EIA2016Turin - Thomas Howard. Prototyping - Why? When? How?

Prototyping & Validation
EIA Guest lecture
Thomas J. Howard, PhD
Associate Professor DTU
CTO MASH Biotech

20162 EIA – Thomas J. Howard – Prototyping
Contents
1. MASH Biotech keynote introduction
2. Prototypes and their purpose
3. Market Prototyping (Pretotyping/Protovation etc etc)
4. Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
5. Technical Prototyping
6. Technical Risk Mitigation
7. PSS

About me
Thomas J. Howard, PhD, Associate Professor
CTO and Co-founder of MASH Biotech ApS
Winner of BMW European Scientific Award 2005
Winner of DTU Innovation Award 2016
Specialisations:
• Engineering Design & Product Development
• Innovation and Technical Entrepreneurship
• Robust Design, Quality & Reliability Engineering

Product Development in my Research

Start-ups & Consulting in Practice

What is Prototyping and the
motivation for doing it?
Unless otherwise stated, this material is under a Creative Commons 3.0
Attribution–Share-Alike licence and can be freely modified, used and
redistributed but only under the same licence and if including the
following statement:
“Original material by Thomas J. Howard and Jakob Andersen, Mechanical Engineering, DTU”

What is a
Prototype
?

A model to test an aspect
of a product’s feasibility,
dealing with the burning
questions

What are the remaining questions
and which are burning?
Business
Market
Product
Production
’Need’
Situation
Do users
want it ?
Will they
pay that
much ?
Is the
market
that big ?
Does it
look good
?
Does it
work ?
Cost and vol.
of
production?
Desired
properties ?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?

Examples of burning questions…

?
Where are
the big
question
marks
Can a human powered centrifuge separate
mercury from gold?
Technical

• Geo Center
• Professor Kurt S Anderson
Lærke Holstebroe Jeanne Lønstrup

?
Where are
the big
question
marks
Will people upload their wind speeds?
Product/User
Behaviour

?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/03/magazine/innovations-issue.html
Where are
the big
question
marks Will transport services buy it?
Market

?
Where are
the big
question
marks
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
?
Stakeholder

Alarm Bells
If the system requires a
full role-out to be of any
use to the customers or
stakeholders.

Exercise: Enough evidence?
1. A letter from potential customers expressing an intent to buy
2. A letter from a top scientist saying the product is technically feasible
3. A catalogue of pre-orders
4. A CAD model and parts list of the final design
5. A fully funded kickstarter campaign
6. A lab-top prototype proving the principle (but looks like crap)
7. A fully tested, production ready product
8. 1000 facebook likes
9. A “looks exactly like”, but hollow model
10. A rendering
11. A virtual prototype/simulation
12. Looks suitable and seems to work but actually gives a fake result
Put the above in order of importance when I comes to increasing the “investibility” of your product/business

Market Prototyping/Pretotyping/Protovation

What are the remaining questions
and which are burning?
Business
Market
Product
Production
’Need’
Situation
Do users
want it ?
Will they
pay that
much ?
Is the
market
that big ?
Does it
look good
?
Does it
work ?
Cost and vol.
of
production?
Desired
properties ?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?

Market Prototyping Exercise
Need Situation:
 Purchase of suncream is always pre-emptive.
 Responsible people get burnt by being caught
in ‘surprise sunshine’ (forgetting cream)
 Cream needs to be available to the user when
s/he needs it

Sun cream on demand
What are the burning questions
related to the market feasibility
of this product?

The burning questions about market
feasibility of sun cream
1.How much variety is required in SPF ?
2.What are the primary locations for sales?
3.Will customers change their mindsets/habits?
4.How many (% & Vol.) people forget to bring SC?
5.What are customers willing to do to receive the product?
6.What is the required dosing sizes?
7.How much will the customers pay?

Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

Prototypes, MVPs, Products &
Demonstration Models
What is the difference?

Demonstration Model
Not strictly a prototype as it’s
not for testing, however,
demonstration models can be
extremely powerful for
customer and partner
development.

What makes a good Technology
Demonstration
 The before and after demo
Often your audience won’t know what the situation was like before your product/service. Try to
demonstrate the before & after simultaneously to highlight the improvement where possible!
 Real-time not recorded
It makes your technology so much more believable and risk free than a recorded or static
“demonstration”
 Element of Surprise
• Get the audience’s attention – “wow I wasn’t expecting to see that!”
• Audience Involvement or Interaction as this can be a great way to use randomness to show that it’s
real, robust and works!
 Big, bold and bright
Make sure it looks good, interesting and the audience can see what’s going on.

Prototypes, MVPs, Products &
Demonstration Models
Prototyping MVP Mature Product
Testing the technical and
market burning questions
Finding and selling to first
customer
Developing product to
target “big fish”
customers
Demonstration Model
Securing customers,
investors & collaborators

MVP/Prototypes/Products – our
definitions
Technical Prototype:
“A model that can be used to test the product’s feasibility in terms of its form or
function.”
Market Prototype:
“A model that can test the commercial feasibility of a product”
MVP:
“The most simple product imaginable that can be produced and sold to your
first customer”
Product:
“The output of your development efforts aim to address your target market”
ForLearning
ForCashand
Credibility

Defining your MVP
A combination of what is:
• easiest to customer/market-segment to access and
sell to
• easiest product to technically achieve

Entire market
Market Segmentation
 Groups of customers with
similar traits and needs are
likely to be found.
 These ”segments” require less
complex value propositions.
Segment 1:
Large Danish
companies
Segment 2:
Medium sized
German
companies
Company size
CountryDK UK DE
MediumLarge

Your MVP customer/segment
 Think of the segments as pins on a bowling
alley...
 ...if you get the the first one, the others
should follow.
 Start with the easiest segment (pin).
 A solid base in seg 1 makes entering new
segments easier.
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
4
3
4
[From the Chasm Institute]

Estimating (sub-) market sizes
 Good and bad types of market data
- Bad data (needs additional
qualification)
- Good data
 ”At least as big as ...” better than
”no bigger than ...”.
 If possible, link to
segments.
TOTAL MARKET
MARKET
DATA
MARKET
DATA

Market estimation: Bottom up
 Describing the market by going ”door to door”.
 Look up adresses of potential customers.
• Krak, Bing, Google Maps etc.
 Find users in fora.
 Do surveys
• Google docs, Forms
 Make contact.
 Use kickstarter.com or similar sites.
• quantification + validation + financing = great!
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12
1
3
1
4
15

Market estimation: Top down
 Market intelligence reports (for the lucky few).
 Statistics.
 Articles.
 References:
• Who else is in the business?

Market resources available
 http://www.reportlinker.com/
 http://advantage.marketline.com
 http://www.hoovers.com

MVP Exercise
1. Pick your first segment
2. Brainstorm your 10 most important features
3. Debate the 3 most vital feature by arguing which are not necessary
4. Does your product still deliver your value proposition?
Prototyping MVP Mature Product
Testing the technical and
market burning questions
Finding and selling to first
customer
Developing product to
target “big fish”
customers

Technical Prototyping

Dyson – 5127 prototypes
The hammer test
When James started out he tested prototypes by dropping them down a
cast iron stairway at the back of his workshop. Simple but effective.
These days Dyson prototypes must endure 550 tests. Hoses are
contorted and stretched. Cleaner heads are slammed into iron table
legs. Performance is tested in temperatures as low as -20c in an
environmental chamber. Things haven’t changed all that much though.
Every 100th bin off the production line is whacked with a lump hammer
just to make sure.
http://content.dyson.co.uk/insidedyson/default.asp

Types of technical prototypes
• Proof-of-Principle Prototype
• Form Study Prototype
• User Experience Prototype
• Visual Prototype
• Functional Prototype
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype

Proof-of-Principle Prototype
A proof of concept prototype is used to test some aspect of
the intended design without attempting to exactly simulate
the visual appearance, choice of materials or intended
manufacturing process. Such prototypes can be used to
"prove" out a potential design approach such as range of
motion, mechanics, sensors, architecture, etc. These types
of models are often used to identify which design options
will not work, or where further development and testing is
necessary.
In electronics this is sometimes: “built on a breadboard”.

Form Study Prototype
This type of prototype will allow designers to explore the basic size, look and feel of a product
without simulating the actual function or exact visual appearance of the product. They can help
assess ergonomic factors and provide insight into visual aspects of the product's final form. Form
Study Prototypes are often hand-carved or machined models from easily sculpted, inexpensive
materials (e.g., urethane foam), without representing the intended colour, finish, or texture. Due to
the materials used, these models are intended for internal decision making and are generally not
durable enough or suitable for use by representative users or consumers.

Form prototypes
http://cmuid.tumblr.com/page/2
http://www.dwell.com/articles/Dyson-
Airblade-process.html
Cutting tools Dyson AirBlade

User Experience Prototype
A User Experience Model invites active human interaction and is primarily used to support user
focused research. While intentionally not addressing possible aesthetic, this type of model more
accurately represents the overall size, proportions, interfaces of a concept. This type of model
allows early assessment of how a potential user interacts with various elements, motions, and
actions of a concept which define the initial use scenario and overall user experience. As these
models are fully intended to be used and handled, more robust construction is key. Materials
typically include plywood, REN shape, RP processes and CNC machined components.

User Experience

Visual Prototype
To capture the intended design aesthetic and simulate the appearance, colour and surface textures of
the intended product but will not actually embody the function(s) of the final product. These
models will be suitable for use in market research, executive reviews and approval, packaging
mock-ups, and photo shoots for sales literature.
http://www.volvotips.com/index.php/gener
al/gallery/daf-museum/
Volvo 340
http://www.e90post.com/forums/showthrea
d.php?t=159
BMW 305

Functional Prototype
To the greatest extent practical will attempt to simulate the final design, aesthetics, materials and
functionality of the intended design. The functional prototype may be reduced in size (scaled down)
in order to reduce costs. The construction of a fully working full-scale prototype and the ultimate
test of concept, is the engineers' final check for design flaws and allows last-minute improvements
to be made before larger production runs are ordered.

Advance Passenger Train (APT)
Beware using a prototype as a
production model.
Your first product should be
design to be used by the
customer!

Typical prototype in action…
https://youtu.be/YQRm1cg8T8I

Proof of principle prototypes
Oversights revealed by the Prototypes
Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3
– Awkward assembly – Awkward assembly – Lock insecurity
revealed
– Very small increments
for code
– Cannot work in all
orientations
– More flimsy than
anticipated
– Code revealed under
tube
– To release bars must
first be raised
– Supporting pin are too
small
– More flimsy – Awkward to adjust
code
– Awkward to adjust
code
– Lock insecurity
revealed
– Lock insecurity
revealed
+ Simplicity realised
+ More discreet than
anticipated
+ More sturdy + Dimensionally suited
+ An effective visual
deterrent
+ Locks securely even
when code is <2mm out

Prototype vs Production Model
Prototype parts Extruded parts
T cutter would have
been required for
this section
Instead of using a T cutter to form the extra lip
Mill Square then fasten will screws.

Proof of principle/form prototype

Mk. 9

User experience prototype
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TbyXq3XHSc

Proving a (technical) point
Virtual Prototyping
“Original material by Thomas J. Howard and Jakob Bejbro Andersen for course 41631 – Innovation and Product Development
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The Technical University of Denmark”

EdgeFlow Aps: Building proof
 Who: The customer (IKEA).
 What proof: The economic value (annual income/saving).
 What factors: Wind ressource, speed up effect, efficiency.
Wind
ressource
Speed up
effect
Turbine
efficiencyX X =
Energy
priceX
Income /
saving

EdgeFlow Aps: Building proof III

EdgeFlow Aps: Building proof V
Wing design?
Position of rotor?Size of rotor?
Rotational speed?

EdgeFlow Aps: Building proof IV
2nd Eigenmode
FEA Model (Salome-Meca)
Stiffness of rotor?
Material choice?
Rotor lifespan?

Tools for simulation
 Mechanical engineering:
• Ansys, Solidworks, Creo, Comsol
• Opensource: Salome-Platform, Salome-Meca, Code_Aster,
 Thermal engineering:
• Ansys, Comsol…
• Opensource: Salome-Meca, Code_Aster
 Flow dynamics:
• StarCD, StarCCM+, Fluent
• Opensource: OpenFOAM, Code_Saturne
 Multiphysics:
• Comsol
• Opensource: Elmer GUI
 Electronic:
• Lego Technic
• Opensource: Arduino
 Chemical:
• ???
• Opensource: ???

Technology Risk Mitigation
How to build an MVP
“Original material by Jakob Bejbro Andersen and Thomas J. Howard for course 41631 – Innovation and
Product Development Department of Mechanical Engineering, The Technical University of Denmark”

The impact and challenges of
technologies
 You can understand a given technology in terms of:
 Technology Need Value (TNV)
 Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
 R&D Degree of Difficulty (R&D3)
Low TNV, TRL & R&D3
= Limited tech risk (T1)
High TNV, TRL & R&D3
= High technological risk (T2)
Technologies in T2 octant we call ”Wicked Technologies”
TNV
TRL
R&D3

The scales
TNV TRL R&D3
1
The technology effort is not critical at this time
to the success of the program – the advances to
be achieved are useful for some cost
improvements; however, the information to be
provided is not needed for management
decisions until the far-term
9
Actual system “flight proven”
through successful mission
operation.
1
A very low degree of difficulty is
anticipated in achieving research and
development objectives for this
technology. Probability of Success in
“Normal” R&D Effort 99%
3
The technology effort is important to the
success of the program – the advances to be
achieved are important for performance and/or
cost objectives AND the information to be
provided is needed for management decision in
the near- to mid-term.
5
Component and/or
breadboard validation in
relevant environment
3
A high degree of difficulty anticipated in
achieving R&D objectives for this
technology. Probability of Success in
“Normal” R&D Effort 80%
5
The technology effort is critically important to
the success of the program at present – the
performance advances to be achieved are
enabling AND the information to be provided is
essential for near-term management decisions.
1
Basic principles observed and
reported. 5
The degree of difficulty anticipated in
achieving R&D objectives for this
technology is so high that a fundamental
breakthrough is required. Probability of
Success in “Normal” R&D Effort 20%

Up-front management of
technological risk
 How do you go from a picture like the one below?
• This indicates a huge development task.
• Little transparency on critical development tasks.
Needs attention now!

TNVR&D3
TRL
5
1
9
1
5
1
No problems!
Tech available and ready
to use.
Watch out!
Complications may arise
and could cause problems.
Critical!
Tech is crucial, tricky and
underdeveloped.
Divide and isolate risk

No problems!
Tech available and ready
to use.
Watch out!
Complications may arise
and could cause problems.
Critical! (wicked)
Tech is crucial, tricky and
underdeveloped.
Divide and isolate risk
 Identify sub-technologies
 Rate them using the Tech risk dimensions
- Save for later! - Next on to-do list - DO NOW!

Expand knowledge of domain
 Find an expert!
• Perhaps from a related field?
Expert opinion
Maturity overestimated
Need for R&D
underestimated Tech value overestimated
Your opinion
Margin
of error
Margin of
error
reduced

Substitute technology
Key characetistics
Oil yield: 60%
Cost: 200k USD
Development: 5M USD
Delivery time: 5 years
Flash pyrolysis reactor
Key characetistics
Oil yield: 20%
Size: Significantly larger
Cost: 70k USD
Development: 0 USD
Delivery time: 3 months
Tire pyrolysis reactor (India)
 Is there still a business if a
simpler technology is used?
 Evaluate performance in
terms of revuenue, payback,
reliability etc.

Product/Service-Systems (PSS)
“Original material by Tim McAloone, Thomas J. Howard and Jakob Andersen, Mechanical Engineering, DTU”

Products and Services
What is a Product?
What is a Service?
Use the terms Value and Stakeholder in your definitions

Definitions
Product
‒ The result of a synthesis process, where value is created by transferring ownership of the result
from one stakeholder to the next.
Service
‒ The creation of value when one stakeholder carries out an activity on behalf of another.
McAloone 2012

The essence of PSS:
Allowing users/customers to get
the results they want when they
want – “focus is on the function
unit or output and not the
product”

Rolls Royce
From airplane engines to ’power-by-the-hour’
In the airline industry, the company does not sell engines - it charges for use of the thrust
they provide, on a 'power by the hour' basis. Where previously the company's aerospace arm
simply sold engines to plane companies, they now offer a fixed-fee maintenance back-up
service for those engines, thus allowing customers to accurately project their maintenance
and part replacement costs.
[www.rolls-royce.com]
[www.rolls-royce.com]
Traditional model
Core business:
passenger
revenues
Rolls-Royce
Airline
Overhaul
Base
Eng. Health
Monitoring
Logistics
Provider
Vendors
Non-core business activities
TotalCare model
Focus on core
business
Rolls-Royce responsible for
airline’s non-core business activities
Overhaul
Base
Logistics
Provider
Vendors
Airline
Rolls-Royce
Predictive
maintenance
TotalCare model
Focus on core
business
Rolls-Royce responsible for
airline’s non-core business activities
Overhaul
Base
Logistics
Provider
Vendors
Airline
Rolls-Royce
Predictive
maintenance
From Selling Engines to... ?

Danfoss
From electronic refrigeration controls to cooling in supermarkets
In order to avoid being reduced to a component supplier (where competition is tough and
margins slim) Danfoss has positioned itself as a provider of value added consultant advice to
the food retail industry. By tying a closer link to the retailer Danfoss can increase knowledge
about operational know-how.
[www.danfoss.com]
Systems
Networks
Components
Value
Added
Services
[Eriksen, Danfoss, 2005]
OEM’s
Contractors
OEM’s
System house
Contractors
End-Users
Supermarkets
Distribution
channel
From Selling Refrigeration
Equipment to... ?

Xerox
From photocoping machines to document services
Xerox has worked to turn its product into a service, providing a complete "document service"
to companies including supply, maintenance, configuration, and user support. Customer’s
don’t buy photocopy machines anymore, the buy the ability to photocopy.
[www.xerox.com]
From Selling Photocopiers to... ?

DuPont
From paint to painted cars
Payment by paint quality:
Reward: selling more paint
No action concerning painting
Flexible delivery
Quality of painted surface
Cost of painting
Payment per car:
Concern of reducing quantity
Immediate delivery
Quality of the painted surface
Immediate satisfaction
No action concerning painting
DuPont
Ford
DuPont
Ford
DuPont painting
Ford producing
Ford painting
Ford producing
DuPont
Customer: Long-term interest of quality
from satisfaction delivery system [McAloone, 2003]
From Selling Car Paint to... ?

TRANSPORT
RAWMATERIALS
ASSEMBLY
MANUFACTURE
SALES
DISPOSAL
INSTALLATION
MAINTENANCE
USE
Producer’s traditional responsibility/liability
Traditional producer ownership Traditional customer ownership
€
Why PSS ?

Producer’s extended product responsibility, customer contact and
revenue source
TRANSPORT
RAWMATERIALS
ASSEMBLY
MANUFACTURE
SALES
DISPOSAL
INSTALLATION
MAINTENANCE
USE
Product life cycle design
PSS-oriented business strategy
€ € € € €
Why PSS ?

Customer Activity Cycle
(Vandermerwe 99)

Customer Activity Cycle + Value Adds
(Vandermerwe 99)

Easyjet PSS

MVP and PSS – Flintstoning!

MVP Example: Plasmarc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C14b36PMqY#t=75

Suitable Processes
Effectual Predictive
Agile & SCRUM Stage-gate & IPD

The Agile Manifesto
Individuals and
Interactions
Working
Product
Customer
Collaboration
Responding to
Change
Processes and
Tools
Comprehensive
Documentation
Contract
Negotiation
Following a
Plan
Over
Over
Over
Over

The SCRUM process
Stakeholders
/Customer
Product Owner
Product
Backlog
Requirements
Backlog Creation
and Grooming
Development
Team
SCRUM Master
Sprint Planning
Sprint
Backlog
1 week sprint cycle
24 hrs
Daily SCRUM
meeting
Sprint Review
Finished
Work

?

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