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What is the Safe Operating
Space for EU Livestock?
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_Fnd
RISE Foundation
#balancedliv...
What is the Safe Operating Space
for EU Livestock?
• RISE funded study conducted by Allan Buckwell, Elisabet
Nadeu and Ann...
• Significant milestones in the literature:
– FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow 2006
– Planetary Boundaries (Rockström 2009, S...
Benefits and negative impacts of livestock
26/03/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
Benefit Negative
1 Human nutrition a...
Adapting the idea of
a safe operating space
• Started with Rockström’s (2009) nine planetary boundaries:
– Beyond which ir...
A safe operating space for EU livestock
• De Vries (2013) suggests a SOS is a balance between
– Human needs and adverse im...
A SOS for livestock
Illustrated by considering two benefits (nutrition & pasture)
and two negatives (GHG and Ammonia)
13/0...
Quantifying the SOS boundaries
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd
Benefit or negative
impact of livestock
Boundary...
Lower boundary for nutrition
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd
#balancedlivestock
Group
of animal
products
Recomm...
Deviations from EU-28 dietary recommend. for
meat and milk, EU28 and MS, 2007-2013
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_...
Pasture utilisation
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd
#balancedlivestock
Boundary Actual vs. boundary EU-28
EU-28...
Percentage of ruminant livestock units which
could be kept to utilise permanent grasslands,
EU and MS, 2 stocking rate ass...
Climate protection
Direct, enteric fermentation &
manure management
Indirect emissions not included here
13/09/2018 www.ri...
GHG reductions required by EU and Member
States to respect Paris targets.
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
Percentage of nitrogen in excess of calculated
boundary for EU28 & 26 Member States, 2013
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu...
Lessons on the idea of SOS
1. The appropriate scale and spatial resolution for SOS boundaries is
tricky: more work on biod...
Adjustment on two fronts
1. Reduce negative impacts of livestock production
– Resource efficiency: feed, water, animal hea...
Drawing the threads together
• The challenge is immense, it concerns all: the
whole supply chain and consumers.
• The chal...
This study has concluded
• EU livestock is out of balance, it is in disequilibrium
– Consumption vs production (both produ...
The role of policy
• Re. Consumption
– Internalise the externalities of over-consumption
– If this raises livestock produc...
Recommendations food and nutrition policy
1. The EU should set up a formal inquiry to investigate
the following questions....
Recommendations food and nutrition policy
2. The change must be a citizen-led, consumer-led,
enterprise. Although it requi...
Recommendations environmental policy
4. Implement existing environmental regulations
and directives.
5. Specifically, help...
Recommendations agricultural
and research policy
6. Better target CAP Pillar 1 resources currently provided as
direct paym...
International impacts of moving
EU livestock into its SOS
• The external impacts of EU livestock production & consumption
...
Final words
• The livestock challenge has come about because of the success of
technical change in the food chain reducing...
Thank you!
13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_Fnd
rise@risefoundation.eu
@RISE_Fnd
#balancedlivestock
A digital copy o...
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What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 1 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 2 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 3 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 4 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 5 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 6 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 7 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 8 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 9 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 10 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 11 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 12 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 13 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 14 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 15 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 16 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 17 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 18 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 19 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 20 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 21 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 22 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 23 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 24 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 25 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 26 What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell Slide 27
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What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell

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Presentation of the Rise foundation report "What is the safe operating space for EU livestock"

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What is the safe operating space for eu livestock - Allan Buckwell

  1. 1. What is the Safe Operating Space for EU Livestock? 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_Fnd RISE Foundation #balancedlivestock IEEP presentation 1 October2018
  2. 2. What is the Safe Operating Space for EU Livestock? • RISE funded study conducted by Allan Buckwell, Elisabet Nadeu and Annabelle Williams with special help from Erik Mathijs and Natalia Brzezina (KU Leuven), and invaluable comments from our advisory panel: – Tim Benton Henk Westhoek – Krijn Poppe Alberto Bernués – and from those attending our workshop in March 2018 • Context: positive & negative contributions of livestock • Is there a Safe Operating Space for livestock? • Policies and recommendations to move into the SOS 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  3. 3. • Significant milestones in the literature: – FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow 2006 – Planetary Boundaries (Rockström 2009, Steffen 2015) – N, P: European Nitrogen Assessment (Sutton 2011), Nitrogen on the Table (Westhoek 2015), RISE Nutrient report (2016) • The tone is overwhelmingly critical; substantial adjustments suggested; understandable reaction from the sizable livestock ag & food sector • Our central idea is the need to rebalance livestock in the EU: – For millenia crop & animal agriculture were balanced, low pressure – For 150 years: Popn. & Econ growth + technical change ⇒ imbalance – All expectations are the imbalance will grow – this is unsustainable – Where does the balance lie? How can we move there? • Can we find a framework to engage constructive debate and action? 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd Context #balancedlivestock
  4. 4. Benefits and negative impacts of livestock 26/03/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd Benefit Negative 1 Human nutrition and health Hi quality nutrients Overconsumption 2 Utilisation of pastures & by-products Cultural landscape Over-grazing 3 Culture and livelihoods We enjoy it! Provides jobs 4 Climate harm GHG emissions 5 Nutrient cycles Manure Agro-Eco Water & air pollution 6 Biodiversity HNV systems Simplification & specialisation 7 Land use and soil degradation Pressure for feed 8 AMR and Zoonoses Dangers for human health 9 Animal welfare Looking after animals Treatment, housing, transport
  5. 5. Adapting the idea of a safe operating space • Started with Rockström’s (2009) nine planetary boundaries: – Beyond which irreversible, non-linear, catastrophic change – Within which is a safe operating space • 7 quantified: 3 exceeded: climate, biodiversity loss, N disruption • Big response: powerful concept: strong communication tool. • Are the boundaries really global? Maybe only 3, for others global boundary = sum of regional • Treated as independent – yet they interact • We try to build a SOS: – for a region - EU, – for a sector – livestock 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  6. 6. A safe operating space for EU livestock • De Vries (2013) suggests a SOS is a balance between – Human needs and adverse impacts – A social floor and an environmental ceiling • For EU livestock: two steps to define the SOS: – Select variables indicating benefits of livestock & their negative impacts treated independently – Determine an objective boundary condition for each variable • Use data on the benefit variables to quantify the lower bound, of livestock to provide the health, cultural and social needs • Use data on the negative variables to quantify the upper bound , with regard to environment, health & animal welfare. • We try to do this at EU or Member State level initially to explore the idea, then consider interactions 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  7. 7. A SOS for livestock Illustrated by considering two benefits (nutrition & pasture) and two negatives (GHG and Ammonia) 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock Human nutrition
  8. 8. Quantifying the SOS boundaries 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd Benefit or negative impact of livestock Boundary definition Current values Human nutrition & health The recommended diet Current consumption Utilisation of pastures Minimal number of ruminants needed to graze permanent pastures (preserv. habitats) at sustainable stocking rates Current number of ruminant livestock Climate harm Achievement of the Paris agreement emission reduction targets. Direct GHG emissions from livestock Nutrient cycles Downscaled planetary boundary Total N fixation (biological + fertiliser) #balancedlivestock
  9. 9. Lower boundary for nutrition 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock Group of animal products Recommendations averaged for EU-28 Meat 450 g per week Milk and milk products 555 g per day Eggs 3 eggs per week Boundary Actual vs. boundary EU-28 45% 95%
  10. 10. Deviations from EU-28 dietary recommend. for meat and milk, EU28 and MS, 2007-2013 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  11. 11. Pasture utilisation 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock Boundary Actual vs. boundary EU-28 EU-28 ruminant livestock population (million)Scenario Million LSU Current 74 1 LSU/ha 49 0,5 LSU/ha 24
  12. 12. Percentage of ruminant livestock units which could be kept to utilise permanent grasslands, EU and MS, 2 stocking rate assumptions. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  13. 13. Climate protection Direct, enteric fermentation & manure management Indirect emissions not included here 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1993 2003 2013 2015 2030 2050 Cattle Sheep Pigs Other Target Mt CO2 equiv. -21% -74% Boundary GHG reduction targets (Paris Climate Agreement) 2030  -40 % 2040  -60% 2050  -80% Actual vs. Boundary EU-28
  14. 14. GHG reductions required by EU and Member States to respect Paris targets. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  15. 15. Percentage of nitrogen in excess of calculated boundary for EU28 & 26 Member States, 2013 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  16. 16. Lessons on the idea of SOS 1. The appropriate scale and spatial resolution for SOS boundaries is tricky: more work on biodiversity, soils, AMR and animal welfare 2. Note: strictly, none of the positive contributions are absolutes. The lower boundaries reflect long-standing cultural preferences. • Key conclusions from our results: – EU livestock production & consumption are not in a SOS – Consumption & production are much greater than the lower SOS boundaries for diets & pasture utilisation – There are large exceedances for upper boundaries of GHG & nutrient flows, on average in the EU-28 reductions up to 60% – Lower boundaries may imply greater production than allowed to comply with upper boundaries. This implies uncomfortable choices for society. Upper environmental limits should take precedence over the cultural lower boundaries? 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  17. 17. Adjustment on two fronts 1. Reduce negative impacts of livestock production – Resource efficiency: feed, water, animal health and welfare – Manure management, processing and reuse – Reducing density and concentration of livestock – Large scope for innovation in: breeding, nutrition, housing, pollution, waste capture & reuse 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock 2. Shift and reduce consumption of livestock products - Changing the species balance of consumption - Substituting alternative animal protein: insect, algal, cultured - Changing diets to less protein and plant based protein The indications are that route 1 alone is not sufficient. Acting on current consumption is unavoidable.
  18. 18. Drawing the threads together • The challenge is immense, it concerns all: the whole supply chain and consumers. • The challenge is complex, not all the interactions are well understood. • The message that livestock are not in a SOS is not yet accepted at high political level in EU. • The issue has long been debated in scientific and NGO circles, a ‘Blue Planet’ jolt is needed. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  19. 19. This study has concluded • EU livestock is out of balance, it is in disequilibrium – Consumption vs production (both products and feed) – Consumption and health – Production and the environment – Ruminants and monogastrics – Crops and animals – Spatial distribution • To move into the Safe Operating Space, we need to bring about adjustments by all parties – Behavioural change by consumers – Knowledge intensive change by producers • First we need top-level acknowledgement that change is necessary • Much research is needed to identify the trade-offs ahead. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  20. 20. The role of policy • Re. Consumption – Internalise the externalities of over-consumption – If this raises livestock product prices this is part of the solution – Key is to influence the social discourse; fewer meat meals, smaller meat portions, flexitarians – Soft measures: public campaigns, environment and health messages – Harder measures: taxes, subsidies, procurement and regulation, • Re. Production: – Political acknowledgement of need to move livestock into its SOS – Research to identify the SOS for beef, pork, chicken, milk, eggs – Use available public assistance to help farmers adjust: investment, production systems and knowledge 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  21. 21. Recommendations food and nutrition policy 1. The EU should set up a formal inquiry to investigate the following questions. – Where is the safe operating space for EU livestock? – What adjustments in production and consumption are necessary to get into it? – What policy measures would be required to propel these adjustments? – What would be the impacts on health, environment and the economy of these changes? 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  22. 22. Recommendations food and nutrition policy 2. The change must be a citizen-led, consumer-led, enterprise. Although it requires action by both consumers and producers the transition required will only occur if driven by consumers. This will not happen spontaneously but only if Government takes strong action to spur the necessary changes. 3. A mandated output of the proposed inquiry should therefore be a suggested set of policy proposals which include measures to discourage consumption of livestock products harmful to health and environment and to encourage consumption and production beneficial to health and environment. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  23. 23. Recommendations environmental policy 4. Implement existing environmental regulations and directives. 5. Specifically, help farmers better manage the environment on their farms by assisting establishment of better farm-level environmental performance indicators, benchmarks and plans for GHG emissions, nutrients and biodiversity. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  24. 24. Recommendations agricultural and research policy 6. Better target CAP Pillar 1 resources currently provided as direct payments, by deploying them to stimulate and enable structural changes required to help the livestock sector make the transition to a SOS. 7. An important task within the proposed inquiry is to develop a better conceptualisation and measurement of the ceilings or upper boundaries of the safe operating space especially with respect to nutrient flows and biodiversity. 8. It is essential that GHG emission factors for livestock are regularly updated to reflect the expected, and necessary systematic improvements in resource efficiency. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  25. 25. International impacts of moving EU livestock into its SOS • The external impacts of EU livestock production & consumption • If EU consumption falls more than production, are greater exports a concern? • If EU production falls more than consumption: are greater imports a concern? • Three reactions to such concerns: – If consumption & production are unsustainable the quicker we acknowledge and act the better. This applies to all countries. – Decisions must be based on trusted quantification of the marginal environmental impacts of production switches between countries – International agreement is ultimately the safeguard of global commons, climate and biodiversity 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_fnd #balancedlivestock
  26. 26. Final words • The livestock challenge has come about because of the success of technical change in the food chain reducing the real price of food to the extent that we are consuming more than is good for our health and the environment. Because of their inherent inefficiency and leakiness, livestock are a special problem. This is an attack on the negative health and environmental effect of livestock, not farm animals per se. • The EU should be confident that if it takes the lead in defining and moving to a safe operating space for livestock this can help set the standards and procedures which others will follow. 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu #RISE_fnd
  27. 27. Thank you! 13/09/2018 www.risefoundation.eu @RISE_Fnd rise@risefoundation.eu @RISE_Fnd #balancedlivestock A digital copy of the report is available from: www.risefoundation.eu/publications

Presentation of the Rise foundation report "What is the safe operating space for EU livestock"

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