh/week
Week
Production EMPS i1 145.1 TWh

10. v
v
29.06.2018 10
1) Hydropower income 2050
→ 10 % higher hydropower income in TIMES than EMPS
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
TIMES L1 52 575 mill NOK
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
EMPS i1 47 665 mill NOK

11. v
v
29.06.2018 11
1) Hydropower sales price 2050
→ 19 % higher hydropower average sales price in TIMES than EMPS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 11 21 31 41 51
Electricityprice,NOK/kWh
Week
Price TIMES L1 361 NOK/kWh
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 11 21 31 41 51
Electricityprice,NOK/kWh
Week
Price EMPS i1 328 NOK/kWh

12. v
v
29.06.2018 12
Results- Hydropower in TIMES
• Results converge after iteration 2
• If convergence criteria is only related
to TIMES
• Linking = Successful ......
130
135
140
145
150
2030 2050
Production,TWh
1 2 3 4 5
-
20
40
60
80
2030 2050
Income,bill.NOK
1 2 3 4 5
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2030 2050
SalespriceNOK/kWh
1 2 3 4 5

13. v
v
300
320
340
360
380
1 2 3 4 5
SalespriceNOK/kWh
Iteration
TIMES 2050
EMPS
29.06.2018 13
Results- Hydropower in TIMES & EMPS
• Income tend to converge !
• Differences between TIMES & EMPS
• Different model characteristics
• Lack of convergence
44 000
46 000
48 000
50 000
52 000
54 000
1 2 3 4 5
IncomemillNOK
Iteration
TIMES 2050
EMPS

14. v
v
29.06.2018 14
Results- TIMES electricity generation capacity 2050
• Wind capacity most
sensitive to the iteration
L1 L2 L3 L4
WIND 5.8 1.8 4.4 2.5
HYDRO 35.2 34.1 34.4 34.2
PV 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CHP + GAS 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Electricitygen.cap.,GW
CHP + GAS PV HYDRO WIND

15. v
v
29.06.2018 15
Results– TIMES elc. consumption and trade
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
2030 2050
Electricityconsumption,TWh
→ Export is more sensitive to the iteration than consumption
-10 -5 - 5 10 15 20 25
1
2
3
4
5
Net export from Norway in 2050, TWh
Iterationnumber

16. v
v
29.06.2018 16
Iteration comparison 1→ 5
Hydropower production 2050

17. v
v
29.06.2018 17
Iteration comparison 1→ 5 Hydro income 2050
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
TIMES L1 52 575 mill NOK
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
EMPS i1 47 665 mill NOK
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
TIMES L5 48 440 mill NOK
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
1 11 21 31 41 51
Hydropowerincome,mill.NOK
Week
EMPS i5 47 950 mill NOK

18. v
v
• Bi-directional linkage between TIMES-Norway and EMPS provides
consistent and improved model results
• Electricity generation, including hydropower
• Electricity consumption and trade
• The results are highly converged after linking iteration 2
• Next steps
• How to further improve the linking?
• How to improve TIMES-Norway when operating alone?
29.06.2018 18
Concluding remarks

19. v
v
Thank you for your attention!
Pernille.Seljom@ife.no
19