This document summarizes a presentation on developing scenarios for urban futures. It discusses different types of scenario analysis including departures, destinations, and success scenarios. Departures analyze the consequences of uncertain events, destinations examine how futures could be realized given drivers, and success scenarios envision a desirable future. Methods for developing scenarios like expert groups, surveys, and workshops are presented. The document concludes by summarizing a scenario planning workshop for Greater Manchester that identified drivers, current issues, visions of success, and potential actions across sectors like environment, economy and governance.

1. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
Scenarios and Urban
Futures
Ian Miles
Professor of Technological Innovation & Social Change
Centre for Service Research & MIoIR
Manchester Business School

2. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Working Definition of Scenario
• Systematic, explicit account of
possible future (of some object of attention).
• May emphasise more or less the Future
State or the Future History that results in this.
• Scenarios differentiated from Profiles and
Vignettes.
Discussed in various locations, e.g. R Phaal and I Miles, 2009, Practice on
Roadmapping, Prague, Technology Center of the Academy of Sciences ASCR,
for UNIDO; ISBN 978-80-252-0109-1 online most recently at
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235217859_Practice_on_Roadmapping/fil
e/9fcfd5107a3e69a63a.pdf?ev=pub_ext_doc_dl&docViewer=true

3. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR What do we want scenarios for?
Policy insight: Explore possibilities, assumptions,
alternatives that should be considered when
strategies are developed
Knowledge development: Sharing our own
models of the issues and integrating at least some
elements of these – Process benefits of scenario
building as structuring conversations, dialogues.
Research tool: Developing a tool for interviews
and subsequent examination of specific topics,
regions, sectors
Presentation: Developing frameworks for
communication and presentation of the study
results

4. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Scenarios about what?
About some “object of focus”- OOF – a domain
or system that we wish to study (usually in order
to influence or steer) – like a city.
Often the OOF – its boundaries, its key features
- is is poorly defined at the outset, and may not
even be very meaningfully understood as a
system: so some new drawing of boundaries of
study may be helpful.
Scenario processes help build and share
models of the system, its dynamic processes,
and possible evolution.

5. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Developing Scenarios
“Genius” methods; informal (SF) and
formal (interviews)
Expert Groups
Surveys: viewpoints in population (can be
clustered)
Models: shifting model parameters, or
assumptions about relationships
Gaming
Scenario Workshops

6. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
Three Broad Methods
in Scenario Analysis
Most common for Multiple Scenario Analysis:
Departure: asking What if? - Exploratory,
Outward, Driver or Event –based
Destination: asking How Come? -
Normative, Inward, Profile or Archetype –
based
Single Scenario Analysis:
Desire: asking What and How? -
Normative, Aspirational, Success
Departures
Destinations
Destination

7. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Departures
What if these forces continue to operate? this or
that uncertain event occurs in the future?
Typically use STEEPV or similar; identify critically
important drivers, and examine consequences of (a)
continued operation of relatively predictable drivers
(b) alternative outcomes for less predictable drivers.
Results in 2*2 matrix
Other approaches possible (e.g. scenarios per driver)
Develop Scenarios: storylines, how drivers operate
and evolve, what outcome looks like.
Departures

8. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR GM multiple scenarios
Public /
community &
ecological
values
Global / macro & top-
down dynamic
Regional / local &
bottom up dynamic
Private
enterprise /
economic
values
Inspired by Foresight scenarios – conveniently described in F Berkhout and J Hertin, 2002,
"Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning
Tool", GMI newsletter at http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/pdfs/gmi37ber.pdf
UK Future of Cities Working Paper 16: ‘Future of the Urban Environment’ (Joe
Ravetz 2014).

9. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Comparative Appraisal
‘GLOBAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘LOCAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘GLOBAL COMMUNITY’ ‘LOCAL COMMUNITY’
Greater Manchester
issues
Privatized government: Airport
axis grows rapidly to global
hub. High growth, inequality
increases.
Breakup of AGMA etc: local
govt as charity fund-raiser.
Medium growth, inequality
increases.
Centralized govt (UK, EU &
global): GM is centre of
‘Northern Arc’. Medium
growth, inequality is reduced
Decentralisation all around:
new communities & lifestyles
in rural areas. Low growth /
high QOL, inequality levels.
Social, community Fragmented society, growing
tensions:
High population growth
Privatized society, retro social
models:
Medium pop. growth
Managed society: aims for
equality & integration:
Low pop. growth
Enclave society: aims for local
self-determination:
Medium pop. growth
Technology,
infrastructure
global hi-tech supply chains:
rapid ICT innovation
local low-tech supply chains:
ICT stable
global hi-tech supply chains:
rapid ICT innovation
local low-tech supply chains:
ICT stable
Economic, employment Private firms, global labour
market: High economic
growth >3%
Private firms, local labour
market:
Medium growth (2%)
Social enterprise, global
activities:
Medium growth (2%)
Social enterprise, local
activities: Low economic
growth <1%
Environment, resources ESS degradation & pollution:
Rapid climate change
exploitation & privatisation of
ESS:
Rapid climate change
conservation of ESS & public
access:
moderate climate change
Conservation of ESS with
privatisation:
moderate climate change
Policy, governance,
institutions
Corporate-driven governance:
at global level
Corporate driven governance:
at local level
Public & civil governance at
global level
Public & civil governance at
local level
Cultural, ethical Material growth, winner-takes-
all globalized culture
Material growth, winner-takes-
all local autonomy
Socio-cultural growth,
ecological stewardship
Socio-cultural growth,
ecological stewardship
Urban / spatial
development
Car-based urban sprawl, with
sealed buildings:
Counter-urbanisation
Localized rural development
with low-tech buildings: sprawl
and sub-urbanisation
Intensive large scale urban
form with sealed buildings:
Re-urbanisation
Intensive small scale urban
form, with low-tech eco-
buildings:
De-centralisation.
UK system of cities London / SE continues to grow
& dominate
Breakup of UK and break-
away from EU
balanced development of UK
regions & DAs
Local-regional agenda, with
out-migration from London
Pressures &
vulnerabilities in urban
system
Airports & other hubs are
over-used with major pollution,
urban heat island etc
growing air & water pollution
pressure from deregulation &
privatisation
Large compact cities generate
pressure & vulnerability of
infrastructure
Pressures locally contained in
enclaves
Gaps & opportunities in
the urban system
Derelict & under-used land/
resources widespread, due to
Derelict & under-used land/
resources, from deregulation
Derelict & under-used land/
resources in hinterland, due to
Derelict & under-used land/
resources in hinterland, due to

10. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Destinations
How different futures be realised?
Typically begin with analysis of critically important drivers,
and examine how far these are relatively predictable and
unpredictable; then set out a rough description of several
future states –profiles.
Destinations can be differentiated according to key
structural parameters – examine which elements of the
system are influenced by drivers, or are of major concern.
IAF approach: Three Scenario Profiles:
Alpha - α - “More than expected” (“Better”, “Faster”… etc)
Beta - β - “Less than expected” (“Worse”, “Slower”… etc)
Gamma - γ - “Different than expected” (may prompt: radical difference)
The task is to develop a plausible scenario – not utopian, not
dependent on wild cards or very unlikely events.
Destinations
Destinations
Destinations
Destinations

11. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Success Scenarios
A specific type of destination-based scenario.
Here we typically build just one scenario.
It has some similarity to the “better than
expected” scenario in the archetype approach,
but does not rely on external drivers working out
in favourable directions.
It is more of a stretch target - what desirable
future could be achieved in this domain?
Often this analysis proceeds after some multiple
scenario analysis.
Requires analysis of current state of affairs
which we are seeking to change
What is success?
What actions promote it?

12. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR GM2040+ Workshop
Economy, employment,
innovation
Environment, climate and
energy
Social and cultural issues
Built environment
Governance, policy and
democracy
STEEPV analysis:
21 drivers
Manchester Policy
documents
Four
scenarios
WORKSHOP: Plenaries and 54 Break Out Groups (Ambition Areas)
• Coverage
• Main drivers
• Where we are
• What would be success?
(where we could be if we
try)
• What actions are needed

13. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
E.g. BrOG on Environment,
climate and energy
Coverage/ main issues:
Sustainable lifestyle/community
Low carbon mobility/transport systems (location of things)
Energy – grid generation/optimising and/or reducing gas energy
demand
Low carbon economy: skills & jobs
Climate change – GM unique specificities
(opportunities & risks)
Green spaces/outdoor infrastructures
Top drivers:
Inequality
Education and skills

14. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Each BrOG
Where are we now/what would be success
(in terms of these main issues)?
How is GM currently perceived by
informed observers?
How could GM be perceived in 2040, if
sufficient effort is made?
Develop Exemplaries – concrete,
achievable, examples
World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%
World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%

15. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
Exemplaries – Group 3 – Environment & Energy
Sustainable
lifestyle
There should be no people in fuel poverty
Everyone knows 5 other people on their street (this was a comment about social isolation and a
concern to try and address that)
Everyone should know how to contact/influence their local councillor
95% skilled 18+ target
Low carbon Remove car parks for employers.
No car to work from within GM
People should not be dying on our roads
Cycle routes that are safe for kids to bike to school
Zero carbon aviation fuel programme
Zero emission transport system in GM
Energy grid No gas use anymore we need it for power. Zero heat gas energy
2 way IOT grip 80% penetration
10 Twh local generation
Low carbon
economy
skills/jobs
Low carbon skills embedded in schools with challenge and competitions to de-carbonise GM
To be biggest LCEGS sector in UK
X% GM companies signed up to and supporting supply chains on circular (type) economy
Circular
economy
Waste free design and business network for sharing open-innovation/resources
Dematerialisation local goods purchase rank
Climate
change GM
unique
specificities
GM planning policies and exemplar buildings that are for GM adaptation
Everyone knows how climate and weather can affect them and their family/business and has plans to
deal with it
Minimum Heat/float incidents
Planned support for extinct locations
Green spaces Everyone should see a flash of the living biosphere outside their window. Green space increase by
33%
X km per green space resident park space

16. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Success Scenario Analysis
Bring together groups to discuss perceptions,
ambitions.
Seek to achieve more detailed definition of nature
of success, reconcile possible contradictions.
(when time permits, also examine:
How might we know if this scenario is emerging?
What would be leading indicators?
What should we be monitoring?)
Carousel or other approach to generate
suggestions for actions (non-voluntaristic) required
from different stakeholders.
Discussion/prioritisation of actions.

17. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Stakeholders/Actions
Government
National
AGMA/regional
Other
Public Services
Third Sector
Communities
Infrastructure and Services:
Utilities
Media and Communications
Housing and Construction
Private Sector
Local/SMEs
Financial institutions
Transnational firms
Knowledge & Skills
Primary & secondary
Vocational
HEIs
Carousel:
Improved actions/
New actions/
Dropped actions

18. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Overall Outcomes
Limited by time pressure, limited scope of
participation, growing preoccupation with Devo
Manc...
Several comments as to value of sharing
knowledge with and learning from other policy
groups with long-term focus
Recognition of numerous uncertainties, of
importance of issues like inequality
Affirmation of Manchester progress and potential,
hope for further development and dissemination of
work.

19. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
End of Presentation