Transition pathways as “inter-disciplinary meeting place”

1. Transition pathways as “inter-
disciplinary meeting place”
Kristina Haaskjold
Kari Aamodt Espegren
Eva Rosenberg
Pernille Seljom
ETSAP Winter
Workshop 2022
01.12.2022 Columbia University, New York

2. NTRANS
Is a center for Energy Transition Strategies
• National research center (2020-2027)
• Research on the role of the energy system in
the transition to a zero-emission society
• Interaction between technology and society
– include the role of citizens and their
interaction with technology and systems
• Fair and democratic transition
• Develop theory, methods, competence and
knowledge to support decision-making
processes
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3. 10-step methodology developed in NTRANS
1. Develop scenarios - based on socio-technical research
2. Quantify the scenarios – in dialog with partners in NTRANS
3. Analysis with NTRANS models
4. Discussion of analysis results and selection of case for in-depth analysis
5. Quantitative case study – in-depth analysis
6. Qualitative case study – in-depth analysis
7. Analysis/discussion: what are important measures to reduce bottlenecks in the
transition?
8. Include uncertainty (short, medium, and long term) and bottlenecks in model analysis
9. Discuss policy implications from the model-based analysis and the socio-technical
analysis
10.Summarize the research in a policy paper and a results presentation
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4. NTRANS scenarios
4
High
Low
Technological
change
High
Low Societal change
Scenarios are based
on socio-technical
research
• Technological
change
• Societal change
TECHnological
change
pathway
RADical
change
pathway
INCremental
change
pathway
SOCial
change
pathway

5. Example of assumptions
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Technological Radical
High activity/demand Low activity/demand
High wind onshore Low wind onshore
Unlimited transmission No new transmission
10 % rate 4 % rate
Municipal waste as today No waste
Wind offshore High potential, lower cost High potential, lower cost
Biofuel & bio coal Expensive Expensive
Hydrogen technologies High learning rate High learning rate
Blue hydrogen Yes No
CCS Yes No
Incremental Society
Medium activity/demand Low activity/demand
High wind onshore Low wind onshore
Unlimited transmission No new transmission
10 % rate 4 % rate
Municipal waste as today No waste
Wind offshore High cost High cost
Biofuel & bio coal Unlimited Unlimited
Hydrogen technologies Low learning rate Low learning rate
Blue hydrogen No No
CCS Yes No
High
Low
Technological
change
High
Low Societal change

6. Energy use per sector
• Energy use in transport reduced in all
scenarios, most in RAD and least in
INC
• Energy use in buildings reduced with
1% in INC and TECH and 23% in SOC
and RAD
• Energy use in industry incl. petroleum
• Halved in SOC and RAD
• 18% reduction in INC
• Almost doubles in TECH
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Technology change Low Low High High
Societal change Low High Low High
-
100
200
300
400
500
2020
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD
TWh/year
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Transport

7. Net domestic energy use
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Technology change Low Low High High
Societal change Low High Low High
• Electricity consumption increase in
all scenarios
• Bio: increases compared to 2020,
mostly used in INC
• Natural gas: used in production of
blue hydrogen in TECH
• Still some use of fossil energy in
industry in all scenarios
-
100
200
300
400
500
2020
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD
TWh/year
Gas to blue H2
Fossil without blue H2
Bio
El

8. Electricity consumption
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• Total use of el. in 2050
• 270 TWh in TECH
• Today’s level in SOC
• Use of el. in industry:
• Highest increase in scenarios with low
societal change (130 TWh in Tech in
2050)
• Today’s level in 2050 in scenarios with
high societal change
• Use of el in transport and for
production of hydrogen:
• Highest increase in scenarios with high
technology change (75 TWh in TECH in
2050)
Technology change Low Low High High
Societal change Low High Low High
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD
TWh/year
Electricity use (excl. grid losses)
H2 prod.
Transport
Industry
Buildings

9. Power production
• Hydro
• Increase of 12-14 TWh in all scenarios to 2050
• Onshore wind
• Small increase in scenarios with high societal change
(14 TWh in SOC and RAD in 2050)
• Higher increase in scenarios with low societal change
(53 TWh in TECH in 2050)
• Offshore wind
• Increase largely in scenarios with high technology change
(139 TWh in TECH in 2050)
• Less development in scenarios with low technology change
(21 TWh in INC and SOC)
• Solar PV
• 13-19 TWh in 2050 (highest in RAD)
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-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2020
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Stat. INC SOC TECH RAD
TWh/year
CHP
PV
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro
Teknologiendring Low Low High High
Samfunnsendring Low High Low High

10. CO2 emissions
• All scenarios follow the same trend:
• Road transport is faster decarbonized compared to sea
transport
• Still remaining emissions in industry, can be reduced
with new technology (e.g., CCS or DAC)
• Production of blue hydrogen is not emission-free
Emission reduction:
• INC: 85%
• SOC: 86%
• TECH: 76%
• RAD: 90%
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2018
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
INC SOC TECH RAD
million
ton
CO2
District heat
Other transport
Sea transport
Road transport
Blue hydrogen
Other industry
Aluminium
Technology change Low Low High High
Societal change Low High Low High

11. Electricity trade
• Net export for all periods and all scenarios
• Largest export volumes in RAD and TECH
• RAD - Example of why price elasticity is important
• Iterative process to make results more trustworthy
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-
20
40
60
80
100
120
INC SOC TECH RAD
TWh/year
Net power trade (import - export)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

12. Learnings from the process
• Collaboration and dialogue with other disciplines is highly valuable
• Results reflect also societal change – increases credibility
• Inclusion of user-partners to give input based on their expertise
• Even if we have not completed the 10-step methodology yet, our
experience is that it is valuable to work in close cooperation with the
other research disciplines in the center.
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