From the IMF Spring Meetings... it's the World in 60 Seconds.
Brexit: Have the odds gone up?
Yes they have. Panama Papers, Europe getting worse; Brexit odds continue to go up and up and up. We’re close to a coin-flip right now, and that’s really bad for the British economy.
Panama Papers: Is David Cameron in trouble?
Relatedly, yeah he certainly is. Not that he’s going to lose the premiership, but if he loses the Brexit referendum in part because of the Panama Papers—which he hasn’t handled very well—well, then Boris Johnson could be the next prime minister. Did I just say that? Yes I did. It’ll be amusing. Not good for Britain.
Brazil: Can Temer govern?
The vice-president. Yeah, I mean everyday it looks to me like we’re closer and closer to Dilma Rousseff being impeached. And when that happens, Temer will be there. He’ll have a short honeymoon, then he’ll be troubled with investigations. The markets will do well for a bit.
India: Has Modi run out of steam?
Are you kidding me? He’s been in for like just about a year. I mean, this guy is by far the best leader India could possibly dream of. The country is very decentralized, it’s very bureaucratic, but he’s clearly doing a better job than anyone had imagined that someone would do before he got in.
Refugees: Can Obama do more?
Real question is: could Obama do less? I think the answer is: it’s hard to imagine that. Except we’ll see what happens with the next president in 2017. On balance, I would say certainly yes.
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