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Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor

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The latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows an increase in the proportion of the British public thinking the Prime Minister should step down as soon as possible, and her worst ratings yet for having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister. However, despite how poorly the British public believe the Brexit process has gone, Theresa May is still viewed more favourable than Jeremy Corbyn and her potential Conservative successors.

Publié dans : Actualités & Politique
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Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor

  1. 1. 1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1 March 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. 2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2 March 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Voting Intention: March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,050 British adults 18+, 15– 19 March 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +4 38% 34% 8% 7% 4% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 36% 35% 8% 7% 4% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
  4. 4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Jun18 Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 34% GENERAL ELECTION % Mar ‘19
  5. 5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ‘19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 34% UKIP 7% GREEN 4% LIB DEM 8% GENERAL ELECTION % Mar ‘19
  6. 6. 6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 6 March 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 70% 10% 20% 42% 34% 24% DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED -5.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 +2.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -0.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -13% SWING FROM FEB 2019 NET=-50 NET=-18 NET=-75NET=-36 65% 6% 29% 11% 3% 86 %
  8. 8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?. Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Jun18 Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 2016 EU Ref % satisfied MAY 29% CORBYN 20% CABLE 24% GENERAL ELECTION March ‘19
  9. 9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NETSATISFACTION May Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  10. 10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019) Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NETSATISFACTION CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  11. 11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) Theresa May’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NETSATISFACTION MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  12. 12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 65% Dissatisfied 6% Don’t know 29% Satisfied NET = -36 Satisfaction DISSATISFIED 65% SATISFIED 29% % Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019
  13. 13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 324 Conservative supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019 March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 32% Dissatisfied 5% Don’t know 63% Satisfied NET = +31 DISSATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 63% Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters %
  14. 14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2019 September 2015 – March 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 . SATISFIED 20% DISSATISFIED 70% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = -50 Satisfaction 70% Dissatisfied 10% Don’t know 20% Satisfied % Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019
  15. 15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 262 Labour supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019 March 2019 September 2015 – March 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 . ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = +2 Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters 40% Dissatisfied 18% Don’t know 42% Satisfied SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 40% %
  16. 16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Vince Cable Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2019 September 2017 – March 2019 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 DISSATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 24% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?. NET = -18 42% Dissatisfied 34% Don’t know 24% Satisfied Satisfaction % Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019
  17. 17. 17Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 17 March 2019 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  18. 18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2019 EOI = -42 58% 20% 16% 6% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME Don’t know GET BETTER Stay the same Get worse Improve % January 2007 – March 2019 Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Mar-19 Mar ‘19
  19. 19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 NET OPTIMISM=-42 Mar2019 Mar ‘19
  20. 20. 20Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 20 March 2019 POTENTIAL PRIME MINISTERS AND CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP
  21. 21. 21Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Ministerial material? 13% 15% 19% 19% 22% 24% 21% 30% 49% 59% 53% 49% 47% 64% 67% 57% Dominic Raab Michael Gove Jeremy Hunt Amber Rudd Sajid Javid Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET -27 -46 -40 -25 -30 -34 -44 -36 Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  22. 22. 22Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Ministerial material? Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn 30% 28% 55% 44% 34% 33% 17% 23% 30% 31% 27% 0% 25% 50% 75% Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 % AGREE THERESA MAY 30% JEREMY CORBYN 21% JUL‘14 JUL’15 JUL’16 APR’18 JUL‘18 SEP‘18 MAR‘19 Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  23. 23. 23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Ministerial material? Theresa May and Conservative challengers 30% 28% 55% 44% 34% 33% 11% 13% 12% 10% 11% 15% 14% 19% 17% 32% 32% 21% 17% 25% 25% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 % AGREE THERESA MAY 30% JUL‘14 JUL’15 JUL’16 APR’18 JUL‘18 SEP‘18 MAR‘19 BORIS JOHNSON 24% AMBER RUDD 19% SAJID JAVID 22% MICHAEL GOVE 15% Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor JEREMY HUNT 19% DOMINIC RAAB 13%
  24. 24. 24Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Ministerial material? 20% 30% 31% 32% 32% 32% 60% 44% 45% 38% 58% 40% 36% 30% Dominic Raab Michael Gove Amber Rudd Boris Johnson Sajid Javid Jeremy Hunt Theresa May AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET +30 -4 -8 -26 -7 -15 -24 Among Conservative party supporters Base: 324 Conservative party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  25. 25. 25Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Ministerial material? 43% 45% 81% 81% 63% 61% 14% 16% 20% 14% 21% 22% 22% 18% 26% 47% 47% 23% 26% 31% 39% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 % AGREE THERESA MAY 60% JUL‘14 JUL’15 JUL’16 APR’18 JUL‘18 SEP‘18 MAR‘19 BORIS JOHNSON 32% AMBER RUDD 31% SAJID JAVID 32% MICHAEL GOVE 30% Among Conservative party supporters Base: 324 Conservative party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor JEREMY HUNT 32% DOMINIC RAAB 20%
  26. 26. 26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT JEREMY CORBYN HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Corbyn - Prime Ministerial material? Among Labour party supporters 26% 47% 67% 62% 57% 34% 45% 21% 32% 29% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 DISAGREE 33% JUL’15 JUL’16 APR’18 JUL‘18 SEP‘18 MAR‘19 AGREE 52% Base: 262 Labour party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  27. 27. 27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER? Conservative party leadership Base: 1,050 British adults 18+, 324 Conservative party supporters, 15-19 March 2019 POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DON’T KNOW 29% 30% 32% 9% Mar ‘19 Sep ‘18 17% 39% 36% 8% POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DON’T KNOW 16% 36% 39% 9% Mar ‘19 Sep ‘18 GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS 36% 30% 24% 9%
  28. 28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 28 March 2019 BREXIT
  29. 29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month Britain’s economy over 26% 38% 26% 27% 15% 9% 13% 11% 49% 49% 55% 59% May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018 Mar 2019 39% 55% 45% 49% 11% 11% 10% 9% 35% 24% 34% 34% May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018 Mar 2019 the next five years Britain’s economy over the next ten to twenty years NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? The impact of Brexit on the economy BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE
  30. 30. 30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ WORSE 39% BETTER 27% MAKE NO DIFFERENCE 31% 21% 18% 20% 18% 18% 36% 49% 37% 36% 43% 41% 39% 24% 40% 41% 32% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Impact of Brexit Own standards of living Mar ‘19 V V V V
  31. 31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month Britain’s ability to make 59% 59% 55% 58% 15% 16% 17% 12% 20% 21% 24% 25% May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018 Mar 2019 47% 51% 24% 20% 22% 21% Dec 2018 Mar 2019 decisions in its own best Britain’s control over immigration from the EU NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? The impact of Brexit on Britain’s sovereignty BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE interests
  32. 32. 32Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’ NOT CONFIDENT 79% CONFIDENT 18% 44% 36% 35% 37% 34% 30% 25% 28% 19% 23% 21% 51% 60% 60% 59% 63% 67% 72% 70% 78% 69% 77% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar ‘19 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?. c
  33. 33. 33Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 67% 73% 66% 67% 56% 47% 45% 34% 39% 36% 33% 26% 30% 32% 43% 51% 53% 64% 54% 62% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?. Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’, NOT CONFIDENT 60% CONFIDENT 37% Among Conservative supporters Mar ‘19
  34. 34. 34Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Labour party supporters 18+ each month 29% 33% 28% 21% 67% 63% 67% 76% July 2017 Mar 2018 Sep 2018 Mar 2019 AND IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT HE WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Confidence in Corbyn to get a good deal for Britain CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT GENERAL PUBLIC 57% 63% 59% 49% 40% 33% 39% 46% July 2017 Mar 2018 Sep 2018 Mar 2019 AMONG LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS
  35. 35. 35Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? c Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union 27% 32% 30% 9% 36% 56% 65% 85% GOOD JOB BAD JOB THE GOVERNMENT THERESA MAY THE EUROPEAN UNION YOUR LOCAL MP Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019
  36. 36. 36Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor THERESA MAY -11% -20% -16% -27% -16% 16% 9% -20% -23% -7% 26% 23% 32% 41% 67% 50% 31% 51% -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mar ‘19 DO YOU THINK XXX HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? c NOV‘16 DEC‘16 MAR‘17 JUL‘17 MAR‘18 MAR‘19 NET GOOD JOB AMONG CONSERVATIVES 19% THE GOVERNMENT AMONG CONSERVATIVES -56% THERESA MAY -35% THE GOVERNMENT -76% Base: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Conservative party supporters 18+ each month
  37. 37. 37Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 32% 16% 10% 9% 29% 3% AND HOW STRONGLY, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE A DELAY OF UP TO XXX IN BRITAIN’S DEPARTURE FROM THE EU, IF AN AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EU IS NOT REACHED BY THE 29TH OF MARCH? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor TEND TO SUPPORT Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019 Delaying Britain’s departure from the EU STRONGLY SUPPORT NEITHER SUPPORT NOR OPPOSE TEND TO OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE DON’T KNOW THREE MONTHS 24% 10% 5% 8% 50% 3% TWO YEARS 48% SUPPORT 38% OPPOSE 34% SUPPORT 58% OPPOSE
  38. 38. 38Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor * 2% 6% 10% 23% 23% 28% 32% 35% 48% . AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO BLAME? % +13 +4 +1 p +5 +1 p -7 -3 q +4 +9 - -1 -3 -1 CHANGE SINCE DEC ‘18: Position EUROPEAN UNION CONSERVATIVE MPS THE UK GOVERNMENT BREXIT CAMPAIGNERS THE LABOUR PARTY REMAIN CAMPAIGNERS OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES OTHER NO-ONE DON’T KNOW Attributing blame in the case of a no deal Brexit Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019
  39. 39. 39Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 39 October 2018 Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information

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