Transition to a secure and low-carbon Swiss energy system

1. Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Transition to a secure and low carbon Swiss energy
system
Ramachandran Kannan
66th Semi-Annual IEA-ETSAP meeting
17-19 November 2014
Copenhagen, Denmark

2. • Swiss energy system
• Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM)
• Scenarios
• Results
• Conclusions
Outline
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3. Overview of Swiss energy system
Switzerland final energy demand
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4. Overview of Swiss energy system
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Challenges
 Alternatives to the low carbon nuclear energy 
limited non-hydro renewable resources
 Seasonal variation in supply-demand  imported
electricity for winter
 Decarbonisation of heating and transport 
Imported fossil fuels

5. Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
• Time horizon: 2010 – 2100
• 5-year period length in near term and 10-15 years
in long term
• 144 intra-annual time splits (timeslices)
• hourly representation of weekdays & weekends
in Summer, Winter and an intermediate season
• Five end-use sectors with subsector description
• Six industrial subsectors (chemicals, cement,
metal, food,…)
• Four categories of residential heating (existing-,
new-, single- and multi-family houses)
• Agriculture, shipping and aviation for calibration
(i.e.limited optimization)
• Detailed electricity and energy conversion
modules
• Existing and new electricity/heat generation
technologies, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.
• Fully calibrated to the BFE’s 2010 energy
balance
• Final energy demand, CO2 emission, car stock,
power plants,…..
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Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Fuel
production
module
Fuel
distribution
module
Demand modulesElectricity
generation
module
Resource module
Electricity import
Uranium
Natural gas
Hydrogen
Electricity export
Electricity
Other fuels
Renewable
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Waste
Electricity
storage
Hydro resource
• Run of rivers
• Reservoirs
CO2
Demand
technologies
Residential
- Boiler
- Heat pump
- Air conditioner
- Appliances
Services
Industires
Hydro plants
Nuclear plants
Natural gas
GTCC
Solar PV
Wind
Geothermal
Other
Taxes &
Subsidies
Hydrogen fuel
cell
Energy
demand
services
Vehicle
kilometre
/ tkm
Lighting
Motors
Space
heating
Hot water
heating
Oil
Transport
Car fleet
ICE
Hybrid vehicles
PHEV
BEV
Fuel cell
Bus/LGV/
HGV
Macroeconomicdrivers(e.g.,population,GDP,floorarea,vkm)
Internationalenergyprices(oil,naturalgas,electricity,...)
Technologycharacterization(efficiency,lifetime,costs,…
Resourcepotential(wind,solar,biomass,….)
Biofuels
Biogas

6. Seite 6
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Renewable availability patten
Wind availability factor
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
00 04 08 12 16 20
Hours
Summer Fall
Winter Spring
Solar PV availability factor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 5 9 13 17 21
Summer Winter Fall Spring
Availability of hydro plants
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
River hydro Dam hydro
Hydro Wind Solar PV

7. Seite 7
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Cost of residential building
conservation measures
Residential heat demand profile 

8. Scenarios
Business as usual scenario
• Energy service demands from Swiss Energy Perspective 2050
• International energy (ETP 2014) & electricity (CROSSTEM*) prices
• CO2 price as per the Swiss Energy Perspective 2050
• Nuclear phase out and option for new gas power plants
• Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply
Low carbon scenario
• 60% reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2050
Energy security scenario
• Reduce fossil fuel imports by 55% by 2050
*Cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model
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9. Results
Final energy demand - BAU
• Final energy demand declines about 30%
by 2050
• End-use energy efficiency
• Fuel substitution/switching
• Uptake of building energy
conservation measures
• Electricity demand increases
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• Space heating  declines two-thirds by
2050  building conservation / efficiency of
heating technologies.
• Transport fuel demand  declines 40% 
most of the reductions in car
• Electricity demand for air conditioning
almost doubles

10. Results
Final energy demand – LC60
• Final energy demand declines about 38%
by 2050  Residential – 50%, Transport –
32%, Services – 18%
• Conservations is 50% higher than the BAU
scenario
• Direct use of solar energy for heating
applications becomes cost effective
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• Oil- and gas-based heating systems are fully
phased by 2050
• Uptake of costly conservation measures is
also important in the early period even
though the CO2 target becomes stringent
only later  assumed to be available only at
the time of building renovation.

11. Results
Final energy demand – SEC
• Final energy demand declines about 30% by 2050  Similar to LC60
• Electricity demand in 2050 is 12% lower than the LC60 and BAU scenarios
• Continuation of fossil fuels in transport
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12. Results
Car fleet
BAU
• ICE  advanced ICE cars  hybrid cars 
battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
• By 2050, 40% of the car fleet (i.e. two
million cars) are BEV.
• Average CO2 emission decline from 208 g-
CO2/km (2010)  144 g-CO2/km (2020) 
45 g-CO2/km (2050)
LC60
• ICE  advanced ICE cars  hybrid cars
 Plug-in hybrid  BEVs
• Car fleet almost decarbonised
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SEC
• ICE  advanced ICE cars  hybrid cars
 Plug-in hybrid

13. Results
Residential energy demand
BAU
• Reduction of about 2% per annum
• Oil  gas  electric heat pumps
• Cost of gas vs. electric network expansion
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14. Results
Electricity supply
BAU
• Electricity demand grows at 0.7% per
annum
• Nuclear plants are replaced by natural gas
combined cycle plants
• 12% of the electricity supply is from
renewable in 2050
LC60
• Renewable electricity  22% (2050)
• Higher uptake of CHPs
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SEC
• Low electrification  less gas based
generation

15. Results
WinterweekdaysSummerweekdays
Marginal cost electricity
Gasoline hybrid car
Pumping
Exports
Demand
BEV
charging
Battery electric
vehicles
Electricity supply-demand balance - BAU scenario - Weekday
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16. Results
WinterweekdaysSummerweekdays
Plug-in
hybrid car
Imports
BEV
charging
Battery electric
vehicles
Electricity supply-demand balance - LC60 scenario - Weekdays
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17. Results
CO2 emissions - BAU
• Direct CO2 emissions from end use sectors reduce  Additional CO2 emissions from
electricity sector
• Electrification ‘shifts’ some the direct (end use) CO2 emissions to the electricity sector 
Nevertheless there is net reduction in CO2 emissions
Electricity
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Residential

18. Results
CO2 emissions
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19. Results
Annual energy system costs in 2050
In the LC60 scenario (additional annual costs wrt. BAU in 2050)
• Additional cost  CHF 6.81 billion for the LC60 scenario / CHF 4 billion for the SEC scenario
• Fuel costs and taxes decline because of reduced consumption of fuels
• In the electricity sector  about CHF 2 billion because of deployment of capital-intensive renewables
• High capital expenditure  CHF 8.7 billion, some of this additional expenditure is offset by reductions in fuel
expenditure/taxes
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20. Results
Scenario indicators in 2050
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Indicators Units 2010 BAU LC60 SEC
Per capita electricity consumption MWh 7.6 8.9 8.8 7.8
Per capita final energy consumption MWh 32 21 20 20
Per capita CO2 emission t-CO2 4.91 2.67 1.38 1.55
Residential electricity use per household MWh 5.3 5.7 5.2 5.6
Cumulative CO2 emissions* (2010–2050) M.t-CO2 43 1559 1294 1348
Average CO2 intensity of car fleet g-CO2/km 208 45 2 61
Electricity intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 109 100 100 88
Final energy intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 456 239 225 229
CO2 intensity* t-CO2 per M.CHF 79 37 23 25
Total energy cost** % of GDP 4.5% 6.5% 7.3% 7.0%
Per capita undiscounted energy costs** CHF2010 3'108 5'732 6'485 6'167
* including international aviation
** The 2010 energy cost does not include investment costs of existing technology stock
^ Based on all end-use sectors, including residential.

21. Conclusions
• Several factors are driving the development of energy demands, including
the electrification of end-use sectors and international energy prices, along
with climate and energy security policy
• Final energy demand declines 0.35–0.88% per annum under the set of
business as usual (BAU) scenarios and 1.1–1.2% per annum in the low
carbon and security scenarios
• In the BAU scenario CO2 emissions are reduced by 30%, and additional
abatement is required to realise a 60% emission reduction. Total CO2
emissions are reduced by 54% in the SEC scenario,
• Centralized gas generation produces additional CO2 emissions across the
scenarios. However, the electricity from these plants can substitute direct
use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors (e.g., heating and transport), resulting
in a net reduction in emissions
• The additional cost of achieving a 1.4 t-CO2 per capita is CHF 750–950 per
person in 2050
R. Kannan, H. Turton, 2014, Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) for transition
scenario analyses, Final report to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. http://www.psi.ch/eem/stem
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22. Ramachandran Kannan (kannan.ramachandran@psi.ch)
Thanks for your attention!
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