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23 April 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Mahindra Financial Services
Sunesh Khanna (Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
CMP: INR281 TP: INR351 (+25%) Buy27,735 8,398
Bloomberg MMFS IN
Equity Shares (m) 563.5
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b) 158.4/2.5
52-Week Range (INR) 345/232
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 8/-5/-7
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000 536/1964
Free float (%) 48.0
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar 2015 2016E 2017E
NII 30.4 33.3 38.6
PPP 20.8 22.0 25.5
PAT 8.3 9.7 11.5
EPS (INR) 14.7 17.2 20.5
EPS Gr. (%) -6.3 16.6 19.1
BV/Share
( )
100.5 112.9 127.7
ABV/Sh (INR) 90.3 102.4 117.0
RoA on AUM
(%)
2.5 2.6 2.7
RoE (%) 15.5 16.1 17.0
Payout (%) 28.1 28.1 28.1
Valuations
P/E (x) 19.1 16.3 13.7
P/BV (x) 2.8 2.5 2.2
P/ABV (x) 3.1 2.7 2.4
Div. Yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.7
Asset quality improves; higher net income and lower opex drive PAT beat
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services’ (MMFS) 4QFY15 PAT grew 7% YoY and 144%
QoQ to INR3.33b. Higher interest writebacks on account of upgrades and recoveries
led to 6% beat in net income, while reversal of employee provisions led to lower
opex, resulting in 23% PAT beat. Key highlights:
n Led by intense focus on recoveries coupled with the seasonal phenomenon,
GNPAs improved 120bp sequentially (highest QoQ improvement in the last four
years) to 5.9% v/s 7.1% a quarter ago and 4.4% a year ago. NNPAs improved
100bp QoQ to 2.4% v/s 3.4% a quarter ago. PCR improved to 61% v/s 54.3% in
3QFY15 (59.1% in 4QFY14).
n Calculated margins improved 165bp QoQ to 10.39% led by a) interest write-back
due to a improvement in asset quality and b) 30bp QoQ moderation in cost of
fund.
n Other highlights: a) AUM grew to 8% YoY at INR368.8b as the company focuses
on recovery, b) overall CAR stood at 18.3%, with tier 1 of 15.5%, c) cost to income
ratio stood at 28.6%, improved 108bp YoY and d) subsidiaries now contribute
9.4% of consolidated PAT v/s 7.2% in FY14.
Valuation and view: Among the best performers in the last cycle, MMFS has
underperformed peers by a wide margin over the last 12 months due to asset quality
pressures. Company’s current asset quality issues are an cyclical adjustment and not
structural breakdown, in our view. Its long-term prospects remain strong, and as the
rural economy stabilizes, volume pick-up and margin expansion should drive earnings
upgrades. We expect RoE to inch up from 14% in FY15 to 17% in FY17E. The stock is
trading at P/B of 2.5x of FY16E BV of INR113 and 2.2x FY17E BV of INR127.7. Maintain
Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
23 April 2015 2
Mahindra Financial Services
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance v/s expectations and deviations for the same
Y/E March 4QFY15A 4QFY15E Var (%) Comments
Income from ops 15,207 15,323 -1
Interest Expense 6,373 6,988 -9
Other Income 166 134 24
Net Income 9,001 8,469 6
Interest write-back led to +160bp QoQ margin expansions
% Change (Y-o-Y) 16 10
Operating Expenses 2,571 2,813 -9 INR 200m Write-back on employee expenses led to lower opex
Operating Profit 6,429 5,656 14
% Change (Y-o-Y) 18 4
Other Provisions 1,493 1,496 0 Provisions in-line
Profit before Tax 4,936 4,160 19
Tax Provisions 1,602 1,441 11
Net Profit 3,334 2,719 23
Better than expected net income and lower opex led to PAT beat
% Change (Y-o-Y) 7 -12
Source: MOSL, Company
Asset quality improves 120bp – GNPA at 5.9%
n Intense focus on recoveries and high collection efforts coupled with seasonal
phenomena resulted in GNPA decline.
n GNPAs declined 120bps to 5.9% vs 7.1% a quarter ago and 4.4% a year ago. The
GNPA improvement is the highest sequential improvement in asset quality in
last 4 years. NNPA also improved to 2.4% vs 3.4% a quarter ago.
n Credit cost was at 1.72% vs 0.94% in 4QFY14; PCR improved to 61% v/s 54.3% in
3QFY15 (59.1% in 4QFY14).
Higher net income and lower opex drives PAT beat
n Easing wholesale rates and coupled with higher yield on loans (led by interest
recovery) led to improvement in net income which grew +16% YoY and +20%
QoQ to INR9b.
n Calculated margins improved by 165bp QoQ to 10.39%, led by a) interest
recovery due to improvement in asset quality b) 30bp QoQ moderation in cost
of fund Cost of fund to 9.72%.
n Further, opex declined 5% QoQ led by INR200m reversal of employee expenses;
Cost income for the quarter improved to 28.6%
AUM growth moderate to 8%; focus on recovery
n Moderating demand and focus on recoveries led to AUM growth falling to single
digits at 8% YoY and 1% QoQ to INR 369b.
n Consolidation of CV/CE book (-6% YoY and 0.4% QoQ) led to its share in overall
AUM decline to 13% v/s +15% in 4QFY14. Incremental AUM growth YoY is driven
by M&M auto/utility vehicles (50% of incremental AUM).
Healthy performance by subsidiaries continues
n In 4QFY15 disbursements of MRHFL grew 48.8% YoY to INR3.6b. PAT grew
71.4% YoY to INR216m. O/s book stood at ~INR21b (up 55% YoY). FY15 PAT
grew +63% to INR442m
n MIBL Total income grew +9.5% YoY. Net premium grew by 28.5% YoY to INR3b.
n Subsidiaries now contribute 9.4% of consol PAT v/s 7.2% in FY14
23 April 2015 3
Mahindra Financial Services
Valuations and view
n MMFS has underperformed peers by a wide margin over the last 12 months due
to asset quality pressures. While it’s reported NPLs are likely to remain at ~6%
till 2HFY16, we view this as a cyclical adjustment and not a structural
breakdown.
n Long-term prospects remain exciting, and as the rural economy stabilizes, MMFS
should once again be in a pole position to capture the upturn. The management
targets AUM of INR900b by 2020, implying 20% CAGR over the next six years.
n We expect RoEs to inch up from 14% in FY15 to 17% in FY17. Asset quality
stabilization, volume growth pick-up, and margin expansion should drive
earnings upgrades. The stock is currently trading at P/BV of 2.5x of FY16E BV of
INR113 and 2.2x FY17E BV of INR127.7. We value the stock at 2.75x FY17 P/B.
Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 2: DuPont Analysis
Y/E MARCH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Interest Income 15.01 18.15 19.30 18.90 18.23 18.23 18.03 17.99 17.39 17.24 17.02
Interest Expended 6.27 7.54 7.81 6.75 6.49 7.71 8.05 8.36 8.13 8.14 7.81
Net Interest Income 8.73 10.62 11.49 12.16 11.74 10.52 9.98 9.63 9.26 9.10 9.21
Income from Securitisation 1.04 1.77 1.60 1.69 0.89 0.64 1.07 0.82 0.64 0.74 0.92
Net operating income 9.77 12.39 13.09 13.84 12.63 11.16 11.05 10.44 9.90 9.84 10.13
Other Income 0.30 0.35 0.30 0.51 0.32 0.36 0.27 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.15
Net Income 10.07 12.74 13.39 14.35 12.95 11.52 11.31 10.56 10.06 9.98 10.27
Operating Expenses 3.78 4.17 4.08 4.37 4.70 4.07 3.69 3.49 3.28 3.49 3.60
Operating Income 6.29 8.57 9.31 9.98 8.24 7.44 7.62 7.07 6.78 6.49 6.68
Provisions/write offs 2.37 4.07 4.32 2.98 1.34 1.08 1.41 1.93 2.70 2.12 2.05
PBT 3.92 4.50 4.98 7.00 6.90 6.36 6.22 5.14 4.08 4.37 4.62
Tax 1.35 1.57 1.70 2.37 2.35 2.10 1.91 1.75 1.37 1.51 1.60
Reported PAT 2.57 2.93 3.28 4.63 4.55 4.27 4.31 3.39 2.71 2.86 3.03
Leverage 7.07 5.78 4.69 4.65 4.82 5.34 5.43 5.48 5.70 5.63 5.62
RoE 18.19 16.92 15.41 21.54 21.96 22.79 23.42 18.58 15.46 16.12 17.02
Source: MOSL, Company
23 April 2015 4
Mahindra Financial Services
Exhibit 3: Quarterly Snapshot
FY13 FY14 FY15 Variation (%)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q QoQ YoY
Profit and Loss (INR m)
Net Income 4,916 5,394 5,665 6,784 6,224 6,875 6,820 7,732 6,881 7,521 7,477 9,001 20 16
Operating Expenses 1,667 1,768 1,872 2,112 2,064 2,250 2,528 2,293 2,269 2,521 2,706 2,571 -5 12
Employee 584 589 522 539 592 701 671 1,008 1,084 1,174 1,183 1,149 -3 14
Others 1,084 1,179 1,350 1,572 1,472 1,548 1,857 1,285 1,185 1,347 1,523 1,422 -7 11
Operating Profits 3,248 3,626 3,793 4,673 4,160 4,625 4,292 5,439 4,611 5,000 4,771 6,429 35 18
Provisions 854 836 815 329 1,252 1,262 1,796 748 2,250 1,842 2,691 1,493 -45 100
PBT 2,395 2,790 2,977 4,344 2,907 3,363 2,496 4,691 2,362 3,158 2,080 4,936 137 5
Taxes 784 914 975 1,160 995 1,151 854 1,584 813 1,087 716 1,602 124 1
PAT (before EO) 1,610 1,876 2,002 3,184 1,912 2,212 1,641 3,107 1,549 2,071 1,364 3,334 144 7
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m) 7,639 8,734 10,001 7,630 11,555 12,223 15,153 14,057 20,278 21,314 24,991 20,997 -16 49
NNPA (INR m) 2,275 3,270 3,841 2,600 5,062 5,541 6,739 5,756 10,954 10,126 11,426 8,182 -28 42
%GNPAs to total assets (%) 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.4 6.2 6.3 7.1 5.9
%NNPAs to total assets (%) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 2.4
PCR (Calc., %) 70.2 62.6 61.6 65.9 56.2 54.7 55.5 59.1 46.0 52.5 54.3 61.0
Ratios (%)
Cost to Income 33.9 32.8 33.1 31.1 33.2 32.7 37.1 29.7 33.0 33.5 36.2 28.6
Tax Rate 32.8 32.7 32.8 26.7 34.2 34.2 34.2 33.8 34.4 34.4 34.4 32.5
CAR 17.4 16.5 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.0 18.1 17.9 18.1 18.3
Tier I 14.7 14.0 17.3 17.0 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.5
RoA - calculated 3.3 3.6 3.4 5.4 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.9 1.9 2.5 1.6 3.8 140 -3
RoE - calculated 21.2 23.4 20.9 30.3 16.8 18.6 13.3 24.5 12.0 15.5 9.9 23.7 140 -4
Key Details (INR b)
AUM (Reported) 217 238 256 279 295 311 329 341 343 357 365 369 1 8
AUM (Adjusted) 209 229 247 265 282 298 314 321 325 339 346 347 0 8
On book Loans 191 213 234 240 262 281 300 296 305 319 329 329 0 11
Off book Loans 18 16 13 24 20 17 13 25 20 20 17 18 8 -27
Borrowings 170 190 197 215 226 242 257 265 262 276 280 280 0 6
On book Borrowings 149 172 182 189 204 224 243 239 240 255 262 263 0 10
Off book (Securitisation) 20 17 15 26 22 18 15 26 22 21 18 18 -4 -32
AUM Mix (%)
Auto/Utility vehicles 28 29 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 29 30 31
Tractors 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 19 18
Cars 32 32 32 24 24 24 23 24 23 23 23 23
Commercial Vehicles 13 13 13 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13
Refinance & others 7 7 7 12 12 14 14 13 14 16 15 15
Value of assets fin mix. (%)
Auto/Utility vehicles 27 29 30 31 30 30 31 32 33 32 33 33
Tractors 19 18 19 19 21 20 21 20 20 18 19 18
Cars 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 21 22
Commercial Vehicles 15 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 9 10 9 9
Refinance & others 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 18 18 18
Total Borrowing Mix (%)
Bank Term loans 48 45 47 51 42 50 49 54 50 49 46 43
Bonds/NCDs 22 25 26 25 28 22 21 22 21 19 21 22
Securitization 12 9 7 12 10 7 6 10 8 8 7 6
Fixed deposits 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17
Commercial Papers 9 11 8 0 8 9 11 0 6 9 9 12
Other Details
Branches (Nos.) 615 628 639 657 675 687 710 893 998 1,055 1,088 1,108
Employees (Nos.) 4,255 4,296 4,272 4,214 4,229 4,464 4,429 9,349 12,741 13,648 13,899 14,197
Source: MOSL, Company
23 April 2015 5
Mahindra Financial Services
Story in charts
Exhibit 4: AUM growth +8% YoY and 1% QoQ
187
196
209
229
247
265
282
298
314
321
325
339
346
347
42 41 39
36 32 35 35
30 27
21
15 14 10 8
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
Adj. AUM(INR b) YoY Gr. (%)
Exhibit 5: AUM Mix remain stable QoQ (%)
30 30 28 29 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 29 30 31
20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 19 18
31 31 32 32 32 24 24 24 23 24 23 23 23 23
12 12 13 13 13
17 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13
7 7 7 7 7 12 12 14 14 13 14 16 15 15
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
Auto/Uvs Tractors Cars CVs UsedCV & others
Exhibit 6: Borrowing mix shifts away from bank funding (%)
49 55 48 45 47 51 42 50 49 54 50 49 46 43
21
22
22 25 26 25
28 22 21 22 21 19 21 22
12
14
12 9 7 12
10 7 6
10
8 8 7 6
8
9 9 10
11
12 13 13
14
15 16 16 17
11 0 9 11 8 0 8 9 11 0 6 9 9 12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
BankTerm Loans Bonds / NCDs Securitiz. FD CP
Exhibit 7: Cof improves 30bp QoQ
10.2
10.7
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.6
9.7
9.7
9.5
9.9
8.7
8.9
8.9
9.4
6.7 7.0
7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.4
7.6 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7
9MFY12
FY12
1QFY13
1HFY13
9MFY13
FY13
1QFY14
1HFY14
9MFY14
FY14
1QFY15
1HFY15
9MFY15
FY15
Gross Spread(%) Cost of Funds (%)
Exhibit 8: Sequential improvement of120bp QoQ
140
110
140
230
160
110 110
40
120
4QFY07
4QFY08
4QFY09
4QFY10
4QFY11
4QFY12
4QFY13
4QFY14
4QFY15
Improvement in GNPA in 4Q (bp)
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 9: Provision coverage increase 675bp QoQ
18 4 26 23 21 7 30 27 42 14 49 37 56 23
74 78
70
63 62
66
56 55 56 59
46 52 54
61
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
Prov as % of Op Profit PCR (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
23 April 2015 6
Mahindra Financial Services
Exhibit 10: Financials: Valuation metrics
62.34 Rating CMP Mcap EPS (INR) P/E (x) BV (INR) P/BV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
(INR) (USDb) FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
ICICIBC* Buy 312 28.9 23.0 27.1 10.7 8.7 131 150 1.89 1.58 1.63 1.64 15.8 16.4
HDFCB Buy 1,014 40.7 52.0 63.1 19.5 16.1 287 336 3.53 3.02 2.00 1.99 19.5 20.3
AXSB Buy 538 20.3 37.5 44.0 14.4 12.2 219 255 2.46 2.11 1.79 1.75 18.4 18.5
KMB* Neutral 1,377 17.0 49.2 60.4 28.0 22.8 371 427 3.72 3.22 1.86 1.86 14.3 15.0
YES Buy 851 5.7 60.9 76.4 14.0 11.1 332 393 2.56 2.17 1.68 1.70 19.9 21.1
IIB Buy 857 7.3 43.2 54.6 19.8 15.7 227 274 3.77 3.13 1.90 1.97 20.7 21.8
DCBB Buy 119 0.5 7.3 9.5 16.5 12.6 63 72 1.90 1.65 1.12 1.17 12.3 14.1
FB Buy 129 1.8 13.0 15.6 9.9 8.3 100 112 1.29 1.15 1.20 1.19 13.7 14.7
JKBK Neutral 100 0.8 13.6 18.1 7.3 5.5 137 151 0.73 0.66 0.81 0.95 10.4 12.6
SIB Buy 25 0.5 3.7 4.7 6.8 5.4 29 33 0.86 0.77 0.78 0.86 13.3 15.2
Private Aggregate 123.6 17.2 14.3 2.78 2.41
SBIN (cons)* Buy 277 33.2 29.0 36.2 9.2 7.3 231 260 1.15 1.01 0.77 0.84 12.8 14.5
PNB Buy 160 4.6 26.8 36.2 6.0 4.4 231 263 0.69 0.61 0.77 0.91 12.2 14.6
BOI Neutral 218 2.3 50.3 64.3 4.3 3.4 455 511 0.48 0.43 0.46 0.49 11.6 13.3
BOB Neutral 179 1.2 24.1 30.8 7.5 5.8 184 208 0.97 0.86 0.70 0.78 13.7 15.7
UNBK Buy 153 1.6 36.6 47.1 4.2 3.2 320 359 0.48 0.43 0.57 0.64 12.0 13.9
INBK Buy 158 1.2 28.7 33.5 5.5 4.7 287 313 0.55 0.50 0.63 0.63 10.4 11.2
CRPBK Neutral 57 0.2 16.5 21.9 3.5 2.6 141 158 0.41 0.36 0.54 0.64 12.3 14.7
ANDB Buy 77 0.7 17.9 22.5 4.3 3.4 169 185 0.46 0.42 0.55 0.60 11.0 12.7
IDBI Neutral 79 2.0 14.4 19.7 5.4 4.0 157 173 0.50 0.45 0.58 0.69 9.5 11.9
DBNK Neutral 50 0.4 9.7 13.6 5.2 3.7 130 141 0.39 0.36 0.36 0.44 7.7 10.0
Public Aggregate 47.4 7.7 6.0 0.83 0.75
HDFC* Buy 1,276 31.9 38 46 21.6 16.4 165 192 5.03 3.93 2.53 2.53 23.8 24.9
LICHF Buy 443 3.6 33 39 13.5 11.3 198 229 2.24 1.93 1.43 1.42 17.8 18.3
IHFL Buy 561 3.3 64 79 8.7 7.1 215 246 2.61 2.28 4.23 4.29 32.4 34.3
IDFC Buy 169 4.3 13 14 13.4 11.8 109 120 1.29 1.16 2.20 2.19 11.5 12.0
RECL Buy 323 5.1 66 75 4.9 4.3 300 358 1.08 0.90 3.50 3.36 24.2 22.8
POWF Buy 276 5.8 55 63 5.0 4.4 288 334 0.96 0.83 3.18 3.11 20.6 20.1
SHTF Buy 1,031 3.8 78 92 13.2 11.3 494 573 2.09 1.80 2.27 2.44 16.3 17.7
MMFS Neutral 281 2.5 18 21 16.0 13.1 113 128 2.49 2.19 2.61 2.76 16.5 17.7
BAF Buy 4,281 3.4 219 267 19.5 16.1 1,137 1,360 3.77 3.15 2.94 2.88 21.0 21.4
NBFC Aggregate 63.8 14.8 12.8 2.74 2.38
*Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
23 April 2015 7
Mahindra Financial Services
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Interest Income 14,054 18,545 26,500 36,268 47,079 53,388 58,408 64,888
Interest Expended 5,017 6,602 11,203 16,188 21,880 24,967 27,586 29,778
Net Interest Income 9,037 11,943 15,297 20,080 25,199 28,420 30,822 35,110
Change (%) 20.4 32.2 28.1 31.3 25.5 12.8 8.4 13.9
Income from Securitisation 1,254 906 925 2,145 2,137 1,973 2,508 3,504
Other Income 380 324 521 533 314 486 497 561
Net Income 10,671 13,173 16,743 22,759 27,650 30,880 33,827 39,175
Change (%) 22.0 23.4 27.1 35.9 21.5 11.7 9.5 15.8
Operating Expenses 3,250 4,783 5,920 7,420 9,134 10,068 11,832 13,713
Operating Income 7,421 8,390 10,823 15,339 18,516 20,811 21,996 25,462
Change (%) 22.1 13.1 29.0 41.7 20.7 12.4 5.7 15.8
Provisions and W/Offs 2,215 1,365 1,570 2,833 5,058 8,275 7,186 7,831
PBT 5,206 7,024 9,253 12,506 13,458 12,536 14,809 17,632
Tax 1,762 2,393 3,051 3,833 4,585 4,219 5,109 6,083
Tax Rate (%) 33.8 34.1 33.0 30.7 34.1 33.7 34.5 34.5
PAT 3,444 4,631 6,201 8,673 8,872 8,318 9,700 11,549
Change (%) 60.5 34.5 33.9 39.9 2.3 -6.2 16.6 19.1
Proposed Dividend (Incl Tax) 850 1,213 1,682 2,389 2,717 2,326 2,712 3,229
Balance Sheet (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Equity Share Capital 960 1,025 1,027 1,126 1,127 1,128 1,128 1,128
Reserves & Surplus 16,326 23,876 28,483 43,420 49,815 55,566 62,554 70,874
Net Worth 17,286 24,901 29,510 44,546 50,942 56,694 63,682 72,002
Borrowings 64,577 96,750 139,611 188,723 239,293 266,994 290,305 336,592
Change (%) 23.9 49.8 44.3 35.2 26.8 11.6 8.7 15.9
Total Liabilities 81,863 121,651 169,121 233,269 290,235 323,688 353,987 408,594
Investments 2,159 6,746 5,025 7,315 8,692 10,856 11,942 13,136
Change (%) 96.8 212.4 -25.5 45.6 18.8 24.9 10.0 10.0
Loans and Advances 86,414 122,673 173,449 236,483 296,172 329,298 354,031 405,532
Change (%) 27.0 42.0 41.4 36.3 25.2 11.2 7.5 14.5
Net Fixed Assets 476 818 989 1,068 1,195 1,100 1,302 1,253
Net Current Assets -7,186 -8,586 -10,342 -11,597 -15,824 -17,566 -13,288 -11,328
Total Assets 81,863 121,651 169,121 233,269 290,235 323,688 353,987 408,594
E: MOSL Estimates
23 April 2015 8
Mahindra Financial Services
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Spreads Analysis (%)
Yield on Portfolio 18.1 17.7 18.0 17.7 17.6 17.0 17.0 17.0
Cost of Borrowings 8.6 8.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.5
Interest Spread 9.5 9.5 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.5
Net Interest Margin (on AUMs) 11.5 10.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.9 9.1
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE 21.5 22.0 22.8 23.4 18.6 15.5 16.1 17.0
RoA (on balance sheet) 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.9 3.0
RoA on AUM 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7
Average Leverage (x) 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6
Average leverage on AUM (x) 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3
Efficiency Ratios (%)
Int. Expended/Int.Earned 35.7 35.6 42.3 44.6 46.5 46.8 47.2 45.9
Op. Exps./Net Income 30.5 36.3 35.4 32.6 33.0 32.6 35.0 35.0
Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 39.4 31.7 33.7 30.1 32.6 45.6 44.6 44.3
Secur. Inc./Net Income 11.7 6.9 5.5 9.4 7.7 6.4 7.4 8.9
Asset-Liability Profile (%)
Loans/Borrowings Ratio 133.8 126.8 124.2 125.3 123.8 123.3 122.0 120.5
Net NPAs to Adv. 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.3
Valuation
Book Value (INR) 36.0 48.6 57.5 79.1 90.4 100.5 112.9 127.7
BV Growth (%) 17.3 34.9 18.3 37.7 14.3 11.2 12.3 13.1
Price-BV (x) 7.8 5.8 4.9 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2
Adjusted BV (INR) 34.9 47.6 55.9 76.1 83.8 90.3 102.4 117.0
Price-ABV (x) 8.1 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4
OPS (INR) 15.5 16.4 21.1 27.2 32.9 36.9 39.0 45.1
OPS Growth (%) 21.7 5.9 28.7 29.3 20.6 12.3 5.7 15.8
Price-OP (x) 18.2 17.2 13.3 10.3 8.6 7.6 7.2 6.2
EPS (INR) 7.2 9.0 12.1 15.7 15.7 14.7 17.2 20.5
EPS Growth (%) 60.1 26.0 33.6 29.8 0.4 -6.3 16.6 19.1
Price-Earnings (x) 39.2 31.1 23.3 17.9 17.8 19.1 16.3 13.7
Dividend 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.0 3.5 4.1 4.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7
E: MOSL Estimates
23 April 2015 9
Mahindra Financial Services
Corporate profile
Exhibit 12: Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14
Promoter 52.0 52.0 52.1
DII 4.0 1.7 1.3
FII 38.2 41.6 41.4
Others 5.9 4.6 5.1
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 13: Top holders
Holder Name % Holding
Aranda Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd 3.8
Franklin Templeton Investment Funds 2.6
Fidelity Funds Emerging Markets Fund 1.3
JP Morgan Sicav Investment Company 1.1
Exhibit 14: Top management
Name Designation
Bharat N Doshi Chairman
Ramesh Iyer Managing Director
V Ravi CFO
Exhibit 15: Board of director
Name Name
Bharat N Doshi Manohar G Bhide*
Ramesh Iyer Dhananjay Mungale*
Piyush Mankad* Pawan Kumar Goenka
Uday Y Phadke Chandrashekhar Bhave*
Rama Bijapurkar* V S Parthasarathy
*Independent
Exhibit 17: Auditors
Name Type
B K Khare & Co Statutory
Exhibit 18: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation
(%)
FY16 17.2 17.8 -3.4
FY17 20.5 21.8 -6.0
Company description
Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS) is a
subsidiary of India conglomerate Mahindra & Mahindra
(M&M). MMFS was set up two decades ago, with the
objective of financing the vehicles sold by parent M&M.
Over last decade MMFS has transformed itself from a
captive lender to the largest semi-urban and rural
focused diversified NBFC. MMFS as a branch network of
1108 branches, ~14000 employees, 1.8m customers and
asset under management of INR368b. MMFS has two
subsidiaries viz. Mahindra rural housing finance and
Mahindra insurance brokers.
Exhibit 11: Sensex rebased
23 April 2015 10
Mahindra Financial Services
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Mahindra Financial result update: 4QFY15 PAT up 7% YoY and 144% QoQ

  • 1. 23 April 2015 4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Financials Mahindra Financial Services Sunesh Khanna (Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521 Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR281 TP: INR351 (+25%) Buy27,735 8,398 Bloomberg MMFS IN Equity Shares (m) 563.5 M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b) 158.4/2.5 52-Week Range (INR) 345/232 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 8/-5/-7 Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000 536/1964 Free float (%) 48.0 Financials & Valuation (INR b) Y/E Mar 2015 2016E 2017E NII 30.4 33.3 38.6 PPP 20.8 22.0 25.5 PAT 8.3 9.7 11.5 EPS (INR) 14.7 17.2 20.5 EPS Gr. (%) -6.3 16.6 19.1 BV/Share ( ) 100.5 112.9 127.7 ABV/Sh (INR) 90.3 102.4 117.0 RoA on AUM (%) 2.5 2.6 2.7 RoE (%) 15.5 16.1 17.0 Payout (%) 28.1 28.1 28.1 Valuations P/E (x) 19.1 16.3 13.7 P/BV (x) 2.8 2.5 2.2 P/ABV (x) 3.1 2.7 2.4 Div. Yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.7 Asset quality improves; higher net income and lower opex drive PAT beat Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services’ (MMFS) 4QFY15 PAT grew 7% YoY and 144% QoQ to INR3.33b. Higher interest writebacks on account of upgrades and recoveries led to 6% beat in net income, while reversal of employee provisions led to lower opex, resulting in 23% PAT beat. Key highlights: n Led by intense focus on recoveries coupled with the seasonal phenomenon, GNPAs improved 120bp sequentially (highest QoQ improvement in the last four years) to 5.9% v/s 7.1% a quarter ago and 4.4% a year ago. NNPAs improved 100bp QoQ to 2.4% v/s 3.4% a quarter ago. PCR improved to 61% v/s 54.3% in 3QFY15 (59.1% in 4QFY14). n Calculated margins improved 165bp QoQ to 10.39% led by a) interest write-back due to a improvement in asset quality and b) 30bp QoQ moderation in cost of fund. n Other highlights: a) AUM grew to 8% YoY at INR368.8b as the company focuses on recovery, b) overall CAR stood at 18.3%, with tier 1 of 15.5%, c) cost to income ratio stood at 28.6%, improved 108bp YoY and d) subsidiaries now contribute 9.4% of consolidated PAT v/s 7.2% in FY14. Valuation and view: Among the best performers in the last cycle, MMFS has underperformed peers by a wide margin over the last 12 months due to asset quality pressures. Company’s current asset quality issues are an cyclical adjustment and not structural breakdown, in our view. Its long-term prospects remain strong, and as the rural economy stabilizes, volume pick-up and margin expansion should drive earnings upgrades. We expect RoE to inch up from 14% in FY15 to 17% in FY17E. The stock is trading at P/B of 2.5x of FY16E BV of INR113 and 2.2x FY17E BV of INR127.7. Maintain Buy. Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
  • 2. 23 April 2015 2 Mahindra Financial Services Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance v/s expectations and deviations for the same Y/E March 4QFY15A 4QFY15E Var (%) Comments Income from ops 15,207 15,323 -1 Interest Expense 6,373 6,988 -9 Other Income 166 134 24 Net Income 9,001 8,469 6 Interest write-back led to +160bp QoQ margin expansions % Change (Y-o-Y) 16 10 Operating Expenses 2,571 2,813 -9 INR 200m Write-back on employee expenses led to lower opex Operating Profit 6,429 5,656 14 % Change (Y-o-Y) 18 4 Other Provisions 1,493 1,496 0 Provisions in-line Profit before Tax 4,936 4,160 19 Tax Provisions 1,602 1,441 11 Net Profit 3,334 2,719 23 Better than expected net income and lower opex led to PAT beat % Change (Y-o-Y) 7 -12 Source: MOSL, Company Asset quality improves 120bp – GNPA at 5.9% n Intense focus on recoveries and high collection efforts coupled with seasonal phenomena resulted in GNPA decline. n GNPAs declined 120bps to 5.9% vs 7.1% a quarter ago and 4.4% a year ago. The GNPA improvement is the highest sequential improvement in asset quality in last 4 years. NNPA also improved to 2.4% vs 3.4% a quarter ago. n Credit cost was at 1.72% vs 0.94% in 4QFY14; PCR improved to 61% v/s 54.3% in 3QFY15 (59.1% in 4QFY14). Higher net income and lower opex drives PAT beat n Easing wholesale rates and coupled with higher yield on loans (led by interest recovery) led to improvement in net income which grew +16% YoY and +20% QoQ to INR9b. n Calculated margins improved by 165bp QoQ to 10.39%, led by a) interest recovery due to improvement in asset quality b) 30bp QoQ moderation in cost of fund Cost of fund to 9.72%. n Further, opex declined 5% QoQ led by INR200m reversal of employee expenses; Cost income for the quarter improved to 28.6% AUM growth moderate to 8%; focus on recovery n Moderating demand and focus on recoveries led to AUM growth falling to single digits at 8% YoY and 1% QoQ to INR 369b. n Consolidation of CV/CE book (-6% YoY and 0.4% QoQ) led to its share in overall AUM decline to 13% v/s +15% in 4QFY14. Incremental AUM growth YoY is driven by M&M auto/utility vehicles (50% of incremental AUM). Healthy performance by subsidiaries continues n In 4QFY15 disbursements of MRHFL grew 48.8% YoY to INR3.6b. PAT grew 71.4% YoY to INR216m. O/s book stood at ~INR21b (up 55% YoY). FY15 PAT grew +63% to INR442m n MIBL Total income grew +9.5% YoY. Net premium grew by 28.5% YoY to INR3b. n Subsidiaries now contribute 9.4% of consol PAT v/s 7.2% in FY14
  • 3. 23 April 2015 3 Mahindra Financial Services Valuations and view n MMFS has underperformed peers by a wide margin over the last 12 months due to asset quality pressures. While it’s reported NPLs are likely to remain at ~6% till 2HFY16, we view this as a cyclical adjustment and not a structural breakdown. n Long-term prospects remain exciting, and as the rural economy stabilizes, MMFS should once again be in a pole position to capture the upturn. The management targets AUM of INR900b by 2020, implying 20% CAGR over the next six years. n We expect RoEs to inch up from 14% in FY15 to 17% in FY17. Asset quality stabilization, volume growth pick-up, and margin expansion should drive earnings upgrades. The stock is currently trading at P/BV of 2.5x of FY16E BV of INR113 and 2.2x FY17E BV of INR127.7. We value the stock at 2.75x FY17 P/B. Maintain Buy. Exhibit 2: DuPont Analysis Y/E MARCH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Interest Income 15.01 18.15 19.30 18.90 18.23 18.23 18.03 17.99 17.39 17.24 17.02 Interest Expended 6.27 7.54 7.81 6.75 6.49 7.71 8.05 8.36 8.13 8.14 7.81 Net Interest Income 8.73 10.62 11.49 12.16 11.74 10.52 9.98 9.63 9.26 9.10 9.21 Income from Securitisation 1.04 1.77 1.60 1.69 0.89 0.64 1.07 0.82 0.64 0.74 0.92 Net operating income 9.77 12.39 13.09 13.84 12.63 11.16 11.05 10.44 9.90 9.84 10.13 Other Income 0.30 0.35 0.30 0.51 0.32 0.36 0.27 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.15 Net Income 10.07 12.74 13.39 14.35 12.95 11.52 11.31 10.56 10.06 9.98 10.27 Operating Expenses 3.78 4.17 4.08 4.37 4.70 4.07 3.69 3.49 3.28 3.49 3.60 Operating Income 6.29 8.57 9.31 9.98 8.24 7.44 7.62 7.07 6.78 6.49 6.68 Provisions/write offs 2.37 4.07 4.32 2.98 1.34 1.08 1.41 1.93 2.70 2.12 2.05 PBT 3.92 4.50 4.98 7.00 6.90 6.36 6.22 5.14 4.08 4.37 4.62 Tax 1.35 1.57 1.70 2.37 2.35 2.10 1.91 1.75 1.37 1.51 1.60 Reported PAT 2.57 2.93 3.28 4.63 4.55 4.27 4.31 3.39 2.71 2.86 3.03 Leverage 7.07 5.78 4.69 4.65 4.82 5.34 5.43 5.48 5.70 5.63 5.62 RoE 18.19 16.92 15.41 21.54 21.96 22.79 23.42 18.58 15.46 16.12 17.02 Source: MOSL, Company
  • 4. 23 April 2015 4 Mahindra Financial Services Exhibit 3: Quarterly Snapshot FY13 FY14 FY15 Variation (%) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q QoQ YoY Profit and Loss (INR m) Net Income 4,916 5,394 5,665 6,784 6,224 6,875 6,820 7,732 6,881 7,521 7,477 9,001 20 16 Operating Expenses 1,667 1,768 1,872 2,112 2,064 2,250 2,528 2,293 2,269 2,521 2,706 2,571 -5 12 Employee 584 589 522 539 592 701 671 1,008 1,084 1,174 1,183 1,149 -3 14 Others 1,084 1,179 1,350 1,572 1,472 1,548 1,857 1,285 1,185 1,347 1,523 1,422 -7 11 Operating Profits 3,248 3,626 3,793 4,673 4,160 4,625 4,292 5,439 4,611 5,000 4,771 6,429 35 18 Provisions 854 836 815 329 1,252 1,262 1,796 748 2,250 1,842 2,691 1,493 -45 100 PBT 2,395 2,790 2,977 4,344 2,907 3,363 2,496 4,691 2,362 3,158 2,080 4,936 137 5 Taxes 784 914 975 1,160 995 1,151 854 1,584 813 1,087 716 1,602 124 1 PAT (before EO) 1,610 1,876 2,002 3,184 1,912 2,212 1,641 3,107 1,549 2,071 1,364 3,334 144 7 Asset Quality GNPA (INR m) 7,639 8,734 10,001 7,630 11,555 12,223 15,153 14,057 20,278 21,314 24,991 20,997 -16 49 NNPA (INR m) 2,275 3,270 3,841 2,600 5,062 5,541 6,739 5,756 10,954 10,126 11,426 8,182 -28 42 %GNPAs to total assets (%) 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.4 6.2 6.3 7.1 5.9 %NNPAs to total assets (%) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 2.4 PCR (Calc., %) 70.2 62.6 61.6 65.9 56.2 54.7 55.5 59.1 46.0 52.5 54.3 61.0 Ratios (%) Cost to Income 33.9 32.8 33.1 31.1 33.2 32.7 37.1 29.7 33.0 33.5 36.2 28.6 Tax Rate 32.8 32.7 32.8 26.7 34.2 34.2 34.2 33.8 34.4 34.4 34.4 32.5 CAR 17.4 16.5 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.0 18.1 17.9 18.1 18.3 Tier I 14.7 14.0 17.3 17.0 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.5 RoA - calculated 3.3 3.6 3.4 5.4 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.9 1.9 2.5 1.6 3.8 140 -3 RoE - calculated 21.2 23.4 20.9 30.3 16.8 18.6 13.3 24.5 12.0 15.5 9.9 23.7 140 -4 Key Details (INR b) AUM (Reported) 217 238 256 279 295 311 329 341 343 357 365 369 1 8 AUM (Adjusted) 209 229 247 265 282 298 314 321 325 339 346 347 0 8 On book Loans 191 213 234 240 262 281 300 296 305 319 329 329 0 11 Off book Loans 18 16 13 24 20 17 13 25 20 20 17 18 8 -27 Borrowings 170 190 197 215 226 242 257 265 262 276 280 280 0 6 On book Borrowings 149 172 182 189 204 224 243 239 240 255 262 263 0 10 Off book (Securitisation) 20 17 15 26 22 18 15 26 22 21 18 18 -4 -32 AUM Mix (%) Auto/Utility vehicles 28 29 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 29 30 31 Tractors 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 19 18 Cars 32 32 32 24 24 24 23 24 23 23 23 23 Commercial Vehicles 13 13 13 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 Refinance & others 7 7 7 12 12 14 14 13 14 16 15 15 Value of assets fin mix. (%) Auto/Utility vehicles 27 29 30 31 30 30 31 32 33 32 33 33 Tractors 19 18 19 19 21 20 21 20 20 18 19 18 Cars 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 21 22 Commercial Vehicles 15 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 9 10 9 9 Refinance & others 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 18 18 18 Total Borrowing Mix (%) Bank Term loans 48 45 47 51 42 50 49 54 50 49 46 43 Bonds/NCDs 22 25 26 25 28 22 21 22 21 19 21 22 Securitization 12 9 7 12 10 7 6 10 8 8 7 6 Fixed deposits 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 Commercial Papers 9 11 8 0 8 9 11 0 6 9 9 12 Other Details Branches (Nos.) 615 628 639 657 675 687 710 893 998 1,055 1,088 1,108 Employees (Nos.) 4,255 4,296 4,272 4,214 4,229 4,464 4,429 9,349 12,741 13,648 13,899 14,197 Source: MOSL, Company
  • 5. 23 April 2015 5 Mahindra Financial Services Story in charts Exhibit 4: AUM growth +8% YoY and 1% QoQ 187 196 209 229 247 265 282 298 314 321 325 339 346 347 42 41 39 36 32 35 35 30 27 21 15 14 10 8 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 Adj. AUM(INR b) YoY Gr. (%) Exhibit 5: AUM Mix remain stable QoQ (%) 30 30 28 29 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 29 30 31 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 19 18 31 31 32 32 32 24 24 24 23 24 23 23 23 23 12 12 13 13 13 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 7 7 7 7 7 12 12 14 14 13 14 16 15 15 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 Auto/Uvs Tractors Cars CVs UsedCV & others Exhibit 6: Borrowing mix shifts away from bank funding (%) 49 55 48 45 47 51 42 50 49 54 50 49 46 43 21 22 22 25 26 25 28 22 21 22 21 19 21 22 12 14 12 9 7 12 10 7 6 10 8 8 7 6 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 11 0 9 11 8 0 8 9 11 0 6 9 9 12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 BankTerm Loans Bonds / NCDs Securitiz. FD CP Exhibit 7: Cof improves 30bp QoQ 10.2 10.7 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.6 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.9 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 9MFY12 FY12 1QFY13 1HFY13 9MFY13 FY13 1QFY14 1HFY14 9MFY14 FY14 1QFY15 1HFY15 9MFY15 FY15 Gross Spread(%) Cost of Funds (%) Exhibit 8: Sequential improvement of120bp QoQ 140 110 140 230 160 110 110 40 120 4QFY07 4QFY08 4QFY09 4QFY10 4QFY11 4QFY12 4QFY13 4QFY14 4QFY15 Improvement in GNPA in 4Q (bp) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 9: Provision coverage increase 675bp QoQ 18 4 26 23 21 7 30 27 42 14 49 37 56 23 74 78 70 63 62 66 56 55 56 59 46 52 54 61 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 Prov as % of Op Profit PCR (%) Source: Company, MOSL
  • 6. 23 April 2015 6 Mahindra Financial Services Exhibit 10: Financials: Valuation metrics 62.34 Rating CMP Mcap EPS (INR) P/E (x) BV (INR) P/BV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) (INR) (USDb) FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 ICICIBC* Buy 312 28.9 23.0 27.1 10.7 8.7 131 150 1.89 1.58 1.63 1.64 15.8 16.4 HDFCB Buy 1,014 40.7 52.0 63.1 19.5 16.1 287 336 3.53 3.02 2.00 1.99 19.5 20.3 AXSB Buy 538 20.3 37.5 44.0 14.4 12.2 219 255 2.46 2.11 1.79 1.75 18.4 18.5 KMB* Neutral 1,377 17.0 49.2 60.4 28.0 22.8 371 427 3.72 3.22 1.86 1.86 14.3 15.0 YES Buy 851 5.7 60.9 76.4 14.0 11.1 332 393 2.56 2.17 1.68 1.70 19.9 21.1 IIB Buy 857 7.3 43.2 54.6 19.8 15.7 227 274 3.77 3.13 1.90 1.97 20.7 21.8 DCBB Buy 119 0.5 7.3 9.5 16.5 12.6 63 72 1.90 1.65 1.12 1.17 12.3 14.1 FB Buy 129 1.8 13.0 15.6 9.9 8.3 100 112 1.29 1.15 1.20 1.19 13.7 14.7 JKBK Neutral 100 0.8 13.6 18.1 7.3 5.5 137 151 0.73 0.66 0.81 0.95 10.4 12.6 SIB Buy 25 0.5 3.7 4.7 6.8 5.4 29 33 0.86 0.77 0.78 0.86 13.3 15.2 Private Aggregate 123.6 17.2 14.3 2.78 2.41 SBIN (cons)* Buy 277 33.2 29.0 36.2 9.2 7.3 231 260 1.15 1.01 0.77 0.84 12.8 14.5 PNB Buy 160 4.6 26.8 36.2 6.0 4.4 231 263 0.69 0.61 0.77 0.91 12.2 14.6 BOI Neutral 218 2.3 50.3 64.3 4.3 3.4 455 511 0.48 0.43 0.46 0.49 11.6 13.3 BOB Neutral 179 1.2 24.1 30.8 7.5 5.8 184 208 0.97 0.86 0.70 0.78 13.7 15.7 UNBK Buy 153 1.6 36.6 47.1 4.2 3.2 320 359 0.48 0.43 0.57 0.64 12.0 13.9 INBK Buy 158 1.2 28.7 33.5 5.5 4.7 287 313 0.55 0.50 0.63 0.63 10.4 11.2 CRPBK Neutral 57 0.2 16.5 21.9 3.5 2.6 141 158 0.41 0.36 0.54 0.64 12.3 14.7 ANDB Buy 77 0.7 17.9 22.5 4.3 3.4 169 185 0.46 0.42 0.55 0.60 11.0 12.7 IDBI Neutral 79 2.0 14.4 19.7 5.4 4.0 157 173 0.50 0.45 0.58 0.69 9.5 11.9 DBNK Neutral 50 0.4 9.7 13.6 5.2 3.7 130 141 0.39 0.36 0.36 0.44 7.7 10.0 Public Aggregate 47.4 7.7 6.0 0.83 0.75 HDFC* Buy 1,276 31.9 38 46 21.6 16.4 165 192 5.03 3.93 2.53 2.53 23.8 24.9 LICHF Buy 443 3.6 33 39 13.5 11.3 198 229 2.24 1.93 1.43 1.42 17.8 18.3 IHFL Buy 561 3.3 64 79 8.7 7.1 215 246 2.61 2.28 4.23 4.29 32.4 34.3 IDFC Buy 169 4.3 13 14 13.4 11.8 109 120 1.29 1.16 2.20 2.19 11.5 12.0 RECL Buy 323 5.1 66 75 4.9 4.3 300 358 1.08 0.90 3.50 3.36 24.2 22.8 POWF Buy 276 5.8 55 63 5.0 4.4 288 334 0.96 0.83 3.18 3.11 20.6 20.1 SHTF Buy 1,031 3.8 78 92 13.2 11.3 494 573 2.09 1.80 2.27 2.44 16.3 17.7 MMFS Neutral 281 2.5 18 21 16.0 13.1 113 128 2.49 2.19 2.61 2.76 16.5 17.7 BAF Buy 4,281 3.4 219 267 19.5 16.1 1,137 1,360 3.77 3.15 2.94 2.88 21.0 21.4 NBFC Aggregate 63.8 14.8 12.8 2.74 2.38 *Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
  • 7. 23 April 2015 7 Mahindra Financial Services Financials and valuations Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Interest Income 14,054 18,545 26,500 36,268 47,079 53,388 58,408 64,888 Interest Expended 5,017 6,602 11,203 16,188 21,880 24,967 27,586 29,778 Net Interest Income 9,037 11,943 15,297 20,080 25,199 28,420 30,822 35,110 Change (%) 20.4 32.2 28.1 31.3 25.5 12.8 8.4 13.9 Income from Securitisation 1,254 906 925 2,145 2,137 1,973 2,508 3,504 Other Income 380 324 521 533 314 486 497 561 Net Income 10,671 13,173 16,743 22,759 27,650 30,880 33,827 39,175 Change (%) 22.0 23.4 27.1 35.9 21.5 11.7 9.5 15.8 Operating Expenses 3,250 4,783 5,920 7,420 9,134 10,068 11,832 13,713 Operating Income 7,421 8,390 10,823 15,339 18,516 20,811 21,996 25,462 Change (%) 22.1 13.1 29.0 41.7 20.7 12.4 5.7 15.8 Provisions and W/Offs 2,215 1,365 1,570 2,833 5,058 8,275 7,186 7,831 PBT 5,206 7,024 9,253 12,506 13,458 12,536 14,809 17,632 Tax 1,762 2,393 3,051 3,833 4,585 4,219 5,109 6,083 Tax Rate (%) 33.8 34.1 33.0 30.7 34.1 33.7 34.5 34.5 PAT 3,444 4,631 6,201 8,673 8,872 8,318 9,700 11,549 Change (%) 60.5 34.5 33.9 39.9 2.3 -6.2 16.6 19.1 Proposed Dividend (Incl Tax) 850 1,213 1,682 2,389 2,717 2,326 2,712 3,229 Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Equity Share Capital 960 1,025 1,027 1,126 1,127 1,128 1,128 1,128 Reserves & Surplus 16,326 23,876 28,483 43,420 49,815 55,566 62,554 70,874 Net Worth 17,286 24,901 29,510 44,546 50,942 56,694 63,682 72,002 Borrowings 64,577 96,750 139,611 188,723 239,293 266,994 290,305 336,592 Change (%) 23.9 49.8 44.3 35.2 26.8 11.6 8.7 15.9 Total Liabilities 81,863 121,651 169,121 233,269 290,235 323,688 353,987 408,594 Investments 2,159 6,746 5,025 7,315 8,692 10,856 11,942 13,136 Change (%) 96.8 212.4 -25.5 45.6 18.8 24.9 10.0 10.0 Loans and Advances 86,414 122,673 173,449 236,483 296,172 329,298 354,031 405,532 Change (%) 27.0 42.0 41.4 36.3 25.2 11.2 7.5 14.5 Net Fixed Assets 476 818 989 1,068 1,195 1,100 1,302 1,253 Net Current Assets -7,186 -8,586 -10,342 -11,597 -15,824 -17,566 -13,288 -11,328 Total Assets 81,863 121,651 169,121 233,269 290,235 323,688 353,987 408,594 E: MOSL Estimates
  • 8. 23 April 2015 8 Mahindra Financial Services Financials and valuations Ratios Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Spreads Analysis (%) Yield on Portfolio 18.1 17.7 18.0 17.7 17.6 17.0 17.0 17.0 Cost of Borrowings 8.6 8.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.5 Interest Spread 9.5 9.5 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.5 Net Interest Margin (on AUMs) 11.5 10.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.9 9.1 Profitability Ratios (%) RoE 21.5 22.0 22.8 23.4 18.6 15.5 16.1 17.0 RoA (on balance sheet) 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 RoA on AUM 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 Average Leverage (x) 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 Average leverage on AUM (x) 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 Efficiency Ratios (%) Int. Expended/Int.Earned 35.7 35.6 42.3 44.6 46.5 46.8 47.2 45.9 Op. Exps./Net Income 30.5 36.3 35.4 32.6 33.0 32.6 35.0 35.0 Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 39.4 31.7 33.7 30.1 32.6 45.6 44.6 44.3 Secur. Inc./Net Income 11.7 6.9 5.5 9.4 7.7 6.4 7.4 8.9 Asset-Liability Profile (%) Loans/Borrowings Ratio 133.8 126.8 124.2 125.3 123.8 123.3 122.0 120.5 Net NPAs to Adv. 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.3 Valuation Book Value (INR) 36.0 48.6 57.5 79.1 90.4 100.5 112.9 127.7 BV Growth (%) 17.3 34.9 18.3 37.7 14.3 11.2 12.3 13.1 Price-BV (x) 7.8 5.8 4.9 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 Adjusted BV (INR) 34.9 47.6 55.9 76.1 83.8 90.3 102.4 117.0 Price-ABV (x) 8.1 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 OPS (INR) 15.5 16.4 21.1 27.2 32.9 36.9 39.0 45.1 OPS Growth (%) 21.7 5.9 28.7 29.3 20.6 12.3 5.7 15.8 Price-OP (x) 18.2 17.2 13.3 10.3 8.6 7.6 7.2 6.2 EPS (INR) 7.2 9.0 12.1 15.7 15.7 14.7 17.2 20.5 EPS Growth (%) 60.1 26.0 33.6 29.8 0.4 -6.3 16.6 19.1 Price-Earnings (x) 39.2 31.1 23.3 17.9 17.8 19.1 16.3 13.7 Dividend 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.0 3.5 4.1 4.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 E: MOSL Estimates
  • 9. 23 April 2015 9 Mahindra Financial Services Corporate profile Exhibit 12: Shareholding pattern (%) Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 Promoter 52.0 52.0 52.1 DII 4.0 1.7 1.3 FII 38.2 41.6 41.4 Others 5.9 4.6 5.1 Note: FII Includes depository receipts Exhibit 13: Top holders Holder Name % Holding Aranda Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd 3.8 Franklin Templeton Investment Funds 2.6 Fidelity Funds Emerging Markets Fund 1.3 JP Morgan Sicav Investment Company 1.1 Exhibit 14: Top management Name Designation Bharat N Doshi Chairman Ramesh Iyer Managing Director V Ravi CFO Exhibit 15: Board of director Name Name Bharat N Doshi Manohar G Bhide* Ramesh Iyer Dhananjay Mungale* Piyush Mankad* Pawan Kumar Goenka Uday Y Phadke Chandrashekhar Bhave* Rama Bijapurkar* V S Parthasarathy *Independent Exhibit 17: Auditors Name Type B K Khare & Co Statutory Exhibit 18: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS (INR) MOSL forecast Consensus forecast Variation (%) FY16 17.2 17.8 -3.4 FY17 20.5 21.8 -6.0 Company description Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS) is a subsidiary of India conglomerate Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M). MMFS was set up two decades ago, with the objective of financing the vehicles sold by parent M&M. Over last decade MMFS has transformed itself from a captive lender to the largest semi-urban and rural focused diversified NBFC. MMFS as a branch network of 1108 branches, ~14000 employees, 1.8m customers and asset under management of INR368b. MMFS has two subsidiaries viz. Mahindra rural housing finance and Mahindra insurance brokers. Exhibit 11: Sensex rebased
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