Laura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyan and Sheila Convery on "National Borders and Transport Corridors in Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case study"

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National Borders and Transport Corridors in
Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case study
Laura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyan
and Sheila Convery

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TRANSPORT CORRIDORS and their
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ROLE:
Development of transport corridors a result of
urbanization.
ROLE:
› Link the cities; Link urban and rural areas
› Extensions of cities' functionality
› Improving the structure and functionality of the main
cities;
› Increase the economic importance of towns that exist
along the axis;
› Powerful stimulant for new development along the line.

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BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT
CORRIDORS
› IMPROVE CONNECTION
› DEVELOP JOINT USE OF INFRASTRUCTURE
› FACILITIES & COMFORT
› ECONOMIC
› COOPERATION
› IMPROVE MOBILITY
› IMPROVE COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
› POLITICAL

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What about the ENVIRONMENT?
› NEW residential areas, commercial and industrial
activities URBAN SPRAWL ... Loss of agricultural
land, structural changes (e.g. disappearance of open
space), permanent grassland destruction;
› Transport corridors creates the “barrier creation” effect
degradeting the ecological functions of natural
habitats LAND FRAGMENTATION, LOSS of
BIODIVERSITY!
› Transport corridors are leading to an increase of traffic
and emission of CO2 NATURAL HAZARDS EVENTS
and CLIMATE CHANGE!

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Just few questions
› What is the future accessibility of Europe?
› What is the impact on the economy?
› What is its impact on the European land use changes
and consequently the implicit effects on pollution and
climate change?

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Few examples of transport corridors:
52 cross-border cooperation
programmes
- Rotterdam – Lille is an area of long
standing cooperation between FR, BE and NL.
- Dublin – Belfast, cooperation became
possible in the past decade with the resolution
of political problems.
- Dresden – Prague is an area that was
part of Eastern block and underwent drastic
changes after Berlin wall collaps.
- Fehmern Bridge links Southern islands of
DK to Northern of DE, enhancing the edge/local
Source:http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/
development
atlas2007/eu/crossborder/index_en.htm

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Greater Dublin Region Belfast
and
Dublin – Belfast Transport 160 km
Corridor
Dublin

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Stakeholders meeting
Analysing the area
Identify trends, constraints and issues
Identify driving forces
Building scenarios WHAT IF?
- Balancing of advantages and burdens within
the region which offers synergy effects
- Role of Strategic Planning Guidelines
Modelling, Translating the storylines into
Quantitative scenarios

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What IF?
SCENARIOs : BU, CD, MD, R
Key drivers Narrative of scenario
Population Birth rate, Immigration/Out-migration, Ageing
population, etc.
Socio-Economic Trends GDP, Sectorial developments, Economic
competitiveness, Growth and investment capacity,
Regulatory and fiscal measures on location decision
making, Drivers influencing markets/sub-markets,
Research and innovation, Technology, etc.
Urbanization/Spatial Polycentric, Growth and sprawl, Urban-region, Small-
Planning scale development, etc.
Transport and Transportation, Cross border networks, Accessibility,
Infrastructure Provision Trans-European Transport Networks, etc.
Policy Framework, Policies, Environmental sustainability, Climate
’Shock’ Clues and change, Natural hazards, Economic competitiveness,
Overall Trends growth and investment capacity, etc.

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The work cycle between scientists and TITLE
stakeholders/policy-makers

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Why is MOLAND Useful?
› A range of what-if scenarios can be explored
› A variety of spatial planning policies can be
assessed
› The environmental impacts of different land-use
policies can be quantified
› Provide robust framework for comparing,
discussing and visualizing a variety of spatial
planning policies

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How the model works?
Accessibility
The neighbourhood effect
Zoning status
Land use
Suitability
• Population
• Income
• Production
• Employment Future territorial scenario
Socio-economic data

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Neighbourhood effect
• A circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells
is applied (radius eight pixels)
• The effect in the central cell is calculated in a
distance-decay way
1 cell = 200 x 200 m

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Regional level

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Developing and using the model
PAST NOW FUTURE
Known history Unknown future
Land Use Land Use Land Use
Facts on: Observed / Facts on: Scenarios / Scenarios on:
Suitability Historical Suitability Forecasts on Suitability
Zoning Changes Zoning Spatial Claims Zoning
Accessibility Accessibility Accessibility
Population Population Population
Jobs Jobs Jobs
Calibration Exploration
Validation

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GDR: 2006-2026

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Indicators: urban development and loss of
natural areas
Urban development
Urban areas vs. Natural areas Urban Scenarios (%)
BU CD MD R
Total urban areas in GDR 86.2 89.2 89.3 51.8
Loss of total natural areas in GDR -5.6 -5.8 -5.8 -3.4
Total urban areas in Dublin Co. 41.8 53.4 45.6 20.8
Loss of natural areas in Dublin Co. -21.1 -26.9 -23 -10.5

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Indicator: Urban growth and sprawl TITLE
Residential discontinous sparse class
Growth by Scenarios (%)
Counties BU CD MD R
Louth 216.5 223.4 218.0 173.5
Meath 267.9 253.0 269.4 207.2
Dublin 141.8 153.4 145.6 120.8
Kildare 243.7 234.8 246.8 191.1
Wicklow 256.5 241.2 259.0 203.1

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Urban Development
Tab. 3 – Change in Services land use from
2006 to 2026 (%)
Counties BU CD MD R
Louth 129 194 129 0
Meath 144 278 167 44
Dublin 17 62 28 17 Tab. 1 – Change in Industrial land use
Kildare 115 231 152 40 from 2006 to 2026 (%)
Wicklow 100 300 190 10 Counties BU CD MD R
Louth 122 154 122 52
Tab. 2 – Change in Commercial land use Meath 98 201 97 49
from 2006 to 2026 (%) Dublin 4 52 23 12
Counties BU CD MD R Kildare 100 216 109 52
Louth 118 262 148 0 Wicklow 120 182 119 57
Meath 121 246 149 10
Dublin 24 66 34 -9
Kildare 119 237 143 22
Wicklow 95 215 121 -3

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Conclusions:
• Transport corridor is an important key driver for NEW
urban development; Dublin-Belfast corridor can be
projected as a key to the island’s future economic
recovery.
• How to manage the corridor and deliver a successful,
sensitive and suitable outcome?
Sensitive approach to the spatial planning; Integrated
approach to land use planning and infrastructure;
Policies; Integrated strategic management – economic
growth points, residential settlements, rural areas.
• Using scenarios and indicators is a way to evaluate
future land use development and offer useful support to
stakeholders/policy-makers; contribution to European
territorial policy.

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Thank you!!