Impact of climate change on bicycle counts. Presentation by Dr Zia Wadud. Given at Cycle City Leeds event, 1st May 2014. www.landor.co.uk/cyclecityleeds/programme.php www.its.leeds.ac.uk/people/z.wadud

1. School of something
FACULTY OF OTHER
Impact of climate change on
bicycle counts
Zia Wadud, PhD DIC
University Research Fellow
Centre for Integrated Energy Research
Institute for Transport Studies, and
School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering

2. What are the plausible ranges of changes in
hourly/daily bicycle use due to climate change?
Objectives
What would be bicycle flow today, if we
had the changed climate of the future?

3. Modelling framework
Econometric Model Simulation
Cycle
counts
Weather
elements
Other
factors
Count
Model
Projected
Count
Others
constant
Projected
weather
Count
changes
Baseline
counts
100UKCPWeather
Simulations
29TfL Hourly
Counters
Rain
Temp
Wind
Sunshine
Humidity
Snow
Income,Employment,
Busfare,Congestion
charge,School holidays,
Strike, Bike infrastructure
2009
2011

4. 0
1
2
3
4
5
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hourlyintercept
Starttimeforthehouroftheday
99 101 103 140
141 173 192 194
195 200 501 508
510 518 520 526
528 532 534 536
538 540 542 548
550 551 98 102
170
Bothpeaks
Morning
peak
Eveningpeak
Result: Count Model: Hourly and Daily Variations
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri
Dayofweekintercept
Dayofweek
98 99 101 102 103
140 141 170 173 192
194 195 200 501 508
510 518 520 526 528
532 534 536 538 540
542 548 550 551

5. Rain: Reduces flow; clear non-linear impact
Temperature: Increases, then reduces flow after
threshold temp.
Wind: Reduces flow, non-linear impact
Snow: Reduces flow, large impact
Sunshine hours: Increases flow
Humidity: Reduces flow
Impact on weekend/leisure cycling generally larger
Result: Count Model: Weather Effects Summary

6. Result: Climate Impact: Distribution of Annual Changes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Frequency
% change in annual average hourly flows (2011 baseline)
2041 vs. 2011

7. Result: Climate Impact: Seasonal Impacts Summary
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
%changesinaveragehourlyflows
All days
Weekdays
Weekends
ΔTemp.
ΔRain

8. Substantial, sometimes non-linear weather effects on cycling
Net climate change effects on cycling positive, but marginal
Strong seasonal effects: Substantial increases in summer
Conclusions

9. Thank you
z.wadud@leeds.ac.uk
Full paper ‘cycling in a changed climate’ available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314000027
Picture references:
http://abc.ccracinginc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Cycling-Rain-Umbrella.jpg
http://cdn2-
b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/81/95/1362606758_4667_cycling%20in%20rain.jpg?ito
k=DBsjhqJL
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/pictures/2011/6/28/1309268182477/Clamping-your-style-...-t-007.jpg
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65399000/jpg/_65399168_postman_sent_by_nick_todd_surrey.jpg
http://img.rasset.ie/00059b93-642.jpg
http://columbian.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2013/07/19/688178_exercise_in_heat_134.jpg
https://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/4215944778/

10. Result: Count Model
Weather parameters Weekday Weekend Other parameters Weekday Weekend
RAIN 0-1mm -0.048 -0.034 HourlyWage Rate -0.022 0.043
RAIN 1-2mm -0.116 -0.114 Unemployment Rate 0.018 0.018
RAIN 2-3mm -0.090 -0.176 Bus Fare 0.107 0.177
RAIN >3mm -0.084 -0.155 CONGESTION CHARGE 0.096 0.186
LAGRAIN (rain in prev. hour) -0.115 -0.148 INFRASTRUCTURE (Bike share,
bicyclesuperhighway)
0.031 0.039
TEMPERATURE <(-5°c) -0.480 -0.365
TEMPERATURE (-5)-0°c -0.355 -0.480 STRIKE 0.166 -0.313
TEMPERATURE 0-5°c -0.178 -0.345 SCHOOL HOLIDAY -0.126 -0.103
TEMPERATURE 5-10°c -0.091 -0.206 ΣMONTH (Dummies for months)
TEMPERATURE 10-15°c -0.038 -0.077 ΣCOUNTER (Dummies for counter
locations)TEMPERATURE 20-25°c 0.032 0.044
TEMPERATURE >25°c 0.023 0.039 ΣCOUNTER×HOUR (Interaction of
COUNTERand time of the day)
See Fig.
belowWIND 5-10 knots -0.011 -0.021
WIND 10-15knots -0.047 -0.105 ΣCOUNTER×DAY (Interaction of
COUNTERand days of the week)
See Fig.
belowWIND 15-20knots -0.091 -0.167
WIND >20 knots -0.160 -0.202
SNOW -0.404 -0.401 N 449,064 200,246
Relative Humidity -0.182 -0.456
Sunshine Hours 0.040 0.059