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Statistics on Public
Expenditures for
Economic
Development
Sam Benin
Nilam Prasai
Yifei Liu
19 May 2016
Outline
• Introduction and analytical content (Sam)
o History, data sources & compilation, description
o Global trends in ...
Why SPEED?
• Public expenditure (PE) is a powerful instrument for
achieving sustainable growth, poverty reduction,
and tra...
Brief history and funding
• Database work
o Shenggen Fan and Anuja Saurkar
o Bing Yu and Sangeetha Malaiyandi; and Eduardo...
SPEED data sources
• Primary source: IMF Government Financial
Statistics (GFS) Yearbooks
• Supplemental sources
o IMF Stat...
Data compilation (3 main issues)
1. Missing data points within series—interpolation
o Single point: simple average of non-...
Overall consistency checks
1. Visual inspection using graphs to identify
unrealistic deviations from trend or outliers
2. ...
What’s in the latest (2015) database?
• 147 countries from 1980 to 2012
o Organized into 8 regions: East Asia and Pacific ...
See details in
SPEED Manual
Summary of data—global trends I
0
20
40
60
80
100
EAP ECA HI
Europe
Other HI LAC MENA SA SSA
Agriculture Education
Health ...
Summary of data—global trends II
1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2012
Rank Share (%) Rank Share (%) Rank Share (%)
EAP 4 8.9 5 6....
Summary of data—global trends III
-10
0
10
20
Growth rate (%)
0
50
100
150
200
per capita (2005 PPP$)
0
5
10
% of total ex...
Full story of global and regional trends in:
Third-party analysis (32 publications)—I
Type # Institutions
Journal
articles
11 American Political Science ReviewA*, Agri...
Third-party analysis—II
• Country/regional coverage
o Country specific (2—Malawi and Ethiopia)
o Regional, cross-country c...
Third-party analysis—findings
• Relationship between spending and growth and productivity
o Thapa et al (2015): increase a...
New directions of SPEED to consider
• Disaggregation by economic use
o Compensation of employees, use of goods and service...
Functions (COFOG)
701. Gen. Pub. Services
702. Defense
703. Pub. Order & Safety
704. Economic Affairs
705. Environ Protect...
Prochain SlideShare
Chargement dans…5
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Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)

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DSGD Brown Bag Seminar on "Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)" presented by: Samuel Benin

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Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)

  1. 1. Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development Sam Benin Nilam Prasai Yifei Liu 19 May 2016
  2. 2. Outline • Introduction and analytical content (Sam) o History, data sources & compilation, description o Global trends in public expenditures o Findings from third-party analysis • Access and interactive tool (Nilam) o Archiving and how to download data o Data visualization tool • Reaching clients (Yifei) o Webpage visits and data download statistics o Promotion
  3. 3. Why SPEED? • Public expenditure (PE) is a powerful instrument for achieving sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and transformation o Need to understand linkages between different types of PE and development for better allocation of resources o Calls for reliable data on use of public resources • SPEED database developed to provide policymakers, researchers, etc. with the most comprehensive PE information o Officially launched in 2010 o Two updates: 2013 and 2015
  4. 4. Brief history and funding • Database work o Shenggen Fan and Anuja Saurkar o Bing Yu and Sangeetha Malaiyandi; and Eduardo Magalhaes • Support o CKM (Luz Marina Alvare and Nilam Prasai) o Several colleagues (Xinshen Diao, Tewodaj Mogues, Frances Cossar, Dario Debowicz, Inigo Verduzco Gallo, Athur Mabiso, Edina Metili Mwangi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Gissele Gajate Garrido, Yifei Liu, Alvina Erman) • Funding o Initial stages funded by USAID via its support to the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) programs in Africa and Asia o More recently, by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
  5. 5. SPEED data sources • Primary source: IMF Government Financial Statistics (GFS) Yearbooks • Supplemental sources o IMF Statistical Appendices and Selected Issues o World Bank Public Expenditure Reviews o International and multilateral organizations (e.g. West Africa Central Bank, Eurostat) o National sources—e.g. budget documents and statistical abstracts  Downloaded from websites (ministry of finance, statistics bureau, accountant general’s office, central bank) • Based on UN Classification of the Functions of Government (general government expenditure)
  6. 6. Data compilation (3 main issues) 1. Missing data points within series—interpolation o Single point: simple average of non-missing points o Multiple consecutive points: linear trend between non- missing points 2. Missing data points at the beginning or end of the series—extrapolation o Five-year average growth rate of non-missing points to extend series backward or forward 3. Competing data points from multiple sources and consistency of filled data points—compare growth rates and shares o Missing data from any one source are sometimes replaced by corresponding non-missing data from other sources— complicated with non-missing data from multiples sources o Checking that filled data for subcomponents of total expenditure add up to the actual or non-missing total value
  7. 7. Overall consistency checks 1. Visual inspection using graphs to identify unrealistic deviations from trend or outliers 2. Sum of parts to check that the sum of sector expenditures is smaller than the total expenditure 3. Exclusion of negative expenditure values as a result of certain accounting procedures (e.g. sale of a nonfinancial asset particularly for countries in Europe) 4. Detailed source matching by documenting the source or method used to obtain each data point
  8. 8. What’s in the latest (2015) database? • 147 countries from 1980 to 2012 o Organized into 8 regions: East Asia and Pacific (EAP), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Middle East and North America (MENA), South Asia (SA), Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), Other Europe, and High Income (HI) • 9 sectors o Agriculture, defense, education, fuel and energy, health, mining, social protection, and transport & communication (separately and combined) • Several indicators o Expenditure in constant 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars (PPP$) and constant 2005 US$ o Percentage of sector expenditure in total expenditure o For agriculture, percentage of expenditure in agGDP o Percentage of total expenditure to total GDP
  9. 9. See details in SPEED Manual
  10. 10. Summary of data—global trends I 0 20 40 60 80 100 EAP ECA HI Europe Other HI LAC MENA SA SSA Agriculture Education Health Defense Transport & communication Social protection Other Annual average agricultural expenditure (% total expenditure, 1980-2012) • Social protection attracted the largest share in the developed regions (HI Europe and Other Europe) and in ECA and LAC • Education was top (10-17%) in other developing regions, except in MENA where defense was top spender (17%). • Infrastructure and agriculture attracted the least shares (3-7%)
  11. 11. Summary of data—global trends II 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2012 Rank Share (%) Rank Share (%) Rank Share (%) EAP 4 8.9 5 6.2 6 4.6 ECA - - 5 4.1 6 3.9 HI Europe 6 4.1 6 3.1 6 1.8 Other HI 5 3.3 6 2.6 6 2.0 LAC 6 4.1 6 3.7 6 2.2 MENA 6 4.1 5 3.2 6 2.5 SA 3 9.0 4 6.6 5 5.1 SSA 4 7.4 6 3.5 6 3.0 Rank is from 1 to 6, with 1 being the first or top rank. Rank and share of agricultural expenditure share in total expenditure, 1980-2012 Rank and share of agriculture expenditure got worse over time
  12. 12. Summary of data—global trends III -10 0 10 20 Growth rate (%) 0 50 100 150 200 per capita (2005 PPP$) 0 5 10 % of total expenditure 0 10 20 30 % of agricultural value added Annual average agricultural expenditure, 1980-2012
  13. 13. Full story of global and regional trends in:
  14. 14. Third-party analysis (32 publications)—I Type # Institutions Journal articles 11 American Political Science ReviewA*, Agricultural EconomicsA, World DevelopmentA, Food and Nutrition BulletinB, Journal of Technology Management and Technopreneurship, Corporate Ownership and Control, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of International Finance Studies, Nepalese Journal of Agricultural Economics Reports 11 World Bank, European Union, African Development Bank, Climate Policy Initiative, Inter-American Development Bank, FAO, UNDESA, OECD DPs/BPs 7 Dissert. / Thesis 3 Vilnius, ISM - University of Management and Economics, Lund University, Addis Ababa University
  15. 15. Third-party analysis—II • Country/regional coverage o Country specific (2—Malawi and Ethiopia) o Regional, cross-country comparisons: Latin America (4), Africa (8), South Asia (2), low and middle income countries (13) • Thematic focus o Agriculture (17), social protection (3), cross-sectoral (5) • Analytical issues o Relationship between government spending and growth and productivity (3) o Effect on or controlling for government spending (3) o Composition of spending (1)
  16. 16. Third-party analysis—findings • Relationship between spending and growth and productivity o Thapa et al (2015): increase agricultural expenditure or investment accelerate agricultural and total GDP growth and, consequently, achieving MDG1— Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia, and Lao PDR o Shittu et al. (2014): strong/positive influence of public agricultural expenditure (PAE) on productivity in SSA; increase in annual PAE by US$3,000/worker (25x present level) needed to raise agTFP by 1% o Musaba et al (2013): significant positive effects of agricultural and defense expenditure on economic growth. Expenditures on other sectors were negatively related to economic growth • Effects on government spending o Doyle (2015): effect of remittances on government spending on social protection is negative (used three different measurements of government social spending) o Sánchez, et al (2015): spending on social protection (unlike social sector) increased steadily in low-income countries irrespective of the recent global financial crisis o Ceriani et al (2011): social protection spending is negatively related to income distribution (gini) • Composition of spending: o Lowder et al (2012): on-farm investments in agricultural capital are more than 4x the size of government spending in agriculture in low and middle income countries
  17. 17. New directions of SPEED to consider • Disaggregation by economic use o Compensation of employees, use of goods and services, consumption of fixed capital, interest, subsidies, grants, social benefit, other • Disaggregation of agriculture expenditure by sub- function o Research (reconcile with ASTI), extension, irrigation, marketing infrastructure, farm support, etc. • Other sectors, identify key sub-functions for poverty and nutrition (other?), e.g.: o Expenditure in rural areas for all sectors o Primary education and health care o School feeding in education sector
  18. 18. Functions (COFOG) 701. Gen. Pub. Services 702. Defense 703. Pub. Order & Safety 704. Economic Affairs 705. Environ Protection 706. Housing & Community Amenities 707. Health 708. Rec., Culture, & Rel. 709. Education 710. Social Protection Economic classification 21. Compensation of employees 22. Use of goods and services 23. Consumption of fixed capital 24. Interest 25. Subsidies 26. Grants 27. Social benefits 28. Other Agricultural sub-sector Crops Livestock Forestry Fishery Agricultural sub-functions Extension Research Irrigation Land management Market infrastructure Farm support Policy, planning, M&E Regulation, licensing Statistics … Level Central State/Region Local/District … Policy objective Food security Productivity/Growth … Target Demography Geography … Planning/Execution Budget Expenditure Source of financing Domestic (loan, tax) External (loan, grant) Different levels of disaggregation

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