ATS Research positive on Deepak Nitrate, buy at CMP and further add on declines
1. Background
Esta lished i 97 s Deepak Nitrite Li ited DNL is a leadi g I dia spe ialt he i al a ufa turer. Its produ t portfolio includes Bulk
Chemicals, Fine & Specialty Chemicals and Fluorescent Whitening Agents (FWA). DNL is a leading global supplier for several niche chemical
products like Xylidines, Cumidines, Oximes & Colour Intermediates to several industries which Colorants, Petrochemicals, Agrochemicals,
Rubber, Pharmaceuticals, Paper, Textile, Detergents, etc to a host of Fortune 500 companies spread across more than 30 countries.
Instituted as a fully indigenous sodium nitrite and sodium nitrate plant DNL has today grown into a 700 million US dollar global group.
Investment Rationale
Diversified products portfolio
Marquee customer profile
Expanding capacities to aid growth
Make in India
Wide geographical reach and entry into new markets
Risks and Concerns
Obsolescence of Product and Processes
Fluctuations in exchange rates and economic scenario
Dependence of demand of end users
Conclusion & Recommendation
DNL s profit is o siste tl gro i g at a CAG‘ of ore tha % per a u i the past fi e ears a d it also has healthy financials. With the
growth prospects of the chemical industry as a whole looking bright, we expect DNL could outpace the industry. With new product launches,
expansion of manufacturing plants and change in its product mix, DNL would be able to maintain a healthy financial position and improve its
margins from the current levels.
At the current market price of Rs.70.75 the stock is trading at 20.9x FY17E EPS. Investors could buy the stock at CMP and add on dips to
around Rs.62-Rs.66levels (~19.2x FY17E EPS) for our sequential targets of Rs.85 and Rs.91 (~25x to ~27x FY17E EPS).
Financial Summary
Particulars (Rs. in Crs) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Net Sales 1094.7 1352.25 1415.32 1654.938 1856.29
Operating Profit 82.88 115.77 141.76 156.92 187.08
PAT 37.82 38.33 53.44 55.3 69.1
EPS (Rs.) 3.62 3.67 2.56 2.71 3.38
PE 18.79 18.54 26.61 25.10 20.09
July 30 2015
Deepak Nitrite
Key Parameters
Bse Code 531882
Nse Code KWALITY
Reuters Code KDAI.NS
CMP (as on 21/07/2015) 76.30
Stock Beta 1.39
52week H/L 81/35.25
Mkt Cap (Rs.Cr) 1708.29
Equity Capital (Rs.Cr) 20.23
Fave Value(Rs.) 1
Average Volume 971972
Shareholding Pattern(%)
Promoters 69.56
Non-Institutions 11.47.
Public and others 18.98
Grand Total 100
Price Chart
Key Parameters
BSE Code 506401
NSE Code DEEPAKNTR
Reuters Code DPNT.BO
CMP (as on 29/07/2015) 70.75
Stock Beta 0.97
52 Week H/L 91.75/60.75
Market Cap (Cr) 740.52
Equity Capital (Rs cr) 20.91
Face Value (Rs) 2
Average Volume 38511
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 57.28
Non Institutions 42.72
Grand Total 100
Research Analyst:
Varun Gopal I G
Equity Research Analyst
Aditya Trading Solutions
Email: varungopal@adityatrading.com
Phone: 080-43561171
2. Business Profile
Bulk Chemicals & Commodities (BCC)
In the Bulk Chemicals & Commodities (BCC), Company manufactures Nitro Toluenes, Fuel Additives and Sodium Nitrite which find application
across colorants, rubber chemicals, pharmaceuticals, explosives, dyes, pigments, agrochemicals, diesel blending, food colors, electroplating,
etc. This business unit focuses on producing commodity chemicals that are supplied in high volumes .This segment faces low entry barriers
and thus is characterized by moderate margins. This BCC can be further classified under Nitro Tolunes, Sodium Nitrates & Fuel Additives. DNL
pla s to le erage o Co pa s ost leadership to e ha e olu es & dri e profit
FINE & SPECIALITY CHEMICALS (FSC)
The Fine & Specialty Chemicals business manufactures specialty chemicals, Xylidines, Oximes and Cumidines primarily used as intermediates
in colorants, pigment, fuel additive, agro chemicals and pharmaceuticals. These products possess differentiated properties and are
manufactured to customer specifications catering to the value added end users. Since these products are customized, it is not a volume
focused business.
FLUORESCENT WHITENING AGENT (FWA)
Fluorescent Whitening Agents are brighteners commonly used in industries like paper, detergents, textiles, coating applications in printing
and photographic paper. It offers its customers, products as per their desired specification across liquid, solid and powdered forms. FWA is
an application chemical and is commonly known as Opti al Brighte i g Age t OBA . DNL has the orld s first full i tegrated a ufa turer
of FWA having vertical integration from Toluene to OBA (Toluene – PNT – DASDA – FWA). OBA has wide applications in varied industries -
Paper, Detergents, Textiles, Coating Applications in Printing & Photographic Paper.
Manufacturing Facilities
NANDESARI, Gujarat
Bulk and commodity product manufacturing with on site Nitration & Specialty Agrochemicals
Contributed 66% of revenues in FY14
DAHEJ, Gujarat
Full spectrum stilbenic Optical Brightening Agents production
Contributed 4% of revenues in FY14 (Plant fully commissioned in FY15)
TALOJA, Maharashtra
Hydrogenation & noble metal catalysis specialty
Contributed 12% of revenues in FY14
ROHA, Maharashtra
Multispecialty site specializing in pilot plants and scaling up activities Nitration & Specialty Agrochemicals
Contributed 11% of revenues in FY14
3. HYDERABAD, Telangana
Plant acquired from Vasant Chemicals
Manufactures DASDA (toulene derivative) for captive use in OBA business & commercial sales
Contributed 7% of revenues in FY14
End user industry breakup (FY14) Share Holding Pattern (FY15)
Product based revenue breakup (FY14) Revenue (geographical) break up (FY15)
51%
21%
23%
1%4% Color
Agro
Fuel addictive
Pharma
Others
57.8%28.2%
13.7%
0.3%
Bulk Specialty
Chemicasl
Fine Specialty
Chemicals
Fluorescent
Whitening
Agents
Others
39%
61%
Exports
Domestic
Particulars Percentage (%)
Foreign 5.71
Institutions 0.74
Government 0
Non promoter corp holding 9.75
Promoters 57.28
Public and others 26.52
Total 100
4. Investment Rationale
Diversified products portfolio
DNL has a well diversified product mix which will help it to reduce the risk factor with associate with one single product or single end user
focused companies. It has multiple facilities located across Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana. These facilities are flexible as multiple
products can be manufactured depending on the demand scenario, given that the processes are easily interchangeable at existing facilities.
DNL also manufactures a variety of chemical intermediates due to its competency in various chemical manufacturing processes. Diversified
production and flexible capacities act as a natural hedge as they allow your Company to shift production towards a product which is
witnessing with higher demand.
Marquee customer profile
DNL has fostered long term relationships across a wide range of industries and is a preferred supplier to some of the leading companies both
in India and Internationally. Co pa s lo g-term relations with its customers have become more like quasi-partnerships due to a focus by
many on value chain. It also help to bring the stability factor associated with demand and purchase of products to the clients and also help
DNL to grow along with the growth and growth prospects of the clientele.
Expanding capacities to aid growth
With the current expansion plans DNL will be in a position to make the optimum utilization of the market potential and the demand for the
products. The Greenfield expansion plan at Dahej is an example of co pa s for ard i tegratio fro eing a supplier of Nitro- Toluene
into the manufacture of DASDA (Diamino Stilbene Disulfonic Acid) and finally into Optical Brightening Agent (OBA). With the picking up of
product demand DNL will be able to make full capacity utilization of current and work in progress plants and capitalize of the product
demand. The high growth prospects of the fully owned subsidiary, Deepak Phenolics Ltd(expected to be commissioned during FY18)., for the
manufacture of Phenol and Acetone at Dahej will be a big catalyst for growth. I trodu tio of e produ ts i to o pa s portfolio ill
help to ha e a e di e sio to the o pa s gro th. A d o pletio of the pla ts ill ha ge the o erall product revenue mix and
overall margins to a significant extend.
Make in India
Ma ufa turi g i I dia is e pe ted to ra p up at a greater rate tha de eloped arkets. The Make i I dia a paig fo uses on the ease of
doing business and is likely to move India ahead in the global manufacturing race. Further, Chinese costs are also increasing resulting in a lot
of companies considering shifting their manufacturing from China to other emerging markets like India. DNL being a highly cost competent
manufacturer and expects increase the revenue driven by greater demand from developed markets like Europe, USA, etc. due to its cost
leadership and quality.
Diverse application of product profile
The application of the products of DNL is spread across Agro Chemicals, Refinery, Dyes and Pigments, Pharmaceuticals, Textiles, Paper,
Detergents, Foods Colors, Tires and many more, which will help to reduce the risk associated concentration on a single end user industry.
Being a multi product manufacturer DNL will be able to substitute the reduction in demand of one product from one industry with the
increase in demand of another product in another industry. It helps to reduce the risk associated with the product and to exploit the market
potential.
5. Wide geographical reach and entry into new markets
Being a India based global player in chemical industry, DNL have a wide geographical reach into more than thirty countries spread into six
continents. B2B sales help the company in order to reduce the marketing expenditure to the minimum. With the entry into new markets with
high growth potential so that company will be able to grow in a much faster pace than developed or saturated markets.
Technical expertise and process competence
With highly advanced Research and Development facility and technical collaborations with Dr. Ing Mario Biazzi and many others DNL is one
of the most efficient companies in terms of technical expertise and process competence in production which in turn helps in reducing the
wastage and increasing the quality of products and maintaining high margins. It also helps the company to reduce risk associated with
obsolescence of product and processes to a greater extend.
Sound financials
DNL s profit is consistently growing at a CAGR of more than 25% per annum in the past five years and it also has healthy financials and quick
cash flow. With the growth prospects of the chemical industry as a whole looking bright, we expect DNL could outpace the industry. With
new product launches, expansion of manufacturing plants and change in its product mix, DNL would be able to maintain a healthy financial
position and improve its margins from the current levels. The growth prospects of Agro Chemicals, Refinery, Dyes and Pigments,
Phar a euti als, Te tiles, Paper, Deterge ts, Foods Colors, Tires i dustr , et , ill gi e ore fuel to the DNL s gro th.
Risks and Concerns
Dependence of demand of end users
Being a raw material supplier to many companies scattered around various geographies, DNL s perfor a e relies on the performance,
demand and growth of the companies which DNL supply its products.
Fluctuations in exchange rates and economic scenario
Al ost % of the o pa s re e ue o es fro e ports, So, DNL is exposed to fluctuations in the currency exchange rates and
economic/business climate abroad.
Obsolescence of Product and Processes
As new technologies are developed, older technologies that are used in manufacture often become obsolete. Rapid obsolescence of products
and related methods of manufacturing can pose a serious threat. DNL being a chemical manufacturer it is exposed to the risk of obsolescence
in products and process.
6. Industry Overview
The Indian chemical industry stands as the third largest producer in Asia and 12th in world, in terms of volume. This industry could grow at 14
per cent per annum to reach a size of US$ 350 billion by 2021. India accounts for approximately 7 per cent of the world production of
dyestuff and dye intermediates and is currently the world's third largest consumer of polymers and fourth largest producer of agrochemicals.
The market size of the chemical industry is expected to grow to US$ 350 billion by 2021. With 71 per cent of the total production share, alkali
chemicals form the largest segment in the Indian chemical industry. During FY14, the production of alkali chemicals stood at 6,265 million
tonnes (MT). Total exports of chemicals grew from US$ 3.5 billion in FY03 to US$19.2 billion in FY14, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 16.9 per cent.
The Government of India has approved 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in the chemicals sector and reduced excise duty from 14
per cent to 10 per cent. Policies have been initiated to set up integrated Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemicals Investment Regions
(PCPIR). PCPIR will be an investment region spread across 250 square kilometers for manufacturing of domestic and export-related products
of petroleum, chemicals and petrochemicals.
The chemical industry is dependent on the progress of its key customers, i.e. the manufacturing sector for growth. FY 2014-15 was a soft year
for chemical companies as the global manufacturing sector was affected by slowdown in China and other emerging economies. Recovery in
the United States along with growing demand for higher value and innovative products were the key driving factors for growth in FY 2014-15.
Moving into FY 2015-16, there are indications of an upturn in the global industrial cycle with the United States continuing to witness growth
momentum. In fact, due to the competitive advantage of shell gas extraction, North America will continue to witness sustained growth.
However, the most promising prospects were found in emerging economies of Asia, Africa and Middle East. Sustained recovery in the
manufacturing sector and shift in competitiveness will result in driving the global economic growth. As a result, the size of the global
chemical industry will become $4.7 trillion by 2018 and $5.8 trillion by 2021 from about $3.9 trillion in 2013.
Despite the slowdown in export markets and lackluster growth in domestic markets in FY 2013-14, the Indian chemical industry expanded
and constituted about 3% of the global chemical industry. The chemical industry contributed about 15% of the manufacturing se tors GDP
and about 9% of total exports in FY 2013-14. Of the total size of the chemical industry, bulk chemicals form about 39% of the market share
while agro chemicals is about 20% and specialty chemicals is at about 19% of the market share. The balance 21% is held by Pharmaceuticals
and Biotechnology. Bulk chemicals which comprise of organic and inorganic chemicals are projected to grow by 7.3% CAGR over the next five
years taking it to $25.7 billion by 2018 from $18 billion in 2013. Organic chemicals, which form 34% of the bulk chemicals market are
expected to grow at 9%, driven by strong demand in the end user market. As a result, plants manufacturing organic chemicals are expected
to achieve full capacity utilization by 2018.
Inorganic chemicals are expected to grow by about 6-7% CAGR over the next five years driven by strong demand from the end user industries
like alumina, textiles, paper and detergents. Utilization rate will touch 92% by 2018 from 81% in 2013. The Indian specialty chemicals are the
fastest growing segment. This segment witnessed 10% growth rate since 2009 and was valued at about $23 billion in 2013. This growth has
come about as a result of strong demand from end user industries. The specialty chemical market has gathered enough momentum and is
expected to do about $42 billion by 2018 owing to strong domestic demand. Exports are estimated to drive specialty chemicals growth owing
to its competitive scale and low cost of production compared to other economies.
Looking forward, the Indian chemical industry is expected to deliver healthy gain from strong production volumes that will be consumed
domestically as well as exported. Capacity utilization is also expected to improve further. India is also at the starting point of a new capital
spe di g le as the Make i I dia i itiati e ki ks off. This ill ot o l e pa d produ tio ut also ge erate significant employment once
the projects go online. The Indian chemical sector has the potential to become a global manufacturing hub similar to the Indian
pharmaceutical industry. As the global economy recovers and external demand becomes more robust, chemical exports will further
accelerate. By 2018, the Indian chemical industry will post record CAGR of 8%.
7. Peer group comparison
Financials
Q1FY16 Review
Revenue stands at Rs. 332.48 crore in Q4FY15 compared to Rs. 360.61 in Q4FY14. In Q4, there was a spillover of the impact of the
sharp fall in global prices of crude oil and related petroleum intermediates which took place in Q3. This has impacted the BCC
segment both in terms of top line and profitability.
EBITDA stands at Rs. 37.55 crore in Q4FY15 compared to EBITDA of Rs. 38.92 crore in Q4FY14.
PBT stands at Rs. 20.25 crore in Q4FY15 compared to Rs. 25.23 crore in Q4FY14. This was due to increase in interest and
depreciation as phase 2 of the Dahej plant was commissioned in May, 2014.
PAT stands at Rs. 15.23 crore in Q4FY15 compared to Rs. 15.86 crore in Q4FY14. EBITDA margin and PAT margin have shown
improvement though turnover declined due to price erosion in some products following drop in price of crude oil.
EPS for Q4FY15 stands at Rs. 1.46 of Face Value of Rs. 2 per share post sub-division of shares compared to Rs. 1.52 per share
(adjusted) in Q4FY14.
Particulars (in Rs. Crs.)
1st Qtr
2015/06
1st Qtr
2014/06 VAR [%]
1st Qtr
2015/06
4th Qtr
2015/03 VAR [%]
Gross Sales 336.37 320.13 5.1 336.37 330.06 1.90%
Net Sales 336.37 320.13 5.1 336.37 330.06 1.90%
Other Operating Income 1.95 4.52 -56.9 1.95 2.42 -19.40%
Other Income 0.2 1.31 -84.7 0.2 0.2 0.00%
Total Income 338.52 325.96 3.9 338.52 332.68 1.80%
Sl. No. Name CMP (Rs.) P/E MC (Rs. Cr.) DY (%) SMP/BV
1. Tata Chemicals Ltd. 500.55 16.02 12755.02 2 2.3
2. Godrej Industries Ltd. 376.45 60.2 12644.96 0.37 3.92
3. Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals
Ltd.
173.85 5.3 1276.75 1.91 0.58
4. Aarti Industries Ltd. 391.9 18.84 3472.23 1.12 3.82
5. GHCL Ltd. 82.65 3.85 826.67 2.12 1.07
6. Jindal Poly Films Ltd. 286.25 12.63 1203.68 0.29 0.72
7. Bodal Chemicals Ltd. 29.45 3.49 321.3 0 2
8. Total Expenditure 300.35 297.76 0.9 300.35 295.14 1.80%
PBIDT 38.18 28.2 35.4 38.18 37.55 1.70%
Interest 10.02 7.19 39.4 10.02 8.08 24.00%
PBDT 28.16 21.01 34 28.16 29.46 -4.40%
Depreciation 9.49 8.57 10.7 9.49 9.21 3.00%
PBT 18.67 12.44 50.1 18.67 20.25 -7.80%
Tax 5.31 2.76 92.4 5.31 5.02 5.80%
Reported Profit After Tax 13.36 9.67 38.2 13.36 15.23 -12.30%
Extra-ordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0 0.00%
Adjusted Profit After Extra-ordinary items 13.36 9.67 38.2 13.36 15.23 -12.30%
PBIDTM(%) 11.35 8.81 28.8 11.35 11.38 -0.30%
PBDTM(%) 8.37 6.56 27.6 8.37 8.93 -6.30%
PATM(%) 3.97 3.02 31.5 3.97 4.61 -13.90%
FY15 Review
Revenues of Rs. 1,327.16 crore for FY15 are higher by 4.5% compared to revenues of Rs. 1,269.63 crore in FY14. Growth was driven
by steady increase in volumes in the FWA segment and a mix of volume growth and higher realization for select products in the
established business segments. Exports grew by 4.5% contributing Rs. 524.54 crore while Domestic Revenues grew 4.2% to
Rs.787.33 crore.
But for the recent steep decline in prices of Crude Oil and Petrochemicals and consequent reduction in unit sale prices of some of
the Co pa s produ ts, the top li e ould ha e ee etter than actually reported.
EBITDA is Rs. 140.17 crore in FY15 compared to Rs. 113.54 crore in FY14, representing an increase of 23.5%. This growth was driven
by high value led growth from established business segments due to a favorable shift in product mix. The FWA segment has also
begun contributing to EBITDA in FY15.
PBT increases by 16.5% to Rs. 67.74 crore in FY15 compared to Rs. 58.15 crore last year.
PAT has increased by 39.5% to Rs. 53.44 crore compared to Rs 38.31 crore in FY14. The increase in PAT has come about after
absorbing higher interest and depreciation expense in FY15 due to full commissioning of the Dahej facility in May, 2014.
EPS for FY15 stands at Rs. 5.11 of Face Value of Rs. 2 per share compared to Rs. 3.67 per share (adjusted) in FY14. This signifies a
39.2% growth in EPS.
10. Particulars (in Rs. Crs.) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Share Capital 10.45 10.45 20.91 20.91 20.91
Reserves Total 270.14 297.07 325.92 348.08 376.90
Equity Share Warrants 0 0 0 0 0
Total Shareholders Funds 280.59 307.52 346.83 366.90 399.27
Secured Loans 299.71 451.09 483.05 602.86 816.27
Unsecured Loans 41.45 57.32 61.47 69.06 80.75
Total Debt 341.16 508.41 544.52 724.12 904.8
Other Liabilities 5.79 6.63 7.93 8.36 9.34
Total Liabilities 627.54 822.56 899.28 1047.19 1305.64
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Gross Block 541 698.77 817.38 1117.38 1417.38
Less : Accumulated Depreciation 215.58 237.49 268.66 446.95 566.95
Net Block 325.42 461.28 548.72 670.43 850.43
Capital Work in Progress 117.55 71.1 37.98 76.44 41.94
Investments 1.33 3.12 17.17 14.90 20.46
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 105.32 134.43 107.3 141.02 148.22
Sundry Debtors 242.25 292.24 310.99 376.42 427.86
Cash and Bank 9.5 6.44 2.74 2.74 2.74
Loans and Advances 66.22 67.3 59.58 80.00 86.76
Total Current Assets 423.29 500.41 480.61 600.18 665.58
Current Liabilities 227.33 185.98 163.63 218.93 208.27
Provisions 11.41 17.71 16.58 19.38 22.55
Total Current Liabilities 238.74 203.7 180.21 238.31 230.83
Net Current Assets 184.55 296.71 300.4 361.86 434.75
Deferred Tax Assets 4.82 4.54 4.4 4.59 4.73
Deferred Tax Liability 28.18 39.31 50.72 55.60 66.60
Net Deferred Tax -23.36 -34.77 -46.32 -51.00 -61.86
Other Assets 22.06 25.12 41.31 36.1 33.90
Total Assets 627.55 822.56 899.27 1047.19 1305.64
Balance Sheet (rough estimates)
11. Technical View
On monthly charts, the stock has given a breakout above Rs.62 levels and is currently trading at Rs.70.75.
Going forward, for the medium term, we feel the stock to get support around Rs.62 and Rs.66 levels, which can be used for
averaging the stock.
It is currently trading above its 30 and 50 Day EMAs and has been holding the same level for some weeks. This is a bullish signal.
Weekly traded volumes have shown a strong jump over the last couple of months, which is also a good sign.
Momentum oscillator RSI is below the overbought level of 70 and is pointed upwards, suggesting further upside possible.
Conclusion and Recommendation
We are positive on DNL over the long term and hence recommend a BUY at CMP and further add on declines between Rs.62-Rs.66 for
a target of Rs.85 –Rs.91 with stop loss maintained at Rs.60.7.
Disclaimer: This report is only for the information of our customers. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the
understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not to be
constructed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. ATS and/or its group companies do not as assume any responsibility or
liability resulting from the use of such information.
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